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Evaluation of Serum Anti-Müllerian Hormone (AMH) Values for 28,016 Bulgarian Women: Prognostic Statistical Model of Age Specific AMH Declining
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作者 Martin Vladimirov Evan Gatev +6 位作者 Desislava Tacheva Aleksandra Kalacheva Milena Bojilova Serpil Izet Alexander Angelov Nedyalko Kalatchev Iavor K. Vladimirov 《Open Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology》 2024年第5期651-673,共23页
The present study aims to establish a relationship between serum AMH levels and age in a large group of women living in Bulgaria, as well as to establish reference age-specific AMH levels in women that would serve as ... The present study aims to establish a relationship between serum AMH levels and age in a large group of women living in Bulgaria, as well as to establish reference age-specific AMH levels in women that would serve as an initial estimate of ovarian age. A total of 28,016 women on the territory of the Republic of Bulgaria were tested for serum AMH levels with a median age of 37.0 years (interquartile range 32.0 to 41.0). For women aged 20 - 29 years, the Bulgarian population has relatively high median levels of AMH, similar to women of Asian origin. For women aged 30 - 34 years, our results are comparable to those of women living in Western Europe. For women aged 35 - 39 years, our results are comparable to those of women living in the territory of India and Kenya. For women aged 40 - 44 years, our results were lower than those for women from the Western European and Chinese populations, close to the Indian and higher than Korean and Kenya populations, respectively. Our results for women of Bulgarian origin are also comparable to US Latina women at age 30, 35 and 40 ages. On the base on constructed a statistical model to predicting the decline in AMH levels at different ages, we found non-linear structure of AMH decline for the low AMH 3.5) the dependence of the decline of AMH on age was confirmed as linear. In conclusion, we evaluated the serum level of AMH in Bulgarian women and established age-specific AMH percentile reference values based on a large representative sample. We have developed a prognostic statistical model that can facilitate the application of AMH in clinical practice and the prediction of reproductive capacity and population health. 展开更多
关键词 Anti-Müllerian Hormone Women age Ovarian Response ETHNICITY Prognostic Statistical model
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Study on Planning Model of Chinese Aged Community in Background of European and American Old-age System
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作者 Liu Zhang 《International Journal of Technology Management》 2016年第12期85-87,共3页
Attention to the pension work is the performance of social development and progress, effective selection of effective old-age way to promote the elderly in his later years and it is the inevitable requirement of the d... Attention to the pension work is the performance of social development and progress, effective selection of effective old-age way to promote the elderly in his later years and it is the inevitable requirement of the development of the times. On the basis of comparative analysis of the pros and cons of various pension methods, the actual social work department must carry out specific judgment on the specificold people. The elderly need not only the material aspects of life care, but also the need for emotional support and spiritual comfort, in the new historical conditions must be in the body and mind and informed lines and other aspects of the elderly to give loved ones, considerate, warm and friendly , respect and care. This paper proposes the novel perspective on the planning model of Chinese aged community in background of European and American old-age system. In the future, we will apply the proposed model into more scenarios to test the performance. 展开更多
关键词 Planning model aged Community European and American Old-age System
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Constitutive modeling and springback simulation for 2524 aluminum alloy in creep age forming 被引量:10
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作者 杨有良 湛利华 李杰 《Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第9期3048-3055,共8页
The constitutive modeling and springback simulation for AA2524 sheet in creep age forming(CAF) process were presented.A series of creep aging tests were performed on AA2524 at the temperature of 180-200 °C and ... The constitutive modeling and springback simulation for AA2524 sheet in creep age forming(CAF) process were presented.A series of creep aging tests were performed on AA2524 at the temperature of 180-200 °C and under the stress of 140-210 MPa for 16 h.Based on these experimental data,material constitutive equations which can well characterize creep aging behaviors of the tested alloy were developed.The effect of interior stress distributed along the sheet thickness on springback was simulated using FE software MSC.MARC by compiling the established constitutive models into the user subroutine.The simulation results showed that the amount of sheet springback was 61.12% when merely considering tensile stress existing along the sheet thickness;while sheet springback was up to 65.93% when taking both tensile and compressive stresses into account.In addition,an AA2524 rectangular sheet was subjected to CAF experiment in resistance furnace.The springback value of the formed rectangular sheet was 68.2%,which was much closer to 65.93%.This confirms that both tensile and compressive stresses across the sheet thickness should be considered in accurately predicting springback of the sheet after forming,which can be more consistent with experimental results. 展开更多
