Global Change in Agricultural Flash Drought over the 21st Century

Agricultural flash droughts are high-impact phenomena, characterized by rapid soil moisture dry down. The ensuing dry conditions can persist for weeks to months, with detrimental effects on natural ecosystems and crop cultivation. Increases in the frequency of these rare events in a future warmer climate would have significant societal impact. This study uses an ensemble of 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP) models to investigate the projected change in agricultural flash drought during the 21st century. Comparison across geographical regions and climatic zones indicates that individual events are preceded by anomalously low relative humidity and precipitation, with long-term trends governed by changes in temperature, relative humidity, and soil moisture. As a result of these processes, the frequency of both upperlevel and root-zone flash drought is projected to more than double in the mid-and high latitudes over the 21st century, with hot spots developing in the temperate regions of Europe, and humid regions of South America, Europe, and southern Africa.

Agricultural intensity for sustainable regional development:A case study in peri-urban areas of Karawang Regency,Indonesia

Peri-urban areas are playing an increasingly crucial role in the agricultural development and intensification in Indonesia.Peri-urban agriculture is highly vulnerable to change compared with urban and rural agriculture,due to its location in transitional areas.Indicators of peri-urban agricultural intensity can help guide regional development.In this study,we assessed the sustainability of peri-urban areas based on agricultural intensity in Karawang Regency,Indonesia.We developed a village-based index to assess the region’s agricultural intensity by rescaling the village agriculture index(VAI)and combining the local sustainability index(LSI)with factor analysis.Since the unit of analysis is the village,we modified the LSI to the village sustainability index(VSI).In addition,we also developed a logical matrix analysis to determine the level of agricultural sustainability(LoAS)of each village.The combined results of the three indices(VAI,VSI,and LoAS)generated information about agricultural sustainability.The results indicated that peri-urban villages with high agricultural intensity tended to exhibit low levels of social welfare,economic development,and disaster risk.Moreover,high agricultural intensity did not necessarily ensure the prosperity of the people.Instead,there was the economic disparity among the villages in the study area.Encouraging diversity of agricultural intensity seems to be more critical than promoting agricultural intensity itself.Overall,this study highlights the distinctive characteristics and dynamic of peri-urban areas.New approaches,variables,and information regarding the combination of agricultural intensity and sustainability need to be developed as valuable tools for regional planning.

Thoughts on Pairing Assistance to Tibet for Promoting Agricultural High-quality Development in Southern Tibet from the Perspective of Agricultural Power

In the new era,there is an urgent need to further promote pairing assistance to Tibet,promote the simultaneous construction of a strong agriculture in Tibet and the China's Mainland,and compose a Chinese-style modernization.Southern Tibet,located in the southeastern part of the Tibet Autonomous Region,includes Shannan City and Nyingchi City,is a region assisted by four provincial partners including Hubei Province.This paper introduces the agricultural environment in southern Tibet,studies its agricultural characteristics,and analyzes the main issues of its pairing assistance.Taking forging the strong consciousness of the Chinese national community as the main line,the paper explores strategies for promoting agricultural high-quality development in southern Tibet through pairing assistance to Tibet from the perspective of agricultural power,and proposes some strategies,such as inheriting agricultural cultural heritage,promoting the upgrading of modern seed industry,enhancing the characteristic advantages of highland barley(naked barley)and animal husbandry industries,and developing edible fungi and cold water fish industries.

An agent-based model of agricultural land expansion in the mountain forest of Timor Island,Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.

About Asian Agricultural Research

Asian Agricultural Research(ISSN 1943-9903),founded in 2009,is a monthly comprehensive agricultural academic journal published and approved by the Library of Congress of the United States of America.Asian Agricultural Research is devoted to the study of Economic Management,Land Science,Resource and Environment,Agronomy and Horticulture,Animal Science,Biotechnology,Food Science,and Agro-product Processing,Agricultural Engineering,Agricultural Information Science,Rural Tourism,Agricultural Education,and Agricultural History.

About Asian Agricultural Research

Asian Agricultural Research(ISSN 1943-9903),founded in 2009,is a monthly comprehensive agricultural academic journal published and approved by the Library of Congress of the United States of America.

