A Comparison of Spillover Effects before, during and after the 2008 Financial Crisis

This paper applies graphical modelling to the S & P 500, Nikkei 225 and FTSE 100 stock market indices to trace the spillover of returns and volatility between these three major world stock market indices before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis. We find that the depth of market integration changed significantly between the pre-crisis period and the crisis and post-crisis period. Graphical models of both return and volatility spillovers are presented for each period. We conclude that graphical models are a useful tool in the analysis of multivariate time series where tracing the flow of causality is important.

Forecast of steel cord demand after the financial crisis

To analyze the production and marketing of China automobile in Year 2009,and also the development of China automobile and steel cord in those 11 years.The single-element regression mathematics model was set up to analyze the steel cord demand and automobile production.It predicted that automobile production would up to 15 170 000,16 690 000 and 18 360 000 respectively from 2010 to 2012,with the confidence as of 95%,the steel cord consumption in those three years will be 1 180 000 - 1 370 000 t, 1 320 000 - 1 520 000 t and 1 470 000 - 1 680 000 t.As to the policy of China stimulation,The role of Chinese tire has converted from the export-oriented to domestic consumer smoothly,so the effect of US special protectionist tariffs is limited in China.

Analysis of the financial crisis after the era of Chinese-style shadow banking and regulatory proposals

In 2007, the U.S. subprime crisis -induced global financial crisis swept across the world rapidly, triggering a reflection of Governments on financial regulatory philosophy and systems, it also brought the shadow banking finance in front of the majority of people, it has become the focus of attention. Various management measures have been taken around the shadow banking, and it has brought great volatility to currency and financial markets, and it also highlights the plight of Chinese shadow banking supervision. Therefore, this article briefly analyzes the mechanism of the Financial Times in the Chinese style shadow banking, and makes several regulatory proposals, avoiding low risk of shadow banking at the greatest degree.

Deep Learning for Financial Time Series Prediction:A State-of-the-Art Review of Standalone and HybridModels

Financial time series prediction,whether for classification or regression,has been a heated research topic over the last decade.While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results,deep learning has largely contributed to the elevation of the prediction performance.Currently,the most up-to-date review of advanced machine learning techniques for financial time series prediction is still lacking,making it challenging for finance domain experts and relevant practitioners to determine which model potentially performs better,what techniques and components are involved,and how themodel can be designed and implemented.This review article provides an overview of techniques,components and frameworks for financial time series prediction,with an emphasis on state-of-the-art deep learning models in the literature from2015 to 2023,including standalonemodels like convolutional neural networks(CNN)that are capable of extracting spatial dependencies within data,and long short-term memory(LSTM)that is designed for handling temporal dependencies;and hybrid models integrating CNN,LSTM,attention mechanism(AM)and other techniques.For illustration and comparison purposes,models proposed in recent studies are mapped to relevant elements of a generalized framework comprised of input,output,feature extraction,prediction,and related processes.Among the state-of-the-artmodels,hybrid models like CNNLSTMand CNN-LSTM-AM in general have been reported superior in performance to stand-alone models like the CNN-only model.Some remaining challenges have been discussed,including non-friendliness for finance domain experts,delayed prediction,domain knowledge negligence,lack of standards,and inability of real-time and highfrequency predictions.The principal contributions of this paper are to provide a one-stop guide for both academia and industry to review,compare and summarize technologies and recent advances in this area,to facilitate smooth and informed implementation,and to highlight future research directions.

Global Financial Crisis and Accounting Rules： The Implications of the New Exposure Draft （ED） Financial Instruments： Expected Credit Losses on the Evaluation of Banking Company Loans

During the financial crisis, the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments was identified as a weakness in existing incurred loss model of impairment stated by International Accounting Standards （IAS） 39, because it is believed that this delay might generate pro-cyclical effects. In response to the recommendations of G20, Financial Crisis Advisory Group （FCAG）, and other international bodies, the International Accounting Standards Board （IASB） has undertaken, since 2009, as a part of the project to replace IAS 39, a project （partially shared with Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB）） aimed at introducing an expected loss model of impairment. Within the scope of this subset project, the IASB has previously issued two exposure documents proposing models to account for expected credit losses： an exposure draft （ED） Financial Instrument： Amortized Cost and Impairment, published in November 2009, and a supplementary document （SD） Financial Instrument： Impairment, published jointly with the FASB in January 2011. However, neither of the two proposals received strong support from interested parties. Recently, the IASB, after the FASB＇s decision to withdraw from the joint project and to develop a separate expected credit loss model based on a single measurement approach consisting in the sole recognition of lifetime expected credit losses, published a third proposal--Ahe so-called expected credit losses model （ED/2013/3 Financial Instruments： Expected Credit Losses）.