关键词 2524 aluminum alloy creep age forming constitutive modeling springback simulation stress state
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Damage constitutive model of different age concretes under impact load 被引量:8
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作者 李夕兵 王世鸣 +3 位作者 翁磊 黄麟淇 周韬 周健 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第2期693-700,共8页
In order to investigate the mechanical properties and stress-strain curves of concrete at different ages under impact load,the impact compression tests of concrete at age of 1, 3, 7, 14 and 28 d were conducted with a ... In order to investigate the mechanical properties and stress-strain curves of concrete at different ages under impact load,the impact compression tests of concrete at age of 1, 3, 7, 14 and 28 d were conducted with a large diameter split Hopkinson pressure bar, respectively. Based on statistical damage theory and Weibull distribution, combining the analysis of the change laws of stressstrain curves and viscosity coefficient of concrete with age, a damage constitutive model that can reflect the variation in dynamic mechanical properties with age was proposed. The stress-strain curves calculated from the proposed model are in good agreement with those from experimental data directly. 展开更多
关键词 CONCRETE constitutive model age split Hopkinson pressure bar
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Growth simulation and yield prediction for perennial jujube fruit tree by integrating age into the WOFOST model 被引量:7
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作者 BAI Tie-cheng WANG Tao +2 位作者 ZHANG Nan-nan CHEN You-qi Benoit MERCATORIS 《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第3期721-734,共14页
Mathematical models have been widely employed for the simulation of growth dynamics of annual crops,thereby performing yield prediction,but not for fruit tree species such as jujube tree(Zizyphus jujuba).The objective... Mathematical models have been widely employed for the simulation of growth dynamics of annual crops,thereby performing yield prediction,but not for fruit tree species such as jujube tree(Zizyphus jujuba).The objectives of this study were to investigate the potential use of a modified WOFOST model for predicting jujube yield by introducing tree age as a key parameter.The model was established using data collected from dedicated field experiments performed in 2016-2018.Simulated growth dynamics of dry weights of leaves,stems,fruits,total biomass and leaf area index(LAI) agreed well with measured values,showing root mean square error(RMSE) values of 0.143,0.333,0.366,0.624 t ha^-1 and 0.19,and R2 values of 0.947,0.976,0.985,0.986 and 0.95,respectively.Simulated phenological development stages for emergence,anthesis and maturity were 2,3 and 3 days earlier than the observed values,respectively.In addition,in order to predict the yields of trees with different ages,the weight of new organs(initial buds and roots) in each growing season was introduced as the initial total dry weight(TDWI),which was calculated as averaged,fitted and optimized values of trees with the same age.The results showed the evolution of the simulated LAI and yields profiled in response to the changes in TDWI.The modelling performance was significantly improved when it considered TDWI integrated with tree age,showing good global(R2≥0.856,RMSE≤0.68 t ha^-1) and local accuracies(mean R2≥0.43,RMSE≤0.70 t ha^-1).Furthermore,the optimized TDWI exhibited the highest precision,with globally validated R2 of 0.891 and RMSE of 0.591 t ha^-1,and local mean R2 of 0.57 and RMSE of 0.66 t ha^-1,respectively.The proposed model was not only verified with the confidence to accurately predict yields of jujube,but it can also provide a fundamental strategy for simulating the growth of other fruit trees. 展开更多
关键词 fruit tree growth simulation yield forecasting crop model tree age
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Predicting stand age in managed forests using National Forest Inventory field data and airborne laser scanning 被引量:2
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作者 Matti Maltamo Hermanni Kinnunen +1 位作者 Annika Kangas Lauri Korhonen 《Forest Ecosystems》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第3期579-589,共11页
Background: The aim of this study was to construct a nationwide stand age model by using National Forest Inventory(NFI) data and nationwide airborne laser scanning(ALS) data. In plantation forestry, age is usually kno... Background: The aim of this study was to construct a nationwide stand age model by using National Forest Inventory(NFI) data and nationwide airborne laser scanning(ALS) data. In plantation forestry, age is usually known.While this is not the case in boreal managed forests, age is still seldom predicted in forest management inventories.Measuring age accurately in situ is also very laborious. On the other hand, tree age is one of the accurately measured sample tree attributes in NFI field data. Many countries also have a nationwide coverage of airborne laser scanning(ALS) data. In this study, we merged these data sources and constructed a nationwide, area-based model for stand age.Results: While constructing the model, we omitted old forests from the data, since the correlation between ALS height metrics and stand age diminished at stands with age > 100 years. Additionally, the effect of growth conditions was considerable, so we also utilized different geographical and NFI variables such as site fertility and soil type in the modeling. The resultant nationwide model for the stand age of managed forests yielded a root mean square error(RMSE) of about 14 years. The model could be improved further by additional forest structure variables, but such information may not be available in practice.Conclusions: The results showed that the prediction of stand age by ALS, geographical and NFI information was challenging, but stil possible with moderate success. This study is an example of the joint use of NFI and nationwide ALS data and re-use of NFI data in research. 展开更多
