基于地磁场重复观测资料分析玛多M_(W)7.3地震前地磁场变化

基于玛多地震周边的地磁场重复观测资料,使用泰勒多项式空间参考场方法和自然正交分量方法分别对观测资料进行日变通化和长期变化改正,获得了玛多地震前后地磁场变化特征。通过对观测和数据处理的分析,获得了各期计算结果的误差,并基于误差对地磁场变化进行了部分修正。结果表明,玛多地震1~2年岩石圈磁场年变化会出现明显的趋势转折,变化量为5~10nT。根据速度—状态依赖的摩擦定律的地震周期分析发现,震前断层滑动量较小,因此岩石圈磁场年变化并非由地震前断层滑动引起的应力扰动产生。玛多地震前地下流体的变化产生的电磁效应更可能是产生岩石圈磁场变化的原因。

盲逆断层震后变形耦合机制研究——以2017年伊朗M_(W)7.3地震为例

震后变形是地震周期中一个重要阶段,深入研究其产生机制有助于提高对地震演化过程、断层性质及地震危险性评估的认识.2017年伊朗M_(W)7.3地震InSAR观测资料丰富,为研究扎格罗斯造山带山前褶皱带盲逆冲断层震后变形机制提供了切入点.合理详细的震源模型及高精度的形变观测是开展震后余滑或黏弹松弛研究的首要前提,本文采用多视角InSAR资料联合远场波形数据反演该地震的破裂滑动分布,并解算得到伪三维地表位移,利用InSAR时序分析提取震源区主震后一年半内变形特征,显示震源区震后形变特征与同震位移场类似,LOS向形变速率最大值约8 cm·a^(-1),震后变形预示震源区可能存在明显的震后应力调整现象.利用震后半年内形变资料约束的纯运动学余滑模型表明同时期释放能量为矩震级M_(W)6.7,进一步探讨应力驱动震后余滑及下地壳黏弹性松弛对震后变形的贡献,基于分层黏弹模型的模拟计算表明震后余滑和黏弹松弛效应的耦合模型可以更好地解释地表震后变形特征,其中震后余滑主要分布在同震破裂区的上方浅部,对主震后一年半内震后地表变形起主导作用,震源区壳下黏滞系数量级下限约为10^(19)Pa·s,震后变形对扎格罗斯褶皱带的生长有一定的促进作用,更长周期的震后变形机制研究还需长期高精度观测和顾及岩石圈流变结构的横向不均一性.

Temporal gravity changes before the 2008 Yutian Ms7.3 earthquake

Based on the data of the repeated gravity observation network in Chinese mainland since 1998, we analyzed the temporal changes of regional gravity field before the 2008 Yutian Ms7.3 earthquake. The result shows some mid-to-long term （two to ten years） changes during the earthquake＇ s preparation. Notable fea- tures are a gravity increase lasting several years and a relatively large-scaled gradient zone of gravity change, the former indicating a continuous energy accumulation and the latter a possible location of seismic rupture. These gravity changes showed a trend of increase-accelerated increase-decelerated increase, similar to that of the Tangshan Ms7.8 earthquake in 1976. The maximum accumulated gravity change related to the earthquake reached 200 × 10 -8 ms -2.

Analysis of ionospheric anomaly preceding the Mw7.3 Yutian earthquake

On February 12,2014,a large Mw7. 3 earthquake occurred in Yutian of Xijiang Province,China.We processed the global ionosphere maps provided by CODE（ the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe）and the foF2（ the critical frequency of F2-layer） data of Chongqing ionosonde station to analyze the preearthquake ionospheric anomalies. Solar activities and magnetic storm were checked by the sliding inter quartile range method to remove their effects on the ionosphere. A positive ionospheric anomaly with the large amplitude of 20 TECU was observed near the epicenter on February 3（ 10th day before the earthquake）. In addition,the foF2 at Chongqing station had an unusual increase of more than 40% on the day,which was consistent with the TEC（ Total Electron Content） anomaly. The global disturbance represents that the peak of TEC anomaly didn’t coincide with the vertical projection of epicenter. The TEC anomalous area was closer to the equator,and it mainly occurred from local time 16 ∶ 00 to 20 ∶ 00. An enhancement of TEC with the small amplitude also appeared in the magnetically conjugated region.