Mixed Integer Robust Programming Model for Multimodal Fresh Agricultural Products Terminal Distribution Network Design

The low efficiency and high cost of fresh agricultural product terminal distribution directly restrict the operation of the entire supply network.To reduce costs and optimize the distribution network,we construct a mixed integer programmingmodel that comprehensively considers tominimize fixed,transportation,fresh-keeping,time,carbon emissions,and performance incentive costs.We analyzed the performance of traditional rider distribution and robot distribution modes in detail.In addition,the uncertainty of the actual market demand poses a huge threat to the stability of the terminal distribution network.In order to resist uncertain interference,we further extend the model to a robust counterpart form.The results of the simulation show that the instability of random parameters will lead to an increase in the cost.Compared with the traditional rider distribution mode,the robot distribution mode can save 12.7%on logistics costs,and the distribution efficiency is higher.Our research can provide support for the design of planning schemes for transportation enterprise managers.

About Asian Agricultural Research

Asian Agricultural Research(ISSN 1943-9903),founded in 2009,is a monthly comprehensive agricultural academic journal published and approved by the Library of Congress of the United States of America.Asian Agricultural Research is devoted to the study of Economic Management,Land Science,Resource and Environment,Agronomy and Horticulture,Animal Science,Biotechnology,Food Science,and Agro-product Processing,Agricultural Engineering,Agricultural Information Science,Rural Tourism,Agricultural Education,and Agricultural History.

How to enhance agricultural plastic waste management in China?Insights from public participation

Agricultural plastics play a pivotal role in agricultural production.However,due to expensive costs,agricultural plastic waste management(APWM)encounters a vast funding gap.As one of the crucial stakeholders,the public deserves to make appropriate efforts for APWM.Accordingly,identifying whether the public is willing to pay for APWM and clarifying the decisions’driving pathways to explore initiatives for promoting their payment intentions are essential to address the dilemma confronting APWM.To this end,by applying the extended theory of planned behavior(TPB),the study conducted an empirical analysis based on 1,288 residents from four provinces(autonomous regions)of northern China.Results illustrate that:1)respondents hold generally positive and relatively strong payment willingness towards APWM;2)respondents’attitude(AT),subjective norm(SN),and perceived behavioral control(PBC)are positively correlated with their payment intentions(INT);3)environmental cognition(EC)and environmental emotion(EE)positively moderate the relationships between AT and INT,and between SN and INT,posing significant indirect impacts on INT.The study’s implications extend to informing government policies,suggesting that multi-entity cooperation,specifically public payment for APWM,can enhance agricultural non-point waste management.

Comparative Study of the Socioeconomic Characteristics and Digital Literacy Level of Agricultural Extension Personnel in Imo and Ebonyi States, South-East, Nigeria

The study comparatively analysed the socioeconomic characteristics and digital literacy level of Agricultural Extension personnel (AEP) in Ebonyi and Imo States, South-East, Nigeria. The specific objectives were to describe the socioeconomic characteristics of agricultural extension personnel in Ebonyi and Imo States, and to ascertain the digital literacy level of AEP in the studied states. Purposive sampling technique was used to select 312 Agricultural Extension personnel (132 from Ebonyi State Agricultural Development Program and 180 from Imo State Agricultural Development Program) for the study. Data were collected through the use of validated and structured questionnaire, and administered through the help of well-trained enumerators. Data were analysed using simple descriptive statistical tools such as percentages mean score, standard deviation and weighted mean. Findings indicated that they were more male in the both States (55.3% and 57.8%) for Ebonyi and Imo State respectively and that the average age of AEP in Ebonyi and Imo States were 44.7 years and 49.2 years respectively. It was further revealed that the majority (77.3% and 82.8%) had B.Sc./HND as their highest academic qualifications, belonged to professional organisations (62.1% and 75%), and were earning an average monthly income of N58,798 and N62,648 for Ebonyi and Imo State respectively. Also, it was revealed that their mean years of service were 12.4 years and 13.4 years for Ebonyi and Imo State respectively. Almost all of them (87.9% and 95.0%) own a smartphone, had access to the internet (80.3% and 90.0%), but do not own a laptop/ipad (82.6% and 72.8%) for Ebon-yi and Imo State respectively. Results further revealed that Agricultural extension personnel in both Ebonyi and Imo State respectively had low digital literacy level ( = 2.41 and 2.32). The study concluded that AEP in Ebonyi and Imo State respectively had similar socioeconomic characteristics and low level of digital literacy. The study recommended that the management of ADPs in both Ebonyi and Imo State should ensure the training of AEP in digital skills to enhance their digital literacy level to enable them use digital technologies in their work.