关键词 Forest stock age LIDAR NFI Nationwide model Growth conditions
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A unified constitutive model for multiphase precipitation and multi-stage creep ageing behavior of Al−Li−S4 alloy 被引量:2
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作者 He LI Li-hua ZHAN +5 位作者 Ming-hui HUANG Xing ZHAO Chang ZHOU Li-bin HU Zheng-gen HU De-bo LIU 《Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第5期1217-1234,共18页
A unified constitutive model is presented to predict the recently observed“multi-stage”creep behavior of Al−Li−S4 alloy.The corresponding microstructural variables related to the yield strength and creep deformation... A unified constitutive model is presented to predict the recently observed“multi-stage”creep behavior of Al−Li−S4 alloy.The corresponding microstructural variables related to the yield strength and creep deformation of the alloy during the creep ageing process,including dislocations and multiple precipitates,have been characterized in detail by X-ray diffraction(XRD)and transmission electron microscopy(TEM).For the yield strength,the model considers the multiphase strengthening behavior of the alloy based on strengthening mechanisms,which includes shearable T1 precipitate strengthening,non-shearable T1 precipitate strengthening andθ′precipitate strengthening.Based on creep deformation mechanism,the“multi-stage”creep behavior of the alloy is predicted by introducing the effects of interacting microstructural variables,including the radius of multiple precipitates,dislocation density and solute concentration,into the creep stress−strain model.It is concluded that the results calculated by the model are in a good agreement with the experimental data,which validates the proposed model. 展开更多
关键词 constitutive modelling Al−Li−S4 alloy creep age forming MICROSTRUCTURES numerical algorithms
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Modelling the response of larch growth to age,density,and elevation and the implications for multifunctional management in northwest China 被引量:1
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作者 Ao Tian Yanhui Wang +3 位作者 Ashley A.Webb Pengtao Yu Xiao Wang Zebin Liu 《Journal of Forestry Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第5期1423-1436,共14页
Plantations of Rupprecht's larch(Larix principis-rupprechtii)have been widely established in the drylands of northwest and north China under traditional fastgrowing plantation management strategies.These strategie... Plantations of Rupprecht's larch(Larix principis-rupprechtii)have been widely established in the drylands of northwest and north China under traditional fastgrowing plantation management strategies.These strategies and the long-term logging ban have led to over-populated stands with lower structural and functional stability,less economic benefit and higher water consumption.To guide the sustainable management of larch plantations,field surveys and historical data compilation were undertaken in the Liupan Mountains of northwest China.The main influencing factors(stand structure and site condition)and their effects on mean tree height,mean DBH and timber volumes were determined based on up-boundary line analysis.Tree growth models coupling the effects of tree age,stand density,and elevation were established.Both height and DBH markedly increased initially and then slowly with tree age,decreased with stand density,and showed unimodal change with elevation.The coupled growth models accounted for72-78%of the variations in tree height,DBH and timber growth.Recommendations for future plantation management are:(1)prolong the rotation to at least 60 years to produce large-diameter,high-quality timber and maintain greater carbon stocks;(2)zone the target functions of stands by elevation;and,(3)reduce stand density for balanced supply of multiple ecosystem services.The growth models developed can predict growth response of larch plantations to density alteration under given ages and elevations,and assist the transformation from traditional management for maximum timber production to site-specific and multifunctional management with longer rotations and moderate tree density. 展开更多
关键词 Larch plantations Coupled growth model Influencing factors age DENSITY ELEVATION
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Luminescence chronology and age model application for the upper part of the Chumbur-Kosa loess sequence in the Sea of Azov, Russia 被引量:1
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作者 CHEN Jie YANG Tai-bao +4 位作者 G.G.MATISHOV A.A.VELICHKO ZENG Biao HE Yi SHI Pei-hong 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第3期504-518,共15页
