Abrupt change of winter temperature over the Mongolian Plateau during 1961-2017

Studying the abrupt change of winter temperature(ACWT)over the Mongolian Plateau(MP,including Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and State of Mongolia)is of great significance for understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and the mechanism of global climate change.Monthly temperature data during 1961–2017was collected,and the abrupt change point was determined by the Mann–Kendall test and sliding ttest,to analyze the characteristics and causes of ACWT.The results showed that(a)The winter temperature has rapidly increased with a trend of 0.41℃/10a,which was significantly higher than that of the rest area of Chinese mainland,indicating that climate change in the MP was more sensitive to global warming.(b)The abrupt change point occurred in 1988,with temperature of-15.5℃and-14.1℃before and after abrupt change,respectively.The ACWT in 50°N was 1–3 years later than that in 40°N,and the isotherms of different temperatures moved northward by 10–200 km,especially-16℃isotherms moved approximately 200 km northward after 1988.(c)The Arctic Oscillation(AO)and Mongolian High(MH)anomaly affects winter temperature over the MP.When the AO is unusually strong,the MH and East Asian winter monsoon are weak,and southerly winds prevail in most regions,which is not conducive to the cold air developing southward,leading to higher winter temperature in the MP.Overwise,abnormally northerly winds prevail and temperature is low.Meanwhile,the abrupt change time of AO occurred in 1987 before winter temperature.It shows that the AO indirectly causes winter temperatures to rise by influencing the MH and is also the main driving factor of ACWT.

Trends and abrupt changes in surface vapor content over Tarim Basin during the last 50 years

The surface vapor content has a close correlation with the generation of precipitation. Based on the atmospheric circulation data and surface vapor content data from 37 weather stations across the Tarim Basin dur- ing 1961-2010, the paper analyzed the vapor variation trend, period, abrupt changes and their causes. The results show that the increase trend of surface vapor content over the Tarim Basin mostly conforms with the average trend coefficient of 0.48. There were 3 centers displaying a trend of high vapor increase and 3 centers displaying a low vapor increase. These centers were distributed in strips and blocks across the basin from northeast to southwest. Notable inter-decadal variations in annual and seasonal vapor contents occurred in the Tarim Basin during the 50 years of the study period, with more vapor after the mid-1980s and less vapor in the 1960s and the 1970s. The significant increase in vapor content in the 50 year period occurred mostly in the 1980s and the 1990s. The in- creasing trend across the four seasons was strongest in summer, reaching 0.43, and weakest in spring. Great variations existed between the spring trend and the annual, summer, autumn and winter trends. During the 50-year study period, there are distinguishable periods of 4-6 years and 8-10 years in which the annual and seasonal vapor contents varied alternately between low and high concentrations. The annual vapor content and that of the four individual seasons all changed abruptly in about the mid-1980s （a〈0.05）. The west wind circulation, Tibetan Plateau circulation and the annual mean temperatures of the Tarim Basin are the main factors that influenced the surface vapor content over the study area, of which the Tibetan Plateau circulation may be the most important one.

Abrupt changes of radiolarian fauna at 600 and 120 ka B. P. in the southern South China Sea and their paleoceanographic implications

Abrupt changes in radiolarian composition are discovered over the last 600 and 120 ka B. P. based on quantitative analyses of radiolarians in ~ 17957 - 2 of the southern South China Sea. The distinct changes at 600 ka B. P. could correspond to the onset of the 100 ka cycle during the glacial and interglacial periods. This abrupt change in the 100 ka cyclicity at 600 ka B. P. occurred also in the magnetic susceptibility signal that is obtained from and paleosol sequences of the China Loss Plateau. The larger amplitude and stronger cyclicity in the susceptibility signal after 600 ka B. P. reflect the prominent change in the intensity of the monsoon, induced by an enhancement of the momsoon circula- tion. Stronger seasonality during the glacial period in the South China Sea, resulted from strengthening of winter monsoon, might lead to the changes in the radiolarian composition at 600 and 120 ka B. P. It can be suggested that only species adapted to a broader temperature range might have been able to live in this environment. Therefore, the abrupt changes in radiolarian composition at 600 and 120 ka B. P. could be attributed to the stronger so differences between summer and winter that were caused by the striking change in the intensity of the monsoon circulation.

