Factors Influencing Price of Agricultural Products and Stability Countermeasures

Factors leading to rise of prices of agricultural products mainly include tension of supply-demand relationship,promotion of production cost and circulation cost,and speculation of Refugee Capital(Hot Money).Factors leading to low price and difficult sales of agricultural products mainly include asymmetry of supply-demand information,lack of risk management tools for prices of agricultural products and decentralized and small-scaled operation of farmers.On the basis of these factors,this paper presents following countermeasures and suggestions for stabilizing prices of agricultural products:firstly,building long-effect mechanism for production and sales of agricultural products;secondly,expand the production and increase supply of agricultural products;thirdly,control the rising range of production cost for agricultural products;fourthly,enhance organization level of farmers;fifthly,promote innovation and development of risk management tools for prices of agricultural products.

Empirical Study on the Impact of Rural Labor Force Flow on the Price of Agricultural Products——A Method Based on VEC Model

Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars,dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model,according to the data of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products in the years 1990-2007.Chows breakpoint test is used to measure the stage characteristics of the impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product.Result shows that there is a long-term and stationary relationship between the flow quantity of rural labor force and the price of agricultural product.Rural labor force flow,as an exogenous force,affects the agricultural production,and further influences the price fluctuation of agricultural products.Impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product is from weak to strong,then grows gradually weaker,and reaches its peak value at the year 1998.With the development of rural society and economy and the market process,rural labor force flow endogenously affects the price of agricultural product,which has periodic characteristics.In order to achieve a dual stabilization of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products,the following countermeasures are put forward:vigorously developing vocational education,increasing the support for agricultural production,and making active employment measures.

Price transmission in hog and feed markets of China

There is an increasing demand for feed as the industrialization of hog production in China. Land scarcity limits China＇s ability to continue increasing its hog production without feed imports, particularly soybean, and the feed markets are increasingly integrated into the global market. This study performs an analysis of price transmission between the hog price in China and feed prices, specifically domestic maize price and international soybean price, from January 2000 to April 2014. We identified a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the three markets. However, further analyses show that there is no significant Granger causality between hog and feed market, and the long-run equilibrium partially results from Granger causality between the international soybean market and domestic maize market. This suggests that the domestic hog market has been distorted by different policies. The results also indicate that the efficiency of price transmission is very low and it takes about 11 months to correct one-half of any long-run disequilibrium for the hog market in China. Therefore, to stabilize hog price in China, only market intervention to regulate the maize and soybean markets would be insufficient and comprehensive measures need to be taken into account such as hog production modernization, agricultural insurance, epidemic surveillance etc.

Forecast on Price of Agricultural Futures in China Based on ARIMA Model

The forecast on price of agricultural futures is studied in this paper. We use the ARIMA model to estimate the price trends of agricultural futures,which can help the investors to optimize their investing plans. The soybean future contracts are taken as an example to simulate the forecast based on the auto-regression coefficient(p),differential times(d) and moving average coefficient(q). The results show that ARIMA model is better to simulate and forecast the trend of closing prices of soybean futures contract,and it is applicable to forecasting the price of agricultural futures.

Feasibility Analysis of Agricultural Product Price Index Insurance Based on Pilot Cases

Agricultural product price index insurance is a kind of index insurance. It avoids defects of traditional agricultural insurance,such as moral hazards,adverse selection,and high management cost. On the basis of studying agricultural product price index insurance of all areas of China,this paper analyzed characteristics of agricultural product price index insurance from object selection,product object,premium design,and policy support,and discussed feasibility of extending agricultural product price index insurance in an all-round way.

Chinese Honey Positioning and Price Trend in Domestic Market

China's bee industry is a small proportion of domestic agriculture with fewer farmers, and the government didn't attach much attention to or give supports to it. Agricultural production sector does not fully recognize the economic value of honeybee pollination. Chinese beekeepers gain profits only from products such as honey, royal jelly and bee pollen. Because of the production mode that aims at gathering and producing more honey while neglecting the health care of bees and the quality of products; export enterprises lack guidance and knowledge in export inspection and quarantine and technical regulations, and thus, the average price of China's bee honey exports is much lower than that of other countries in the world. Meanwhile, in domestic market, given the sustained development of China's macro economy and increasing incomes of residents, people show increasing interests in the health care function of honey. Based on the survey data of honey market in Beijing, Hangzhou, Qingdao, Zhengzhou and Chengdu from 2012 to 2015, the paper analyzes the price feature of China's honey market and its formulation basis, and also compares prices of honey with the same quality in different markets. Moreover, the paper combines data from fixed observation places of honey products production, which is carried out by the economic research group of bee industry in 11 provinces, to discuss reasons for continuous honey price rising in domestic market. Lastly, the paper uses the honey as an example to analyze pricing strategy of agricultural products with health care functions. The paper hold the opinions that the keys to solve the problem that high quality agricultural material couldn't sell in high price and good and bad are mixed in the market, is to build up quality and price mechanism in the processing of raw material purchasing to the terminal market, publicize more products information and superior customer attractiveness on health care effect.