A reliable chronology is essentially critical for correlating loess records with other paleoenvironmental time series, as well as for continuing improvements in the reconstruction of paleoenvironment and paleoclimate ... A reliable chronology is essentially critical for correlating loess records with other paleoenvironmental time series, as well as for continuing improvements in the reconstruction of paleoenvironment and paleoclimate changes. It is exactly that the scarcity of chronologies across the Sea of Azov has limited the interpretation of climatic and environmental information in the East European Plain. In view of this, this paper conducted an exploratory study to investigate whether the optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) dating of medium-grained quartz could be used to obtain a set of chronologies and the age models could be used to establish an independent time scale since the Late Pleistocene for the Sea of Azov loess. The results showed that an internally consistent set of optical ages for the Azov loess deposited up to ~76 ka. In addition, the ages developed based on magnetic susceptibility and grain size ages models showed good comparability with independent OSL ages at an acceptable range, suggesting that it might be practicable to establish an independent time scale using age models at the Sea of Azov loess, at least for the uppermost part of the Chumbur-Kosa section. Comparison with the ages based on two age models,the grain size ages using fine-grain fractions may provide a more reliable chronological sequence at the Azov loess since the Late Pleistocene. With the help of absolute ages and climate proxies(magnetic susceptibility and grain size), paleoclimatic change in the Sea of Azov have been traced for the Late Pleistocene. 展开更多
关键词 Optical dating age models LOESS Late Pleistocene Sea of Azov
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Practice Environment, Work Characteristics and Levels of Burnout as Predictors of Nurse Reported Job Outcomes, Quality of Care and Patient Adverse Events: A Study across Residential Aged Care Services 被引量:1
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作者 Peter Van Bogaert Tinne Dilles +1 位作者 Kristien Wouters Bart Van Rompaey 《Open Journal of Nursing》 2014年第5期343-355,共13页
To understand how to create a stabile workforce achieving excellent quality of care and patient safety, associations between practice environments and nurse and patient outcomes have been widely studied in acute and p... To understand how to create a stabile workforce achieving excellent quality of care and patient safety, associations between practice environments and nurse and patient outcomes have been widely studied in acute and psychiatric care hospitals. Knowing residential aged care services are challenged to tackle complex patients’ needs within certain working conditions, to what extent do nurses perceive their practice environment in geriatric care? In a cross-sectional survey, a sample of 709 registered nurses, licensed practical nurses and nurse aides employed in 25 residential aged care services completed a structured questionnaire composed of various validated instruments measuring nurse practice environment factors, nurse work characteristics, burnout, nurse reported job outcomes, quality and patient adverse events. Associations between variables across residential aged care services were examined using multilevel modelling techniques. Associations were identified between practice environment factors, work characteristics, burnout dimensions, and reported outcome variables across residential aged care services. Multiple multilevel models showed independent variables (nursing management at the unit level, workload, decision latitude, social capital, emotional exhaustion and depersonalization) as important predictors of nurse reported outcome (job satisfaction, turnover intensions), quality of care (at the unit, the last shift, and in the service within the last year) and patient adverse events (patient and family complaints, patient falls, pulmonary and urinary tract infections, and medications errors). Results suggested the importance of nurse practice environment factors, nurse work characteristics and perception of burnout on nurse and patient outcomes across their nurse practice environment. Challenging the complex care of a vulnerable and frail population executives, physicians, nursing leaders as well as nurses in their nurse practice environment shared responsibility to create working conditions achieving excellent quality and patient safety. 展开更多
关键词 BURNOUT JOB SATISFACTION NURSE Practice Environment Quality of CARE Residential aged CARE Multilevel modelling
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Genetic Worth Effect Models for Boreal Conifers and Their Utility When Integrated into Density Management Decision-Support Systems 被引量:1
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作者 Peter F. Newton 《Open Journal of Forestry》 2015年第1期105-115,共11页
Based on approaches deduced from previous research findings and empirical observations from density control experiments, genetic worth effect response models were developed for black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill) BSP.)... Based on approaches deduced from previous research findings and empirical observations from density control experiments, genetic worth effect response models were developed for black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill) BSP.) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) plantations. The models accounted for the increased rate of stand development arising from the planting of genetically-improved stock through temporal adjustments to the species-specific site-based mean dominant height-age functions. The models utilized a relative height growth modifier based on known estimates of genetic gain. The models also incorporated a phenotypic juvenile age-mature age correlation function in order to account for the intrinsic temporal decline in the magnitude of genetic worth effects throughout the rotation. Integrating the functions into algorithmic variants of structural stand density management models produced stand development patterns that were consistent with axioms of even-aged stand dynamics. 展开更多
