Characteristics of Temperature Change in China over the Last 2000 years and Spatial Patterns of Dryness/Wetness during Cold and Warm Periods

This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3℃ and 0.7℃, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56°± 0.42℃（100 yr）^（-1）; however, temperatures recorded in the 20 th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD1201–70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern： dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°–30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20 th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China.

Joint Distribution of Wave Periods and Rate of Change of Wave Surface Elevation

The rate of change of wave surface elevation is of much importance in ocean engineering, especially for the determination of the limitation of wave breaking. This paper gives a kind of joint distribution of wave periods and the rate of change of wave surface elevation by means of calculation of the two-order to four-order moment of the frequency spectrum based on the linear wave theory. For the first time, the distribution density function of wave periods determined by peaks is provided, and the conclusion is drawn that the rate of change of wave surface elevation obeys the Rayleigh distribution.

Climate Change Characteristics and Return Periods of Heavy Precipitation in the Northeast Side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

[ Objective] The study aimed to discuss analyze climate change characteristics and return periods of heavy precipitation in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. [ Method] Based on the data of daily precipitation from 1943 to 2008 in 6 representative meteorological stations in Linxia located in the northeast side of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the climate change characteristics of heavy precipitation were analyzed, and the return periods of heavy precipitation were calculated by Pearson-Ill probability distribution method. [ Result] Days of heavy precipitation in Linxia region in- creased conspicuously since the 1990s. The return periods of heavy precipitation in the six stations on August 20, 2008 were consistent with the re- sults of artificial estimation. [ Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the reasonable utilization of climate resources, disas- ter prevention and rational arranqement of anricultural plantina svstems in Linxia reaion.

Numerical Study for Characteristic Change of Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation and Its Influence Mechanism during the EI Nino Period

In this paper, the relation between Asian summer monsoon circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific is investigated by using a global spectral model. This model has nine layers in the vertical and the model variables are represented in the horizontal as truncated expansions of the surface spherical harmonics with rhomboidal truncation at wave number 15. The model involves comparatively complete physical processes and parameterizations with mountains.Using the above model, two experimental schemes are designed, namely control case and anomalous sea surface temperature case. The above two schemes are respectively integrated for forty days and the simulated results are obtained from the last 30-day averaged simulations.The simulations show that positive SST anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific weakens Indian monsoon circulation,decreases precipitation in Indian sub-continent whereas it intensifies East Asian monsoon circulation and increases precipitation in East Asian area. All these results reflect the characteristics of Asian summer monsoon during the El Nino period. In this paper, SST anomalies over equatorial central-eastern Pacific have a direct influence on the intensity and position of subtropical high via the wave train over Northern Hemisphere, which is similar to that suggested by Nitta(1987) and the wave train over Southern Hemisphere has an influence on the intensity of Muscarene high and Australia high resulting in affecting cross equatorial flow. As a result, atmospheric interior heat sources and sinks are redistributed because of the change of cross equatorial flow. And the response of atmosphere to the new heat source and sink has a significant influence on Asian summer monsoon.

Changes of the Period and the Light Curves of the Contact Binary V1073 Cygni

Observational evidence of unstable behavior for the W UMa type binary system V1073 Cygni is presented in this paper. Around 1939 the period of the binary suddenly decreased by 0 580 seconds and again suddenly decreased by 0 746 seconds around 1981.Obvious variable O’ Connell effect of the light curves in V can be seen. The relation between the changes in the orbital period and variation in the O’ Connell effect and possible reasons for the unstable behavior of V1073 Cyg were discussed.

Palaeoclimatic Cycles, Global Environmental Changes and New Glacial Periods Induced by the Impact of Extraterrestrial Bodies

In terms of Earth\|Sun geometry, the Milankovitch theory has successfully explained most of the cyclic palaeoclimatic variations during the history of the Earth, especially in the Quaternary. In this paper, the authors suggest that the impact of extraterrestrial bodies on the Earth may be another mechanism to cause palaeoclimatic cycles, global environmental changes and new glacial periods. Based on geological and geochemical records in the boundary layers produced by six huge Cenozoic bolide\|impact events (65, 34, 15, 2.4, 1.1, 0.73 Ma B.P.), including those at 34, 15, 1.1 and 0.73 Ma B.P. which are represented by four famous tektite\|strewn fields, the process and mechanics of palaeoclimatic cycles and global environmental catastrophes induced by extraterrestrial impact are discussed in detail. Impact\|generated dust, soot and aerosol floating in the stratosphere could result in short\|term (<1 year), rapid drop in temperature immediately after impact. Through self\|regulation of the Earth’s climate system, the temperature at the surface slowly went up within 100a and maintained stable for a long time at 250K. If there were no other factors leading to the break\|down of the newly\|established equilibrium, a new glacial period would be initiated. Estimating from the thickness of \{δ\{\}\+\{13\}C\} and \{δ\{\}\+\{18\}O\} anomalies in sediments across the impact boundary layer and deposition rate, the duration of two stages of the palaeoclimate cycle in the form of cold weather—greenhouse effect—normal weather was 10\+4-10\+5a, respectively. The conclusion deduced from the above model is supported by palaeotemperature change recorded by oxygen isotope in sediments across the impact boundary layer.