Innovation Analysis of Rural Agricultural Economic Management Model in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative

[Objectives]To explore innovative strategies for rural agricultural economic development in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative.[Methods]This research adopts the method of literature review and field research,systematically combs the research results related to the Belt and Road Initiative and rural agricultural economic management,and deeply understands the actual situation of rural agricultural economic management.[Results]The research shows that in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative,the rural agricultural economy is facing new development opportunities and challenges,but there are also some problems.In the new period,we should accelerate the innovative development of rural agricultural economy by promoting market-oriented reform,strengthening scientific and technological innovation,optimizing the industrial structure,deepening international cooperation and other measures.The Belt and Road Initiative provides an important opportunity for the innovation of rural agricultural economic management.Rural agricultural economic management should be actively integrated into the Belt and Road construction to improve the level of rural agricultural economic management.[Conclusions]This study provides useful exploration and reference for the innovation of rural agricultural economic management models,which helps to promote the healthy development of rural agricultural economy and achieve the goal of rural revitalization.

Optimization of Agricultural Industrial Structure in Changping District of Beijing Based on Grey Relational Analysis

In the economic development of Beijing,although the share of the total amount of agricultural industry in the overall economy is relatively low,it has an important impact on the daily life of residents,social stability and the development of other industries.Changping District,as an important agricultural production base of Beijing,its agricultural development has an indispensable strategic significance for the stability and growth of the entire regional economy.Therefore,it is very important to study the structure of agricultural industry in Changping District.Based on the detailed analysis of the agricultural industrial structure of Changping District,this paper uses the grey relation theory to analyze the different industries in the agricultural industrial structure of Changping District,including planting,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery and agricultural,forestry,service industries,in order to reveal the impact of these industries on the agricultural industrial structure of Changping District.Through this study,it comes up with specific and feasible suggestions for the optimization of agricultural industrial structure in Changping District,and provides valuable reference for the agricultural development of other areas in Beijing.

Guarantee Strategy for the Safety of Agricultural Industry in Hunan Province

The safety of agricultural industry in Hunan Province shows an upward trend from"basically safe"to"very safe",but the state in the"safe"or"very safe"range is still unstable.In view of this,Hunan Province should guarantee the agricultural production ability,cultivate and enhance the core competitiveness of agriculture,firmly grasp the agricultural control power,attach importance to the export quality of agri-cultural products and other aspects to ensure the safety of agricultural industry.

Spatio-temporal variation and relationship between agricultural efficiency and irrigation intensity in a semi-arid region of India

A surging population in Karnataka State,a semi-arid region in India,poses a threat to both food security and livelihood sustainability,necessitating a concentrated effort to bolster agricultural efficiency and achieve United Naton’s Sustainable Development Goal 2(zero hunger).Therefore,in order to address the pressing issue of food scarcity in Karnataka,this study meticulously examined the spatio-temporal variation of agricultural efficiency and irrigation intensity in Karnataka,uncovering its significant dependence of agricultural efficiency on irrigation intensity.Specifically,this study used a one-way analysis of variance(ANOVA)to ascertain significant differences in the means of agricultural efficiency and irrigation intensity during 2004-2005 and 2018-2019.This study showed that the maximum improvement in agricultural efficiency index was recorded in Belgaum(40.24),Gulbarga(24.77),and Yadgir districts(22.92)between 2004-2005 and 2018-2019,which indicated the progressing trend and better scope for agriculture extension.On the contrary,some districts expressed threat(a decline of above 20.00 of agricultural efficiency index)and needed special care for the improvement of agricultural efficiency in four northern districts(Bagalkot,Bidar,Raichur,and Bijapur),three southern districts(Chitradurga,Chikballapur and Hassan),and two southern districts(Koppal and Gadag)in Karnataka.During 2004-2005,irrigation intensity varied from 3.19%to 56.39%,with the lowest irrigation intensity in Kodagu District and the highest irrigation intensity in Shimoga District.During 2018-2019,irrigation intensity changed from 0.77%to 72.77%,with the lowest irrigation intensity in Kodagu District and the highest in Dakshin Kannad District.Moreover,the research scrutinized the complex relationship between agricultural efficiency and irrigation intensity,with the correlation coefficient increased from 0.162 during 2004-2005 to 0.255 during 2018-2019.It implies that in both periods,a low positive correlation existed between these two variables.Over time,several factors(high-yield seeds and chemical fertilizers)other than irrigation intensity gradually became essential for agricultural efficiency.This research offers a wealth of valuable insights for regional planners and policy-makers contending with comparable challenges in various regions of India and other developing countries.