Preseismic deformation associated with the 2014 Ms7.3 Yutian earthquake derived from GPS data

Based on analysis of the GPS data during 1999-2007,2009-2011,and 2011-2013 mainly from the Crustal Motion Observation Network of China,we obtained the GPS horizontal velocity field,the GPS strain rate field,and the profiles across the southwestern segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault zone and its adjacent regions and identified the different characteristics of horizontal crustal deformation fields and profiles during different periods. The results show that,before the February 12,2014,Ms7. 3 Yutian earthquake,the laevorotation deformation along the southwestern segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault zone increased about 3. 3 mm /a during 2011-2013,relative to that in 2009-2011,and the GPS strain rate field distributed in the southeastern segment of the Altyn Tagh Fault during 2011-2013 increased obviously. These abnormal changes may be regarded as precursors to the Ms7. 3 Yutian earthquake.

A case-based reasoning method of recognizing liquefaction pits induced by 2021 M_(W) 7.3 Madoi earthquake

Earthquake-triggered liquefaction deformation could lead to severe infrastructure damage and associated casualties and property damage.At present,there are few studies on the rapid extraction of liquefaction pits based on high-resolution satellite images.Therefore,we provide a framework for extracting liquefaction pits based on a case-based reasoning method.Furthermore,five covariates selection methods were used to filter the 11 covariates that were generated from high-resolution satellite images and digital elevation models(DEM).The proposed method was trained with 450 typical samples which were collected based on visual interpretation,then used the trained case-based reasoning method to identify the liquefaction pits in the whole study area.The performance of the proposed methods was evaluated from three aspects,the prediction accuracies of liquefaction pits based on the validation samples by kappa index,the comparison between the pre-and post-earthquake images,the rationality of spatial distribution of liquefaction pits.The final result shows the importance of covariates ranked by different methods could be different.However,the most important of covariates is consistent.When selecting five most important covariates,the value of kappa index could be about 96%.There also exist clear differences between the pre-and post-earthquake areas that were identified as liquefaction pits.The predicted spatial distribution of liquefaction is also consistent with the formation principle of liquefaction.

滇西南1976年龙陵M_(S)7.3、M_(S)7.4双强震触发滑坡遥感解译及其构造意义

深入研究中国滇西南地区发育的龙陵-澜沧新生地震构造带对于合理划分活动地块边界及未来开展强震危险性评价工作具有重要意义。使用高分辨率卫星影像对已发生的双强震震例开展回溯研究是一种可行的技术手段。文中对震前、震后高分辨率Keyhole卫星影像进行遥感解译,结合野外验证和前人研究结果,获得了1976年M_(S)7.3、M_(S)7.4龙陵双强震触发滑坡较为完整的数据库。结果显示:1)共解译滑坡14448个,总面积为17.2km^(2),70.9%的滑坡分布在花岗岩质的岩体风化层中,单体滑坡面积集中在数百至1000m^(2)区间,多为表层风化层内的浅层滑坡,滑动距离较小;2)同震滑坡密集区与高烈度区不匹配,其空间分布显示破裂区规模约为30km,且均位于活动断裂的一侧,表明其发震构造并非为龙陵-瑞丽断裂或畹町断裂。滇西南地区共轭强震破裂可能局限了单次强震的空间规模,因此在确认未来强震危险区时应重点关注NE向与NW向构造的交会部位。

On Estimating Magnitude of a Maximum Sequent Earthquake by Viscoelastic Coulomb Stress Change and a Discussion of the Relationship between the M_S7.3 Earthquakes in Yutian 2008 and 2014

On the basis of the previous studies of the layered crustal model in the Yutian area,combined with the field GPS continuous observation data,we roughly estimate the viscous coefficient of each layer. With the viscoelastic horizontal layer model,we calculate the viscoelastic co-seismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes 2008 and 2014 respectively. Based on the Coulomb stress change,using the calculation method of "direct "aftershock frequency,we come up with the theoretical earthquake frequency directly related to the mainshock and the co-seismic Coulomb stress change in the study area. Then we put forward a method,based on the comparison of theoretical and actual earthquake frequency or the comparison between theoretical and practical earthquake frequency-distance decay curve fitting residuals,to estimate the magnitude of a maximum sequent earthquake,directly related to the mainshock co-seismic Coulomb stress change. Results calculated by different methods show that the maximum follow-up earthquake magnitude caused by the coseismic Coulomb stress change lies from M_S7. 2 to M_S7. 5 following Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2008; but that of the 2014 Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake is M_S6. 3. The former is very close to the Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquake in 2014.Because of the same magnitude,relatively close spatial distance,short time interval,the same region of the external force,the strong correlation between two seismic tectonic and a clear stress interaction,we thus consider that the two Yutian M_S7. 3 earthquakes in 2008 and 2014 constitute a pair of generalized double shock type earthquake. This is consistent with the sequence type characteristic of past "double shock"earthquakes in the region. In this paper,the influence of the magnitude lower limit and the b-value in the relationship of G-R on the results is discussed. As a result,when the viscoelastic coseismic Coulomb stress variation is determined,the lower limit of magnitude has little effect on the maximum sequent earthquake magnitude estimation,but b-value of G-R has a greater impact on the results.