THE ABRUPT CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE NUMBER OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN THE MID-1990s

Based on the CMA tropical cyclone(TC) best track data as well as the reanalysis datasets from the NCEP/NCAR and NOAA, the variation characteristics of TC number from 1949 to 2013 over the western North Pacific(including the South China Sea) are examined. Notably, the time series of TC number exhibits a significant abrupt change from more to less around 1995. Comparative analysis indicates that the environmental factors necessary to TC formation also change significantly around the mid-1990 s. After 1995, accompanying with anomalous warm sea surface temperature(SST) in western equatorial Pacific, a La Nia-like pattern in tropical Pacific appears obviously. However,compared with the period before 1995, the vertical upward movement decreases, vertical shear of tropospheric zonal wind increases, and sea level pressure(SLP) rises, all of which are unfavorable to TC formation and work together to make TC number reduce markedly after 1995. Furthermore, when the typical interannual more and less TCs years are selected in the two separate stages before and after 1995, the relative importance of oceanic and atmospheric environments in interannual TC generation is also investigated respectively. The results imply that the SST over the tropical Pacific exerts relatively important influence on TC formation before 1995 whereas the atmospheric circulation plays a more prominent role in the generation of TC after 1995.

A GCM Study on the Mechanism of Seasonal Abrupt Changes

In this paper the observational studies and some related dynamical and numerical researches on seasonal abrupt changes were reviewed first. Then a speculation that the seasonal variation of insolation and the nonlinear dynamic interaction account for the abrupt changes was put forward and was asserted by a set of GCM sensitivity experiments. The results show that the abrupt changes would exist in case that all the earth surface was grass land and there was no topography. However, many factors may have influences on the abrupt changes. Hence this phenomenon is quite complicated and needs further investigations.

A study of the early warning signals of abrupt change in the Pacific decadal oscillation

In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent(LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature(SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change(1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST,along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO.

Streamflow abrupt change and the driving factors in glacierized basins of Tarim Basin,Northwest China

A climate transition towards warm-wet conditions in Northwest China has drawn much attention.With continuous climate change and universal glacier degradation,increasing water-related hazards and vulnerability have become one of the important problems facing the Tarim Basin.However,the impacts of the climate transition on streamflow abrupt change and extreme hydrological events were less discussed,especially in glacial basins.In the present study,the discharge datasets in four glacial basins of Tarim Basin from 1979 to 2018 were constructed using the GRU-GSWAT+model first.The differences in streamflow characteristics,the shift of hydrological extreme pattern,and potential changes of the controlling factors before and after the abrupt changes were investigated.The results indicated that the abrupt change point(ACP)in streamflow occurred in 2000 in the Qarqan River Basin,2002 in the Weigan River Basin,and 1994 in the Aksu River Basin and the Yarkant River Basin.A general decrease in streamflow before the ACP has shifted to a notable upward trend in the Qarqan River Basin and the Aksu River Basin,while minor upward fluctuations were observed in other basins.Moreover,the hydrological characteristics in extreme events vary dramatically before and after the ACPs,characterized by a pronouncing shift from drought-dominant pattern to wet events dominated pattern.The driven climate factors have been altered after the ACPs with notable spatial heterogeneity,in which temperature remained as the dominant role in meltwater-dominated basins while the influence of precipitation has increased after the ACPs,whereas the sensitivity of temperature on streamflow change has been enhanced in basins dominated by precipitation such as the Qarqan River Basin.Owing to the evident warming-wetting trend and glacier compensation effect,both the inter-annual and intra-annual streamflow fluctuations can be efficiently smoothed in basins with a high glacier area ratio(GAR).These findings provide a further understanding of the abrupt change in streamflow under the exacerbated climate and glacier change in mountainous arid regions.

