An agent-based model of agricultural land expansion in the mountain forest of Timor Island,Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.

Extensive identification of landslide boundaries using remote sensing images and deep learning method

The frequent occurrence of extreme weather events has rendered numerous landslides to a global natural disaster issue.It is crucial to rapidly and accurately determine the boundaries of landslides for geohazards evaluation and emergency response.Therefore,the Skip Connection DeepLab neural network(SCDnn),a deep learning model based on 770 optical remote sensing images of landslide,is proposed to improve the accuracy of landslide boundary detection.The SCDnn model is optimized for the over-segmentation issue which occurs in conventional deep learning models when there is a significant degree of similarity between topographical geomorphic features.SCDnn exhibits notable improvements in landslide feature extraction and semantic segmentation by combining an enhanced Atrous Spatial Pyramid Convolutional Block(ASPC)with a coding structure that reduces model complexity.The experimental results demonstrate that SCDnn can identify landslide boundaries in 119 images with MIoU values between 0.8and 0.9;while 52 images with MIoU values exceeding 0.9,which exceeds the identification accuracy of existing techniques.This work can offer a novel technique for the automatic extensive identification of landslide boundaries in remote sensing images in addition to establishing the groundwork for future inve stigations and applications in related domains.

Soil Organic Carbon Stock Variation under Different Soil Types and Land Uses in the Sub-Humid Noun Plain, Western Cameroon

This study was conducted to assess the current stock of soil organic carbon under different agricultural land uses, soil types and soil depths in the Noun plain in western Cameroon. Three sites were selected for the study, namely Mangoum, Makeka and Fossang, representative of the three dominant soil types of the noun plain (Andosols, Acrisols and Ferralsols). Three land uses were selected per site including natural vegetation, agroforest and crop field. Soil was sampled at three depths;0 - 20 cm, 20 - 40 cm, and 40 - 60 cm. Analysis of variance showed that soil type did not significantly influence carbon storage, but rather land uses and soil depth. SOCS decreased significantly with depth in all the sites, with an average stock of 66.3 ± 15.8 tC/ha at 0 - 20 cm, compared to an average stock of 33.3 ± 7.4 tC/ha at 40 - 60 cm. SOCS was significantly highest in the natural formation with 57.2 ± 19.7 tC/ha, and lowest in cultivated fields, at 37.7 ± 10.6 tC/ha. Andosols, with their high content of coarse fragments, stored less organic carbon than Ferralsols and Acrisols.

Variations in Soil Organic Matter Content in Cultivated and Uncultivated Calcareous Soils from the Mediterranean Island of Malta after 15 Years of Cultivation

The soils of Malta are calcareous and generally undeveloped. Organic matter (OM) in these soils is low and farmers are constantly urged to increase it. The objective of this study was to evaluate any temporal variation in soil OM after 15 years of cultivation, and determine whether soil series, soil depth, and cultivation influence variation. OM was determined in the topsoil and subsoil of 7 agricultural and 4 non-agricultural sites. The sites represented 7 different soil series that are present on the island. In sampling periods 1 (t = 0 years) and 2 (t =15 years), the OM content in the collective (all soil series) bulk (topsoil and subsoil) uncultivated soil was 3.9 % and 3.8 % respectively. This was significantly greater than that of the collective bulk cultivated soil (2.4% and 2.3%). The OM in the collective uncultivated topsoil was 5.4% and 5.2% in periods 1 and 2 and was significantly higher than that of the cultivated topsoil (2.5% in both periods). The OM content in the collective uncultivated subsoil was 2.3% and 2.5% in periods 1 and 2 respectively but only that measured in period 2 was significantly higher than that of the cultivated subsoil (2.2% in both periods). On an individual soil series basis, the OM in the uncultivated topsoils was significantly higher than that of their cultivated counterparts. The differences in the subsoils were not significant. Across the uncultivated soil series, OM was significantly higher in the topsoil than in the subsoil but in the cultivated soil series the differences between topsoil and subsoil were not significant. There was no significant difference in OM between the uncultivated soils of different series, but in the cultivated the OM content was higher in soils that were more mature. After 15 years, no significant change in OM occurred in both the collective cultivated and uncultivated bulk soils, the collective topsoil and subsoil, and in most of the individual series. The OM content of each soil series was also similar to what was reported 60 and 50 years earlier by other researchers.

