The 3-Hour-Interval Prediction of Ground-Level Temperature in South Korea Using Dynamic Linear Models

The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea (38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.

Prediction of Typhoon Tracks Using Dynamic Linear Models

This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis of typhoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive model for the prediction of typhoon tracks.

Application of Auto-regressive Linear Model in Understanding the Effect of Climate on Malaria Vectors Dynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir

It is important to understand the dynamics of malaria vectors in implementing malaria control strategies. Six villages were selected from different sections in the Three Gorges Reservoir fc,r exploring the relationship between the climatic ｜：actors and its malaria vector density from 1997 to 2007 using the auto-regressive linear model regressi^n method. The result indicated that both temperature and precipitation were better modeled as quadratic rather than linearly related to the density of Anopheles sinensis.

A dynamic optimization model of an integrated coal supply chain system and its application

Various nodes,logistics,capital flows,and information flows are required to make systematic decisions concerning the operation of an integrated coal supply system. We describe a quantitative analysis of such a system. A dynamic optimization model of the supply chain is developed. It has achieved optimal system profit under conditions guaranteeing a certain level of customer satisfaction. Applying this model to coal production of the Xuzhou coal mines allows recommendations for a more systematic use of washing and processing,transportation and sale resources for commercial coal production to be made. The results show that this model,which is scientific and effective,has an important value for making reasonable decisions related to complex coal enterprises.

LVP Modeling and Dynamic Characteristics Prediction of A Hydraulic Power Unit in Deep-Sea

A hydraulic power unit （HPU） is the driving ＂heart＂ of deep-sea working equipment. It is critical to predict its dynamic performances in deep-water before being immerged in the seawater, while the experimental tests by simulating deep-sea environment have many disadvantages, such as expensive cost, long test cycles, and difficult to achieve low-temperature simulation, which is only used as a supplementary means for confirmatory experiment. This paper proposes a novel theoretical approach based on the linear varying parameters （LVP） modeling to foresee the dynamic performances of the driving unit. Firstly, based on the varying environment features, dynamic expressions of the compressibility and viscosity of hydranlic oil are derived to reveal the fluid performances changing. Secondly, models of hydraulic system and electrical system are accomplished respectively through studying the control process and energy transfer, and then LVP models of the pressure and flow rate control is obtained through the electro-hydraulic models integration. Thirdly, dynamic characteristics of HPU are obtained by the model simulating within bounded closed sets of varying parameters. Finally, the developed HPU is tested in a deep-sea imitating hull, and the experimental results are well consistent with the theoretical analysis outcomes, which clearly declare that the LVP modeling is a rational way to foresee dynamic performances of HPU. The research approach and model analysis results can be applied to the predictions of working properties and product designs for other deep-sea hydraulic pump.

SOME GENERAL THEOREMS AND GENERALIZED AND PIECEWISE GENERALIZED VARIATIONAL PRINCIPLES FOR LINEAR ELASTODYNAMICS

From the concept of four-dimensional space and under the four kinds of time limit conditions, some general theorems for elastodynamics are developed, such as the principle of possible work action, the virtual displacement principle, the virtual stress-momentum principle, the reciprocal theorems and the related theorems of time terminal conditions derived from it. The variational principles of potential energy action and complementary energy action, the H-W principles, the H-R principles and the constitutive variational principles for elastodynamics are obtained. Hamilton's principle, Toupin's work and the formulations of Ref. [5], [17]-[24] may be regarded as some special cases of the general principles given in the paper. By considering three cases: piecewise space-time domain, piecewise space domain, piecewise time domain, the piecewise variational principles including the potential, the complementary and the mixed energy action fashions are given. Finally, the general formulation of piecewise variational principles is derived. If the time dimension is not considered, the formulations obtained in the paper will become the corresponding ones for elastostatics.

Love Dynamical Models with Delay

A sufficient condition for the asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point of a system, which appears as a model for couple of the love affair with time delay, is obtained by applying the technique of linearized method and Hopf- bifurcation.

