The Mediating Effect of Digital Transformation on the Link Between Executive Overconfidence and Corporate Green Innovation

Green technological innovation is crucial for the manufacturing industry’s green transformation and sustainable development.This study examines the impact of executive overconfidence on corporate green innovation,focusing on the internal drivers of corporate innovation and using a sample of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed manufacturing companies from 2013 to 2020.We further examine the mediating role of digital transformation and the moderating role of external attention.The findings indicate that executive overconfidence promotes corporate green technological innovation.Overconfident executives enhance green innovation by accelerating digital transformation.Moreover,external attention from analysts and media positively moderates the relationship between executive overconfidence and corporate green innovation.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive impact of executive overconfidence on green innovation is more significant in non-state-owned enterprises,high-tech firms,and enterprises with lower pollution levels.

Network correlation between investor’s herding behavior and overconfidence behavior

It is generally accepted that herding behavior and overconfidence behavior are unrelated or even mutually exclusive.However,these behaviors can both lead to some similar market anomalies,such as excessive trading volume and volatility in the stock market.Due to the limitation of traditional time series analysis,we try to study whether there exists network relevance between the investor’s herding behavior and overconfidence behavior based on the complex network method.Since the investor’s herding behavior is based on market trends and overconfidence behavior is based on past performance,we convert the time series data of market trends into a market network and the time series data of the investor’s past judgments into an investor network.Then,we update these networks as new information arrives at the market and show the weighted in-degrees of the nodes in the market network and the investor network can represent the herding degree and the confidence degree of the investor,respectively.Using stock transaction data of Microsoft,US S&P 500 stock index,and China Hushen 300 stock index,we update the two networks and find that there exists a high similarity of network topological properties and a significant correlation of node parameter sequences between the market network and the investor network.Finally,we theoretically derive and conclude that the investor’s herding degree and confidence degree are highly related to each other when there is a clear market trend.

Overconfidence and the adoption of robo-advice:why overconfident investors drive the expansion of automated financial advice

Adaptive online platforms,powered by artificial intelligence,commonly referred to as robo-advice,steadily increase their market share.Yet these comparably new financial services are critically understudied.Little is known about why some investors adopt robo-advice for something as essential as asset allocation.The current paper tries to close this gap by shedding light on the causal effect of investor overconfidence on the propensity of using robo-advice.The study proposes a theoretical framework that combines the divergence of opinion hypothesis with consumer behavior insights and information technology diffusion research.The framework is empirically tested on the Investor Sample of the 2015 National Financial Capability Study,a subsample of 2000 US investors.The results from a series of generalized linear,structural,and semipara-metric models show that in a pre-chasm market,overconfident investors have a significantly higher propensity of adopting robo-advice.While higher financial literacy seems to decrease robo-advice uptake,unjustified confidence in one’s knowledge causally increases it.Willingness to take financial risk cannot account for the significantly increased adoption of robo-advice among overconfident investors.The findings help managers to better position robo-advice by offering behavioral insights into their user base.In addition,the results outline a managerial tool to take demand-side actions to increase the likelihood of an end-user innovation crossing the chasm.

Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior?Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach

Overconfidence behavior,one form of positive illusion,has drawn considerable attention throughout history because it is viewed as the main reason for many crises.Investors’overconfidence,which can be observed as overtrading following positive returns,may lead to inefficiencies in stock markets.To the best of our knowledge,this is the first study to examine the presence of investor overconfidence by employing an artificial intelligence technique and a nonlinear approach to impulse responses to analyze the impact of different return regimes on the overconfidence attitude.We examine whether investors in an emerging stock market(Borsa Istanbul)exhibit overconfidence behavior using a feed-forward,neural network,nonlinear Granger causality test and nonlinear impulseresponse functions based on local projections.These are the first applications in the relevant literature due to the novelty of these models in forecasting high-dimensional,multivariate time series.The results obtained from distinguishing between the different market regimes to analyze the responses of trading volume to return shocks contradict those in the literature,which is the key contribution of the study.The empirical findings imply that overconfidence behavior exhibits asymmetries in different return regimes and is persistent during the 20-day forecasting horizon.Overconfidence is more persistent in the low-than in the high-return regime.In the negative interest-rate period,a high-return regime induces overconfidence behavior,whereas in the positive interest-rate period,a low-return regime induces overconfidence behavior.Based on the empirical findings,investors should be aware that portfolio gains may result in losses depending on aggressive and excessive trading strategies,particularly in low-return regimes.

