Analytic Hierarchy Process for Technological Risks in the Process of Innovative Drug Development in China

Objective To identify the critical risks in the process of innovative drug research and development,and to provide reference for improving the efficiency of innovative drug development and risk control in China.Methods Expert investigation and analytic hierarchy process were used to determine the weights of different risks.Results and Conclusion The research and analysis results showed that the risks at different stages of development had different effects on the success rate of drug development,among which the risk at the drug discovery stage influenced the most.In the drug discovery stage,inappropriate target selection had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development.The lack of appropriate cell tissue or animal models had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from the discovery of a compound to the application for clinical trials.The difference in changes between nonclinical and clinical studies had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from early clinical studies to pivotal clinical studies.Incorrect dose selection had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from pivotal clinical studies to marketing authorization applications.The biggest impact from the marketing authorization application to the approval stage was inadequate communication with regulators.After investigating the weight of risk factors in the process of innovative drug development based on scientific methods,a new perspective for the risk control of new drug development and improving the research and development efficiency is provided.

Assessment and Application of Beach Quality Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process in Yangkou Beach, Qingdao

The whole-beach quality assessment is the basis of building and preserving beautiful beaches.The beach quality assessment index system and assessment standard have been established based on the attributes of beaches(including the width,slope,landform,and types),sorting coefficient,and softness degree of surface sediment.The assessment weight of each index for quality evaluation was analyzed using the analytic hierarchy process,and comprehensive scores of selected beach profiles were calculated in accordance with the light assessment standard.A beach quality evaluation model based on index weight and scores was established in this paper.The factors of 12 profiles of Yangkou Beach in Qingdao City were surveyed to carry out a quality assessment,and the comprehensive scores of each profile were calculated in accordance with the evaluation model.The results showed that the quality of Yangkou Beach can be divided into four ratings:excellent,good,medium,and poor.The excellent-quality area includes a wide and flat dry beach zone and soft,flat,and clean intertidal and subtidal zones covered with well-sorted fine sand,and leisure sports,such as volleyball,running,and swimming,are suitable for tourists.The good-quality area features a slightly narrow and dry beach zone,moderately soft and uneven intertidal and subtidal zones covered with fine sand and a small tidal gully,and a small amount of foreign matter;leisure sports,such as walking and running,are suitable for tourists.This study recommends the building of fixed drainage ditches or underground culverts to reduce the tidal gully.The medium-quality area consisted of a narrow and dry beach zone,moderately soft and uneven intertidal and subtidal zones covered by poorly sorted medium sand,a tide ditch,and a small amount of foreign matter.In this area,walking is suitable for tourists.Sand should be supplemented in the intertidal zone.The poor-quality area contained a very narrow and dry beach zone covered with poor-sorted gravel,a very chaotic intertidal zone with a considerable amount of foreign matters,such as bricks and rocks,wide tidal ditches,and an uneven subtidal zone with some reefs;leisure sports are unsuitable here.Thus,foreign matter and reefs should be removed,and the dry beach zone should be supplemented with sand.Therefore,the beach quality assessment is a very useful tool for building beautiful beaches.

Analytic Hierarchy Process for Evaluating Flipped Classroom Learning

In reality,the flipped classroom has gained popularity as a modern way of structuring teaching,where lectures move from in-class procedures to digitally-based assignments,freeing up the debate,and practice exercises class time.Therefore,it is essential to implement and analyze a way of teaching that will improve student performance.The paper aims to develop a model of the method of teaching science in Iraqi schools,and to assess whether teaching flipped classroom affects the achievement,motivation,and creative thinking of students by using the methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision Making(MCDM)in the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP).The AHP approach includes several steps,including setting assessment criteria and their weights,and by assessing the methodology of the flipped classroom as compared to the conventional cognitive learning process.An experiment was carried out in Iraqi secondary schools to examine the attitude of the students towards the subject of Chemistry.The findings have indicated that the students and teachers favored flipped classroom learning more than conventional cognitive learning.The study took the following parameters compared to the traditional approach:teaching techniques,learning flexibility,teaching aids effectiveness,student participation and working environment.This paper indicates that the teachers in Iraqi schools will be able to improve and do more preparation to shift towards flipped learning in the classroom.

