Complex adaptive system theory,agent-based modeling,and simulation in dominant technology formation

Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.

An agent-based model of agricultural land expansion in the mountain forest of Timor Island,Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.

Computation Tree Logic Model Checking of Multi-Agent Systems Based on Fuzzy Epistemic Interpreted Systems

Model checking is an automated formal verification method to verify whether epistemic multi-agent systems adhere to property specifications.Although there is an extensive literature on qualitative properties such as safety and liveness,there is still a lack of quantitative and uncertain property verifications for these systems.In uncertain environments,agents must make judicious decisions based on subjective epistemic.To verify epistemic and measurable properties in multi-agent systems,this paper extends fuzzy computation tree logic by introducing epistemic modalities and proposing a new Fuzzy Computation Tree Logic of Knowledge(FCTLK).We represent fuzzy multi-agent systems as distributed knowledge bases with fuzzy epistemic interpreted systems.In addition,we provide a transformation algorithm from fuzzy epistemic interpreted systems to fuzzy Kripke structures,as well as transformation rules from FCTLK formulas to Fuzzy Computation Tree Logic(FCTL)formulas.Accordingly,we transform the FCTLK model checking problem into the FCTL model checking.This enables the verification of FCTLK formulas by using the fuzzy model checking algorithm of FCTL without additional computational overheads.Finally,we present correctness proofs and complexity analyses of the proposed algorithms.Additionally,we further illustrate the practical application of our approach through an example of a train control system.

The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts:A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling

Deterministic compartment models(CMs)and stochastic models,including stochastic CMs and agent-based models,are widely utilized in epidemic modeling.However,the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood.The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible,exposed,infectious,and recovered(SEIR)model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.We demonstrated the equivalence of the numerical solution of CMs using the Euler scheme and their stochastic counterparts through theoretical analysis and simulations.Based on this equivalence,we proposed an efficient model calibration method that could replicate the exact solution of CMs in the corresponding stochastic models through parameter adjustment.The advancement in calibration techniques enhanced the accuracy of stochastic modeling in capturing the dynamics of epidemics.However,it should be noted that discrete-time stochastic models cannot perfectly reproduce the exact solution of continuous-time CMs.Additionally,we proposed a new stochastic compartment and agent mixed model as an alternative to agent-based models for large-scale population simulations with a limited number of agents.This model offered a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy.The results of this research contributed to the comparison and unification of deterministic CMs and stochastic models in epidemic modeling.Furthermore,the results had implications for the development of hybrid models that integrated the strengths of both frameworks.Overall,the present study has provided valuable epidemic modeling techniques and their practical applications for understanding and controlling the spread of infectious diseases.

Discovering Latent Variables for the Tasks With Confounders in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Efficient exploration in complex coordination tasks has been considered a challenging problem in multi-agent reinforcement learning(MARL). It is significantly more difficult for those tasks with latent variables that agents cannot directly observe. However, most of the existing latent variable discovery methods lack a clear representation of latent variables and an effective evaluation of the influence of latent variables on the agent. In this paper, we propose a new MARL algorithm based on the soft actor-critic method for complex continuous control tasks with confounders. It is called the multi-agent soft actor-critic with latent variable(MASAC-LV) algorithm, which uses variational inference theory to infer the compact latent variables representation space from a large amount of offline experience.Besides, we derive the counterfactual policy whose input has no latent variables and quantify the difference between the actual policy and the counterfactual policy via a distance function. This quantified difference is considered an intrinsic motivation that gives additional rewards based on how much the latent variable affects each agent. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on two collaboration tasks with confounders, and the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of MASAC-LV compared to other baseline algorithms.