Reflection and Enlightenment on the 10th Anniversary of the International Financial Crisis

In 2008, the US subprime mortgage crisis ignited the international financial crisis which caused a big shock, leading to the great recession and triggering a series of economic, social, and political crises that had a profound impact on the world economy and international politics. Under the pressure of the big crisis, the countries concerned have strengthened financial supervision, and the international community is committed to global governance. However, the corresponding measures are just stirring the hot soup to stop it from boiling. As the main culprit of the financial monopoly is capital, its strength and power have been strengthened instead of being weakened. Greed and speculation have been continuously strengthened instead of being contained. In this way, it is very likely that the measures to solve the old crisis will be the very cause of a new crisis.

The Effect of the 2007/2008 Financial Crisis on Enterprise Risk Management Disclosure of Top US Banks

We document the effect of the 2007/2008 financial crisis on the volume and the quality of enterprise risk management （ERM） disclosure in the annual reports of the largest US banks, and analyze its determinants. Using a content analysis approach of the annual reports form 10-K for the years 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, we find that the ERM disclosure is significantly and positively associated with the crisis, bank size, board independence, duality and significantly and negatively associated with profitability, leverage, and board size. This paper seeks to fill a gap in the literature by investigating the effect of the crisis on ERM disclosure in the US banking sector context, and gives an insight into the factors affecting risk disclosure practices during the financial crisis.

Reflection on the Key Features and Causes of the Current "Global Financial Crisis"

The current financial crisis is an inevitable result of the financial system accommodating a new banking business model, which endeavors to benefit, with increased innovation in financial products, from the incentives and distortions created by the global macro liquidity policies. The failure of regulatory and supervising institutions to keep up with those innovations has undoubtedly compounded the magnitude of the debt and credit crisis.

Analysis of the Impact of Asian Financial Crisis on Shanghai's Utilization of Foregin Direct Investment

The Asian financial crisis has increasingly shown its in-fluence on the utilization of foreign direct investment inShanghai. To further explain this, the main factors thatplay important roles in the decision of foreign direct in-vestment in Shanghai are analyzed. The extent of influ-ence is measured according to the changes of those decis-ive factors. A simple linear regression model is intro-duced to help the analysis.

Changes and Trends in the Independence of the US Federal Reserve Following the Financial Crisis

In 2018, US President Donald Trump repeatedly and publicly criticized the US Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too quickly, breaking the long-established precedent for presidents to refrain from intervening in monetary policy and putting the independence of the Federal Reserve into question. However, this is only the latest development of a longer process: since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been gradually losing its independence, in a quiet and perhaps permanent way. There are several reasons for this trend: the Federal Reserve’s performance during the financial crisis undermined its credibility, the consolidation of political factors arranged against its independence, and the consequences of the financial crisis weakened the economic foundation for its independence. Trump’s rise to power has only strengthened these factors, bringing an additional loss of independence, which will have a profound impact on the economy, society, and politics.

On the Mechanism of CDOs behind the Current Financial Crisis and Mathematical Modeling with Levy Distributions

This paper aims to reveal the mechanism of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and how CDOs extend the current global financial crisis. We first introduce the concept of CDOs and give a brief account of the de-velopment of CDOs. We then explicate the mechanism of CDOs within a concrete example with mortgage deals and we outline the evolution of the current financial crisis. Based on our overview of pricing CDOs in various existing random models, we propose an idea of modeling the random phenomenon with the feature of heavy tail dependence for possible implements towards a new random modeling for CDOs.

The defects of fair value under global financial crisis

With the advent of the economic crisis, fair value once again becomes a hot topic. This paper discusses the issues of fair value from three aspects including the meaning of fair value, its serious impacts and its inapplicability in China. As for this point, this paper stress that the rub of the fair value is its inaccurate recognition elements which will inevitably lead to the inaccurate measurement. Finally, the paper puts forward the viewpoint that China should be careful enough to apply the fair value accounting.