GIS Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping with Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in District Ghizer, Gilgit Baltistan Pakistan

District Ghizer is a rugged mountainous territory which experiences several landslides each year. There are 16 major landslide areas and 53 villages that are at high risk to hazards. Keeping in view the severity of natural hazards, the present study was designed to generate landslide susceptibility map based on twelve causative factors viz., slope, aspect, elevation, drainage network, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), lithological units, fault lines, rainfall, road network, land cover and soil texture. Soil texture was determined by particle size analysis and data for other factors were acquired from freely available sources. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to identify major landslide causative factors in the district Ghizer. Further, a temporal assessment from 1999 till 2015 was generated to assess the impact of land cover change on landslides. It indicated that the barren soil/ exposed rocks and glaciers have reduced while the vegetation and water classes have shown increment. The total area that lies in moderate to very high landslide susceptible zones was 74.38%, while slope is the main landslide causative factor in the district Ghizer. Validation of the susceptibility map showed 88.1% of the landslides in the study area had occurred in the moderate to very high susceptible zones.

基于AWAHP的调度员疲劳致因研究

为进一步保障铁路运营安全,调研分析铁路列车调度员疲劳因素,首先,针对铁路调度员工作内容的特点,在查阅相关文献、咨询调度专家、人因工程专家的基础上,建立列车调度员疲劳致因评价指标体系,该指标体系包括工作内容、轮岗安排、人员素质、外界因素4个一级指标和18个二级指标;其次,采用自适应加权的层次分析法(AWAHP)计算不同专家自身评价的权重,并求得最终指标的加权权重;最后,以某铁路局调度中心为例,运用AWAHP综合评价调度员疲劳致因指标的权重。结果表明:应急突发处置、作业时间段、持续作业时间、线路繁忙程度、工作复杂程度是影响调度员疲劳的显著因素,有效识别铁路列车调度员疲劳的关键因素,并针对关键因素进行分析与对策建议。

Quality Evaluation of Threshing and Redrying Process Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

Improving the stability of the homogenization process to achieve the homogeneity of tobacco products is one of important targets for the redrying industry.According to the specification for threshing and redrying process,a total of 14 indicators in three categories that affect the quality of the threshing and redrying process were selected.Using analytic hierarchy process,combined with expert experiences,a judgment matrix was constructed to conduct consistency test.The weights of indices in production were obtained.This will help in evaluating the actual production quality,finding the weak links of process and adjusting the parameters of the corresponding links in a targeted manner,thereby improving the quality of production process.

组合赋权法在卷烟机综合性能评价中应用

【目的】客观准确地评价卷烟机设备性能,从质量水平、消耗水平和效能水平3个维度出发,构建设备综合性能评价指标体系和组合赋权评价模型。【方法】利用最大熵原理给出最优组合系数和方案评价计算步骤。开展Topsis方法、层次分析法、熵值法和组合赋权法在卷烟机设备综合性能评价的实例分析和比较工作。【结果】4种方法具有显著正相关关系,评价结果满足一致性。组合赋权法与其他评价方法相比具有最优组合系数和误差平方和小优势。

基于改进方法的承德地表水环境质量评价

为客观反映地表水水质状况,采用层次分析法和熵权法组合赋权以及加权平均综合评价原则改进模糊综合评价法,并与单因子评价法、内梅罗指数法、传统模糊综合评价法进行比较,评价承德地区地表水环境质量。结果表明:2021年承德地区地表水水质有明显的时空差异性,除7—9月的部分断面水质为较差外,其余断面水质均在Ⅰ~Ⅲ类;影响承德地区地表水水质的主要因子为COD_(Mn)和TP;单因子评价法和内梅罗指数法无法反映整体水质状况,改进的模糊综合评价法相较于传统模糊综合评价法兼顾了各污染因子间相互作用,并弱化了个别水质指标对评价结果的影响,且能够对同一类别水质进行排序,更适用于承德地区地表水环境质量评价。

