Global burden of inflammatory bowel disease 1990-2019:A systematic examination of the disease burden and twenty-year forecast

BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)is an idiopathic intestinal disease with various levels and trends in different countries and regions.Understanding the current burden and trends of IBD in various geographical locations is essential to establish effective strategies for prevention and treatment.We report the average annual percentage change(AAPC)and estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)in age-standardized rates(ASR)of IBD in different regions based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)study from 1990-2019,and the relationships between IBD and the human development index(HDI)and socio-demographic index(SDI).The prevalence trends of IBD were predicted by gender from 2019-2039.AIM To comprehensively investigate IBD data,providing further insights into the management of this chronic disease.METHODS We collected the information on the incidence of IBD from the GBD study from 1990-2019 to calculate the AAPC and EAPC in ASR of IBD in different regions.The relationships between IBD,HDI,and SDI were analyzed.The Nordpred and Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict the prevalence trends of IBD by gender from 2019-2039,and the reliability of the results was validated.RESULTS North America consistently had the highest IBD ASR,while Oceania consistently had the lowest.East Asia had the fastest average annual growth in ASR(2.54%),whereas Central Europe had the fastest decline(1.38%).Countries with a low age-standardized incidence rates in 1990 showed faster growth in IBD while there was no significant correlation in 2019.Additionally,IBD increased faster in countries with a low age-standardized death rates in 1990,whereas the opposite was true in 2019.Analysis of SDI and IBD ASR showed that countries with a high SDI generally had a higher IBD ASR.Finally,the projections showed a declining trend in the incidence of IBD from 2019-2039,but a gradual increase in the number of cases.CONCLUSION As the global population increases and ages,early monitoring and prevention of IBD is important to reduce the disease burden,especially in countries with a high incidence of IBD.

Cancers in Eastern Libya: First results from Benghazi Medical Center

AIM: To study the pattern of cancer incidence and determine the incidence rates in Eastern Libya (for the first time in a decade).

Colorectal carcinoma in a Southern Mediterranean country: The Libyan scenario

AIM: To study the salient features of colorectal cancer(CRC) in Libya.METHODS: Patients records were gathered at the primary oncology clinic in eastern Libya for the period of one calendar year(2012). Using this data, various parameters were analyzed and age-standardized incidence rates were determined using the direct method and the standard population.RESULTS: During 2012, 174 patients were diagnosed with CRC, 51.7%(n = 90) male and 48.3%(n = 84) females. The average age was 58.7(± 13.4) years, with men around 57.3(± 13) years old and women usually 60.1(± 13.8) years of age. Libya has the highest rate of CRC in North Africa, with an incidence closer to the European figures. The age-standardized rate for CRC was 17.5 and 17.2/100000 for males and females respectively. It was the second most common cancer, forming 19% of malignancies, with fluctuation in ranking and incidence in different cities/villages. Increasingly, younger ages are being afflicted and a higher proportion of patients are among the > 40 years subset.Nearly two-thirds presented at either stage Ⅲ(22.4%) or Ⅳ(38.4%).CONCLUSION: Cancer surveillance systems should be established in order to effectively monitor the situation. Likewise, screening programs are invaluable in the Libyan scenario given the predominance of sporadic cases.

National Breast Cancer Mortality and Incidence Rates According to the Human Development Index: An Ecological Study

Background: This study aimed to identify the role of human development index (HDI) in the incidence and mortality rates of breast cancer (BC) worldwide. Methods: Data on the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of BC for 184 countries were obtained from the GLOBOCAN. Data about the HDI and other indices were obtained from the World Bank Report 2013. Linear regression model was used for assessment the effect of HDI on BC occurrence rates. Results: In 2012, BCs were estimated to have affected a total of 1,671,149 individuals (crude rate: 47.8 per 100,000 individuals), and caused 521,907 deaths worldwide (crude rate: 14.7 per 100,000 individuals). Nearly half of total female BC cases (46.3%) with the highest risk of incidence (age-standardized Rate (ASR): 128 per 100,000) had occurred in very high HDI regions. The most proportion of the mortality burden was in low HDI and medium HDI areas. Linear regression analyses showed a direct significant correlation between the incidence of BC and HDI at the global level (B = 104.5, P < 0.001). The mortality rate of BC was not significantly associated with HDI (B = 3.26, P = 0.160). Conclusion: Our study showed that the burden of female BC is enormous in very high HDI and low HID regions. Targeted interventions have the ability to reduce this number significantly through resource-dependent interventions. Moreover, further reductions in mortality could be brought about by increasing access to curative treatment for patients with BC.

