According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 197...According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.展开更多
Population aging will become the norm in the Chinese society. Its challenge derives mainly from the failure of the existing socio-economic system to cope with the aging process. The intervention of public policy is th...Population aging will become the norm in the Chinese society. Its challenge derives mainly from the failure of the existing socio-economic system to cope with the aging process. The intervention of public policy is therefore inevitable. This paper argues that in order to comprehensively deal with the aging problem, it is not sufficient to merely readjust population policies, policy measures focusing on the aged or policies for one or another sector. Instead, we need to reconstruct the current public policy system from the perspective of social integration and a long-term development strategy. During the reconstruction process, efforts should be made not only to coordinate the population system with other social systems, but also to coordinate short-term goals with medium and longterm strategies. Accordingly, an authoritative permanent government coordinating agency should be established and, taking into account China＇s national conditions, should redefine the social role of senior citizens, solve practical problems related to support for the aged and support the sustainable development of an aging society.展开更多
基金The work on this paper was financial supported by China Scholarship Council ( CSC 20821103 ) Cooperation Program of Canada & China: CCUIPP-NSFC-2001(70142029). The author wishes to thank Professor M reret e of Ottawa University, Canada, for his technical guidance and valuable comments.
文摘According to the United Nations population projections, the population of the elderly is expected to roughly triple in China from 2000 to 2050, particularly when the generations who were born between the 1950s and 1970s move through the age structure, and also because people are living longer and fertility rates have fallen, population aging is expected to put pressure on government's fiscal balance through higher old-age security benefits and health-care expenditures. This work draws together the broad range of elements involved within a consistent framework, based on a computable dynamic general equilibrium model with an overlapping generation structure. Further analysis using model simulation illustrates that the alternative schemes for the benefit rate, retirement age and technological progress are likely to be beneficial, and that an obvious slow-down in the growth of living standards is likely to be avoided.
基金This paper is a phase result of the youth project of the National Social Science Foundation, ＂Research on the Functional Mechanism of Development-oriented Family Policy in China＇s Aged Care System＂ （11CRK008） and the 985 Project of Fudan University Special Fund, ＂Research on Pattern Innovation and Policy Adjustment in China＇s Population Administration＂ （07FCZD033）.
文摘Population aging will become the norm in the Chinese society. Its challenge derives mainly from the failure of the existing socio-economic system to cope with the aging process. The intervention of public policy is therefore inevitable. This paper argues that in order to comprehensively deal with the aging problem, it is not sufficient to merely readjust population policies, policy measures focusing on the aged or policies for one or another sector. Instead, we need to reconstruct the current public policy system from the perspective of social integration and a long-term development strategy. During the reconstruction process, efforts should be made not only to coordinate the population system with other social systems, but also to coordinate short-term goals with medium and longterm strategies. Accordingly, an authoritative permanent government coordinating agency should be established and, taking into account China＇s national conditions, should redefine the social role of senior citizens, solve practical problems related to support for the aged and support the sustainable development of an aging society.