基于正交试验的粒子群优化算法对火焰原子吸收光谱法分析金元素参数的优化

国内新一轮战略找矿行动全面启动,金矿产资源以其独特的稀有性和战略性具有特殊意义,其分析检测技术直接影响金元素的准确测试。以矿石中金元素为研究对象,采用正交试验设计方案对实验要素中的王水浓度、振荡时间和硫脲浓度进行方法测试,测定结果相对误差为量化指标;按照层次分析法(AHP)中确定要素指标、建立矩阵、一致性判断步骤计算要素权重为(0.252,0.159,0.589),通过客观赋权(CRITIC)法计算正交试验数据的对比强度和冲突性,计算要素权重为(0.452,0.172,0.377),提出基于AHP-CRITIC混合加权算法对要素权重综合分析,其结果为(0.314,0.075,0.611);利用粒子群算法构建粒子多维空间,通过粒子的速度和方向属性迭代位置设计算法流程图,在迭代过程中结合混合加权算法结果通过线性递减的方式校正惯性权重,优化粒子在迭代初期和末期的学习因子,结合正交试验结果利用粒子群算法建立目标适应度函数,改进算法流程,应用MATLAB软件仿真模拟粒子群迭代过程,从全局各位置和方向逐渐向最优组合收敛,得到优化后的粒子群算法寻找原子吸收光谱法分析金元素的最佳条件参数为王水浓度10.62%、振荡时间32.8 min、硫脲浓度9.5 g·L^(-1)。粒子群优化算法验证结果表明,在分析条件最优化参数下对金标准分析物质GAu-15a、GAu-16b、GAu-17b、GAu-18b、GAu-19b、GAu-22a进行11次平行性试验测试,计算其平均值、相对误差和相对标准偏差指标,均满足《地质矿产实验室测试质量管理规范》,表明基于正交试验的粒子群优化算法对于原子吸收光谱法分析金元素参数的优化问题科学可行,验证了该优化算法的正确性和稳定性,对国内新一轮战略找矿事业提供新的研究思路。该方法提出混合加权算法结合进化计算技术对多目标参数寻求最优解,有望拓展于分析实验室其他领域的测试环境,更展望应用于寻求参数优化方向的科学研究中。

基于层次分析灰色定权聚类的煤层气开发甜点预测方法——以柿庄北区块为例

随着煤层气产业的发展以及非常规油气勘探开发一体化的要求,当前煤层气的勘查评价工作逐渐由勘探选区向开发甜点选区推进。然而,受限于勘探开发阶段或资料占有程度,当前多数的选区评价体系对煤储层的可改性和煤层气的可采性考虑不足,在指导开发区井位优选或加密井方面效果不佳。基于沁水盆地柿庄北区块100余口煤层气参数井和开发井资料,分析区内3号煤层煤层气开发的资源条件、储层可改造性和煤层气可采性,采用层次分析和灰色定权聚类方法构建评价模型,评价了煤层气开发甜点区,为区内新井和加密井的部署提供依据。评价模型以煤层含气量、煤厚反映煤层气资源条件;综合考虑地应力环境和岩石力学性质,构建储层综合可改造性参数,评价储层可改造性;使用原始结构煤和碎裂煤占比、临储比和储层原始渗透率反映煤层气的可采性。每个参数采用word聚类方法分级,每个点位(每口井)计算出综合优度并排序,最终划分出煤层气开发甜点区。评价结果表明,研究区中部综合优度大于65的地区为进一步开展开发工作的甜点区。