The decadal abrupt change in the global land vapor pressure deficit

The vapor pressure deficit(VPD) is an important variable used to characterize atmospheric aridity.This paper analyses the spatial and temporal characteristics of the decadal abrupt change(DAC) in the global land VPD after 1980 using monthly scale data from the Climatic Research Unit.The results show that 60.5% of the global land area underwent a significantly increased decadal abrupt change(IDAC) in the VPD,and the persistent IDAC of the VPD was obvious in the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia,Africa and parts of South America but not in central North America or Western Siberia.From 1980 to 2020,most regions experienced no more than two persistent IDACs,while more than two significant increases occurred mainly around the Mediterranean and in eastern South America.The persistent IDAC occurred relatively early in the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia,Africa,and eastern South America and after 2000 in the high latitude regions,Eastern Europe,and near the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The regions where the persistent IDAC lasted longer than 10 years mainly included North Africa,West Asia,eastern South America,and parts of East Asia,indicating that the persistent increases in atmospheric aridity in these regions were obvious.In general,the persistent IDAC that began in 1993–2000 was significantly more than that occurred in other periods and lasted longer than that before 1990,suggesting that the land area experiencing an abrupt increase has an expansion after the 1990s and that the role of water limitation in this persistent IDAC in Central Asia and most of China strengthened.In addition,the VPD showed another large-scale persistent IDAC over the global land region in 2009,indicating that global atmospheric aridity intensified over the last decade.At the same time,in a few global regions,the VPD has exhibited decreased decadal abrupt changes(DDACs) with durations shorter than 2 years.

Change Point Analysis to Detect the Effect of Pruning Severity on Tree Growth

The effect of pruning severity on tree growth was analyzed by change point detection using segmented regression. The present study applied this analysis to a well-known published data set including diameter growth response, tree age, pruning severity and pretreatment crown size. First, multiple regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of tree age, pruning severity and pretreatment crown size on diameter growth response. Next, segmented regression analysis was performed to assess the effect of pruning severity on diameter growth response. The results of the multiple regression showed that diameter growth response was significantly influenced by pruning severity and pretreatment crown size. The results of the segmented regression showed that in the whole data set, an abrupt change toward a decrease in diameter growth response was detected at 25% of the live crown removed. However, in the group of fully crowned and open-grown, diameter growth response continuously decreased with increasing pruning severity with no significant abrupt change, whereas in the group of 70% - 90% live crown, diameter growth response did not significantly decrease up to the break point (53% crown removed) and then abruptly decreased. This may be the first study to show the numerical evaluation of the effect of pruning severity on tree growth by change point analysis.

Eternal Climate Change Patterns and the Causes and Countermeasures of Global Climate Change

It is an objective fact that the weather is unpredictable.Even the famous meteorologist,Academician Chu Ko Chen,has only a partial understanding of the changing laws of wind and rain.Even though ancient people summarized the 24 solar terms by observing the annual activities of the sun for a long time,because they ignored the impact of the activities of the moon on the Earth’s climate change on a small scale,the 24 solar terms they summarized often could not accurately predict the change of the Earth’s climate.Therefore,the author studied the influence of lunar activities on the Earth’s climate change,finds out the law of the influence of lunar activities on the Earth’s climate change on a small scale,and summarizes the eternal climate change pattern determined by the activities of the sun and the moon.In addition,the author also reveals the causes and countermeasures of global warming and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather as well as environmental change.

Climate Changes and Sustainability

Climate change is the phrase used to describe long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Changes in the atmosphere and their interactions with diverse geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic variables are the main contributors to this cyclical adjustment of the Earth’s climate. Such changes may be induced purposefully, because of burning fossil fuels, clearing forests, and raising animals, or they may be natural, brought on by significant volcanic eruptions or variations in the sun’s activity. By significantly increasing the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, this heightens the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. This work includes several additional theoretical and practical explanations of sustainable development. The theoretical work encompasses hundreds of researches that identify requirements for how development routes might satisfy sustainable development (SD) criteria using economic theory, complex systems approach, ecological science, and other techniques. The agreements made by the Parties in various nations across the world will consider a wide range of perspectives about what would be considered undesirable effects on the environment, the climate system, sustainability, economic growth, or food production.