How Could Agricultural Land Systems Contribute to Raise Food Production Under Global Change?

To feed the increasing world population, more food needs to be produced from agricultural land systems. Solutions to produce more food with fewer resources while minimizing adverse environmental and ecological consequences require sustainable agricultural land use practices as supplementary to advanced biotechnology and agronomy. This review paper, from a land system perspective, systematically proposed and analyzed three interactive strategies that could possibly raise future food production under global change. By reviewing the current literatures, we suggest that cropland expansion is less possible amid iferce land competition, and it is likely to do less in increasing food production. Moreover, properly allocating crops in space and time is a practical way to ensure food production. Climate change, dietary shifts, and other socio-economic drivers, which would shape the demand and supply side of food systems, should be taken into consideration during the decision-making on rational land management in respect of sustainable crop choice and allocation. And ifnally, crop-speciifc agricultural intensiifcation would play a bigger role in raising future food production either by increasing the yield per unit area of individual crops or by increasing the number of crops sown on a particular area of land. Yet, only when it is done sustainably is this a much more effective strategy to maximize food production by closing yield and harvest gaps.

Agricultural Land Use Optimal Allocation System in Developing Area:Application to Yili Watershed, Xinjiang Region

In developing countries, land productivity involves little market, where the agricultural land use is mainly determined by the food demands as well as the land suitability. The land use pattern will not ensure everywhere enough land for certain cropping if spatial allocation just according to land use suitability. To solve this problem, a subzone and a pre-allocation for each land use are added in spatial allocation module, and land use suitability and area optimi- zation module are incorporated to constitute a whole agricultural land use optimal allocation （ALUOA） system. The system is developed on the platform .Net 2005 using ArcGIS Engine （version 9.2） and C# language, and is tested and validated in Yili watershed of Xinjiang Region on the newly reclaimed area. In the case study, with the help of soil data obtained from 69 points sampled in the fieldwork in 2008, main river data supplied by the Department of Water Resources of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region in China, and temperature data provided by Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, land use suitability on eight common crops are evaluated one by one using linear weighted summation method in the land use suitability model. The linear pro- gramming （LP） model in area optimization model succeeds to give out land area target of each crop under three scenarios. At last, the land use targets are allotted in space both with a six subzone file and without a subzone file. The resuits show that the land use maps with a subzone not only ensure every part has enough land for every crop, but also gives a more fragmental land use pattern, with about 87.99% and 135.92% more patches than the one without, while at the expense of loss between 15.30% and 19.53% in the overall suitability at the same time.

Ecological Suitability Evaluation on Agricultural Land in Western Jilin Province Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

[Objective] This study was to evaluate the ecological suitability of agricultural land in western Jilin Province, with the aim to provide basis for the effective application of agricultural resources and the structural adjustment of land use. [Method] The evaluation index system was constructed based on fuzzy mathematic method according to the principles of systematic, dominant, effectiveness and feasibility; based on law of tolerance, reasonable evaluation criteria were determined according to the ecological amplitude of crops; based on GIS processing, the initial data completed the mathematical operation by using the VBA program in Excel. [Result] The area of agricultural land grade I was 5 512 km2, grade II of 25 985 km2, grade Ill of 7 907 km2, and area of land not suitable for agriculture was 6 312 km2. According to the evaluation results, the key areas for land use adjustment were Zhenlai County, Da＇an County, Tongyu County and western Changling County. The directions of land use adjustment included improving irrigation and drainage conditions, governing land salinization and conversion of cropland to forest and grassland. [Conclusion] This study provided basis for the effective application of agricultural resources and ecological environment construction in western Jilin Province.

Research of Comprehensive Evaluation of Agricultural Land Suitability in Typical Area of Huanghuaihai Plain based on GIS

The paper aims to study agricultural land suitability in typical agricultural area in Huanghuaihai plain by the comprehensive evaluation of natural factors and environmental conditions of agricultural land with Liaocheng area in Shangdong Province in the center of Huanghuaihai plain as a case.The results suggested that the land quality in Liaocheng was above the average and accorded with the local practical situation.The authors validated the scientificity of agricultural land suitability study by using GIS technology and proposed some suggestions on analysis results.