Analysis on Characteristics of Focal Mechanisms for the M_S7.3 Yutian Earthquake Sequence of February 12,2014

The paper inverts the focal mechanism solutions of the Yutian M_S7. 3 main shock,foreshocks and M_S≥3. 5 aftershocks by using the CAP method,based on the broadband waveforms recorded by the Xinjiang and Tibet Digital Seismic Networks. The results show that the M_S7. 3 strong earthquake is of strike-slip type with a normal faulting component,and combined with the analysis of focal structure and the aftershock distribution,the nodal plane I with strike 241°,dip 90° and rake- 22° is considered to be the seismogenic fault plane of the main shock. The direction of P-axis for the main shock is 194°,close to the near NS direction of the principal stress P-axis of historical strong earthquakes in this region. The focal mechanism solution of the M_S5. 4 foreshock has a good consistency with that of the main shock. Among the 18 aftershocks,10 are of strike-slip type,6 are of normal faulting type and 2 are of thrust type. 70% of the aftershocks in the sequence have a focal mechanism with P-axis in the near-NS direction. The focal depths of this M_S7. 3 earthquake sequences are distributed in the range of 5km- 28 km,with the majority in the depth range of 15km- 20 km,slightly deeper than the depth of 10 km of the main shock as calculated.

Effects of the February 12,2014 M_S 7.3 Yutian Earthquake on Seismicity of the Northeastern Edge of Qinghai-Tibetan Block

First of all,using the GPS velocity field from campaign GPS measurements implemented by CMONC( C hina Crustal Movement Observation) a nd TEONC( C hina Tectonic Environment Observation Networks) u p to 2013, w e analyzed the background of regional crustal horizontal movement and deformation before the M S7. 3 Yutian,Xinjiang earthquake on February 12,2014. Then,by comparing this to the vertical movement from leveling measurements,we studied the crustal movement deformation and the state of strain accumulation on the northeastern edge of Qinghai-Tibetan block.Finally,we investigated the possible effects on the earthquake activity of the northeastern edge of Tibet from the M S7. 3 Yutian earthquake. The result indicates that,the M S7. 3Yutian earthquake occurred against the background of strong tectonic movement and intensive intracontinental crustal differential movement on the edges of tectonic blocks in western China,and also that it happened in the period of the strong tectonic stress field in Qinghai-Tibetan block and its edges. The sinistral strike-slip and stress transfer of the Yutian M S7. 3 earthquake may accelerate the rupture of fault segments with high strain accumulation at the northeastern edge of Qinghai-Tibetan block( especially in Qilian Mountain fault zone,and border area of Gansu,Qinghai and Sichuan provinces on the south of western Qinling).

Research on Co-seismic Displacement of the Yutian MS7.3 Earthquake Based on the High Frequency Data of GNSS

After the Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,the authors instantly collected 1Hz high frequency data of the 4 reference stations within 350 km around the epicenter,and calculated the GNSS data with the TRACK module. The results showed that:( 1) The co-seismic displacement of Yutian station,about 54 km from the epicenter,is the most obvious,particularly in the EW component,with a change of about 52.5 ± 11mm,which is more than three times the mean-square error of calculating precision.( 2) In the Yutian reference station,the biggest variation in the EW component appeared within 1 minute after the earthquake.( 3) The change in the NS component is not great.

Tectonic Background of the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake in 2014 and Its Relationship with the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake in 2008

The regional tectonic background and characteristics of active faults of the Yutian MS7.3earthquake on February 12,2014 are discussed in this paper.After the analysis of the epicenter area of the MS7.3 earthquake in 2014 and the focal mechanisms of the former strong earthquakes around it,the authors deduced that the seismogenic fault of the MS7.3earthquake is the east branch of the Ashikule fault.The MS7.3 earthquake in 2014 and the MS7.3 earthquake in 2008 are two strong earthquake events on the different sections of the Altun Tagh fault,where the fault behavior changes from sinistral slip to normal faulting because of the extensional tail effects in the southern end of the Altun Tagh fault.It is concluded that the two MS7.3 earthquakes have the same dynamic source,and the MS7.3earthquake in 2008 promoted the occurrence of the MS7.3 earthquake in 2014.Finally,we calculate the Coulomb stress change to the seismogenic fault of the MS7.3 earthquake in2014 from the MS7.3 earthquake in 2008 using the layered crust model.The result also shows that the MS7.3 earthquake in 2008 accelerated the occurrence of the MS7.3earthquake in 2014.