50个不同品种大花绣球在南宁的引种适应性综合评价

为筛选出适宜南宁种植的绣球优良品种,基于层次分析法,对从云南、江苏等地引进的50个大花绣球品种的适应性、观赏期特征、形态特征等进行综合评价。结果表明:‘佳澄’‘灵感’‘太阳神殿’‘花手鞠’‘艾薇塔’‘无尽夏’‘纱织小姐’‘大叶绣球’8个品种为Ⅰ级(>5分),综合表现最好,适宜南宁地区栽培应用,为大花绣球在南宁的园林应用提供了理论依据。

采用云重心评判法的港口船舶溢油综合应急能力评价

为突破单环节评价港口船舶溢油应急能力的局限性,合理配置资源,采用云重心评判法全环节评估港口船舶溢油综合应急能力,面向应急准备、预警、行动、恢复全环节,参照人-机-环境-管理系统理论和国际国内规定,建立综合应急能力评价指标体系;针对传统评价指标因素未涉及模糊性和随机性的问题,用加权偏离度确定定性指标与定量数值间的转化关系;利用层次分析法(AHP)优化评价意见,弥补评价样本欠充分带来的精度缺陷;最后,以上海港为例,对船舶溢油综合应急能力评价作实证研究。结果表明:云重心评判法能合理评价港口船舶溢油综合应急能力,为健全和完备应急能力提供理论依据,为港口船舶溢油综合应急能力评价提供了一种新思路。

基于TFN-AHP熵权的铁钻工工业设计方案评价

针对铁钻工工业设计方案评价综合性强、存在一定主观性、评价影响因素多的问题,提出一种基于三角模糊数层次分析法和熵权法主、客观方法相结合的铁钻工方案评价模型。该模型在层次分析法框架下,根据专家意见构建铁钻工工业设计方案评价指标体系,划分4项1级指标和12项2级指标,以模糊决策矩阵为评价信息载体,引入三角模糊数优化传统层次分析法不能准确表征带有模糊不确定性特征的评价信息的问题,并使用客观方法熵权法组合赋权确定综合权重。将此评价模型运用于实际铁钻工设计项目方案评价,将评价结果与相关传统评价法进行对比,并将筛选出来的方案进行深入优化设计,证明了评价模型的有效性。研究结果能够有效辅助企业进行铁钻工工业设计方案决策。

多因素下风力发电机组系统可靠性分配方法的研究

针对目前可靠性分配结果较为主观的问题,以串联系统的可靠性分配方法为基础,提出了一种基于改进模糊层次分析法的可靠性分配方法。采用三标度法对多个系统可靠性影响因素进行专家评判,通过模糊层次分析法初步确定可靠性分配权重,然后对分配权重初值进行熵权法处理,建立综合分配权重计算模型,最终确定各子系统的可靠性分配权重,进而实现对机械系统可靠度分配模型的建立。以风力发电机组系统为例,将该方法应用在风力发电机组可靠性分配中。通过改进模糊层次分析法与传统的模糊层次分析法以及其它方法对该风力发电机组系统的可靠性分配结果,进行对比分析。结果表明:该方法不仅有效;而且相比于文献中的分配结果有所降低,更符合机组的实际运行情况,验证了该方法的合理性。

基于层次分析法的社区韧性评估模型实证分析

基于扬州市城区的社区现状,运用层次分析法将采集的数据分为5个指标层与19个准则层形成社区韧性评价指标体系,构建完成扬州市社区韧性层次结构评估模型。通过构建判断矩阵对指标层到准则层、准则层到指标层的影响元素进行权重计算,并做一致性检验,找出决定社区韧性强弱的关键元素。结果表明,影响扬州市社区韧性的主要因素为环境设施、社区居民、社区经济、社区管理与信息交流,两个代表社区的韧性评估可为扬州市各级政府部门制定提升社区韧性的个性化方案提供依据。