Establishing an Initial Electron Beam Model with Monte Carlo Simulation for a Single 6 MV X-ray Medical Linac Based on Particle Dynamics Characteristics

Objective:In this study,we try to establish an initial electron beam model by combining Monte Carlo simulation method with particle dynamic calculation(TRSV)for the single 6 MV X-ray accelerating waveguide of BJ-6 medical linac.Methods and Materials:1.We adapted the treatment head configuration of BJ-6 medical linac made by Beijing Medical Equipment Institute(BMEI)as the radiation system for this study.2.Use particle dynamics calculation code called TRSV to drive out the initial electron beam parameters of the energy spectrum,the spatial intensity distribution,and the beam incidence angle.3.Analyze the 6 MV X-ray beam characteristics of PDDc,OARc in a water phantom by using Monte Carlo simulation(BEAMnrc,DOSXYZnrc)for a preset of the initial electron beam parameters which have been determined by TRSV,do the comparisons of the measured results of PDDm,OARm in a real water phantom,and then use the deviations of calculated and measured results to slightly modify the initial electron beam model back and forth until the deviations meet the error less than 2%.Results:The deviations between the Monte Carlo simulation results of percentage depth doses at PDDc and off-axis ratios OARc and the measured results of PDDm and OARm in a water phantom were within 2%.Conclusion:When doing the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the parameters of an initial electron beam for a particular medical linac like BJ-6,modifying some parameters based on the particle dynamics calculation code would give some more reasonable and more acceptable results.

Vector tracking loops in GNSS receivers for dynamic weak signals

Vehicle positioning with the global navigation satellite system （GNSS） in urban environments faces two problems which are attenuation and dynamic. For traditional GNSS receivers hardly able to track dynamic weak signals, the coupling between all visible satellite signals is ignored in the absence of navigation state feedback, and thermal noise error and dynamic stress threshold are contradictory due to non-coherent discriminators. The vector delay/frequency locked loop （VDFLL） with navigation state feedback and the joint vector tracking loop （JVTL） with coherent discriminator which is a synchronization parameter tracking loop based on maximum likelihood estimation （MLE） are proposed to improve the tracking sensitivity of GNSS receiver in dynamic weak signal environments. A joint vector position tracking loop （JVPTL） directly tracking user position and velocity is proposed to further improve tracking sensitivity. The coherent navigation parameter discriminator of JVPTL, being able to ease the contradiction between thermal noise error and dynamic stress threshold, is based on MLE according to the navigation parameter based linear model of received baseband signals. Simulation results show that JVPTL, which combines the advantages of both VDFLL and JVTL, performs better than both VDFLL and JVTL in dynamic weak signal environments.

Linear-in-Parameter Models Based on Parsimonious Genetic Programming Algorithm and Its Application to Aero-Engine Start Modeling

A novel Parsimonious Genetic Programming （PGP） algorithm together with a novel aero-engine optimum data-driven dynamic start process model based on PGP is proposed. In application of this method, first, the traditional Genetic Programming（GP） is used to generate the nonlinear input-output models that are represented in a binary tree structure; then, the Orthogonal Least Squares algorithm （OLS） is used to estimate the contribution of the branches of the tree （refer to basic function term that cannot be decomposed anymore according to special rule） to the accuracy of the model, which contributes to eliminate complex redundant subtrees and enhance GP＇s convergence speed; and finally, a simple, reliable and exact linear-in-parameter nonlinear model via GP evolution is obtained. The real aero-engine start process test data simulation and the comparisons with Support Vector Machines （SVM） validate that the proposed method can generate more applicable, interpretable models and achieve comparable, even superior results to SVM.