National trend of gastric cancer mortality in China(2003-2015):a population-based study

Background:Gastric cancer mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide.This study aimed to assess the most recent national trend of gastric cancer mortality and examine the disparity of gastric cancer mortality between rural and urban areas in China.Methods:The crude mortality data of gastric cancer by sex,age group,and area were obtained from China Health Statistical Yearbooks(2003-2015)covering 10%of Chinese population.The age-standardized rates of mortality(ASRM)of gastric cancer in rural and urban areas were estimated using the 2010 Chinese Census population stratified by age,sex,and area.The trend of mortality of gastric cancer was assessed by using Joinpoint analysis.Results:During the 13-year period,the ASRM was reduced from 31.5/100,000 in 2003 to 20.9/100,000 in 2015 in rural areas and from 18.9/100,000 in 2003 to 14.5/100,000 in 2015 in urban areas.In the male population,the annual percent changes of mortality were−2.2%in urban areas(95%confidence interval[CI]−3.8%to−0.6%;P<0.001)and−3.4%in rural areas(95%CI−5.1%to−1.8%;P<0.001).In the female population,the annual percent changes of mortality were−2.7%in urban areas(95%CI−4.2%to−1.2%;P<0.001)and−4.6%in rural areas(95%CI−5.5%to−3.7%;P<0.001).Conclusions:The declining trend of mortality of gastric cancer was presented from 2003 to 2015 in both rural and urban areas in China.The decrease in gastric cancer mortality is greater in rural areas than in urban areas in China.

Trends in cancer mortality in China from 2004 to 2018:A nationwide longitudinal study

Background:The long-term trend in cancer death in a rapidly developing country provides information for cancer prophylaxis.Here,we aimed to identify the trends in cancer mortality in China during the 2004-2018 period.Methods:Using raw data from the national mortality surveillance system of China,we assessed the mortalities of all cancer and site-specific cancers during the 2004-2018 period.The participants were divided into three age groups:≥65 years,40-64 years,and≤39 years.Changing trends in cancer death by gender,residency,and tumor location were estimated using fitting joinpoint models to log-transformed crude mortality rates(CMRs)and age-standardizedmortality rates(ASMRs).Results:Cancer death accounted for 24% of all-cause of death in China during 2014-2018.The CMR of all cancer was 150.0 per 100,000 persons.Cancer was the leading cause of death in the population<65 years.The six major cancer types(lung/bronchus cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer,esophagus cancer,colorectal cancer,and pancreas cancer)accounted for 75.85% of all cancer deaths.The CMR of all cancer increased while the ASMR decreased during 2014-2018(P<0.001).Lung/bronchus cancer and liver cancer were the leading causes of cancer death in the population<65 years,accounting for 45.31%(CMR)and 44.35%(ASMR)of all cancer death,respectively.The ASMR of liver cancer was higher in the 40-64 years population than in the≥65 years population,in contrast to the other five major cancers.The ASMRs of liver cancer,stomach cancer,and esophagus cancer decreased although they were higher in rural residents than in urban residents;the ASMRs of lung/bronchus cancer,colorectal cancer,and pancreas cancer increased in rural residents although they were higher in urban residents than in rural residents during 2014-2018.Conclusion:Although the ASMR of all cancer decreased in China during 2004-2018,lung/bronchus cancer and liver cancer remained the leading causes of cancer-related premature death.Lung/bronchus cancer,colorectal cancer,and pancreas cancer increased in rural residents.

Global and regional burdens of oral cancer from 1990 to 2017:Results from the global burden of disease study

Background:Data on the incidence,mortality,and other burden of oral cancer as well as their secular trends are necessary to provide policy-makers with the information needed to allocate resources appropriately.The purpose of this study was to use the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2017 results to estimate the incidence,mortality,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)for oral cancer from 1990 to 2017.Methods:We collected detailed data on oral cancer from 1990 to 2017 from the GBD 2017.The global incidence,mortality,and DALYs attributable to oral cancer as well as the corresponding age-standardized rates(ASRs)were calculated.The estimated annual percentage changes in the ASRs of incidence(ASRI)and mortality(ASRM)and age-standardized DALYs of oral cancer were also calculated according to regions and countries to quantify the secular trends in these rates.Results:We tracked the incidence,mortality,and DALYs of oral cancer in 195 countries/territories over 28 years.Globally,the incidence,mortality,and DALYs of oral cancer increased by about 1.0-fold from 1990 to 2017.The ASRI of oral cancer showed a similar trend,increasing from 4.41 to 4.84 per 100,000 person-years during the study period.The ASRM remained approximately stable at about 2.4 per 100,000 from 1990 to 2017,as did the age-standardized DALYs,at about 64.0 per 100,000 person-years.ASRI was highest in Pakistan(27.03/100,000,95%CI=22.13-32.75/100,000),followed by Taiwan China,and lowest in Iraq(0.96/100,000,95%CI=0.86-1.06/100,000).ASRM was highest in Pakistan(16.85/100,000,95%CI=13.92-20.17/100,000)and lowest in Kuwait(0.51/100,000,95%CI=0.45-0.58/100,000).Conclusions:The ASRI of oral cancer has increased slightly worldwide,while the ASRM and age-standardized DALY have remained stable.However,these characteristics vary between countries,suggesting that current prevention strategies should be reoriented,and much more targeted and specific strategies should be established in some countries to forestall the increase in oral cancer.

Trends in burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in countries,regions,and worldwide from 1990 to 2017:results from the Global Burden of Disease study

Background:Antituberculosis-drug resistance is an important public health issue,and its epidemiological patterns has dramatically changed in recent decades.This study aimed to estimate the trends of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis(MDR-TB),which can be used to inform health strategies.Methods:Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017.The estimated annual percentage changes(EAPCs)were calculated to assess the trends of MDR-TB burden at global,regional,and national level from 1990 to 2017 using the linear regression model.