Analysis of the Price of Development Right of Agricultural Land in China

According to the viewpoints of predecessors, we define the signification of development right of agricultural land and connotation of the price of development right of agricultural land as follows: the development right of agricultural land is to change the former use nature of agricultural land, so as to become the right of construction use land; the price of development right of agricultural land refers to the price that is difference between the price of construction use land, and summation of the price of former agricultural land, the expense of developing agricultural land, the expense of management, and profit, after the agricultural land is transformed into non-agricultural construction use land. By using the principle of economics of land, this paper expounds the generation mechanism of the price of development right of agricultural land, namely the diversity of agricultural land use and the change of demand and supply of development right of agricultural land. The influencing factors of the development right of agricultural land are analyzed, and there are mainly the price of agricultural land, the price of construction use land, the contradiction of demand and supply of urban land, land use, and agricultural land.

Net Outflow of Rural Capital in China:1978-2012

This paper investigates the mechanism, scale, and development tendencies of capital flow between China＇s rural and urban areas over 35 years of reform and opening up. The following conclusions are reached. First, between 1978 and2012, the net capital flow from rural areas to urban areas through the fiscal and financial systems and the price scissors of industrial and agricultural goods amounted to RMB 26. 66 trillion （by 2012price level）. Second, prior to 1994, the outflow of rural capital continued accelerating; starting from the late 1990s, the net outflow of rural capital slowed down but the overall scale remained significant. Third, the contributions by the three capital flow channels （the fiscal system, financial institutions, and the price scissors of agricultural and industrial products） to the net outflow of rural capital varied greatly across different historical periods： prior to the establishment of the market economic system （1978-1993）, most of the rural capital left the countryside in the form of price scissors of agricultural and industrial goods; during the 15 years after the establishment of the market economic system in China （1994-2007）, rural capital flowed into cities mainly through the fiscal system; with the market-oriented reform of the rural financial systems in recent years （2008-2012）, financial institutions became a major channel for the extraction of rural capital. Based on our study, we believe that in the course of more than three decades of reform and opening up, China was in the stage of extracting rural capital and that the contemporary China should enter into a new stage of development by diverting resources to the countryside to support its development. Our recommendation is that the existing fiscal and financial policies be adjusted to boost fiscal spending on agriculture, farmers, and the countryside, and to establish an inclusive, modern rural financial system.

The Impacts of Trade Restrictions on World Agricultural Price Volatility during the COVID-19 Pandemic

During the COVID-19 pandemic,countries applied trade restrictions to insulate their domestic markets from the world market.However,these trade policies could have amplified international market price fluctuations.This paper explores the effects of trade restrictions on international agricultural price volatility.A theoretical model is developed to quantify how trade policies amplify the initial shock.Using panel data covering 71 countries from January 2020 to July 2021,we examine empirically the effects of trade policies on world agricultural price volatility.The results show that trade distortions further induced volatility of world agricultural prices by around 22 percent during the COVID-19 pandemic.The multiplier effects are much more substantial in agricultural exporting countries than in importing countries.Large countries like China and the US could make significant contributions to stabilizing world prices by limiting the extent of unilateral trade policy interventions.

An Agent-based Simulation Model of Wheat Market Operation:The Benefit of Support Price

Grain security is one of the most important issues worldwide.Many developing countries,including China,have adopted the Agriculture Support Price(ASP)program to stimulate farmers’enthusiasm for growing grain,to ensure self-sufficiency in grain and the stable development of the grain market.To propose decision support for the government in designing a more reasonable support price in the ASP program,we formulate an agent-based model to simulate the operation of the wheat market in the harvest period.To formulate the formation process of the market price influenced by farmers’expected sale price,processors’expected purchase price,and the ASP,the time series and regression methods are adopted.Based on the proposed market price model,to quantitatively analyze the grain transaction process and the ASP program’s impacts on market agents,we develop an agent-based simulation model to describe the adaptive evolution and interaction among market agents.Furthermore,we validate and implement the simulation model with public wheat market data.Finally,insights and suggestions about the decision of the ASP program are provided.

Agriculture Modernization

Rural work conference maps out reform plans toimprove China＇s agriculture industryChina hopes to reform its agriculture sector this year to increase food produce quality,reduce the grain oversupply and help rural populations living in poverty achieve prosperity.The plan was laid out at the end of December of last year when Chinese leaders held a central rural work conference to review how the agriculture industry performed in 2015