Socio-economic and energy-environmental impacts of technological change on China's agricultural development under the carbon neutrality strategy

Promoting agricultural modernisation through technological change is an important strategy for China.China's carbon neutrality strategy is leading to systemic socio-economic changes that could exacerbate the uncertainty of agricultural development.Therefore,applying a computable general equilibrium(CGE)model,this study characterises the agricultural sector in detail,introducing endogenous technological change proxied by research and development(R&D)to assess the impact of different technological change scenarios on agricultural development under the carbon neutrality target.The results show that allocating carbon revenue for R&D inputs can mitigate the significant negative impact of achieving carbon neutrality on knowledge capital and production in agricultural sectors.Overall,using carbon revenue only for R&D input in crop sectors has the optimal effect on increasing the agricultural sectors'knowledge capital,improving crop production and profit,reducing crop external dependence and promoting the synergistic reduction of carbon and pollutant emissions.However,this scenario has the largest negative impact on macro-economics and household welfare.In contrast,allocating carbon revenue to promote technological change in broader non-energy sectors or both crops and non-energy sectors can effectively mitigate negative socio-economic impacts,but the positive impact on agricultural development is minimal.These findings provide practical insights for the rational use of carbon revenue to expand agricultural R&D investment and ensure balanced agricultural and economic development under the carbon neutrality target.

Building a Business and Strategic Intelligence Policy as a Strategy for Promoting Congolese Business Progress and Healthy Economic Development in Eastern DRC

The aim of this study was to verify the existence of business and strategic intelligence policies at the level of Congolese companies and at the state level, likely to foster progress and healthy development in the east of the DRC. The study was based on a mixed perspective consisting of objective analysis of quantitative data and interpretative analysis of qualitative data. The results showed that business and strategic intelligence policies have not been established at either company or state level, as this is an area of activity that is not known to the players in companies and public departments, and there are no units or offices in their organizational structures responsible for managing strategic information for competitiveness on the international market. In addition, there is a real need to establish strategic information management units within companies, upstream, and to set up a national strategic information management department or agency to help local companies compete in the marketplace, downstream. This reflects the importance and timeliness of building business and strategic intelligence policies to ensure economic progress and development in the eastern DRC. Business and strategic intelligence provides companies with an appropriate tool for researching, collecting, processing and disseminating information useful for decision-making among stakeholders, in order to cope with a crisis or competitive situation. The study suggests a number of key recommendations based on its findings. To the government, it is recommended to establish the national policy of business and strategic intelligence by setting up a national agency of strategic intelligence in favor of local companies;and to companies to establish business intelligence units in their organizational structures in favor of stakeholders to foster advantageous decision-making in the competitive market and achieve progress. Finally, the study suggests that studies be carried out to fully understand the opportunities and impact of business and strategic intelligence in African countries, particularly in the DRC.

Relationship between the Three Laws of Dialectics of Nature and Agricultural Development

Based on the three laws of dialectics of nature-the law of unity of opposites, the law of mutual change of quality and the law of negation of negation, this paper analyzes the relationship between the three laws and agricultural development, and proposes making good use of the three laws to promote the better development of agriculture and realize agricultural modernization.

Research on Climate Change and Countermeasure of Agriculture Sustainable Development

Based on the Fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Assessment Report and meteorologists' research results of climate change in China,the influences of climate change on agricultural production were analyzed from the aspects of temperature,precipitation,sea-level rise and so on.Concrete measures were put forward to reply to climate change.According to the climate change trends,defensive measures were established to enhance the capacity of agriculture coping with climate change,making full use of advantages while avoiding disadvantages,in order to achieve sustainable development.

Managing Climate Change Risk in China's Agricultural Sector: The Potential for an Integrated Risk Management Framework

Climate change poses a serious threat to the future food security of China, which is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. This paper discusses the implications of climate change for China＇s agricultural sector. Its main objectives are to identify the agricultural risks associated with climate change, to introduce a conceptual framework for agricultural climate risk management and to enumerate key adaptation strategies, challenges, and recommendations.

International carbon markets under the Paris Agreement:Basic form and development prospects

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement introduces two international carbon markets that receive extensive attention and are expected to play an important role in the post-2020 climate regime.Three key elements of the two international carbon markets,including the scope,the types of tradable units and the governance,are identified,as the basis to clarify their basic forms.Based on the key issues and their different designs identified in negotiations,this study analyzes the contributions and challenges for China to participate in international carbon markets.Considering the inherent needs of climate change mitigation,climate finance,the development of a green"Belt and Road"and the China South-South cooperation in climate change,along with the existing domestic capacities on market mechanisms,this study puts forward the short-,medium-and long-term development prospects of the two international carbon markets.