关键词 PICEA MARIANA Pinus banksiana Structural Stand DENSITY Management modelS Phenotypic Juvenile age-Mature age Correlation Canadian BOREAL Forest Region
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Grain-size Age Model in Reconstructing Orbital-and Suborbital-scale Climate Changes on the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau Since the Late Glacial
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作者 LI Yuan ZHAO Hui 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第3期698-706,共9页
Reconstructions of past climatic changes on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau(NETP) can provide insights into the Asian summer monsoon(ASM) variability. However, the regional climate changes on both orbital and suborbi... Reconstructions of past climatic changes on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau(NETP) can provide insights into the Asian summer monsoon(ASM) variability. However, the regional climate changes on both orbital and suborbital time scales since the late Glacial remain controversial. Here we present the results of high-resolution geochemical and grain-size analyses of a sediment core from Genggahai Lake, a small, shallow lake in this area. Changes of the accumulation rate of the core sediments show a similar trend with variations of the coarse fraction. Accordingly, the chronological framework is constructed using a grain-size age model. In addition, the histories of chemical weathering and aeolian activity since the late Glacial are reconstructed based on the Al/Ti ratios and coarse fractions, respectively. The results suggest that an enhanced chemical weathering and a weakened aeolian activity occurred on the NETP under a warmer, wetter climate during the early to mid-Holocene(11.3–6.3 ka cal BP), compared with the late Glacial(17.1–11.3 ka cal BP) and the late Holocene(6.3 ka cal BP to present), which responded mainly to the strengthened ASM on orbital time scale. In addition, the synchronous occurrences of weakened chemical weathering, low lake level and intense aeolian activity on suborbital time scale reflect several episodes of weakened ASM. Furthermore, these episodes largely coincide with the centennial-to millennial-scale cold events in the North Atlantic, which demonstrates the close connection between the ASM and the cooling at high latitudes. 展开更多
关键词 climate change lake sediment grain-size age model MONSOON HOLOCENE China
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Reliability modelling based on dependent two-stage virtual age processes
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作者 QIU Qingan CUI Lirong 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2021年第3期711-721,共11页
This paper proposes reliability and maintenance models for systems suffering random shocks arriving according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process.The system degradation process include two stages:from the installatio... This paper proposes reliability and maintenance models for systems suffering random shocks arriving according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process.The system degradation process include two stages:from the installation of a new system to an initial point of a defect(normal stage),and then from that point to failure(defective stage),following the delay time concept.By employing the virtual age method,the impact of external shocks on the system degradation process is characterized by random virtual age increment in the two stages,resulting in the corresponding two-stage virtual age process.When operating in the defective state,the system becomes more susceptible to fatigue and suffers from a greater aging rate.Replacement is carried out either on failure or on the detection of a defective state at periodic or opportunistic inspections.This paper evaluates system reliability performance and investigates the optimal opportunistic maintenance policy.A case study on a cooling system is given to verify the obtained results. 展开更多
关键词 reliability evaluation delay-time model virtual age process opportunistic maintenance
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Influence of species,age and weight on the establishment of a murine model of brachial plexus root avulsion
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作者 Lifeng Yan Xiuchun Zhao +4 位作者 Yaqiong Wang Lin Wang Xiao Cheng Lihua Zhou Xia Feng 《Neural Regeneration Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第10期764-768,共5页