Simple Linear Model of Tumor Growth in a Changing Environment

In an environment that is neither static nor in equilibrium, but is dynamic and changing, the kinetics of the reactions that cause the growth of a tumor, which depend on the state of the evolving environment, cannot be parametrized in terms of constant rates. We propose a simple model for describing the growth on an untreated tumor in such environments, which is characterized by a minimal number of parameters and is generalizable to include the effects of various types of therapies. In the simplest version that we consider here, it consists of a linear equation with a time-dependent growth rate, which we interpret as the coupling of the system with a dynamic environment. A complete solution is given in terms of the integral of the growth rate. The essential features of the general solution are illustrated with a few examples, and comparison is made with the models that have been proposed to describe recent data.

Indirect Vector Control of Linear Induction Motors Using Space Vector Pulse Width Modulation

Vector control schemes have recently been used to drive linear induction motors(LIM)in high-performance applications.This trend promotes the development of precise and efficient control schemes for individual motors.This research aims to present a novel framework for speed and thrust force control of LIM using space vector pulse width modulation(SVPWM)inverters.The framework under consideration is developed in four stages.To begin,MATLAB Simulink was used to develop a detailed mathematical and electromechanical dynamicmodel.The research presents a modified SVPWM inverter control scheme.By tuning the proportional-integral(PI)controller with a transfer function,optimized values for the PI controller are derived.All the subsystems mentioned above are integrated to create a robust simulation of the LIM’s precise speed and thrust force control scheme.The reference speed values were chosen to evaluate the performance of the respective system,and the developed system’s response was verified using various data sets.For the low-speed range,a reference value of 10m/s is used,while a reference value of 100 m/s is used for the high-speed range.The speed output response indicates that themotor reached reference speed in amatter of seconds,as the delay time is between 8 and 10 s.The maximum amplitude of thrust achieved is less than 400N,demonstrating the controller’s capability to control a high-speed LIM with minimal thrust ripple.Due to the controlled speed range,the developed system is highly recommended for low-speed and high-speed and heavy-duty traction applications.

Model⁃Free Predictive Control for a Kind of High Order Nonlinear Systems

For a type of high⁃order discrete⁃time nonlinear systems(HDNS)whose system models are undefined,a model⁃free predictive control(MFPC)algorithm is proposed in this paper.At first,an estimation model is given by the improved projection algorithm to approach the controlled nonlinear system.Then,on the basis of the estimation model,a predictive controller is designed by solving the finite time domain rolling optimization quadratic function,and the controller’s explicit analytic solution is also obtained.Furthermore,the closed⁃loop system's stability can be ensured.Finally,the results of simulation reveal that the presented control strategy has a faster convergence speed as well as more stable dynamic property compared with the model⁃free sliding mode control(MFSC).

Incremental Influence Maximization for Dynamic Social Networks

Influence maximization is one fundamental and important problem to identify a set of most influential individuals to develop effective viral marketing strategies in social network. Most existing studies mainly focus on designing efficient algorithms or heuristics to find Top-K influential individuals for static network. However, when the network is evolving over time, the static algorithms have to be re-executed which will incur tremendous execution time. In this paper, an incremental algorithm DIM is proposed which can efficiently identify the Top-K influential individuals in dynamic social network based on the previous information instead of calculating from scratch. DIM is designed for Linear Threshold Model and it consists of two phases: initial seeding and seeds updating. In order to further reduce the running time, two pruning strategies are designed for the seeds updating phase. We carried out extensive experiments on real dynamic social network and the experimental results demonstrate that our algorithms could achieve good performance in terms of influence spread and significantly outperform those traditional static algorithms with respect to running time.

THE DISCRETE DYNAMICS FOR COMPETITIVE POPULATIONS OF LOTKA-VOLTERRA TYPE

The discrete dynamics for competition populations of Lotka-Volterra type modeled as N1(t+1)=N1(t) exp[r1(1-N1-b12N2)], N2(t+1)=N2(t) exp[r2(1-N2-b21N1)] is considered in the paper. In the case of non-persistence the attractive behavior of model has been discussed. Especially, there are two attractive sets when h_(ij)>1, and the attractive behaviors are more complicated than that of the corresponding cofitinuous model. The attracted regions are given. We prove that the model is also persistent in the degenerate case of b_(ij)=1. In the persistence case of b_(ij)<1, the existence and uniqueness for two-period points of the model are studied at r1=r2. The condition for the multi-pair of two-period points is indicated and their influences on population dynamical behaviors are shown.