Long-Term Trend and Abrupt Change for Major Climate Variables in the Upper Yellow River Basin

On the basis of the mean air temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, and pan evaporation from 23 meteorological stations in the upper Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2001, the feasibility of using hypothesis test techniques to detect the long-term trend for major climate variables has been investigated. Parametric tests are limited by the assumptions such as the normality and constant variance of the error terms. Nonparametric tests have not these additional assumptions and are better adapted to the trend test for hydro-meteorological time series. The possible trends of annual and monthly climatic time series are detected by using a non-parametric method and the abrupt changes have been examined in terms of 5-yr moving averaged seasonal and annual series by using moving T-test （MTT） method, Yamamoto method, and Mann-Kendall method. The results show that the annual mean temperature has increased by 0.8℃ in the upper Yellow River Basin during the past 42 years. The warmest center was located in the northern part of the basin. The nonlinear tendency for annual precipitation was negative during the same period. The declining center for annual precipitation was located in the eastern part and the center of the basin. The variation of annual precipitation in the upper Yellow River Basin during the past 42 years exhibited an increasing tendency from 1972 to 1989 and a decreasing tendency from 1990 to 2001. The nonlinear tendencies for annual sunshine duration and pan evaporation were also negative. They have decreased by 125.6 h and 161.3 mm during the past 42 years, respectively. The test for abrupt changes by using MTT method shows that an abrupt warming occurred in the late 1980s. An abrupt change of the annual mean precipitation occurred in the middle 1980s and an abrupt change of the mean sunshine duration took place in the early 1980s. For the annual mean pan evaporation, two abrupt changes took place in the 1980s and the early 1990s. The test results of the Yamamoto method show that the abrupt changes mostly occurred in the 1980s, and two acute abrupt changes were tested for the spring pan evaporation in 1981 and for the annual mean temperature in 1985. According to the Mann-Kendall method, the abrupt changes of the temperature mainly occurred in the 1990s, the pan evaporation abrupt changes mostly occurred in the 1960s, and the abrupt changes of the sunshine duration primarily took place in the 1980s. Although the results obtained by using three methods are different, it is undoubted that jumps have indeed occurred in the last four decades.

Variation and abrupt change of climate in Ili River Basin, Xinjiang

In this paper, the monthly precipitation and temperature data collected at 7 stations in the Ili River Basin from 1961 to 2007 were analyzed by means of simple regression analysis, running mean, db6 wavelet function and Mann-Kendall test. This study revealed the characteristics of climate change and abrupt change points of precipitation and temperature during different time scales in the Ili River Basin within the past 50 years, The results showed that the precipitation increased from the mid-1980s until 2000 and has continued to increase at a smaller magnitude since 2000. Over the studied period, the precipitation increased significantly during the summer and winter months. The temperature increased greatly in the late 1980s, and has continued to show an increasing trend from the year 2000 to present, The temperature increases were most significant during the summer, autumn and winter months. In terms of different geographies, the temperature increase was significant during the winter in the plains and hilly regions; the increase was also significant during autumn in the inter- montane basins. The climate change trends in the Ili River Basin were consistent with the changing trends of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the plateau monsoon.

THE DETECTION OF CLIMATE ABRUPT CHANGE WITH MANN-KENDALL RANK STATISTICS

The characteristics of Mann-Kendall Rank Statistics and its applications in detecting abrupt change of climate have been described.At the same time,a new method is put forward to detect the abrupt change in variance.

ABRUPT CHANGE IN ELEMENTS AROUND 1998 SCS SUMMER MONSOON ESTABLISHMENT WITH ANALYSIS OF ITS CHARACTERISTIC PROCESS

The latest dataset from the SCS(South China Sea)Monsoon Experiment is used to investigate the features of abrupt change in some meteorological elements before,during and after the summer monsoon's establishment in 1998 and explore its onset characteristic process.We have arrived at a preliminary conclusion that the 1998 Asian summer monsoon is established first in the SCS as early as May 23,which is representative of the earliest indicator of the conversion from a winter into a summer monsoon situation in Asia;the continued retreat eastward of the western Pacific subtropical high from the SCS region has direct effect on the SCS summer monsoon establishment because the withdrawal favors the release of unstable energy,responsible for the sudden onset of the monsoon.Our tentative investigation indicates that the eastward extension of the westerly and rainfall band from the equatorial Indian Ocean into the Indo-China Peninsula and the southward spreading of an active South-China stationary front,acting as the interaction between mid and low latitude systems,are likely to be the characteristic events contributing to the subtropical high's eastward retreating and the summer monsoon's onset over the SCS.