From Thaer and Thünen until Today: Past and Future of Agricultural Landscape Use in Germany

This article intends to present the historical development of German agriculture sector in last two centuries and underlined the benefit of the advancement in agriculture sector to fulfil the growing food demand. At the same time the article discussed the ecological and socio-economic perspectives of rapid technological development of agriculture sector in Germany. This article would facilitate the debate on technological development in agriculture sector, which rapidly growing throughout the world, in view point of sustainable socio-ecological development.

“双碳”目标下的种养结合循环农业发展

在响应全球气候治理倡议过程中,中国提出了“双碳”目标,这对种养结合循环农业提出了新的要求。本文分析了种养结合循环农业的基本含义、特征和内在逻辑,探讨了其在“双碳”目标下的发展现状和面临的挑战,并提出了相应的优化策略。研究表明,尽管中国在自然、社会、经济和政策层面为发展种养结合循环农业提供了坚实基础,但依然面临着环境监管和碳排放/碳汇核算难度大、技术创新与技术应用区域不平衡、生产与市场需求对接不畅、社会分工演进与农业发展不协调等挑战。通过加强环境监管与碳排放/碳汇核算体系建设,促进技术创新与技术应用均衡发展,完善生产与市场需求对接机制,改进种养结合专业化合作机制,完善政策支持与激励机制,可以有效地推动种养结合循环农业发展,从而为实现“双碳”目标作出贡献。

内生型特色农业发展中的市场吸纳与产业秩序建构

特色农业是乡村产业振兴的重要路径。基于浙西山区特色农业发展实践,探讨了内生型特色农业发展中的市场吸纳与产业秩序建构。研究发现,内生型特色农业有其发展的资源基础、劳动力优势和市场动力,表现出强市场导向、收益导向和农户强自主性特点。特色农业发展不仅需要政府和社会组织嵌入到村庄社会,更需要产业链不同环节主体具备吸纳市场的能力。农产品经纪人利用嵌入在熟人社会的优势建立与农户的长期信任关系,建立稳定的市场渠道,成为其有效吸纳市场的具体策略。基层政府则通过保障区域农产品品质,提升市场公共竞争力间接吸纳市场。特色农业发展中形成小农户、农产品经纪人和基层政府共同吸纳市场的格局,才能有助于自下而上小农户主导的农业产业化路径建构。

市场化水平提升对农业高质量发展的促进效应研究

农业高质量发展是我国从农业大国向农业强国迈进的必然要求,是我国经济高质量发展的应有之义。基于2011—2021年我国30个省份(未统计西藏及港澳台地区的数据)的面板数据样本,运用广义矩估计的系统GMM模型、中介效应模型和动态门槛效应模型研究市场化水平提升对农业高质量发展的影响。研究表明:市场化水平提升对农业高质量发展具有显著促进作用,但过度市场化会降低这种促进效应;无论从农业高质量发展和市场化水平的不同构成维度,还是从不同区域视角分析,市场化水平提升对农业高质量发展的影响均存在异质性;市场化水平提升可通过技术创新和产业结构调整两条中介路径对农业高质量发展产生影响;在促进农业高质量发展过程中,政府财政支农与市场化水平提升存在互补作用。为此,我国应从四个方面来提升市场化水平,促进农业高质量发展:一是要深化改革,充分发挥市场的积极作用;二是要因应施策,提升市场化推进的针对性;三是要激励创新,畅通市场化功能发挥路径;四是要优势互补,促进市场与政府协同契合。