Dynamics of Land Use/Land Cover Considering Ecosystem Services for a Dense-Population Watershed Based on a Hybrid Dual-Subject Agent and Cellular Automaton Modeling Approach

Land use/land cover represents the interactive and comprehensive influences between human activities and natural conditions,leading to potential conflicts among natural and human-related issues as well as among stakeholders.This study introduced economic standards for farmers.A hybrid approach(CA-ABM)of cellular automaton(CA)and an agent-based model(ABM)was developed to effectively deal with social and land-use synergic issues to examine human–environment interactions and projections of land-use conversions for a humid basin in south China.Natural attributes and socioeconomic data were used to analyze land use/land cover and its drivers of change.The major modules of the CA-ABM are initialization,migration,assets,land suitability,and land-use change decisions.Empirical estimates of the factors influencing the urban land-use conversion probability were captured using parameters based on a spatial logistic regression(SLR)model.Simultaneously,multicriteria evaluation(MCE)and Markov models were introduced to obtain empirical estimates of the factors affecting the probability of ecological land conversion.An agent-based CA-SLR-MCE-Markov(ABCSMM)land-use conversion model was proposed to explore the impacts of policies on land-use conversion.This model can reproduce observed land-use patterns and provide links for forest transition and urban expansion to land-use decisions and ecosystem services.The results demonstrated land-use simulations under multi-policy scenarios,revealing the usefulness of the model for normative research on land-use management.

Event-triggered robust cooperative output regulation for a class of linear multi-agent systems with an unknown exosystem

This paper investigates the robust cooperative output regulation problem for a class of heterogeneousuncertain linear multi-agent systems with an unknown exosystem via event-triggered control (ETC). By utilizingthe internal model approach and the adaptive control technique, a distributed adaptive internal model isconstructed for each agent. Then, based on this internal model, a fully distributed ETC strategy composed ofa distributed event-triggered adaptive output feedback control law and a distributed dynamic event-triggeringmechanism is proposed, in which each agent updates its control input at its own triggering time instants. It isshown that under the proposed ETC strategy, the robust cooperative output regulation problem can be solvedwithout requiring either the global information associated with the communication topology or the bounds ofthe uncertain or unknown parameters in each agent and the exosystem. A numerical example is provided toillustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

A Cautionary Note on the Application of GIS in Spatial Optimization Modeling

Spatial optimization as part of spatial modeling has been facilitated significantly by integration with GIS techniques. However, for certain research topics, applying standard GIS techniques may create problems which require attention. This paper serves as a cautionary note to demonstrate two problems associated with applying GIS in spatial optimization, using a capacitated p-median facility location optimization problem as an example. The first problem involves errors in interpolating spatial variations of travel costs from using kriging, a common set of techniques for raster files. The second problem is inaccuracy in routing performed on a graph directly created from polyline shapefiles, a common vector file type. While revealing these problems, the paper also suggests remedies. Specifically, interpolation errors can be eliminated by using agent-based spatial modeling while the inaccuracy in routing can be improved through altering the graph topology by splitting the long edges of the shapefile. These issues suggest the need for caution in applying GIS in spatial optimization study.

The Multi-Agent Modeling and Calculated Analysis of Shop Logistics Scheduling in the Manufacturing Enterprises

In this paper,the multi-agent model about shop logistics is set up. This model has 8 agents: raw materials stock agent,process agent,testing agent,transition agent,production information agent,scheduling agent,process agent and stock agent. The scheduling agent has three subagents: manager agent (MA),resource agent (RA) and part agent (PA). MA,PA and RA are communicating equally that guarantees agility of the whole MAS system. The part tasks pass between MA,RA and PA as an integer,which can guarantee the consistency of the data. We use a detailed example about shop logistics scheduling in a semiconductor company to explain the principle. In this example,we use two scheduling strategies: FCFS and SPT. The result data indicates that the average flow time and lingering ratio are changed using different strategy. It is proves that the multi-agent scheduling is useful.