Health risk assessment of trace metal(loid)s in agricultural soils based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with positive matrix factorization model in Chongqing, southwest China

This study aimed to investigate the pollution characteristics, source apportionment, and health risks associated with trace metal(loid)s(TMs) in the major agricultural producing areas in Chongqing, China. We analyzed the source apportionment and assessed the health risk of TMs in agricultural soils by using positive matrix factorization(PMF) model and health risk assessment(HRA) model based on Monte Carlo simulation. Meanwhile, we combined PMF and HRA models to explore the health risks of TMs in agricultural soils by different pollution sources to determine the priority control factors. Results showed that the average contents of cadmium(Cd), arsenic (As), lead(Pb), chromium(Cr), copper(Cu), nickel(Ni), and zinc(Zn) in the soil were found to be 0.26, 5.93, 27.14, 61.32, 23.81, 32.45, and 78.65 mg/kg, respectively. Spatial analysis and source apportionment analysis revealed that urban and industrial sources, agricultural sources, and natural sources accounted for 33.0%, 27.7%, and 39.3% of TM accumulation in the soil, respectively. In the HRA model based on Monte Carlo simulation, noncarcinogenic risks were deemed negligible(hazard index <1), the carcinogenic risks were at acceptable level(10^(-6)<total carcinogenic risk ≤ 10^(-4)), with higher risks observed for children compared to adults. The relationship between TMs, their sources, and health risks indicated that urban and industrial sources were primarily associated with As, contributing to 75.1% of carcinogenic risks and 55.7% of non-carcinogenic risks, making them the primary control factors. Meanwhile, agricultural sources were primarily linked to Cd and Pb, contributing to 13.1% of carcinogenic risks and 21.8% of non-carcinogenic risks, designating them as secondary control factors.

Accidental Ingestion of Nitric Acid in an Agricultural Company: A Case Study and Literature Review

Introduction: Though common in society, caustic accidental ingestion is rare in the agricultural industry. This study describes a case of ingestion of nitric acid used as an agricultural fertilizer by an ordinary worker at the Société de Cultures Légumières. Clinical Case: This is a 33-year-old unschooled woman who ingested a sip of nitric acid from an abandoned labelled acid canister near a farming plot of land. She showed a burn of the oral cavity with a bleeding tablecloth and an intense retrosternal pain. The duodenal oesophagus fibroscopy screening that was carried out 18 hours after the accident, revealed an esophagitis class 2b. The tests revealed no anomalies. Fifteen (15) days after the accident, the FOGD was normal. Following an 8-month-follow up, no signs of stenosis or degeneration were noted. Conclusion: The accidental ingestion of nitric acid is rare in adult. Its treatment is mainly symptomatic and aims at preserving vital functions without directly fighting the ingested substance off. The right actions must be integrated into the 15-minute Health and Safety awarenesssessions for optimum pre-hospital management. The hospital evaluation is mandatory and is carried out thanks to the digestive endoscopy, which is still relevant in this indication, but is completed by the thoraco-abdominal CT. The latter is very sensitive the transmural necrosis diagnosis.

Construction of BDS Spatiotemporal Information Agricultural Product Digital Credit System

Spatiotemporal information,positioning and navigation services have become important elements of new type infrastructure.The rapid development of global digital trade provides a large-scale application scenario for the use of Beidou Navigation Satellite System(BDS)spatiotemporal information to support the certification of origin of agricultural products.The BDS spatiotemporal information agricultural product digital credit system uses such modules as BDS,spatiotemporal information collection,spatiotemporal coding,and spatiotemporal blockchain.It incorporates multi-level joint supervision mechanisms such as government,associations,and users.Starting from the initial production link of agricultural products,it realizes the correspondence and locking of online and offline products,effectively improves the integrity and credibility of information in the production process,finished product quality and circulation process of products,effectively manages the green production and anti-channel conflicts of producers,and provides credible information for consumers,thus realizing the digital credit certification of products.The successful practice of characteristic agricultural products in Yunnan Province has verified the application ability of the BDS spatiotemporal information agricultural product digital credit system.This system has played a significant role in promoting the online and offline locking,credible information,effective supervision and high quality and high price of characteristic agricultural products from the field.The BDS provides services for global digital trade and contributes to the further enhancement of the global application scale of GNSS.

