Computational Experiments for Complex Social Systems:Experiment Design and Generative Explanation

Powered by advanced information technology,more and more complex systems are exhibiting characteristics of the cyber-physical-social systems(CPSS).In this context,computational experiments method has emerged as a novel approach for the design,analysis,management,control,and integration of CPSS,which can realize the causal analysis of complex systems by means of“algorithmization”of“counterfactuals”.However,because CPSS involve human and social factors(e.g.,autonomy,initiative,and sociality),it is difficult for traditional design of experiment(DOE)methods to achieve the generative explanation of system emergence.To address this challenge,this paper proposes an integrated approach to the design of computational experiments,incorporating three key modules:1)Descriptive module:Determining the influencing factors and response variables of the system by means of the modeling of an artificial society;2)Interpretative module:Selecting factorial experimental design solution to identify the relationship between influencing factors and macro phenomena;3)Predictive module:Building a meta-model that is equivalent to artificial society to explore its operating laws.Finally,a case study of crowd-sourcing platforms is presented to illustrate the application process and effectiveness of the proposed approach,which can reveal the social impact of algorithmic behavior on“rider race”.

Enhancing the Efficiency of Enterprise Shutdowns for Environmental Protection:An Agent-Based Modeling Approach with High Spatial–Temporal Resolution Data

Top-down environmental policies aim to mitigate environmental risks but inevitably lead to economic losses due to the market entry or exit of enterprises.This study developed a universal dynamic agent-based supply chain model to achieve tradeoffs between environmental risk reduction and economic sus-tainability.The model was used to conduct high-resolution daily simulations of the dynamic shifts in enterprise operations and their cascading effects on supply chain networks.It includes production,con-sumption,and transportation agents,attributing economic features to supply chain components and cap-turing their interactions.It also accounts for adaptive responses to daily external shocks and replicates realistic firm behaviors.By coupling high spatial-temporal resolution firm-level data from 18916 chemical enterprises,this study investigates the economic and environmental impacts of an environmen-tal policy resulting in the closure of 1800 chemical enterprises over three years.The results revealed a significant economic loss of 25.8 billion USD,ranging from 23.8 billion to 31.8 billion USD.Notably,over 80%of this loss was attributed to supply chain propagation.Counterfactual analyses indicated that imple-menting a staggered shutdown strategy prevented 18.8%of supply chain losses,highlighting the impor-tance of a gradual policy implementation to prevent abrupt supply chain disruptions.Furthermore,the study highlights the effectiveness of a multi-objective policy design in reducing economic losses(about 29%)and environmental risks(about 40%),substantially enhancing the efficiency of the environmental policy.The high-resolution simulations provide valuable insights for policy designers to formulate strategies with staggered implementation and multiple objectives to mitigate supply chain losses and environmental risks and ensure a sustainable future.

Computational Intelligence Determines Effective Rationality

Rationality is a fundamental concept in economics. Most researchers will accept that human beings are not fully rational. Herbert Simon suggested that we are ＂bounded rational＂. However, it is very difficult to quantify ＂bounded rationality＂, and therefore it is difficult to pinpoint its impact to all those economic theories that depend on the assumption of full rationality. Ariel Rubinstein proposed to model bounded rationality by explicitly specifying the decision makers＇ decision-making procedures. This paper takes a computational point of view to Rubinstein＇s approach. From a computational point of view, decision procedures can be encoded in algorithms and heuristics. We argue that, everything else being equal, the effective rationality of an agent is determined by its computational power - we refer to this as the computational intelligence determines effective rationality （CIDER） theory. This is not an attempt to propose a unifying definition of bounded rationality. It is merely a proposal of a computational point of view of bounded rationality. This way of interpreting bounded rationality enables us to （computationally） reason about economic systems when the full rationality assumption is relaxed.

Agent-Based Modeling: An Application to Natural Resource Management

Computer programs have been categorized as a useful tool to evaluate the complexity of systems. In fact, agent-based modeling (ABM) is considered a new method to model complex systems characterized by the role of independent and interrelating agents. Simulations contribute in estimating and comprehending emerging behaviors that require the development of new regulations for local agents that would make improvements to the system. This paper offers an example of a methodology and a process utilized to develop a simulation model named Befergyonet, an ABM used to conduct computer simulations within a spatio-intertemporal environment. The methodology discussed in this paper is intended solely to stimulate the use of innovative computer programs to simulate complex systems as an approach to represent real world events and may be a methodological guide for readers interested in developing their own ABM.