Multi-agent Based Modeling of Manufacturing Network

An intelligent manufacturing system is modeled currently from the viewpoint of manufacturing applications,and the network platform’s influence to manufacturing applications is not considered adequately. However any bottleneck in service oriented architecture (SOA) for the manufacturing network can affect the agility of the IT environment. In this paper,to achieve a trade-off between manufacturing resources and network resources,the manufacturing network is modeled with multi-agent,in which two kinds of basic elements,the manufacturing application unit and the network carrier of manufacturing information,are presented. And their main characters are described by colored petri net. The manufacturing application model drives the network platform that inversely provides this application model technology supports. The proposed multi-agent system is demonstrated through an example integration scenario involving production plan,resources management and execution subsystems. And the result suggests that analyzing and designing the system architecture of networked manufacturing should give due attention to the operation system as well as manufacturing applications.

On modeling and analyzing multi-agent systems using π-calculus

Dynamic architecture of multi-agent systems （MAS） is important for critical systems. As the existing formal specifications of MAS cannot describe its dynamic architecture, a formal approach using n-calculus is presented, which is suited for the describing and analyzing of concurrent MAS with dynamic topology, n-calculus describes the belief-desireintention （BDI） model that represents agent＇s mental states and provides many useful facilities to analyze MAS model such as deadlock, behavior equivalence, and model checking. To illustrate the favorable representation capability of n-calculus, an example of dynamic multi-agent systems in e-commerce is provided. Finally, by using an existing n-calculus supporting tool, MAS model and some key behaviors properties are analyzed and verified.

Agent-Based Modeling: An Application to Natural Resource Management

Computer programs have been categorized as a useful tool to evaluate the complexity of systems. In fact, agent-based modeling (ABM) is considered a new method to model complex systems characterized by the role of independent and interrelating agents. Simulations contribute in estimating and comprehending emerging behaviors that require the development of new regulations for local agents that would make improvements to the system. This paper offers an example of a methodology and a process utilized to develop a simulation model named Befergyonet, an ABM used to conduct computer simulations within a spatio-intertemporal environment. The methodology discussed in this paper is intended solely to stimulate the use of innovative computer programs to simulate complex systems as an approach to represent real world events and may be a methodological guide for readers interested in developing their own ABM.

Dynamic Behavior Modeling in Multi-Agent System By Evolutionary Programming

In a multi-agent system, each agent must adapt itself to the environment and coordinate with other agents dynamically. TO predict or cooperate with the behavior of oiller agents. An agent should dynamically establish and evolve the cooperative behavior model of itself. In this paper, we represent the behavior model of an agent as a f-mite state machine and propose a new method of dynamically evolving the behavior model of an agent by evolutionary programming.

技术创新难度对高科技企业最优创新投入的影响——基于Agent-Based Model的分析

通过Agent-Based Model模拟了高技术企业的发展环境,分析了不同技术创新门槛下企业技术的发展状况。研究发现,高技术创新门槛阻碍了市场最高技术水平的发展,但能提升市场平均技术水平及公司数目。同时,企业研发活动存在能实现最大技术增长的最优创新研发投入比例,并且随着技术创新门槛的提升,企业的研发政策向模仿性投入倾斜。由此可知,针对有高技术创新门槛的高科技企业,政府应提升专利保护强度以影响企业的最优研发政策,保证高新技术产业的健康发展。

Resilience Against Replay Attacks:A Distributed Model Predictive Control Scheme for Networked Multi-Agent Systems

In this paper,a resilient distributed control scheme against replay attacks for multi-agent networked systems subject to input and state constraints is proposed.The methodological starting point relies on a smart use of predictive arguments with a twofold aim:1)Promptly detect malicious agent behaviors affecting normal system operations;2)Apply specific control actions,based on predictive ideas,for mitigating as much as possible undesirable domino effects resulting from adversary operations.Specifically,the multi-agent system is topologically described by a leader-follower digraph characterized by a unique leader and set-theoretic receding horizon control ideas are exploited to develop a distributed algorithm capable to instantaneously recognize the attacked agent.Finally,numerical simulations are carried out to show benefits and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

A goal-based approach for modeling and simulation of different types of system-of-systems