无模型自适应滑模控制的微波加热过程温度控制

微波加热模型具有无限维、非线性和时变等特点,导致控制器难于设计和实现。针对此问题,提出了一种适用于微波加热过程的无模型自适应滑模控制方法。首先,对微波加热过程传热数学模型进行分析,建立了微波加热过程输入功率与温度之间的全格式动态线性化数据模型。然后,根据该数据模型设计了无模型自适应滑模控制器,并给出了数据模型中相关未知时变参数和未知干扰的估计算法。最后,利用COMSOL和MATLAB进行仿真,仿真结果验证了所提控制方法的有效性。

带分段限位刚度的双向限位单层隔振系统冲击动力学理论模型研究

[目的]针对在冲击激励作用下带限位器的隔振系统刚度呈非线性变化的问题,开展冲击动力学理论模型及其抗冲击性能研究。[方法]首先,利用分段线性等效思想,建立带分段线性刚度限位器的双向限位单层隔振系统冲击动力学理论模型;然后,利用解析法对理论模型进行解析求解,并与不同冲击工况下的有限元法冲击响应进行对比验证。[结果]在不同的冲击工况下,动力学理论模型的解析解与有限元数值解具有高度的一致性。[结论]通过对比分析,验证了带分段限位刚度的双向限位单层隔振系统冲击动力学理论模型及求解方法的准确性,可为带限位器隔振系统的工作原理与性能特点研究提供理论依据。

基于LabVIEW的无模型自适应控制算法实现与应用

为了有效地将无模型自适应控制算法(MFAC)应用于实际场景,该文研究LabVIEW开发环境中实现基于紧格式动态线性化的无模型自适应控制(MFAC-CFDL)。实验结果表明,对于相同的被控对象,LabVIEW实现与Matlab的仿真运行结果一致,证明该方法准确性。进一步与传统的PID控制方法相比较,MFAC-CFDL显示出更强的鲁棒性,并能保证闭环系统的稳定性以及输出误差跟踪的收敛性,通过实验说明该方法工程实践应用有效性和可行性。

基于力学机理的贝叶斯动态线性岩质边坡变形预测模型研究

考虑岩质边坡变形的力学机理,将边坡变形分解为弹塑性损伤变形、粘弹性变形、周期波动及观测误差等分量,以Bayesian动态线性模型理论为基础,建立了基于力学机理的边坡变形动态演化预测模型。模型以边坡岩体力学参数为系统控制变量,应用Bayesian推断,通过观测数据及相关信息,估计其动态演化规律,并以此预测边坡变形。通过对某水电站边坡位移监测数据分析表明:监测点处边坡变形主要为弹塑性损伤蠕变,监测初期,岩体迅速损伤,变形15天后进入加速蠕变阶段,与现场巡查结果一致。

爆炸荷载线性强化抗力模型梁构件动力系数研究

目前梁构件抗爆设计动力系数计算常采用理想弹塑性抗力模型,制约着塑性强化抗力构件的精细化抗爆设计。为解决线性强化抗力类型梁构件的爆炸作用动力系数计算问题,由抗力强化系数和阻尼比数值大小关系,分三种情况推导了柔性和刚性两类构件关于延性比的动力系数解析解。有限元分析及规范对比算例表明,本文推导理论公式精度较高,与抗爆设计规范公式计算结果趋势相似;延性比为1时,抗力强化系数与动力系数无关;延性比大于1且抗力强化系数小于0.01时,可忽略抗力强化系数的影响;延性比大于2时,需考虑阻尼参数后完成抗爆设计分析;延性比大于3时且抗力强化系数大于0.1时,线性强化抗力模型具有较好经济效益。