气候变化背景下农业低碳发展:国际经验与中国策略

在全球共同应对气候变化的时代背景下,探索国际视野下农业温室气体减排的先进经验,对于中国践行气候变化国际合作倡议、推动自身农业可持续发展实现具有重要现实意义。以美国、欧盟和日本等国家为对象,分别梳理其农业低碳发展的主要做法、最新行动和取得成效,据此,结合中国特色农业发展的基本理念,提出农业低碳发展的中国策略。研究表明:1)较之于同为新兴经济体的印度,2020年中国在农业温室气体排放总量和人均排放量上与其相近,但中国的单位GDP排放量[44.52 t∙(106$)^(−1)]远低于印度[278.11 t∙(106$)^(−1)];较之于同作为人口大国的美国,中国在排放总量方面较高,但中国的人均排放量(0.46 t∙cap.−1)明显低于美国(1.15 t∙cap.^(−1))。中国必须充分考虑自身作为人口大国和发展中国家的现实,科学合理地展开农业温室气体减排目标规划。2)美国主要在法律法规完善、财政税收和减排补贴、清洁能源开发及推广、碳排放权和碳汇市场交易等方面做出积极探索,其2020年人均农业温室气体排放量较1990年下降19.58%;欧盟的先进做法主要体现在法律法规完善、财税支持和生态保护补偿、管理创新和技术创新等方面,其2020年人均排放量同比1990年下降29.03%;日本主要在可再生能源推广、管理创新和技术创新、粮食生产保障和气候适应等方面展开行动,其2020年人均排放量同比1990年下降29.17%。3)农业低碳发展的中国策略旨在保障粮食供给、减少温室效应和实现生态价值。据此,提出持续完善相关法律法规体系、加大财税扶持和绿色金融支持、加强管理创新和科技创新、加快能源结构调整和转型升级以及逐步完善碳交易市场机制5个方面的政策启示。

气候变化背景下农业绿色发展能力提升研究

气候变化是全人类面临的共同挑战,关乎子孙后代的福祉。农业是温室气体的重要排放源,在改变全球气候方面发挥着重要作用;同时,农业也是受气候变化影响最直接的脆弱产业。气候变化不仅影响农业产能水平,增加农业生产成本,而且会对农业生产环境造成一定影响。在气候变化背景下,提升农业绿色发展能力面临着农业气候风险管理机制不完善、农业气象灾害防御能力较弱、农业气象灾害监测预警系统缺乏以及应急管理能力不足等气候风险,亟须破解生态资源禀赋不足、绿色生产效率低下、技术创新能力不足以及质量监管机制不健全等现实困境。新时代农业绿色发展的根本目标是为14亿国人提供安全优质的农产品,同时推动农业生产环境的改善,助力“双碳”目标的实现。提升农业绿色发展能力必须明确其三大核心,即耕地土壤质量的保护、灌溉用水水质的保护以及农作物种质资源的保护。基于农业绿色发展应适应气候变化趋势的思考,全面提升农业绿色发展能力需要从农业基础设施、农业种植结构、农技推广服务、农业气象灾害防控体系等领域着手改善。

数字经济对全国统一农产品大市场的影响效应分析

选取2013—2022年中国30个省级面板数据,利用双重固定效应模型与空间计量方法实证检验数字经济对全国统一农产品大市场的影响效应。结果表明,数字经济能够显著促进全国统一农产品大市场建设,且二者间关系呈倒“U”型特征;数字经济对全国统一农产品大市场建设的推动作用在东部、中部以及东北地区显著,在西部地区不显著;数字经济与全国统一农产品大市场均具有显著正向空间溢出效应;数字经济对本地区全国统一农产品大市场具有直接促进效应,对周边地区产生较强的挤出或竞争效应。

小农户衔接现代农业有助于提升农户韧性吗?——基于中国乡村振兴综合调查数据

着力提升农户韧性、增强农户可持续发展能力对于加快实现农民农村共同富裕具有重要意义。本文以缓冲能力、适应能力和学习能力测度农户韧性,采用2020年中国乡村振兴综合调查数据,实证探究小农户衔接现代农业对农户韧性的影响效果、作用机制及异质性。研究结果表明,小农户衔接现代农业能够提升农户韧性,尤其是改善了小农户的缓冲能力与学习能力;以采用电商与社会化服务表征的市场化衔接对农户韧性的提升作用大于以嵌入农业龙头企业或参与合作社表征的组织化衔接的影响。机制分析发现,缓解融资约束、改善市场交易与促进治理参与是衔接现代农业提升小农户韧性的重要路径。异质性分析结果显示,衔接现代农业对位于不同粮食功能区小农户韧性的影响无显著差异,对只种植粮食作物和兼种粮食与经济作物小农户的韧性有提升作用,且对于文化建设投入多、宜居水平高的村庄以及信息化条件好的家庭,衔接现代农业提升小农户韧性的效应更大。基于研究结论,本文提出探索构建农户韧性培育体系、完善小农户融入现代农业的财政金融支持政策、健全农村要素市场及交易机制等政策建议。

农村人力资本积累对农业产业结构升级的影响

本文旨在探讨农村人力资本定义、重要性和现状。系统阐述农业产业结构升级的必要性及其驱动力。详细分析农村人力资本在技术创新、管理优化、市场需求变动和农业产业链完善中的作用。同时,分析农业产业结构升级对农村人力资本的新要求,并探讨两者之间的协同发展关系。强调农村人力资本是农业产业结构升级的核心力量,两者间存在紧密互动。