A system of systems(SoS)composes a set of independent constituent systems(CSs),where the degree of authority to control the independence of CSs varies,depending on different SoS types.Key researchers describe four SoS types with descending levels of central authority:directed,acknowledged,collaborative and virtual.Although the definitions have been recognized in SoS engineering,what is challenging is the difficulty of translating these definitions into models and simulation environments.Thus,we provide a goal-based method including a mathematical baseline to translate these definitions into more effective agent-based modeling and simulations.First,we construct the theoretical models of CS and SoS.Based on the theoretical models,we analyze the degree of authority influenced by SoS characteristics.Next,we propose a definition of SoS types by quantitatively explaining the degree of authority.Finally,we recognize the differences between acknowledged SoS and collaborative SoS using a migrating waterfowl flock by an agentbased model(ABM)simulation.This paper contributes to the SoS body of knowledge by increasing our understanding of the degree of authority in an SoS,so we may identify suitable SoS types to achieve SoS goals by modeling and simulation.

Immune multi-agent model using vaccine for cooperative air-defense system of systems for surface warship formation based on danger theory

Aiming at the problem on cooperative air-defense of surface warship formation, this paper maps the cooperative airdefense system of systems （SoS） for surface warship formation （CASoSSWF） to the biological immune system （BIS） according to the similarity of the defense mechanism and characteristics between the CASoSSWF and the BIS, and then designs the models of components and the architecture for a monitoring agent, a regulating agent, a killer agent, a pre-warning agent and a communicating agent by making use of the theories and methods of the artificial immune system, the multi-agent system （MAS）, the vaccine and the danger theory （DT）. Moreover a new immune multi-agent model using vaccine based on DT （IMMUVBDT） for the cooperative air-defense SoS is advanced. The immune response and immune mechanism of the CASoSSWF are analyzed. The model has a capability of memory, evolution, commendable dynamic environment adaptability and self-learning, and embodies adequately the cooperative air-defense mechanism for the CASoSSWF. Therefore it shows a novel idea for the CASoSSWF which can provide conception models for a surface warship formation operation simulation system.

Formal Modeling of Self-Adaptive Resource Scheduling in Cloud

A self-adaptive resource provisioning on demand is a critical factor in cloud computing.The selection of accurate amount of resources at run time is not easy due to dynamic nature of requests.Therefore,a self-adaptive strategy of resources is required to deal with dynamic nature of requests based on run time change in workload.In this paper we proposed a Cloud-based Adaptive Resource Scheduling Strategy(CARSS)Framework that formally addresses these issues and is more expressive than traditional approaches.The decision making in CARSS is based on more than one factors.TheMAPE-K based framework determines the state of the resources based on their current utilization.Timed-Arc Petri Net(TAPN)is used to model system formally and behaviour is expressed in TCTL,while TAPAAL model checker verifies the underline properties of the system.

Agent-Based Model: A Surging Tool to Simulate Infectious Diseases in the Immune System

Agent-based models (ABMs) are capable of constructing individual system components at different levels of representation to describe non-linear relationships between those components. Compared to a traditional mathematical modeling approach, agent-based models have an inherent spatial component with which they can easily describe local interactions and environmental heterogeneity. Furthermore, agent-based model maps interactions among agents inherently to the biological phenomenon by embedding the stochastic nature and dynamics transitions, thereby demonstrating suitability for the development of complex biological processes. Recently, an abundance of literature has presented application of agent-based modeling in the biological system. This review focuses on application of agent-based modeling to progression in simulation of infectious disease in the human immune system and discusses advantages and disadvantages of agent-based modeling application. Finally, potential implementation of agent-based modeling in relation to infectious disease modeling in future research is explored.

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. This model was built to approximately reproduce some essential findings that were previously reported for a rather complex model of diabetes progression. Our models are translations of basicelements of this previously reported system dynamics model of diabetes. The system dynamics model, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated US population, was disaggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. The four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease states in the system dynamics model while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent’s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. All three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model, although behavioral factors appeared to contribute more than the elderliness factor. The results illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.