Effect of Agricultural Land Reform on Cotton Cultivation in Manasi,XinJiang Based on Reformed Farmers

[Objective] The paper was to study the effect of agricultural land reform on cotton cultivation in Manasi, XinJiang based on reformed farmers. [Method] Rural land contract management rights transfer of rural household in Manasi County of Xinjiang Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture were surveyed in August, 2011. Based on the survey data, the paper analyzed the effect of agricultural land reform on cotton culti- vation from 2 aspects of cotton cultivation scale and benefit, and also studied the willingness of farmers for agricultural land reform. [Result] The main obstacle for farmer＇s unwillingness of continuous land reform for cotton cultivation was that the cotton cultivation risk was big, and the benefit could not be guaranteed. The agricul- tural land area per household increased after agricultural land reform, which increased the modernization progress of cotton cultivation. It also increased the benefit of cotton cultivation, and further affected the benefit of cotton cultivation. [Conclusion] The study provided reference for improving scale cotton cultivation efficacy in Xinjiang.

Regional disparity in the changes of agricultural land use intensity in China during 1980-2002

Based on the cost-benefit data （1980-2002） of farm products and China Agriculture Yearbooks, this paper studies the regional disparity in the changes of the agricultural land use in China during the period 1980-2002 from three aspects such as the degree of intensity, the sown area and the abandoned farmland. The results show that： （1） The degree of intensity of land use in the westena region during 1980-2000 has a strong uptrend, but in the eastern and central regions the degree of intensity descends obviously and has shown a continuous downtrend since 1997. （2） The total sown area shrinks notably in the eastern region, while it enlarges constantly in the western region. （3） The sown area in the eastern, central and western regions has gone through a similar cyclic process： down （1980-1985）-up （1985-1991）-down （1991-1994）-up （1994-1999）-down （1999-2002）. However, there are obvious differences in amplitude variation and tendency among them. The sown area has shrunk in the eastern region and expanded in the central and western regions especially before 1999. （4） The most cases of abandoned farmland are reported in the central region, the second in the eastern region and the least in the western region. The abandonment phenomena chiefly occurred during 1992-1995 in the eastern region, and during 1998-2002 in the central region.

China’s Potential of Grain Production Due to Changes in Agricultural Land Utilization in Recent Years

The changes in utilization of agricultural land have gradually grown into one of the major factors impacting grain output in China. This study explores the various components of agricultural production in China from the land utilization perspective, involving changes in grain production per unit area, multi-cropping index, and adjustment of agricultural structure. Compared with the record values, different research methodologies are used to analyze the po- tential of above three components. The results indicate that grain production potential of 65.68×109kg was unexploited in 2006, in which 45.8×109kg came from the restructuring in agriculture. So we can infer that the reduction of grain production in China could be primarily attributed to agricultural restructuring in recent years. So the productive poten- tial can be fully restored by increasing agricultural investment, or recovering agricultural structure in favorable condi- tions. So we can say that China’s current condition of food security is good.

Impact of Labor Transfer on Agricultural Land Use Conversion at Rural Household Level Based on Logit Model

Since land and labor force are primary resources to be used and controlled by rural households, the allocation of labor forces will influence land uses, and further lead to land use conversion. The present study used the Binary Logit model to investigate the influence of labor force transfer, characteristics of rural households, location, and land market on agricultural land use conversion at rural household level. This study was conducted based on 329 valid questionnaires, which were obtained in Changshu, Rudong, and Tongshan counties, respectively representing the southern, middle and northern areas of Jiangsu Province. The results showed that land market participation, location, zonal difference and labor transfer had strong influences on agricultural land use conversion. The participation of land market had a strong positive effect on land use conversion, especially for the farmland converted to the fishpond. The nearer to the county seat, the more conversion of land use occurred. Particularly, the labor force transfer caused by wage employment decreased this conversion probability, while the labor transfer caused by self-employment led to more conversion; and the increasing of income from labor transfer increased the conversion. Moreover, land use con- versions demonstrated zonal difference, which were more in Rudong and Changshu counties than in Tongshan County, and the factors influencing this conversion were different in the three regions.