“三农”与“双循环”新发展格局——关于城乡融合发展推进乡村振兴的调研报告

脱贫攻坚战全面胜利后,如何巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,确保不发生规模性返贫;同时如何发挥“三农”在投资、消费和建设全国统一大市场中的作用,积极参与“加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”。结合典型案例分析近年来我国农业农村经济发展过程中的新变化、取得成效,梳理总结发展经验,面对出现的新问题,提出未来乡村经济提质发展的建议和策略:(1)坚持整区域规划统筹与农业产业差异化发展引领;(2)以基础设施均等化推动以人为本的城乡融合;(3)增强对农业科技以及农民教育和培训的资金投入;(4)创新发展合作组织协同构建农业社会化服务;(5)加强农业和农村发展的法律支持;(6)挖掘传统文化创建新的乡村文明;(7)参与畅通国内大循环;(8)开展农业对外交流合作。

Scenario-Based Assessment of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Kuwait: Insights for Effective Resource Management

The interdependency among water, food, and energy (WEF) in the GCC countries is strongly and closely interlinked, and is intensifying as demand for resources increases with population growth and changing consumption patterns, and are expected to be further compounded by the impacts of climate change. Therefore, integrated management of the three sectors is crucial to reduce trade-offs and build synergies among them. This paper presents a comprehensive framework to assess the WEF nexus in Kuwait as a representative case for the GCC countries. The framework consists of three main steps: 1) evaluating the influence of socio-economic development and climate change on water, energy, and food resources;2) generating scenario-based projections;and 3) conducting an extensive quantitative nexus analysis. The WEF interlinkages in Kuwait are modelled quantitatively using the Q-Nexus model, and current critical interdependencies are evaluated. Then, various WEF-Nexus scenarios were conducted for the year 2035 to explore the effects of management interventions in one sector on the other two sectors. The main findings are that per capita municipal water consumption is a major influencer on the WEF-nexus due to the heavy reliance on thermal desalination in municipal water supply in Kuwait, which is attributed to its energy intensity, financial cost, GHGs emissions, and environmental impacts on the marine and air environments. To reduce WEF trade-offs, mitigate risks, and build synergies among the three sectors, it is important to shift the current policy focus on supply-side management approach to the demand-side management and efficiency approaches.

乡村产业振兴的关键环节——以安徽省亳州市利辛县X村为例

要素禀赋结构是乡村产业发展的重要基础,有效市场和有为政府是乡村产业发展升级的主要驱动力量,产业技术创新升级和品牌化规模化经营体系是产业升级的必然途径,制度的合理变迁和软硬基础设施建设是乡村产业发展升级的有力保障。在以上各因素的耦合作用下,乡村地区可以在不同要素禀赋结构下实现资源的最优配置,推动乡村产业高质量发展,加快农业农村现代化建设。

广西主导农业经济产业发展变化分析与对策建议

为掌握主导农业经济产业发展状况,通过国家统计局官方网站,获取广西甘蔗、柑橘、蚕桑、香蕉产业2011—2021年种植面积和总产量数据,计算不同产业单产量,基于种植面积、产量和单产研究不同产业发展变化情况。统计分析发现,甘蔗、柑橘和蚕桑茧种植面积和产量位居全国榜首,甘蔗种植规模呈下降趋势,甘蔗单产逐年增产,柑橘种植规模呈增长趋势,柑橘单产稳步提高,桑树种植规模呈先增后减趋势,桑蚕茧单产较平稳;香蕉种植面积排名全国第三,产量及单产位列全国第二,种植规模缩减趋势明显,单产逐年提高。虽然广西主导农业经济产业取得较好成效,但仍存在产业发展不平衡、技术落后、缺乏自主品牌、产业链短等突出问题,建议进一步加强政府扶持引导、加强科技创新、加强技术培训、加强企业培育,以促进广西主导农业经济产业可持续发展。

气候变化背景下农业碳中和发展路径研究

随着全球气候变化问题日益严峻,控制温室气体排放成为国际社会的共同责任,农业部门作为温室气体的主要排放源之一,其碳中和对实现国家发展目标尤为重要。该研究解析农业生产活动的温室气体排放的主要环节,在此基础上评估各环节潜在的减排空间。当前农业碳中和建设中仍然欠缺政策、资金、技术及市场等多方面的支持,未来可以通过加强法律规范、保障资金供应、推进技术创新和完善碳市场交易机制,以促进农业碳中和建设的发展,为碳中和目标的实现作出贡献。