The Static Stress Triggering Effects Related to the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake

This paper calculates the static Coulomb stress changes generated by four earthquakes in the Yutian area during 2008 ~ 2014 separately,then discusses the triggering influence,their accumulated Coulomb stress changes and their influence on nearby faults.The results indicate that the M S5.5 earthquake in 2011 and the M_S7.3 earthquake in 2014 are both in the regions where the Coulomb stress change is positive,the stress changes are 0.004 MPa and 0.021 MPa, respectively, meaning they are triggered by prior earthquakes.The M S6.2 earthquake in 2012 occurred in the place where Coulomb stress change was negative,so it is postponed by the prior earthquakes.The image of Coulomb stress changes of the M S7.3 earthquake in 2014 is in accord with aftershocks( M L≥ 3.0)distribution,but some regions on the fault where the Coulomb stress change is positive have few aftershocks,and strong aftershocks may occur at these districts in future.In addition,this paper calculates the Coulomb stress change on nearby faults,and finds that the Coulomb stress changes of different elements in the GGC fault are very different,and must receive strong triggered-influence,though the result may be influenced by the input finite fault model,so there is still a large earthquake-risk.The GGN,PLC,PLW and LBW faults were also triggered by the four earthquakes occurring between 2008 ~ 2014.Their maximum Coulomb stress changes all exceed 0.002 MPa,so they also have a strong earthquake hazard.

Research on the Distribution Features of the Benioff Strain Ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt after the Two Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquakes

In view of the correlation between tectonic activity and seismicity,the strong earthquake risk in the North-South Seismic Belt aroused wide concern after the 2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake. Using the seismic catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center,the Benioff strain ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt is calculated in 30 days before and after the March 21,2008 and February 12,2014 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquakes. Results show that in a year after the 2008 Yutian M_S7.3 earthquake,M > 5. 0 earthquakes all occurred near the high strain ratio area or the junction between the low and high strain ratio areas,the activity of strong earthquakes obviously coincides with the high strain ratio area,which indicates that these areas have a higher stress level. The Yutian earthquakes promoted the release of small earthquakes in the high stress areas. This research is of certain indicating significance to the study of subsequent strong earthquakes of this region.

A Study on the Characteristics of the Yutian,Xinjiang M_S7.3 Earthquake,February 12,2014

The February 12, 2014, Ms7. 3, earthquake in Yutian, Xinjiang, China, occurred as a result of shallow strike-slip faulting in the tectonicaUy complex region of the northern Tibetan Plateau, with a depth of 17kin. This earthquake occurred several hundred kilometers north of the convergent India-Eurasia plate boundary. The epicenter location of the Yutian earthquake, 36. 1° N, 82. 5° E, is ll0km north of Yutian County, Hotan Prefecture. A large number of aftershocks from ML2. 0 to ML3. 0 occurred until 12：00 o＇clock, February 23, 2014 and the largest aftershock, Ms5. 7, occurred at 17：24 μm. , February 12, 2014. The b and h value of Yutian sequence are 0.70 and 1.29, respectively. The waiting time method reveals that the strong aftershocks above ML 4. 5 comply with a linear relationship, which is consistent with the characteristics of a mainshock-aftershock sequence. Furthermore, we calculate the source parameters and analyze the rupture process based on the empirical relationships for the Yutian earthquake, and the results indicate a frictional undershoot behavior in the dynamic source process of the Yutian earthquake, which is also in agreement with the lower and similar b values compared with the 2008 Ms 7.3 Yutian earthquake and the 2012 Ms 6. 2 Yutian earthquake.

Deformation Anomalies before the February 12,2014,M_S7.3 Yutian Earthquake

The Yutian earthquake with M_S7.3 happened on February 12,2014. The precursor monitoring ability is weak in that area. We found tendency anomalies and middle- and short-term anomalies from metal pendulum tilt measurements in Hotan seismic station before the earthquake. And we also compared the anomalies with that of the M_S7.3 Yutian earthquake on March 21,2008. The tendency anomalies measured by the metal pendulum tiltmeter appeared since 2012 as tilting eastward. While the middle- and short-term anomalies were characterized by acceleration,pause and rapid change of tilt rate in two directions. The tendency anomalies of metal pendulum tilt records are the same before the two earthquakes. They both happened in the east direction. However,there are differences in duration,characteristic and earthquake intervals for the middle- and short-term anomalies.