Italian Asset Managers＇ Behavior： Evidence on Overconfidence, Risk Taking and Gender

This paper offers new insights into the Italian mutual fund industry. Surveying Italian professionals, we do not only reveal typical gender differences but also detect divergence to their German counterparts. While disclosing Italian professionals＇ overly positive self-assessment in general, we find evidence for male overconfidence in particular--though without being accompanied by excessive control illusion of the own information level. Asset managers＇ risk taking reveals further differences： Italian female professionals do not only assess themselves as more risk averse than their male colleagues, they also prefer a more passive portfolio management compared to the level they are allowed to. Moreover, in a tournament scenario near the end of the investment period female asset managers do not try to become the ultimate top performer when they have outperformed their peer group so far. However, in case of underperformance, the risk of deviating from the benchmark makes especially female professionals willing to seize a chance of catching up. Overall, compared to their German counterparts, we find Italian asset managers to be slightly more risk averse. Matching bounded former results on Italian mutual funds, we discuss interdependencies as well as impact of our findings at the individual asset managers＇ level on trading activity, management style and performance.

Managerial Overconfidence and Debt Decisions

The application of behavioural theory to corporate finance is now attracting the attention of theoretical work. However, very little rigorous empirical work has been carried out to analyse the desirability of behavioural biases in relation to financing decisions. The main results argue that managerial overconfidence provides an alternative determinant of capital structure. However, many questions remain to be explored, related to overconfidence measures and positive/negative effects of managerial overconfidence. Our paper assumes that the combination of financial theory and behavioural theory leads to better explanatory power. We follow two complementary goals. Firstly, we examine the dynamic trade-off model introducing a behavioural perspective. Secondly, we propose extending the pecking order analysis to incorporate overconfidence in Shyam-Sunder and Myers＇s model. We use a sample of Tunisian firms and employ panel-data estimation procedures to account for endogeneity and spurious correlation issues. Our results confirm the assumption that manager confidence is positively related to debt level. Overconfident managers underestimate the probability of financial distress and will choose higher levels of debt than they would if they were ＂rational＂.

Research on Property Rights, Revenue Transparency and Equity Financing Costs ——Based on the Perspective of CEO Overconfidence

This paper takes the Chinese listed company with the equity refinancing qualification from 2012 to 2013 as the research object, and uses the residual revenue model to calculate the equity financing cost. This paper discusses the impact of the overconfidence of executives on the equity financing cost and its impact mechanism. The unique institutional background examines the differences in property rights characteristics. The research found that:(1) executive overconfidence has a negative impact on the cost of equity financing, executives tend to be overconfident, the higher the equity financing cost of the company;(2) the overconfidence of executives to state-owned enterprises compared to private enterprises The negative impact of financing costs is more significant;(3) in addition, this paper also examines the potential impact mechanism of executive overconfidence on the cost of equity financing. The quality of information disclosure and the risk of investor prediction have a mediating effect on the impact of executive overconfidence on equity financing costs.

基于投资者过度自信的A-B股溢价研究

主要利用投资者过度自信心理研究A-B股溢价问题。首先,建立了基于投资者过度自信的A-B股溢价模型,模型分析表明:A-B股溢价与国内有信息投资者(收到利好信息)过度自信程度正相关;然后,通过构造度量投资者过度自信程度的指标,实证检验了国内有信息投资者(收到利好信息)的过度自信程度与A-B股溢价之间存在显著的正相关关系。理论和实证研究都表明,利用投资者的过度自信心理能够部分解释A-B股溢价现象。

股权结构、管理者过度自信与企业创新绩效——来自中国A股高科技企业的经验证据

从行为金融学角度研究管理者过度自信对企业创新绩效的影响机理,分析了股权结构在管理者过度自信与公司创新绩效之间的调节作用。利用2011～2013年我国A股高科技企业的数据进行实证研究,结果表明：管理者过度自信能显著提高企业创新绩效;股权结构在管理者过度自信与企业创新绩效之间能发挥一定的调节作用。具体而言,股权集中度负向调节两者之间的关系,国有持股比例正向调节两者之间的关系,股权制衡未能对两者关系产生显著影响。