Increased Light, Moderate, and Severe Clear-Air Turbulence in Response to Climate Change

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to strengthen the vertical wind shears at aircraft cruising altitudes within the atmospheric jet streams. Such a strengthening would increase the prevalence of the shear instabilities that generate clear-air turbulence. Climate modelling studies have indicated that the amount of moderate-or-greater clear-air turbulence on transatlantic flight routes in winter will increase significantly in future as the climate changes. However,the individual responses of light,moderate,and severe clear-air turbulence have not previously been studied,despite their importance for aircraft operations. Here,we use climate model simulations to analyse the transatlantic wintertime clear-air turbulence response to climate change in five aviation-relevant turbulence strength categories. We find that the probability distributions for an ensemble of 21 clear-air turbulence diagnostics generally gain probability in their right-hand tails when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is doubled. By converting the diagnostics into eddy dissipation rates,we find that the ensembleaverage airspace volume containing light clear-air turbulence increases by 59%(with an intra-ensemble range of 43%–68%),light-to-moderate by 75%(39%–96%),moderate by 94%(37%–118%),moderate-to-severe by 127%(30%–170%),and severe by 149%(36%–188%). These results suggest that the prevalence of transatlantic wintertime clear-air turbulence will increase significantly in all aviation-relevant strength categories as the climate changes.

Climate change during the last glacial period on the southeast margin of Badain Jaran Desert, Northwest China

Reconstruction of the desert paleoclimate is important to understand the mechanisms that triggered and/or enhanced climate change.Through optically stimulated luminescence(OSL)dating,grain size,magnetic susceptibility,X-ray powder diffraction(XRD)and geochemical indicators,we provide a welldated record of a sedimentary outcrop on the southeast margin of the Bardain Jaran Desert,Northwest China,during the last glacial period.Four Qz-OSL ages are obtained,41.0±3.4 ka,54.7±4.4 ka,59.5±5.0 ka and 66.8±5.8 ka,corresponding to the depths of 35 cm,70 cm,150 cm and 200 cm respectively.Indicators like grain size,clay content,magnetic susceptibility,XRD and geochemical index(e.g.Sr,Ba,Sr/Ca)jointly indicate abrupt climate changes at the depth of 35 cm(age,ca.41.0 ka)and200 cm(age,ca.67 ka).Namely,the 280 cm sedimentary outcrop perfectly records a warm wet climate stage,corresponding to the late Marine Isotope Stages(MIS)4 to the early MIS 3.Besides,there is a trend of grain size increase after around 40ka BP,which is most likely a signal of wind strength change.Our research supports that enhancing Siberian High pressure system during the late MIS 3played a key role in NW East Asia climate evolution.

Wavelet analysis of quasi-3-year temperature oscillations in China in last 50 years, and predicted changes in the next 20 years

The wavelet analysis method is used to analyze the annual and winter temperature data of 98 observation stations in China in eight climate zones during the last 50 years （1961-2009）. The periodicities of temperature changes are investigated, and the possible temperature change trends in China in the next 20 years （2012-2029） are also predicted. Our results show that in the inter-annual temperature variability there are pervasive quasi-3- to quasi-4-year cycles, and these cycle changes are relatively steady. The periodic characteristics of the annual temperature changes are clearly different between northern and southern China, and our period superimposition extrapolation shows that both annual and winter temperatures in China will continue to increase in the next 20 years, more so in northern China and in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau （QXP） than in the southern region, except in the southwest. If temperatures follow historic increasing linear trends, the overall temper- ature is expected to increase by 1℃ between 2010 and 2029.

