Based on the research and the division of the active tectonic blocks and their boundaries on the Chinese mainland, the feature of the large earthquake activities on the 24 boundaries between the 6 active tectonic bloc...Based on the research and the division of the active tectonic blocks and their boundaries on the Chinese mainland, the feature of the large earthquake activities on the 24 boundaries between the 6 active tectonic block regions (grade Ⅰ) and the 22 active tectonic blocks (grade Ⅱ) are studied. The seismicity levels on the active tectonic block boundaries are discussed considering the large earthquake frequency and the released strain energy in unit distance and time. The theoretic maximal magnitude and the recurrence period of each boundary are then calculated from the G-R relation. By comparing this with the actual earthquake records, it is found that the intensities of the earthquake deduced from the seismic activity parameter (a/b) on the main active boundaries on the Chinese mainland are consistent with that of the natural earthquakes. Meanwhile, an inverse relation is found between the recurrence periods of large earthquakes and the tectonic motion rate on the boundaries. These results show that the a, b values of each boundary obtained in this paper are valuable. In addition, the present seismic activities and hazards of these boundaries are also probed into with the historical data and their elapsed time on each boundary based on the hypothesis that the large earthquakes satisfy Poisson distribution.展开更多
Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry...Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk of active tectonic block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the analysis on the tendency of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic block boundary from three aspects respectively,including the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the probability method based on the log-normal distribution function,and variation of b value.The estimation of strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic block boundary is done based on the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the cumulative probability and conditional probability,and the decrease of the b value.Finally,according to the results of analyses on the above three aspects,the potential strong earthquake areas in the forthcoming 5 years in the Chinese mainland are discussed.展开更多
基金The work was supported bythe public welfare programofthe Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2004DIA3J010)the special preparatoryresearch of national keyfun-damental research project (2002CCD01700)the Young Scientists Funds of Institute of Earthquake Science , CEA(QN200401) .
文摘Based on the research and the division of the active tectonic blocks and their boundaries on the Chinese mainland, the feature of the large earthquake activities on the 24 boundaries between the 6 active tectonic block regions (grade Ⅰ) and the 22 active tectonic blocks (grade Ⅱ) are studied. The seismicity levels on the active tectonic block boundaries are discussed considering the large earthquake frequency and the released strain energy in unit distance and time. The theoretic maximal magnitude and the recurrence period of each boundary are then calculated from the G-R relation. By comparing this with the actual earthquake records, it is found that the intensities of the earthquake deduced from the seismic activity parameter (a/b) on the main active boundaries on the Chinese mainland are consistent with that of the natural earthquakes. Meanwhile, an inverse relation is found between the recurrence periods of large earthquakes and the tectonic motion rate on the boundaries. These results show that the a, b values of each boundary obtained in this paper are valuable. In addition, the present seismic activities and hazards of these boundaries are also probed into with the historical data and their elapsed time on each boundary based on the hypothesis that the large earthquakes satisfy Poisson distribution.
基金sponsored by the Special Basic Scientific Research Program of Institute of Earthquake Science(02092425),China Earthquake Administration
文摘Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk of active tectonic block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the analysis on the tendency of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic block boundary from three aspects respectively,including the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the probability method based on the log-normal distribution function,and variation of b value.The estimation of strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic block boundary is done based on the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the cumulative probability and conditional probability,and the decrease of the b value.Finally,according to the results of analyses on the above three aspects,the potential strong earthquake areas in the forthcoming 5 years in the Chinese mainland are discussed.