BACKGROUND: Animal models of brachial plexus root avulsion are required for the study of brachial plexus root injuries. The established ventral approach results in slight injuries, and is similar to mechanisms underl... BACKGROUND: Animal models of brachial plexus root avulsion are required for the study of brachial plexus root injuries. The established ventral approach results in slight injuries, and is similar to mechanisms underlying human brachial plexus root avulsion.OBJECTIVE: To analyze the effects of weight, age, and species on the success rate of brachial plexus root avulsion, and to determine the perfect method for establishing models of brachial plexus root avulsion.DESIGN, TIME AND SETTING: A randomized, block design was performed at the Laboratory of Professor Lihua Zhou, Zhongshan School of Medicine, Sun Yat-sen University, China from June 2008 to June 2009.MATERIALS: Sprague Dawley (SD) rats, golden hamsters, and BALb/C mice were used in the present study.METHODS: All animals were randomly subjected to classical brachial plexus root avulsion and modified brachial plexus root avulsion.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Success rate of brachial plexus root avulsion. RESULTS: The success rate of brachial plexus root avulsion was greater in the modified group than in the classical group (P〈0.01). Moreover, the difference was significant in 15-day-old SD rats, 5-week-old SD rats, and 3-month-old BALb/C mice (P〈0.01). The success rate of brachial plexus root avulsion was greater in the same weight, 15-day-old juvenile SD rats, than in the 3-month-old BALb/C mice (classical group, P〈0.01; modified group, P〈0.05). The success rate of brachial plexus root avulsion was significantly greater in 3-month-old golden hamsters than in 5-week-old SD rats in the classical group (P〈0.05). The success rate of brachial plexus root avulsion was significantly lower in the 15-day-old SD rats compared with the 5-week-old and 3-month-old SD rats in the classical group (P〈0.01). However, there was no significant difference in the success rate of brachial plexus root avulsion between various ages of SD rats in the modified group (P〉0.05).CONCLUSION: Modified surgery to induce brachial plexus root avulsion significantly increases the success rate of model establishment. Species, age, and weight affect the success rate of brachial plexus root avulsion, and species plays an important role in the success rate. 展开更多
关键词 brachial plexus root injury SPECIES age ANIMAL disease model modified surgery peripheral nerve injury neural regeneration
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Anti-Interference Study on Radiographic Bone Age Estimation Based on Artificial Intelligence Model
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作者 Songzheng Huang Jianfeng Chen 《Open Journal of Radiology》 2023年第4期232-245,共14页
In this paper, the interferences of X-ray image noise on a bone age model, Xception model, were studied. We conduct a comparative experiment test according to the output performance of the neural network model using b... In this paper, the interferences of X-ray image noise on a bone age model, Xception model, were studied. We conduct a comparative experiment test according to the output performance of the neural network model using both the original image training and noise-added (Gaussian noise plus salt-pepper noise) training, and analyze the anti-interference ability of the Xception model, hoping to improve it through noise enhancement training and generalize the application ability of the model. The results show that the model trained with noise-added (Gaussian noise plussalt-pepper noise) images can make predictions that are more robust and less affected by the image disturbances, such as image noise. 展开更多
关键词 Bone age X-Ray Image Xception model Gaussian Noise Salt-Pepper Noise
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Phenomenological Models of the Global Demographic Dynamics and Their Usage for Forecasting in 21st Century
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作者 Askar Akaev 《Applied Mathematics》 2022年第7期612-649,共38页
A great discovery made by H. von Foerster, P. M. Mora and L. W. Amiot was published in a 1960 issue of “Science”. The authors showed that existing data for calculating the Earth’s population in the new era (from 1 ... A great discovery made by H. von Foerster, P. M. Mora and L. W. Amiot was published in a 1960 issue of “Science”. The authors showed that existing data for calculating the Earth’s population in the new era (from 1 to 1958) could be described with incredibly high proximity by a hyperbolic function with the point of singularity on 13 November 2026. Thus, empirical regularity of the rise of the human population was established, which was marked by explosive demographic growth in the 20<sup>th</sup> century when during only one century it almost quadrupled: from 1.656 billion in 1900 to 6.144 billion in 2000. Nowadays, the world population has already overcome 7.8 billion people. Immediately after 1960, an active search for phenomenological models began to explain the mechanism of the hyperbolic population growth and the following demographic transition designed to stabilize its population. A significant role in explaining the mechanism of the hyperbolic growth of the world population was played by S. Kuznets (1960) and E. Boserup (1965), who found out that the rates of technological progress historically increased in proportion to the Earth’s population. It meant that the growth of the population led to raising the level of life-supporting technologies, and the latter in its turn enlarged the carrying capacity of the Earth, making it possible for the world population to expand. Proceeding from the information imperative, we have developed the model of the demographic dynamics for the 21<sup>st</sup> century for the first time. The model shows that with the development and spread of Intelligent Machines (IM), the number of the world population reaching a certain maximum will then irreversibly decline. Human depopulation will largely touch upon the most developed countries, where IM is used intensively nowadays. Until a certain moment in time, this depopulation in developed countries will be compensated by the explosive growth of the population in African countries located south of the Sahara. Calculations in our model reveal that the peak of the human population of 8.52 billion people will be reached in 2050, then it will irreversibly go down to 7.9 billion people by 2100, if developed countries do not take timely effective measures to overcome the process of information depopulation. 展开更多