Evaluating the Economic and Environmental Impacts of a Global GMO Ban

The objective of this research is to assess the global economic and greenhouse gas emission impacts of banning GMO crops. This is done by modeling two counterfac-tual scenarios and evaluating them apart and in combination using a well-know Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, GTAP-BIO. The first scenario models the impact of a global GMO ban. The second scenario models the impact of increased GMO penetration. The focus is on the price and welfare impacts, and land use change greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with GMO technologies. Much of the prior work on the economic impacts of GMO technology has relied on a combination of partial equilibrium analysis and econometric techniques. However, CGE model-ling is a way of analyzing economy-wide impacts that take into account the linkages in the global economy. Here the goal is to contribute to the literature on the benefits of GMO technology by estimating the impacts on price, supply and welfare. Food price impacts range from an increase of 0.27% to 2.2%, depending on the region. Total welfare losses associated with loss of GMO technology total up to $9.75 bil-lion. The loss of GMO traits as an intensification technology has not only economic impacts, but also environmental ones. The full environmental analysis of GMO is not undertaken here. Rather we model the land use change owing to the loss of GMO traits and calculate the associated increase in GHG emissions. We predict a substan-tial increase in GHG emissions if GMO technology is banned.

Lung cancer screening: Computed tomography or chest radiographs?

Worldwide, lung cancer is the leading cause of mortalitydue to malignancy. The vast majority of cases of lung cancer are smoking related and the most effective way of reducing lung cancer incidence and mortality is by smoking cessation. In the Western world, smoking cessation policies have met with limited success. The other major means of reducing lung cancer deaths is to diagnose cases at an earlier more treatable stage employing screening programmes using chest radiographs or low dose computed tomography. In many countries smoking is still on the increase, and the sheer scale of the problem limits the affordability of such screening programmes. This short review article will evaluate the current evidence and potential areas of research which may benefit policy making across the world.

Simulated Scenarios for China＇s Economic Growth： 2011-2030

Considering domestic and international impact on economic growth, this paper adopts a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model to simulate three scenarios for China＇s economic growth. Results indicate that during the 12^th Five-year Plan period （2011：2015）, China＇s economic growth is expected to reach 8 per cent and enjoy great potential for rapid growth in the mid- and long-term run. Future economic growth is mainly confronted by the risk of unbalanced economic development and growing resources and environmental pressures. Whether this potential is in transforming its development pattern. tapped depends on China＇s achievements

Analysis of Functions of Metaphor in Computer English

Metaphor is a universal language skill in daily life.It is also pervasive in computer English,which is not realized by most people.However,Lakoff's conceptual metaphor theory provides us an opportunity to pay close attention to these metaphors in computer English and offers us a new way to explore and learn computer English.Based on the conceptual metaphor theory,this paper presents a cognitive analysis on the functions of metaphor in computer English,especially its cognitive function and economical function.

发展旅游业新质生产力,推动生产函数的迭代和跃迁

对旅游业历史发展过程中生产力增长路径进行了分析,从生产函数的演进视角对新质生产力的内涵及其推动旅游业高质量发展的机理进行了剖析,指出发展壮大旅游业新质生产力的本质是推动生产函数的迭代和跃迁,表现为旅游发展模态的两个转变:(1)旅游经济增长方式从传统的投入驱动、效率驱动向计算经济、数智驱动转变;(2)旅游运营模式从“规模化、标准化”“小规模、非标准化”转变为“大规模个性化”和“超个性化”定制。政策制定和发展应着眼于解决3个关键问题:一是新型生产要素的有效投入应不断增长;二是新旧生产力应充分融合,使传统要素生产率得以提高;三是旅游业全要素生产率要不断提升,使新型生产要素对经济的贡献度逐步提高。

