This research applies network structuring theories to the aviation domain and predicts aviation network growth, considering a flight connection between airports as a link between nodes. Our link prediction approach is...This research applies network structuring theories to the aviation domain and predicts aviation network growth, considering a flight connection between airports as a link between nodes. Our link prediction approach is based on network structure information, and to improve prediction accuracy, it is necessary to estimate the mechanism of aviation network growth. This research critically evaluates the prediction accuracy of two methods: the receiver operating characteristic curve method (ROC) and the logistic regression method. We propose a four-step method to evaluate the relative predictive accuracy among different link prediction methods. A case study of US aviation networks indicated that the ROC method provided better prediction accuracy compared with the logistic regression method. This result suggests that tuning of the prediction distribution and the regression model coefficients can further improve the accuracy of the logistic regression method.展开更多
为探究全服务航空公司航线网络演化影响因素及演化模型,以全球排名前10的全服务航空公司为研究对象,基于链路预测思想,对5种内生属性相似性指标和3种外生属性相似性指标及耦合相似性指标分别进行曲线下面积(Area Under Curve,AUC)计算,...为探究全服务航空公司航线网络演化影响因素及演化模型,以全球排名前10的全服务航空公司为研究对象,基于链路预测思想,对5种内生属性相似性指标和3种外生属性相似性指标及耦合相似性指标分别进行曲线下面积(Area Under Curve,AUC)计算,选取AUC值最高的相似性指标进行航线预测及验证,并构建基于链路预测的全服务航空公司航线网络改进BBV动态加权演化模型.研究结果表明:基于优先连接(Preferential Attachment,PA)指标和机场航班量指标的耦合相似性指标的AUC值最高,是影响全服务航空公司航线网络演化的关键指标;在基于该耦合相似性指标的链路预测算法中,平均航线命中率达45.79%,AUC值达95%以上;相比于传统BBV模型,改进BBV动态加权演化模型的航线数拟合准确率平均提升了4.43%,能够较为科学地拟合不同全服务航空公司航线网络的扩张与收缩演变过程.展开更多
文摘This research applies network structuring theories to the aviation domain and predicts aviation network growth, considering a flight connection between airports as a link between nodes. Our link prediction approach is based on network structure information, and to improve prediction accuracy, it is necessary to estimate the mechanism of aviation network growth. This research critically evaluates the prediction accuracy of two methods: the receiver operating characteristic curve method (ROC) and the logistic regression method. We propose a four-step method to evaluate the relative predictive accuracy among different link prediction methods. A case study of US aviation networks indicated that the ROC method provided better prediction accuracy compared with the logistic regression method. This result suggests that tuning of the prediction distribution and the regression model coefficients can further improve the accuracy of the logistic regression method.
文摘为探究全服务航空公司航线网络演化影响因素及演化模型,以全球排名前10的全服务航空公司为研究对象,基于链路预测思想,对5种内生属性相似性指标和3种外生属性相似性指标及耦合相似性指标分别进行曲线下面积(Area Under Curve,AUC)计算,选取AUC值最高的相似性指标进行航线预测及验证,并构建基于链路预测的全服务航空公司航线网络改进BBV动态加权演化模型.研究结果表明:基于优先连接(Preferential Attachment,PA)指标和机场航班量指标的耦合相似性指标的AUC值最高,是影响全服务航空公司航线网络演化的关键指标;在基于该耦合相似性指标的链路预测算法中,平均航线命中率达45.79%,AUC值达95%以上;相比于传统BBV模型,改进BBV动态加权演化模型的航线数拟合准确率平均提升了4.43%,能够较为科学地拟合不同全服务航空公司航线网络的扩张与收缩演变过程.