关键词 Explosive Population Growth Demographic Transition DEMOGRAPHIC Technological and Information Imperatives Phenomenological models of The Demographic Dynamics Demographic Forecast in the age of Intelligent Machines
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Cost-effectiveness analysis of population-based screening of hepatocellular carcinoma: Comparing ultrasonography with two-stage screening 被引量:13
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作者 Ming-Jeng Kuo Hsiu-Hsi Chen +8 位作者 Chi-Ling Chen Jean Ching-Yuan Fann Sam Li-Sheng Chen Sherry Yueh-Hsia Chiu Yu-Min Lin Chao-Sheng Liao Hung-Chuen Chang Yueh-Shih Lin Amy Ming-Fang Yen 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2016年第12期3460-3470,共11页
AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of two populationbased hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) screening programs, two-stage biomarker-ultrasound method and mass screening using abdominal ultrasonography(AUS).METHODS: In ... AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of two populationbased hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) screening programs, two-stage biomarker-ultrasound method and mass screening using abdominal ultrasonography(AUS).METHODS: In this study, we applied a Markov decision model with a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon for the general population-based cohorts in an area with high HCC incidence, such as Taiwan. The accuracy of biomarkers and ultrasonography was estimated from published meta-analyses. The costs of surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment were based on a combination of published literature, Medicare payments, and medical expenditure at the National Taiwan University Hospital. The main outcome measure was cost per lifeyear gained with a 3% annual discount rate. RESULTS: The results show that the mass screening using AUS was associated with an incremental costeffectiveness ratio of USD39825 per life-year gained, whereas two-stage screening was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD49733 per life-year gained, as compared with no screening. Screening programs with an initial screening age of 50 years old and biennial screening interval were the most cost-effective. These findings were sensitive to the costs of screening tools and the specificity of biomarker screening.CONCLUSION: Mass screening using AUS is more cost effective than two-stage biomarker-ultrasound screening. The most optimal strategy is an initial screening age at 50 years old with a 2-year inter-screening interval. 展开更多
关键词 Two-stage biomarker-ultrasound screening One-stage abdominal ultrasonography screening Markov model COST-EFFECTIVENESS Sensitivity analysis age
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Arsenic variability and groundwater age in three water supply wells in southeast New Hampshire 被引量:3
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作者 Joseph P.Levitt James R.Degnan +1 位作者 Sarah M.Flanagan Bryant C.Jurgens 《Geoscience Frontiers》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2019年第5期1669-1683,共15页
Three wells in New Hampshire were sampled bimonthly over three years to evaluate the temporal variability of arsenic concentrations and groundwater age.All samples had measurable concentrations of arsenic throughout t... Three wells in New Hampshire were sampled bimonthly over three years to evaluate the temporal variability of arsenic concentrations and groundwater age.All samples had measurable concentrations of arsenic throughout the entire sampling period and concentrations in individual wells had a mean variation of more than 7 μg/L.The time series data from this sampling effort showed that arsenic concentrations ranged from a median of 4 mg/L in a glacial aquifer well (SGW-65) to medians of 19 μg/L and 37 μg/L in wells (SGW-93 and KFW-87) screened in the bedrock aquifer,respectively.These high arsenic concentrations were associated with the consistently high pH (median ≥- 8) and low dissolved oxygen (median <0.1 mg/L) in the bedrock aquifer wells,which is typical of fractured crystalline bedrock aquifers in New Hampshire.Groundwater from the glacial aquifer often has high dissolved oxygen,but in this case was consistently low.The pH also is generally acidic in the glacial aquifer but in this case was slightly alkaline (median =7.5).Also,sorption sites may be more abundant in glacial aquifer deposits than in fractured bedrock which may contribute to lower arsenic concentrations.Mean groundwater ages were less than 50 years old in all three wells and correlated with conservative tracer concentrations,such as chloride;however,mean age was not directly correlated with arsenic concentrations.Arsenic concentrations at KFW-87 did correlate with water levels,in addition,there was a seasonal pattern,which suggests that either the timing of or multiple sampling efforts may be important to define the full range of arsenic concentrations in domestic bedrock wells.Since geochemically reduced conditions and alkaline pHs are common to both bedrock and glacial aquifer wells in this study,groundwater age correlates less strongly with arsenic concentrations than geochemical conditions.There also is evidence of direct hydraulic connection between the glacial and bedrock aquifers,which can influence arsenic concentrations.Correlations between arsenic concentrations and the age of the old fraction of water in SGW-65 and the age of the young fraction of water in SGW-93 suggest that water in the two aquifers may be mixing or at least some of the deeper,older water captured by the glacial aquifer well may be from a similar source as the shallow young groundwater from the bedrock aquifer.The contrast in arsenic concentrations in the two aquifers may be because of increased adsorption capacity of glacio-fluvial sediments,which can limit contaminants more than fractured rock.In addition,this study illustrates that long residence times are not necessary to achieve more geochemically evolved conditions such as high pH and reduced conditions as is typically found with older water in other regions. 展开更多