Study on the Influence of Climatic Change on Pasture Growth in Inner Mongolia Grassland

Through analyzing statistically metrological observation data from 1971 to 2010 and pasture data from 1983 to 2012 at 6 animal husbandry meteorological testing stations of Inner Mongolia grassland, the conclusions were drawn. Those were that annual average temperature rose in a straight line in Inner Mongolia grassland, and the increase rates of annual average temperature in meadow steppe and typical steppe were 0.40 and 0.34 ℃/10 a respectively. Annual rainfall had 10-year cyclical characteristics, and precipitation in the 1990s was the most but reduced significantly after 2000. Climate experienced the cold wet -cold dry -warm wet -warm dry periods. Warm and dry climate made the average heights of pasture in meadow steppe and typical steppe of Inner Mongolia cut down 2.4 and 9.3 cm in nearly 12 years than that in the 1990s; the average coverage of herbage decreased by 11% and 13%; the average hay yields reduced by 1 019.8 and 671.4 kg/hm^2.

Numerical Study of Turbulent Periodic Flow and Heat Transfer in a Square Channel with Different Ribs

A numerical investigation has been carried out to examine turbulent flow and heat transfer characteristics in a three-dimensional ribbed square channels. Fluent 6.3 CFD code has been used. The governing equations are discretized by the second order upwind differencing scheme, decoupling with the SIMPLE (semi-implicit method for pressure linked equations) algorithm and are solved using a finite volume approach. The fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics are presented for the Reynolds numbers based on the channel hydraulic diameter ranging from 104 to 4 ′ 104. The effects of rib shape and orientation on heat transfer and pressure drop in the channel are investigated for six different rib configurations. Rib arrays of 45° inclined and 45° V-shaped are mounted in inline and staggered arrangements on the lower and upper walls of the channel. In addition, the performance of these ribs is also compared with the 90° transverse ribs.

Social development and living environment changes in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau and contiguous regions during the late prehistoric period

The relationship between the evolution of human societies and their living environments has been discussed intensively in recent decades.It is important to understand the patterns and mechanisms of human–environment interaction and evolution in order to cope with rapidly changing environments in the modern world.We reviewed the results of dating,archaeobotanical,and zooarchaeological studies from 139 prehistoric sites in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau(NETP)and contiguous regions(NETP-CR:i.e.,the Hexi Corridor and western margin of the Chinese Loess Plateau)and compared them with paleoenvironmental records to study variations in spatiotemporal patterns of social development in the area and their relationships with climate and vegetation changes.Our results show that hunter-gatherer groups occupied vast areas of the NETP at low intensities during^15,000–5500 BP(years before present).This was directly related to forest cover and climate change.An increase in temperature and precipitation turnover of vegetation from desert steppe to alpine meadow/subalpine shrub,and recovery of animal population on the Tibetan Plateau created more food resources and space for hunter-gatherers.Millet farmers settled extensively below 2500 m a.s.l.(meters above sea level)in the NETP-CR between^5500 and 3600 BP,and might have coexisted with hunting groups above 2500 m a.s.l.via subsistence exchange.The distribution of human settlements during that period was affected by climate change,with the relatively warm and wet climate promoting the expansion of millet agriculture to the NETP-CR during 5500–4500 BP,while climate deterioration caused humans to retreat to lower altitudes.During 3600–2200 BP,a range of livelihoods emerged in different regions of the NETPCR.This was promoted by early trans-Eurasian exchange and the development of an agro-pastoral economy that utilized cold-tolerant crops and livestock.This eventually promoted the expansion of permanent human settlements to high-altitude areas in the NETP.This study found that human societies adopted various strategies to adapt to the changing living environment throughout late prehistoric times in the NETP-CR.The results provide a long-term perspective on the trajectory of regional socio-environmental co-evolution.

Analysis on Change Tendency of the Precipitation Resource during Growth Period of the Conventional Crops in Plain Area before Taihang Mountains

[Objective] The aim was to study change tendency of the precipitation resource during growth period of the conventional crops in plain area before Taihang Mountains. [ Method] Based on daily precipitation data at Shijiazhuang meteorological station in recent 51 years, average rainfall dudng growth periods of the 9 kinds of conventional crops was obtained. Precipitation tendency dudng growth periods of the 9 kinds of conventional crops in plain area before Taihang Mountains was analyzed by Mann-Kendall nonparametric test. [ Result] Seen from rainfall during growth pedods of the different crops, rainfall was the least during the growth period of winter wheat, followed by summer corn. Rainfall during growth peri- ods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree, potato, rice and legumes was more. Under different guaranteed rates, precipitation change also had difference. Rainfall change during growth periods of the wheat and corn was bigger, and rainfall change during growth period of the rice was smaller. Change degree of the precipitation during growth periods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree and legumes was equivalent, while precipitation change during growth period of the potato was the biggest. Seen from change tendency of the precipitation during growth periods of the different crops, precipitation in the growth period of winter wheat was increasing at a speed of 0.62 mm/a. However, precipitation in growth periods of the other crops had a decreasing tendency. Precipitation in the growth periods of summer corn and legumes decreased at the same speed which was 2.11 mm/a, while precipitation in growth periods of the cotton, oil plant, vegetable, fruit tree, potato and rice decreased insignificantly. [ Con dusion] The study laid foundation for determination of the agricultural irrigation water and provided theoretical reference for regional agricultural water-saving.