Analysis of Seismic Activity Characteristics before the Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake,Xinjiang on February 12,2014

This paper introduces the geological structure background around the 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake area, investigates and analyzes the regime of small earthquake activity and the characteristics of regional seismicity pattern in Xinjiang before the earthquake, and compares the characteristics of the regional seismic activity with the 2008 Yutian Ms7.3 earthquake. The results show： ① 2 ~ 3 years before the 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, Xinjiang was in a seismic active state with strong earthquake occurring successively, and before the 2008 Ms 7. 3 earthquake, Xinjiang was in the quiet state of moderate-small earthquakes with M3. 0 ~ 4. 0. ② Before this Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, the regional seismic activity showed a short-term anomaly feature, that is, seismicity of M ≥ 5. 0 earthquakes significantly increased on the Altun seismic zone and in the source area three years before the Ms7.3 earthquake, while a five year long quiescence of seismicity of M ≥4. 0 earthquakes appeared on the east of the source area in a range of about 440kin. Six months before this M7. 3 earthquake, there existed seismic gap of M3. 0 ~ 4. 0 earthquakes and near-conjugate seismic belt magnitude 3. 0 and 4. 0 in the source area. ③ The state of strong earthquake activity and the seismicity pattern of small earthquakes before this Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake were significantly different to that before the 2008 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, and this may be related to the different seismogenic environments of the two Ms7. 3 earthquakes.

Possible Thermal Brightness Temperature Anomalies Associated with the Yutian (China) M_S7.3 Earthquake on February 12,2014

In order to analyze the seismic brightness temperature anomalies associated with the Yutian earthquake which occurred at Yutian County, Xinjiang on February 12,2014, daily brightness temperature data was collected from the China Geostationary Meteorological Satellite FY-2E,for the period from May 1,2012 to April 30,2014 and the geographical extent of 30°- 45°N latitude and 70°- 95°E longitude. The continuous wavelet transform method was used to analyze the relative wavelet power spectrum( RWPS) of brightness temperature data for each pixel. And the RWPS time-spatial evolution within the analysis area was obtained. The results showed that the anomaly started to appear at the vicinity of epicentre since October 2013, and anomalous areas gradually enlarged and stretched towards to Altun fault zone and the eastern part of West Kunlun fault zone. Anomalies began to appear at fault zones at Middle Tianshan Mountains, Southern Tianshan Mountains and the western part of the West Kunlun Mountains area which is located at the western margin of Tarim basin,since November 2013. Then anomalous area further enlarged and gathered along fault zones,and eventually,anomalous belts were developed along fault zones around the Tarim basin. The anomaly area and amplitude reached their maximum in late December 2013 and early January 2014. With the impending earthquake,the anomaly area and amplitude dwindled. Anomalies at the vicinity of epicentre disappeared days before the occurrence of the main shock. However, the anomaly at Altun and Middle Tianshan areas still remained. After the main shock,the anomaly attenuated quickly and the whole anomaly disappeared in late February 2014.

Rapid Determination of the Centroid Moment Tensor of the 2014 M_S7.3 Yutian,Xinjiang Earthquake

We successfully employ an automatic centroid moment tensor(CMT) inversion system to infer the CMT solutions of the February 12,2014 MS7.3 Yutian,Xinjiang earthquake using near-field seismic waveforms(4° < △ < 12°) observed by the virtual China seismic networks,which have been recently set up.The results indicate that this event occurred on a rupture plane(strike 243°,dip 70°,and rake-18°),showing left-lateral strike-slip faulting with a minor normal-faulting component.The centroid in the horizontal direction is located nearly 13 km east of the epicenter(36.123° N,82.499° E),and the best-fitting centroid depth is around 10 km.The total scalar moment,M0,is retrieved with an average value of 3.05 × 1019N·m,corresponding to moment magnitude MW6.92.Most of the energy is released within about 14 s.Moreover,we discuss about the potential application of this system in earthquake disaster decision.

Characteristics of Seismic Sequences and Early Tendency Judgment for Yutian M_S7.3 Earthquake in 2014

The basic parameters,seismogenic structure and seismic sequences characteristics of the Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake on February 12,2014 are introduced and compared to the Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake in 2008. The results show that the MS5. 4 earthquake is regarded as an immediate foreshock of the Yutian MS7. 3 main shock. The frequency of strong aftershock sequences was low and their number declined quickly,and the maximum aftershock was a MS5. 7 earthquake. According to analysis of the historical earthquake sequence type,and parameter of h-value,b-value and energy release ratio between main shock and sequence etc.,we found the preliminary conclusion that the Yutian MS7. 3 earthquake sequence in 2014 was a foreshock-main shock-aftershock type.