Recovery Capacity of the Finance System of Italian Municipalities After the Currency Crisis of 1992

This paper is a first pioneering attempt to apply the concept of resilience to the analysis of the public finance systems of local governments, a concept already used and ＂abused＂ in various disciplines and fields of science. In particular, it proposes an attempt to estimate the recovery capacity of Italian Municipalities in a crucial period of our country＇s financial history, between 1992 and 2000, or between the currency crisis and the introduction of the Euro. However, the analysis also involved the subsequent trends, in order to demonstrate that the current vulnerability of the municipal public finance system, in particular of the Municipalities of Southern Italy, depends not only on the economic cycle but also on the continuous and incessant changes in the financing mechanisms of local governments established by the central government. The analysis showed a lower financial resilience of the Municipalities of the Mezzogiorno （island and continental） compared to those of the Center-North. The determinants of this phenomenon were found, for one part, through the analysis of the financial data of the Italian Municipalities - as presented by the SVIMEZ in its annual reports on the economy of the Mezzogiomo - and, for another part, through the critical synthesis of significant economic events which occurred during the period examined.

Hungarian Economic Policy Measures After the 2008 Financial Crisis

The 1923 Global Economic Crisis （also called ＂The Great Depression＂） that had hit the whole world, caused the economists and politicians to see more clearly. As it has become obvious several times after World War II., deep changes were needed to be done concerning economic processes. In those times, many smaller crises had risen in different countries, affecting their micro-economic structures, however neither of them had such widespread effects as the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, that has struck several economic sectors, most of all, the finance industry. Numerous studies had been carried out, examining the causes and consequences of the 2008 Crisis. In this study the authors will give an organized overview on the circumstances that characterized the outbreak of the crisis, and focus on the impacts of the events, in particular, its effects on Hungary. To manage the crisis, each country used different economic approaches, took different measures, but the main concept, that economic processes needed strict regulations, was globally accepted, or at least, identified. Regulation of the financial sector, more specifically, of accounting standards was and is of paramount importance. At the outbreak of the crisis, Hungarian economy had been in a unique situation, and directly after 2008, Hungarian economic indicators showed a more favorable economic state compared to Western European countries. This has occurred because of the government＇s stabilization fiscal and economic policies in the years preceding the depression, when they had been trying to compensate the financial and economic decisions made during the previous years. But these indicators soon have changed and began to demonstrate a more realistic picture and showed the true economic state of the country. Besides the financial area, the Crisis had affected-on account of foreign currency lending--a wide range of the Hungarian society as well.

The Recent US Financial Crisis： Its Impact on Dividend Payout Strategy and a Test of the Silver-Lining Hypothesis

The authors investigate the impact of the recent financial crisis on dividend payout policies in the United States. The results are as follows. The authors find that： （l） Firms must have good financial profiles to support a policy of increasing dividend payouts during a financial crisis; （2） Overall firms increasing dividend payouts are also engaged in stock repurchases; （3） Firms choosing to increase cash dividend payouts seem to have low opportunity costs, that is, they do not have as many exercisable stock options that they may need in the face of possible future redemptions; and （4） During a financial crisis, the aforementioned trade-off between exercisable stock options and increased dividend payouts would peak, as the stock price slides to where it could be expected to V-bound and then became moderate when stock price recovered. The abovementioned findings are consistent with the ＂silver- lining＂ hypothesis which the authors proffer to suggest that the storm of economic bad times often creates circumstances that influence dividend payout strategies for firms traded on exchanges in the United States, and different dividend payout strategies may be strategically elected to reveal to the market participants a silver-lining in the cloud of bad times.

Changes of the Level of Liquidity in Time of the Financial Crisis： A Case of Polish Companies