考虑洪涝灾害风险的县域应急避难场所选址模型

为提升应急避难场所在灾害管理过程中的服务水平,从洪涝灾害的视角出发,选取致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承载体脆弱性、防灾减灾能力4个指标,采用层次分析法(AHP)-熵权法模型,识别出洪涝灾害风险的空间分布,并将其风险值作为权重引入最小化未覆盖风险,同时,结合最小化加权疏散距离、最小化可达性差异,从公平性、效率性、均衡性视角,构建多目标避难场所选址模型;采用改进的非支配排序遗传算法Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ)求解模型,并以莆田市仙游县现有避难场所布局为例,验证模型。结果表明:对比现有的避难场所布局,优化后的布局方案中总疏散距离、未覆盖风险值及可达性差异性系数分别平均降低35.90%、61.47%、33.62%。

高校大学生实验室安全意识评价模型的构建

为减少实验室安全事故的发生和提高大学生的实验室安全意识,设计了实验室安全意识影响因素调查问卷和大学生实验室安全意识评价调查问卷,利用层次分析法—熵权法(AHP-EWM)主客观相结合的方法建立高校大学生实验室安全意识评价体系。通过主成分分析法(PCA)处理,再选取累计贡献率超过95%的评价指标进行布谷鸟搜索(Cuckoo Search, CS),最后结合混合优化支持向量机(SVM)建立PCA-CS-SVM大学生实验室安全意识评价模型。验证结果表明,与PCA-LS-SVM和PCA-GA-SVM模型相比,PCA-CS-SVM模型的预测值与实际值的误差较小且评价等级与实际值保持一致,具有较高的准确性和可靠性,可用于高校大学生实验室安全意识评价。

中国科学仪器上市企业科技创新能力综合评价

从创新投入、创新环境、创新产出、创新影响4个方面构建科学仪器企业科技创新能力评价指标体系,采用层次分析法、熵权法组合赋权,通过TOPSIS-障碍度模型对科学仪器企业的科技创新能力进行综合评价分析,以42家中国科学仪器上市企业为样本进行实证研究。研究发现目前制约我国科学仪器科技创新能力发展的最主要因素是产学研合作、产品与技术国际专利布局、研发投入等方面存在的问题。鉴于此,应加强以企业为主体的产学研用合作协同创新模式,持续加大研发投入力度,重视技术、软件的开发及知识产权保护等,优化国际市场布局,为科学仪器企业科技创新发展赋能。

考虑多影响因素的渔船单船捕捞能力评估方法

针对以往海洋机动渔船捕捞能力评估研究中考虑影响因素较少,对各影响因素的主观权重值和客观权重值综合分析不足,不能给出渔船单船捕捞能力量化值等问题,该研究提出了考虑多影响因素的渔船单船捕捞能力评估模型。首先,考虑多种影响渔船捕捞能力的因素,建立单船捕捞能力评估指标体系,将其分为可量化指标和不可量化指标,并初步制定了不可量化指标评估标准。其次,利用专家、渔民调查问卷中的数据,运用层次分析法计算各指标主观权重值,结果表明各指标权重依次为:捕捞装备(0.108)、功率(0.094)、拖网(0.074)、作业时长(0.071)、总吨(0.049)、探鱼仪器(0.047)、刺网(0.040)、船长(0.032)、张网(0.028)、围网(0.024)、钓业(0.021)、作业环境(0.019)、钢质材质(0.019)、罩网(0.017)、玻璃钢材质(0.016)、船龄(0.013)、木制材质(0.012);渔具相关指标权重依次为:网具主尺寸(0.402)、网具结构(0.149)、装配技术(0.093)、制造材料(0.051)。最后,为兼顾主客观权重优点,基于加法合成法、博弈论法、最小鉴别信息法对各指标权重值进行组合计算,以获得目标权重值,并根据某省渔船数据对建立的模型进行验证分析,通过Spearman等级相关系数法计算捕捞能力评估值与实际渔获量之间的等级相关系数,结果表明基于博弈论法得到的结果相关性最高,相关系数为0.937,证实了组合权重值和评估模型的科学性和合理性。研究结果可为渔业管理部门制定科学合理的渔业资源调控政策提供依据。