Changes in cultivated land patterns and driving forces in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, China, from 1992 to 2015

Changes of cultivated land patterns caused by major water conservation projects are rarely reported. We selected the Three Gorges Reservoir area in China to study the change in area and landscape pattern of the cultivated land in the head,central, and tail areas of the reservoir that took place between 1992 and 2015;we then studied the spatial distribution of the cultivated land in the three parts of the reservoir;finally, we studied the driving forces behind the changes in the cultivated land. The results derived are as follows.(1) During the construction of the Three Gorges Project(TGP, 1992–2015), the area of cultivated land around the reservoir decreased by30.23 million ha. This reduction occurred in phases:the most severe change in cultivated land occurred during the later stage of the project(2002–2010);only 0.62 million ha of cultivated land did not change between 1992 and 2015.(2) Spatial pattern analysis showed that the cultivated land in the three parts of the reservoir changed from a northern distribution to a southern distribution;thus, the area of cultivated land in the north decreased over the time period. The area of cultivated land in the head and tail areas decreased by varying degrees, while it increased in the central area over the 23 years, indicating that the change in cultivated land showed regional differences.(3) The TGP, the policy of reverting farmland to forest,and urbanization were the main driving factors for the change of cultivated land, but there were differences in their impacts at different stages.(4) According to the patch dynamics of the land cover change, the degree of change gradually intensified during the early and later stages of the project and then stabilized during the operational period. Our research provides scientific support for the protection of cultivated land resources and food security in the reservoir area and for the coordination of social and economic development, which is of great significance to sustainable development in the reservoir area.

The effects of land-use types and conversions on desertification in Mu Us Sandy Land of China

Based on multi-temporal remotely sensed materials of both 1985 and 2000, we analyzed the effects of land-use types and their conversions on desertification in Mu Us Sandy Land in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of north central China. In this study, the desertified land was classified into five degrees： potential, light, medium, severe and extreme. The results indicate that the extent of desertification expands slightly, while desertification degree is enhanced significantly. About 22.35% of the total land area in the study area is in the desertification course, and the expanded area of both severely and extremely desertified land accounts for 3.67% of the total area of Mu Us Sandy Land. About 9053 klTl2 of area witnessed changes in land-use types between 1985 and 2000, which accounted for 10.75% of the total. More importantly, the area of conversions among cultivated land, forestland and rangeland added up to 971.6 km^2. This research reveals that both improper land-use types and conversions could accelerate the desertification process. Both cultivated land and forestland have more effects on the desertification development than rangeland. Some land-use type conversions, such as rangeland to cultivated land, rangeland to forestland and forestland to cultivated land, are attributed to the acceleration of the desertification development while the opposite can control the desertification development.

Effect of Agricultural Land Use Changes on Soil Nutrient Use Efficiency in an Agricultural Area,Beijing,China

Agricultural land use and management practices may affect soil properties,which play a critical role in sustaining crop production.Since the late 1970s,several new agricultural land use types had been introduced in the rural areas of China.The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of these land use changes on the soil properties,nu-trient absorption rate,and nutrient use economic efficiency ratio in an agricultural area of Beijing.Specifically,the cropland,the orchard and the vegetable field were examined.Results of this study suggest that land use and farming management practices significantly affect the content of soil organic carbon (SOC),total nitrogen (TN),total phos-phorus (TP),and available phosphorus in the surface layer of 0-25 cm (p<0.05) in the Yanqing Basin,northwestern Beijing.Soil nutrients in each agricultural land use type decrease rapidly with the increasing soil depth.Orchard and vegetable field tend to have higher soil nutrients than the cropland does.However,the soil nutrient-absorption rate (NAR) of the orchard and vegetable field is lower than that of the cropland,even though orchard and vegetable field may provide much higher economic benefit.While increasing SOC,TN,and TP in the orchard and vegetable field by intensive farming may be a valuable option to improve soil quality,potential increase in the risk of nutrient loss,or agricultural non-point source pollution can be a tradeoff if the intensive practices are not managed appropriately.