Analysis of Runoff into Reservoir Change Pattern and Causes in Fenhe Reservoir

Based on the 58 years monthly flow data (from 1956 to 2013) editing by Jingle hydrological station of Fen River and Shangjinyou station, data resources are used to analyze the annual and inter-annual changes from spatial and temporal scale by statistical methods, mainly annual spatial and temporal distribution, trend of inter-annual changes, cycle and mutation changes. The reasons of runoff into reservoir changes are deeply analyzed by annual precipitation data of catchments above Fenhe Reservoir 1956 to 2013 and the land and water reservation methods which are implemented recently. It shows that there is a significant decrease of the inter-annual run-off with main and second cycle periods, 23a and 13a respectively. Furthermore, it exists mutation point between 1970 and 1971 through runoff series. As for further analysis of the causes of Fenhe Reservoir runoff changes, it illustrates that the change of precipitation is the main reason the facilitate runoff changes. Also, the land and water reservation methods which are implemented in upstream of Fenhe Reservoir increase water storage capacity of soil, showing it non-ignorable effect to runoff changes.

The change of the cationic peroxidase in the leaves at the fertile transformation period in Nongken 58s

Nongken 58s is a type of photoperiod sensitivegenie male sterile rice which gives rice to malesterility when illuminated time is longer than13.75 h/d.The photoperiod sensitive stagesare from the differentiation of primary branchprimordum(Ⅱ)in young ears to fullness ofcontents of the pollen(Ⅶ).The changes ofactivity and isoenzymes in cation peroxidase atph0toperiod sensitive stages and the relation-ship between this enzyme and feritility of rice

近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程气候特征及长期变化规律

【目的】充分认识三峡地区区域暴雨过程的气候特征及长期变化规律对于科学防汛以及合理利用水资源具有重要意义。【方法】基于三峡地区33个国家级气象观测站1961—2022年逐日降水量资料和目前重庆市气候中心业务采用的区域性暴雨过程监测指标,对三峡地区区域性暴雨过程进行客观识别,并利用多种数理统计方法分析区域性暴雨过程的气候特征和长期变化规律。【结果】结果表明:(1)三峡地区近三分之二的暴雨以区域性过程形式出现,平均每年区域性暴雨过程有8.4次,主要出现在5—9月,尤以6—7月为集中发生时段。区域性暴雨过程首次开始日期多年平均为5月8日,末次结束日期为9月17日。平均每次过程的暴雨覆盖范围为8.6站,持续时间1.3 d,平均暴雨强度为74.7 mm/d。(2)三峡地区区域性暴雨过程年频次存在2~3 a和8 a左右的变化周期,年平均区域性暴雨过程覆盖范围存在4~6 a和8~11 a周期变化。(3)近62 a三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的首次开始日期显著提前,末次结束日期无明显变化,发生期显著变长;发生频次没有明显变化趋势、平均持续时间、平均覆盖范围、平均综合强度也均没有明显变化趋势,但平均暴雨强度呈增强趋势。(4)近62 a,三峡地区区域性暴雨过程的各项指标均未发生突变现象。【结论】研究成果为三峡地区防汛减灾、水资源管理以及回应三峡工程对局地气候影响的社会关切等提供科学支撑。

基于ITHBC理论AVF肾病患者围透析期自我管理方案的构建

目的构建科学、可行的自体动静脉内瘘(AVF)肾病患者围透析期自我管理方案。方法通过文献检索,以健康行为改变整合理论(ITHBC)为理论基础初步构建AVF肾病患者围透析期自我管理方案,应用德尔菲法对24名专家进行2轮专家咨询,对各级指标进行评定与修改。结果2轮专家咨询问卷回收率均为100%(24/24),专家权威系数(Cr)分别为0.895、0.915,专家协调系数Kendall's W分别为0.153、0.221。第2轮专家意见变异系数为0.010~0.099,均小于0.250。2轮德尔菲专家咨询确定3个一级指标、10个二级指标和22个三级指标。结论基于ITHBC理论构建AVF肾病患者围透析期自我管理方案具有较好的科学性与可操作性,能够为AVF肾病患者围透析期间自我管理提供依据和指导。