同时考虑损失厌恶和过度自信的供应链Stackelberg博弈与决策

在完全理性的供应商与具有损失厌恶和过度自信的零售商组成的供应链系统中,构建Stackelberg博弈模型,分析同时考虑损失厌恶和过度自信的供应链决策.研究表明:当仅考虑损失厌恶时,供应商决定的收益分享比率、零售商选择的销售努力水平、供应商效用和零售商效用都小于完全理性情形,且它们都随着损失厌恶增强而降低.当仅考虑过度自信时,结果正好相反,这说明损失厌恶与过度自信各自对供应链决策的单独影响是相反的.在同时考虑损失厌恶和过度自信时,收益分享比率、销售努力水平、供应商效用和零售商效用仍然都随着损失厌恶增强而降低和随着过度自信程度增强而上升,这说明损失厌恶和过度自信对供应链决策的影响是相对独立的;而且,供应商效用与零售商效用均大于仅考虑损失厌恶情形而小于仅考虑过度自信情形,当损失厌恶程度大于某临界值时零售商效用与供应商效用均小于完全理性情形,当损失厌恶程度小于某临界值时双方效用均大于完全理性情形,这说明损失厌恶和过度自信对供应链决策的作用之间存在相互影响的交叉效应.因此,损失厌恶和过度自信都是影响供应链决策的重要因素,忽略任何一种都是不完备的.

CEO过度自信、董事会特征和企业创新绩效的关系研究——来自中国A股制造业上市公司的经验证据

根据资源基础理论和代理理论,从创新投入,未控制投入的创新产出和控制投入的创新产出三个层面研究企业创新绩效,分析CEO过度自信对三个层面创新绩效的影响,以及董事会特征在上述关系中起到的调节作用。利用2007~2015年中国A股所有制造业上市公司的数据进行实证分析,结果表明,CEO过度自信与企业创新绩效之间具有正相关关系;董事会规模和CEO两职兼任增强了上述正相关关系;独立董事占比削弱了上述正相关关系;董事会流动性增强了CEO过度自信与企业创新投入之间的正相关关系。

高管的年龄异质性、过度自信与企业成长性——基于A股制造业上市企业的经验数据

本文运用了2008-2014年A股制造业上市公司的高管团队的个人背景以及公司财务方面的数据,分析了在不同产权性质下管理者年龄异质性、过度自信以及企业成长性的关系。本文的研究结果表明:国有制造业企业高管团队年龄异质性与企业成长性负相关,非国有制造业企业高管团队年龄异质性与企业成长性正相关。国有制造业企业高管团队过度自信与企业成长性负相关,非国有制造业企业高管团队过度自信与企业成长性正相关,同时管理者年龄异质性与管理者过度自信之间存在着不显著的负相关关系。结论丰富了管理者特征与企业成长性的相关研究,同时也从高层管理者的角度为我国制造业的健康发展提供了宝贵的意见。

管理者薪酬对过度自信的影响研究——基于深市A股上市公司的经验证据

文章利用2007—2010年我国深市A股上市公司中管理者持股的公司为样本,采用随机效应模型实证检验管理者薪酬对其过度自信的影响,结果发现:管理者薪酬对其过度自信具有正向促进作用。与非国有上市相比,提高国有上市公司管理者的薪酬更容易导致其过度自信。当公司所在地市场化进程不同时,市场化程度越高,管理者薪酬越高越容易导致其过度自信。

投资者过度自信与A-B股溢价的关系

主要分析不完全理性投资者的心理(过度自信)与A-B股溢价之间的关系。建立了基于投资者过度自信的A-B股价格均衡模型,模型分析表明,当投资者的过度自信程度越严重,A、B股的价格越高,但是A股价格比B股价格提升的更大,表现为A-B股的溢价越严重。通过构造度量投资者过度自信程度的指标,实证检验了国内有信息投资者的过度自信程度与A-B股溢价存在正相关的理论关系,并且实证结果表明,投资者的过度自信对溢价影响不仅与整个市场情绪有关,也与公司的特征有关。