Practice and Thinking of Agricultural Science and Technology Experts Serving the Grassroots to Promote Rural Revitalization

Provincial agricultural research institutes are local agricultural research institutions.They are familiar with local agricultural and ru-ral conditions,and have advantages in scientific and technological achievements,technical reserves and the construction of scientific and tech-nological talent support systems.In the process of promoting the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy,all the responsibilities and obligations of the agricultural research institute are to identify the focus of scientific and technological support and talent support in rural revital-ization,and break the bottleneck and constraints of rural revitalization.By sorting out the current situation of agricultural science and technolo-gy experts serving the grassroots in the problem of talent support for rural revitalization,this paper analyzed the existing problems and put for-ward countermeasures and recommendations.

Agricultural Contamination of the Surface Waters of the Upper Ouémé in Benin: The Case of Heavy Metals and Pesticides

Objective: The main objective of this study was to assess the degree of contamination of surface waters by heavy metals and pesticides. Method: To this end, data were collected in December 2022 from four specific sampling stations: Okpara, Térou, Affon and Adjiro. Levels of heavy metals, including cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, mercury, nickel and lead, were measured and subjected to in-depth statistical analysis using graphical summation models. In addition, the concentrations of pesticide active ingredients present in the samples were interpreted and evaluated. The statistical data collected during this study were processed using R software, version 3.5.0. Results: The values obtained at the different stations Okpara, Térou, Affon and Adjiro are respectively Arsenic (2 × 10-4 mg/L;2.2 × 10-1 mg/L;1.2 × 10-4 mg/L;2 × 10-4 mg/L), Cadmium (4.4 × 10-5 mg/L;1.1 × 10-2 mg/L;10-4 mg/L;4 × 10-4 mg/L). Then Copper (7 × 10-4 mg/L;3 × 10-3 mg/L;7 × 10-4 mg/L;1 × 10-4 mg/L), Iron (1.51 mg/L;6.4 × 10-1 mg/L;2.0012 mg/L;2.9 × 10-1 mg/L), Lead (0 mg/L;0 mg/L;1.5 × 10-3 mg/L;1.5 × 10-3 mg/L). Mercury, nickel and chromium were not detected in surface waters. It is important to note that the values obtained for trace metals (Cadmium, Chromium, Copper, Iron, Mercury, nickel and chromium were not detected in surface waters. It is important to note that the values obtained for trace metals (cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, mercury, nickel and lead) were all below the guideline standards set by the WHO in 2006 for uncontaminated surface waters. This indicates that the surface waters of the Upper Ouémé were below acceptable contamination thresholds in terms of heavy metals. However, the presence of pesticide active ingredients such as cyfluthrin, endosulfan-alpha, endosulfan-beta, profenosfos, tihan, atrazine, gala super and glycel clearly indicates that these surface waters are subject to agricultural contamination.

The evolution analysis of agricultural global value chains

With the Uruguay Round bringing agricultural trade into multilateral regulation,the major countries have actively participated in agricultural global value chains(AGVC)and occupied an important position according to their comparative advantages.Utilizing bilateral agricultural trade data of 66 countries based on the OECD Inter-Country-Input-Output Tables(OECD ICIO)from 2010 to 2018,this study applies social network analysis indicators to measure each country’s eigenvector centrality within AGVC and to examine the current global agricultural trade patterns,with particular attention to the changes in the status of world powers within AGVC.The main findings are as follows:first,with the multilateral and regional trade liberalization,growing numbers of developing nations,including China and India,are engaging in international agricultural trade,which contributes to its diversification;second,as AGVC develops,the structure of global agricultural trade networks has become more decentralized and balanced.This is evidenced by the emergence of additional central nodes,and large nations like the United States,which formerly held the most central position as indicated by a drop in its centrality,are becoming less dominant.