Evolving Perspectives on Abrupt Seasonal Changes of the General Circulation

Professor Duzheng YE（Tu-cheng YEH） was decades ahead of his time in proposing a model experiment to investigate whether abrupt seasonal changes of the general circulation can arise through circulation feedbacks alone, unrelated to underlying inhomogeneities at the lower boundary. Here, we introduce Professor YEH＇s ideas during the 1950 s and 1960 s on the general circulation and summarize the results and suggestions of Yeh et al.（1959） on abrupt seasonal changes. We then review recent advances in understanding abrupt seasonal changes arising from model experiments like those proposed by Yeh et al.（1959）. The model experiments show that circulation feedbacks can indeed give rise to abrupt seasonal transitions.In these transitions, large-scale eddies that originate in midlatitudes and interact with the zonal mean flow and meridional overturning circulations in the tropics play central roles.

ON ABRUPT CHANGES IN THE GENERAL CIRCULATION OVER ASIAN LOW LATITUDES AROUND ESTABLISHING PERIOD OF ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON

In this paper the abrupt changes of the general circulation over the Asian tropical monsoon area during the period of April through June are studied statistically using the 15-year mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data of 1982-1996.Results show that over the regions of Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea,the abrupt changes in the thickness (averaged temperature) between 500 and 200 hPa levels,the winds at 850 and 200 hPa and the out-going longwave radiation occur in the 4th pentad of May significantly.The quantity of net radiative heating (QRT) at the top of the atmosphere experiences earlier abrupt changes in mid-April and early May.In addition,the circulation abrupt changes occur generally ten days or two weeks later over the Indian monsoon region than over the South China Sea,except for QRT.It usually takes a shorter time period to complete the circulation abrupt changes over the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea than over Indian monsoon region,with the exception of the high level wind.

Abrupt Climate Change around 4 ka BP:Role of the Thermohaline Circulation as Indicated by a GCM Experiment

A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant temperature drop and an aridiflcation occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support this dedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia has been attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was also found in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the cold phase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment of a GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop in temperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia and a significant reduction of precipitation in East Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Peninsula, and the Yellow River Valley. This seems to support the idea that coldness and aridification at ca. 4.0 ka BP was caused by the weakening of the THC.

Abrupt Climate Changes of Holocene

This paper is a review of studies of abrupt climate changes(ACCs) during the Holocene published during the past ten years.North Atlantic cold events are indicators of ACCs.As indicated by North Atlantic ice-rafted debris(IRD),there were nine confirmed cold events during the Holocene,occurring at 11.1 kyr,10.3 kyr,9.4 kyr,8.1 kyr,5.9 kyr,4.2 kyr,2.8 kyr,1.4 kyr,and 0.4 kyr respectively according to most representative results from Bond et al.(1997).However,the identification of chronology has been made with some uncertainties.Considerable climatic proxy data have shown that,during the cold events,substantial climate abnormalities have occurred widely across the globe,particularly in the areas surrounding the North Atlantic.These abnormalities were in the form of high-latitude cold in the both hemispheres,expansion of the Westerlies to low latitudes,drought in the monsoon regions,recession of summer monsoons,and intensification of the winter monsoons.Studies have indicated that the four ACCs occurring in the early Holocene may be related to freshwater pulses from ice melting in the northern part of the North Atlantic,and the other five ACCs that occurred during the middle and late Holocene may be related to the decreased solar activity.

Detection and attribution of abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years

Based on physical backgrounds, the four time series of the Guliya （Tibetan plateau） ice core （GIC） 5180, and three natural factors, i.e. the rotation rate of earth, sunspots, and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） signals, are decomposed into two hierarchies, i.e. more and less than 10-year hierarchies respectively, and then the running t-test is used to reanalyse the data before and after filtering with the purpose of investigating the contribution of natural factors to the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. The results show that the GIC 5180 evolved with a quasi-period of 7-9 years, and the abrupt climate changes in the early 1960s and in the period from the end of the 1970s to the beginning of the 1980s resulted from the joint effect of the two hierarchies, in other words, the two interdecadal abrupt changes of climate in the last one hundred years were global. The interannual variations of ENSO and sunspots were the important triggering factors for the abrupt climate changes in the last one hundred years. At the same time, the method of Information Transfer （IT） is employed to estimate the contributions of ENSO signals and sunspots activities to the abrupt climate changes, and it is found that the contribution of the interannual variation of ENSO signals is relatively large.