Asian agriculture is responsible for two thirds of global agricultural GDP. There have been numerous studies exploring the impact of climate change on crops in specific locations in Asia but no study has yet analyzed ...Asian agriculture is responsible for two thirds of global agricultural GDP. There have been numerous studies exploring the impact of climate change on crops in specific locations in Asia but no study has yet analyzed crops across the entire continent. This study relies on a Ricardian study of China that estimated climate coefficients for Chinese crops. These coefficients are then used to interpolate potential climate damages across the continent. With carbon fertilization, the model predicts small aggregate effects with a 1.5℃ warming but damages of about USS84 billion with 3℃ warming. India is predicted to be especially vulnerable.展开更多
Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.The region’s climate is continental,mostly semi-arid to arid.Agriculture is a significant part of...Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.The region’s climate is continental,mostly semi-arid to arid.Agriculture is a significant part of the region’s economy.By its nature of intensive water use,agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change.Population growth and irrigation development have significantly increased the demand for water in the region.Major climate change issues include melting glaciers and a shrinking snowpack,which are the foundation of the region’s water resources,and a changing precipitation regime.Most glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,leading to transboundary water resource issues.Summer already has extremely high temperatures.Analyses indicate that Central Asia has been warming and precipitation might be increasing.The warming is expected to increase,but its spatial and temporal distribution depends upon specific global scenarios.Projections of future precipitation show significant uncertainties in type,amount,and distribution.Regional Hydroclimate Projects(RHPs)are an approach to studying these issues.Initial steps to develop an RHP began in 2021 with a widely distributed online survey about these climate issues.It was followed up with an online workshop and then,in 2023,an in-person workshop,held in Tashkent,Uzbekistan.Priorities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)project for the region include both observations and modeling,as well as development of better and additional precipitation observations,all of which are topics for the next workshop.A well-designed RHP should lead to reductions in critical climate uncertainties in policy-relevant timeframes that can influence decisions on necessary investments in climate adaptation.展开更多
文摘Asian agriculture is responsible for two thirds of global agricultural GDP. There have been numerous studies exploring the impact of climate change on crops in specific locations in Asia but no study has yet analyzed crops across the entire continent. This study relies on a Ricardian study of China that estimated climate coefficients for Chinese crops. These coefficients are then used to interpolate potential climate damages across the continent. With carbon fertilization, the model predicts small aggregate effects with a 1.5℃ warming but damages of about USS84 billion with 3℃ warming. India is predicted to be especially vulnerable.
基金The National Research University Tashkent Institute of Irrigation and Agricultural Mechanization Engineers of Uzbekistan hosted and provided financial support for the in-person workshop in May of 2023
文摘Central Asia consists of the former Soviet Republics,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyz Republic,Tajikistan,Turkmenistan,and Uzbekistan.The region’s climate is continental,mostly semi-arid to arid.Agriculture is a significant part of the region’s economy.By its nature of intensive water use,agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change.Population growth and irrigation development have significantly increased the demand for water in the region.Major climate change issues include melting glaciers and a shrinking snowpack,which are the foundation of the region’s water resources,and a changing precipitation regime.Most glaciers are located in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan,leading to transboundary water resource issues.Summer already has extremely high temperatures.Analyses indicate that Central Asia has been warming and precipitation might be increasing.The warming is expected to increase,but its spatial and temporal distribution depends upon specific global scenarios.Projections of future precipitation show significant uncertainties in type,amount,and distribution.Regional Hydroclimate Projects(RHPs)are an approach to studying these issues.Initial steps to develop an RHP began in 2021 with a widely distributed online survey about these climate issues.It was followed up with an online workshop and then,in 2023,an in-person workshop,held in Tashkent,Uzbekistan.Priorities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)project for the region include both observations and modeling,as well as development of better and additional precipitation observations,all of which are topics for the next workshop.A well-designed RHP should lead to reductions in critical climate uncertainties in policy-relevant timeframes that can influence decisions on necessary investments in climate adaptation.