Spatial Distribution and Changes of Heavy Metals of Agricultural Lands in Typical Pregrading Coast in Dongtai City,Jiangsu Province,China

According to the historical changes of coastal lines, seven soil sampling districts, from land to sea, were arranged in Dongtai City, Jiangsu Province to sample soils from surface and profile. Concentrations of seven major heavy metals (HMs), granularity, pH, organic matters and C/N of the soil samples were analyzed. Results show that concentrations of heavy metals in agricultural land present a certain spatial variance, decreasing from land to sea. Pollution assessment indicates that the agricultural soils were not polluted by HMs, but the potential pollution of Cu and Hg needs to be alerted. Different HMs accumulate in the surface and sub-surface of the soil profiles, and concentrations of Hg and Pb decrease significantly with the increment of soil depth. Concentrations of HMs exhibit a significantly negative correlation to pH, but have no significant relation with organic matters in soil. Principle component analysis show that the concentrations of HMs relate to the land use history. Concentrations of Hg, Ni and Cr in soil are closely related with land use history, and concentrations of Pb, Cu and Cr are affected by land use history as well as other factors. However, there is no significant relation between concentration of As and land use history.

Comparison and Analysis of Agricultural and Forest Land Changes in Typical Agricultural Regions of Northern Mid-latitudes

The northeastern China, the United States, and the western Europe are important agricultural regions both on the global and regional scales. The westem Europe has a longer history of agricultural land development than the eastem United States. These two regions have changed from the deforestation and reclamation phase in the past to the current land abandonment and reforestation phase. Compared with the two regions, large-scale land exploitation has only been practiced in the northeastern China during the last century. After a short high-intensity deforestation and reclamation period, agricultural and forest lands are basically in a dynamic steady state. By comparing domestic and international agro-forestry development and considering the ecological environment and socio-economic bene- fits that can be derived from agro-forestry, this paper suggests that large area of reforestation would be inevitable in future though per- sistent and large agricultural demand in coming decades even more. And local reforestation at slope farmland with ecological vulner- ability should be imperative at present to avoid severer damage. At the same time, from the perspective of Land Change Science, the results demonstrate that the research on land use change in the agro-forestry ecotone is typical and critical, particularly those dealing with the analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics and the simulation of climate, hydrology, and other environmental effects.

Effectiveness of sloping agricultural land technology on soil fertility status of mid-hills in Nepal

Hedgerows with intercropping systems were established at the ICIMOD test and demonstration site at Godawari to assess the effective- ness of Sloping Agricultural Land Technology （SALT） in reducing run- off water volume, controlling soil loss, increasing crop production, and improving soil fertility in the mid-hills of Nepal. Runoff water volume （1996-2002）, soil loss （1996-2002） and maize yield （1995-2001）, and soil fertility-related parameters were assessed on SALT models with three factors： the type of nitrogen-fixing plant, the farmers＇ practice, and fertilizer use. Results showed a significant effect of Alnus nepalensis and/or Indigofera dosua on runoff water volume, soil loss, crop produc- tion, soil water retention, and soil nutrients （NPK）. Farmers＇ practice and fertilization did not play a significant role in reducing runoff water and soil loss. However, farmers＇ practice significantly increased crop produc- tion. Therefore, integrating soil conservation approaches on SALT sys- tems enhances stable economic output to hills and mountain farmers.

Analysis of Land Use Change in Western Yunnan Plateau——Taking Midu County as an example

The research of land use/land cover change （LUCC） is the core content of global environmental change research and an important part of the sustainable development research. Taking the Midu County of western Yunnan Plateau as the example, GIS technology was used to make the spatial overlay with the land use database in 2009 and land change survey database in 2014 of Midu County, so as to analyze the changes of land use of the county, and reveal the law of land use change, with the aim to provide the basis for further rational utilization of land resources.

Impacts of the Rising Opportunity Cost of Farm Labor on Agricultural Land Use Structure: Theory and Empirical Evidences

Nowadays the rising of opportunity cost of farm labor comes to the forefront of attention in China. In order to understand its impact on agricultural land-use structure, a theoretical framework of household economics is formulated drawn on Low's model. Under the theoretical framework, the impact of the rising opportunity cost of on-farm on cropping structure is deduced in theory. And then, using statistic and survey data, taking mountain area of southern Ningxia as an example, the theoretical assumes are verified. The results show that the rise of opportunity cost of farm labor leads to less diversified cropping structure.