高管过度自信、会计稳健性和投资效率——基于我国沪深A股上市公司的实证研究

以2010~2014年沪深A股为研究对象,实证检验高管过度自信、会计稳健性和投资效率的关系。研究发现:高管过度自信与非效率投资总额及投资过度显著正相关,但与投资不足的关系不显著;会计稳健性降低了公司的非效率投资、投资过度和投资不足,对高管过度自信引致的非效率投资具有一定负向调节作用,但该调节作用只在适度的会计稳健性样本组成立;会计稳健性对高管过度自信引致的非效率投资的负向调节作用在高管过度自信程度高的样本组更显著。

管理层持股、短视主义与公司成长--基于沪深A股数据的实证分析

以2012-2021年沪深A股上市公司为样本,采用有调节的中介效应模型实证检验了管理层持股、短视主义与公司成长之间的关系。研究发现:管理层持股与公司成长显著正相关,短视主义与公司成长显著负相关,三者之间的作用机理体现为显著的部分中介效应。管理层持股能够抑制短视主义,因而促进公司成长,且这一中介作用的前半路径受到管理层过度自信的反向调节,这充分表明管理层过度自信会弱化管理层持股对短视主义的抑制效果。进一步研究发现:管理层持股、短视主义与公司成长的中介作用路径在非国有公司更加显著;机构投资者持股和社会关系质量能正向调节管理层持股对公司成长的直接促进作用。

高管过度自信、内部控制与投资效率——基于中国A股上市公司数据的经验证据

本文结合行为公司金融理论和传统的财务学理论,选取2012~2016年中国A股上市公司为样本数据,研究高管过度自信、内部控制与投资效率之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)高管过度自信对投资效率有显著的负向影响,对过度投资有显著的正向影响,对投资不足无明显影响;(2)内部控制对投资效率有显著的正向影响;(3)内部控制对高管过度自信和过度投资的正相关关系有负向调节作用,对高管过度自信和投资不足的关系并无显著调节作用。上述结论从实证检验的角度为我国政府、相关监管部门及上市公司制定相关政策或经营策略提供了经验参考。

财务弹性、管理者过度自信与现金股利--基于沪深A股上市公司的实证分析

以财务弹性为出发点,通过对沪深A股非金融类上市公司实证分析财务弹性和现金股利之间的关系,结果显示财务弹性较高的企业有着更强的现金股利支付意愿,财务弹性正向影响现金股利支付水平,管理者过度自信心理特征对财务弹性和现金股利支付水平之间的关系起负向调节作用,基于最终控制人进行分组后发现,在国有控股上市公司中财务弹性和现金股利支付率之间关系增强,而在非国有上市公司中两者关系减弱。

投资者注意力与过度自信对左尾反转的增益效应——基于我国A股数据的实证研究

本文基于我国2004年12月—2019年9月沪深A股市场数据,以个股异质性波动率调整的在险价值作为左尾风险代理变量,分析我国A股市场上左尾反转或动量效应的存在性,并进一步讨论投资者注意力与过度自信水平与策略收益之间的关系。实证结果表明:我国A股市场上存在显著的左尾反转效应,即个股左尾风险与其未来中短期收益正相关;投资者注意力对左尾反转效应有显著的负向影响,投资者配置的注意力越多,反转收益越低;投资者过度自信水平对左尾反转效应有显著的正向影响,投资者过度自信程度越高,反转收益越高;投资者注意力与过度自信水平之间存在交互影响,过度自信对股票左尾反转效应的影响,会随着配置给股票注意力的增加而削弱。有限注意力的客观存在,导致投资者对信息出现非匀质化关注,使股票价格波动呈现规律性。过度自信对私人信号具有放大效应,会增强股票价格变动规律的显著性。同时,注意力的增加会纠正投资者对私人信号过度自信的行为偏差。

企业生命周期、高管过度自信与企业创新绩效——来自A股高新技术企业的经验数据

本文利用2010—2015年我国高新技术企业的数据,以企业生命周期为切入点,实证检验了不同生命周期下高管过度自信与企业创新绩效之间的关系。结果发现:处于生命周期越成熟的阶段,高管越容易过度自信。高管过度自信能提升企业创新绩效,相比于成长期和衰退期,这种提升作用在成熟期的企业中更显著。国有企业的三个生命周期阶段中高管过度自信都不能显著提升企业创新绩效,而在成熟期的非国有企业中高管过度自信能显著提升企业创新绩效。这些细化研究丰富了高管过度自信和企业创新绩效的研究以及企业生命周期理论,为处于生命周期不同阶段的企业提供了高管类型选择和创新决策上的建议。