中国高新技术产品进口关税减让的经济效应

降低高新技术产品进口关税是中国践行扩大开放承诺的有力措施,对于以高新技术产业发展推动高水平科技自立自强具有重要意义。运用可计算局部均衡模型,从产业层面考察了中国高新技术产品进口关税减让的经济影响。研究发现:中国高新技术产品进口关税税率下调对进口的促进效应大于出口,其效应随降税幅度的提高而递增,且现有关税税率越高,降税的贸易效应越大;中国高新技术产品的内销额和消费者价格将减少,但生产者价格和产量变化不大;中国高新技术产业的消费者剩余大幅提高,生产者剩余变化幅度有限,但政府进口关税收入下降明显,所以高新技术产品的社会净福利将减少,其中广播、电视和通讯设备类产品的净福利损失最大,办公、会计和计算机器类产品与航空航天产品的净福利损失较小。研究结果可为中国高新技术产品关税政策调整提供依据,也能为中国主动扩大进口政策制定提供参考。

产品差异化和市场开放度对城市群空间结构的影响研究

城市群是提高地区经济增长和深入实施区域协调发展战略过程中的重要载体。本文尝试结合“新”新经济地理学模型和基于agent计算经济学对多重异质性下城市差异化对企业和人口的空间演化影响进行研究,建立了一个企业生产效率与规模、居民工资等多重异质性的两区域空间经济模型对城市间人口和企业迁移进行动态模拟以研究空间经济演化过程。结果表明:(1)无论是否存在市场进入和退出机制,小城市内部工业产品的差异性越大,越有利于企业和人口向小城市迁移,企业和人口倾向于分散。但是存在市场机制能提高城市内产品差异化对人口和企业迁移的吸引力。(2)城市群中小城市要更多的企业和人口,需要继续鼓励创新生产差异化产品,使城市内的产品更加多样化和差异化。(3)为了使城市内产品差异化发挥更大的作用,整个地区需要更加健全企业进入和退出的市场机制,使得有利可图的资本可以进入市场,同时亏损的企业能够退出市场或者转型升级和改制。

Factors Influencing the Successful Adoption of Human Resource Information System: The Content of Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority

This study examines the key factors that have impact on the successful adoption of Human Resource Information System (HRIS) within the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA)/Jordan. In order to accomplish the purpose of the study four critical factors are inquired. So, four critical factors are inquired: First, TAM Model (Perceived Ease of Use (PEOU) and Perceived Usefulness (PU)). Second, Information Technology Infrastructure (ITI). Third, Top Management Support (TMS). Finally, Individual Experience with Computer (IEC). The research model was applied to collect data from the questionnaires answered by 45 users of HRIS as a source of primary data, based on a convenience sample the response rate was about 91%. In addition, the results were analyzed by utilizing the Statistical Package for Social Software (SPSS). Furthermore, the findings were analyzed;multiple Regression analysis indicated that all research variables have significant relationship on successful adoption of HRIS. The findings indicated IT infrastructures have a positive and significant effect on the successful adoption of HRIS. But there is no significant of PU, PEOU, TMS, and IEC on the successful adoption of HRIS. Finally, the results indicated that no significant statistical differences of demographic characteristics on HRIS adoption. Depending on the research’s findings;the researchers proposed a set of recommendations for better adoption of HRIS in SEZA.

量子经济理论发展动态及应用综述

量子经济理论是一种前沿且复杂的经济学分支,其基本概念包括量子态、量子叠加和量子纠缠等,以测不准原理、对应原理、量子原理、可观察原理和最小作用量原理等为基本原理,研究量子经济活动规律及其原理应用的理论。目前量子经济理论仍处于探索和发展阶段,尽管已取得一定的成果,如在优化投资组合、加强数据安全、提高决策效率、探索新的经济模型等方面已经显现其独有的作用,但这一理论仍尚未成熟,还存在诸多局限,如量子计算技术尚不成熟、跨学科合作交流不足、产业化成本高昂、人才稀缺、相关政策空白等。因此,该理论仍需进一步拓展和应用转化。鉴于量子经济理论的广阔前景和巨大潜力,本文系统梳理其发展动态、主要模型及其应用,为全面掌握量子经济理论发展新动向及其应用提供参考。