关键词 ARSENIC VARIABILITY GEOCHEMICAL time series age tracers GROUNDWATER age modeling
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Simulating Phenology,Growth and Yield of Transplanted Rice at Different Seedling Ages in Northern Iran Using ORYZA2000 被引量:5
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作者 B.Amiri LARIJANI Z.T.SARVESTANI +2 位作者 Gh.NEMATZADEH A.M.MANSCHADI E.AMIRI 《Rice science》 SCIE 2011年第4期321-334,共14页
Rice crop growth and yield in the north Iran are affected by crop duration and phenology.The purpose of this study was to calibrate and validate the ORYZA2000 model under potential production based on experimental dat... Rice crop growth and yield in the north Iran are affected by crop duration and phenology.The purpose of this study was to calibrate and validate the ORYZA2000 model under potential production based on experimental data for simulating and quantifying the phenological development,crop duration and yield prediction of rice crop influenced by different seedling ages.In order to calibrate and validate the crop parameters of ORYZA2000 model,a two-year field experiment was conducted under potential growth condition for transplanted lowland rice during the 2008-2009 rice growing seasons,using three rice varieties with three seedling ages(17,24 and 33 days old).The results showed that the seedling age changed crop duration from 7 to 10 d.The ORYZA2000 model could predict well,but consistently underestimated the length of growing period.The range in normalized root mean square error(RMSEn) values for each phenological stage was between 4% and 6%.From our evaluation,we concluded that ORYZA2000 was sufficiently accurate in simulation of yield,leaf area index(LAI) and biomass of crop organs over time.On average,RMSEn values were 13%-15% for total biomass,18%-21% for green leaf biomass,17%-20% for stem biomass,16%-23% for panicle biomass and 24%-26% for LAI.The RMSEn values for final yield and biomass were 12%-16% and 6%-9%,respectively.Generally,the model simulated LAI,an exceeded measured value for younger seedlings,and best-fit was observed for older seedlings of short-duration varieties.The results revealed that the ORYZA2000 model can be applied as a supportive research tool for selecting the most appropriate strategies for rice yield improvement across the north Iran. 展开更多
关键词 RICE crop model ORYZA2000 PHENOLOGY seedling age
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The complexities underlying age-related macular degeneration: could amyloid beta play an important role? 被引量:6
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作者 Savannah A. Lynn Eloise Keeling +4 位作者 Rosie Munday Gagandeep Gabha Helen Griffiths Andrew J.Lotery J.Arjuna Ratnayaka 《Neural Regeneration Research》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第4期538-548,共11页
e-related macular degeneration (AMD) causes irreversible loss of central vision for which there is no effective treatment. Incipient pathology is thought to occur in the retina for many years before AMD manifests fr... e-related macular degeneration (AMD) causes irreversible loss of central vision for which there is no effective treatment. Incipient pathology is thought to occur in the retina for many years before AMD manifests from midlife onwards to affect a large proportion of the elderly. Although genetic as well as non-genetic/environmental risks are recognized, its complex aetiology makes it difficult to identify susceptibility, or indeed what type of AMD develops or how quickly it progresses in different individuals. Here we summarize the literature describing how the Alzheimer's-linked amyloid beta (Aβ) group of misfolding proteins accumulate in the retina. The discovery of this key driver of Alzheimer's disease in the senescent retina was unexpected and surprising, enabling an altogether different perspective of AMD. We argue that Aβ fundamentally differs from other substances which accumulate in the ageing retina, and discuss our latest findings from a mouse model in which physiological amounts of Aβ were subretinally-injected to recapitulate salient features of early AMD within a short period. Our discoveries as well as those of others suggest the pattern of Aβ accumulation and pathology in donor aged/AMD tissues are closely reproduced in mice, including late-stage AMD phenotypes, which makes them highly attractive to study dynamic aspects of Aβ-mediated retinopathy. Furthermore, we discuss our findings revealing how Aβ behaves at single-cell resolution, and consider the long-term implications for neuroretinal function. We propose Aβ as a key element in switching to a diseased retinal phenotype, which is now being used as a biomarker for latestage AMD. 展开更多
关键词 amyloid beta (Aβ) retinal neurons RETINA mouse models age related macular degeneration(AMD)
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