The financial crisis undoubtedly exerted a pressure on the companies operating in Poland. Thus, it is important to undertake researches that reveal the paths and strength of the transmission of financial crisis with regard to the business entities. This paper presents partial results of the researches dedicated to the analysis of the impact of financial crisis on the financial situation of companies operating in Silesian Region in Poland. It analyses and discusses the general changes in the financial ratios that inform about the company＇s financial liquidity and the level of liquidity risk. As a research paper, it aims at justifying hypotheses about the changes of liquidity and liquidity risk in companies operating in Poland, Silesian Region within the period of 2006-2009. The tested hypotheses generally indicate the decrease of liquidity in the aftermath of crisis and a worse situation in the Silesian Region, as compared to the national level. The study is based on an application of a part of authors＇ self-developed method--the CFS Watch （Corporate Financial Situation Watch）, which consists of five analytical modules. In this study, one module is applied： the FLA Module （Financial Liquidity Analysis） with regard to financial liquidity and the level of liquidity risk. The research is based on the data collected by the Polish Central Statistical Office. The analysis of FLA Module is based on two samples of companies： companies operating in the Silesian Region （denoted as the MEPP sample）, and companies operating in Poland （denoted as the MAPP sample）. This allows developing a comparative analysis between regional and national dimension. The results of the study represent an interesting starting point for further comparative researches based on the analysis of the changes in the level of liquidity and liquidity risk of companies operating in different countries. It may form a base for finding similarities or differences in their financial situation in the aftermath of the financial crisis. The CFS Watch method in terms of the liquidity can be widely applied to make the results comparable.

Remittances to Ghana： Benefits to the Housing Sector and Impact of Financial Crisis

The role of inflow of overseas remittances towards the development of housing sector in Ghana, and the impact of recent financial crisis on the development process is investigated. This is achieved through a review and analysis of information gathered through national and international statistical sources and targeted household and institutional interviews. As a prelude to the analysis the study assessed the importance of remittance as large and growing part of the economic underpinning of developing countries. It then assesses whether remittances have a particular relationship with housing. The research provided an estimate of the nature, level and uses of remittances and the different cyclical characters of other flows. It reveals that the successful real estate market development across Ghana during the past decade benefited from a buoyant national economy, improved financial systems and family remittances. However, the picture changed especially during 2008 attributed mainly to the global financial crisis and economic downturn. The reverberating problems of unemployment and high levels of bankruptcies in the advanced countries were felt but not as pronounced as they were in the major industrialised economies. The discussions concluded by posing a much broader question in relation to other developing countries about how remittances could be mobilised towards the development of the housing sector.

The Public Savings’ Relation With Borrowing Requirement and Financial Balances After Global Crisis in Turkey

In this study, we aim to determine public savings’ structural location in the analysis of effect levels that are related to public borrowing requirement to cope with the deviation of financial balances, especially after 2009 global crisis in Turkey. Public savings as a financial option take up an important place in the scope of expressed government budget balances related to public borrowing requirements which are increasingly located together with budget deficits. This fact especially is pertaining to investments and capital’s transfers that are subject to the public decision making process towards economic growth in the future in developing countries like Turkey. Therefore, increasing public savings’ limits appear on these countries as an inevitable financial phenomenon concerning the desired investments. Turkey, as a developing country, has faced two financial phenomenons that increase borrowing requirement terms that lead to intend financial balances that have generally deviated after 2009 financial crisis. Firstly, it’s increasing foreign debt burden and the public savings’ levels that have not been enough to cover all the proportion of foreign debt payments since 2009. Secondly, the effect level of global crisis on the exchange rates directly causes the deviation of national currency values as a meaningful important negative impact on budget balances that are aimed at together with the macroeconomic financial balances.

A Brief Analysis of the Financial Crisis of 2008

The end of the first decade of the new century was a disaster for many people around the globe financially.The fall in the housing market in the summer of 2007 caused a series of chain reactions that would eventually cause a financial breakdown that led to the Great Recession in 2008.The causes of the Great Recession in 2008 was very complicated and hard to understand.But the basis of those causes was human greed that made people unaware of the real situation and over-optimistic about their capacity of handling the situation.

The Impact of Foreign Bank Strategies on the Behavior and Performance of Czech and Slovak Banks in the Financial Crisis

In this paper, the authors analyze the impact of the specific ownership structure of the banking sector in Czech and Slovakia on the performance and applied strategies of particular banks during times of crisis. Did the multinational banks pursue a coherent regional strategy to cope with the risks resulting from the crisis, or did they focus on finding local solutions？ The aim of this paper is to find answers to these questions. A case study is going to be used as a basic research method. Two members （Slovak and Czech） of four multinational banking groups are examined in the crisis year 2009, whereby both a qualitative analysis of the annual reports regarding strategic business or risk management decisions and a comparative quantitative analysis of selected financial data and risk indicators are employed. The authors have found that Czech and Slovak banks generally tried to follow the main strategic directions given by their parent banks during the financial crisis. However, particular financial results and risk profiles of respective subsidiaries of multinational banks still differ because of market factors specific to the different countries in which the subsidiaries are located.