资源约束下绿色算力系统风险响应模型

绿色算力系统各节点间相互依赖,从底层架构到上层应用,节点关联程度高,呈现出智能联动、一体化等特征,体系内节点风险具有向关联节点传播和扩散的特点,对整个算力系统体系稳健运营带来威胁,并且对风险点的溯源抑制和风险链路的分析阻隔需要花费较高技术和资源成本。因此,提出资源约束下经济最优的绿色算力系统风险区域响应模型。首先,设计混合风险节点功率弹性压缩和过负载节点退出机制的响应策略,缓解高负载系统节点在局部区域内的聚集度。其次,在资源约束视角下,构建计及经济性最优和安全性最高的绿色算力系统区域风险评价指标,据此设计绿色算力系统风险区域应急策略,并基于群体自适应全局优化思想利用差分进化算法对响应模型进行求解,实现最优经济成本下的系统节点区域隐患抑制。最后,进行仿真实证分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。

长江经济带环境政务新媒体的传播图景研究——以11个省级环境政务微博为例

在进一步推进长江经济带高质量发展背景下,环境政务新媒体建设对长江经济带生态环境治理体系和治理能力现代化具有重要意义。文章基于计算传播方法,采集了2019年-2021年长江经济带11个省级环境政务微博的全量数据,结合更新数量与频率、内容原创度、主题与高频词、粉丝数量和转发、点赞、评论数量指标呈现长江经济带环境政务微博的传播图景。从信息发布、互动交流和办事服务三个面向评估长江经济带环境政务微博发展现状并给予相应对策,以期提升长江经济带环境政务微博影响力,以高质量生态环境支撑长江经济带高质量发展。

基于物联网技术的智能供水监管系统标准化构建

为了实现精细化用水监管,针对目前城市供水监管的现状,文章基于物联网技术构建了高效、便捷的智能供水监管系统,阐述了系统的标准化构建逻辑、子系统设计及应用特点,为城市供水监管提供了新思路和标准。

大智移云时代面向新财经会计人才培养体系生态系统的构建

随着“四新”建设的推进,“新财经”已然成为大智移云的新时代财经教育的关键着力点。大智移云时代财务工作发生了颠覆性变革,跨界融合是必然趋势。文章探讨当前会计人才培养面临的新挑战,会计学科如何紧跟时代步伐,构建一个多学科跨界融汇和多要素互动融通新财经会计人才培养体系生态系统,以适应大智移云时代对财经会计人才的需求。

2016—2035年中国经济总量及其结构分析预测

本文综合考虑了未来影响中国潜在经济增长的若干主要因素及其传导机制,构建了经济系统模型,预测了未来20年中国的经济规模及其结构变化。在基准情景下,2016—2020、2021—2025、2026—2030和2031—2035年四个时期我国国内生产总值(GDP)增长率分别为6.4%、5.6%、4.9%和4.5%。2035年中国不变价GDP规模将为2000年的10.06倍、2010年的3.99倍、2020年的2.02倍。未来20年内,以投资拉动为主的经济增长模式将逐步转变为以消费需求为主导的发展新模式。面对发达经济体可能低速增长的国际环境以及国内新增劳动力逐渐减少的情况,中国经济需要加强研发和教育投入,提高投入效率和全要素生产率,推进技术进步和制造业的转型与升级;加快推动财税金融体制改革和收入分配体制改革,推进城镇化和第三产业发展。

工业云计算平台的研究与实践

云计算平台和云计算服务模式已成为后超算时代计算服务的主流载体和主流服务模式,其所蕴含的技术变革和创新服务模式将深刻影响到产业技术创新及产业竞争格局的发展,加快区域科技自主创新和区域经济结构调整的步伐。分析了云计算平台推动制造业创新发展的必然性,剖析了工业云平台的体系架构及其关键技术,并介绍了平台的开发、实现及典型应用实例。该平台已经服务北京区域经济体近100多家用户,有效地推动了区域经济体的创新发展。

国家经济安全政策模拟器的开发问题

国家经济安全是指一国经济在整体上不至于因某些社会、经济问题的演化而受到过大的打击和或损失过多的国民经济利益,并且能够避免或化解可能发生的局部性或全局性的社会!经济危机。21世纪初,这个问题受到了西方国家普遍重视,政策模拟器成为国家制定政策的科学工具。本文介绍了政策模拟器研究的发展概况,分析了当前的中国需求及建立政策模拟器的基础科学问题。