In this paper,the influence of the El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on the sensitivity of nonlinear factors in the numerical simulation is investigated by conducting numerical experiments in a simple air-sea co...In this paper,the influence of the El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on the sensitivity of nonlinear factors in the numerical simulation is investigated by conducting numerical experiments in a simple air-sea coupled model for ENSO prediction.Two sets of experiments are conducted in which zonal nonlinear factors,meridional nonlinear factors,or both are incorporated into the governing equations for the atmosphere or ocean.The results suggest that the ENSO cycle is very sensitive to the nonlinear factor of the governing equation for the atmosphere or ocean.Thus,incorporating nonlinearity into air-sea coupled models is of exclusive importance for improving ENSO simulation.展开更多
A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the ...A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The "observation" of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a "truth" model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.展开更多
A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to...A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.展开更多
Understanding the drifting motion of a small semi-submersible drifter is of vital importance regarding monitoring surface currents and the floating pollutants in coastal regions. This work addresses this issue by esta...Understanding the drifting motion of a small semi-submersible drifter is of vital importance regarding monitoring surface currents and the floating pollutants in coastal regions. This work addresses this issue by establishing a mechanistic drifting forecast model based on kinetic analysis. Taking tide–wind–wave into consideration, the forecast model is validated against in situ drifting experiment in the Radial Sand Ridges. Model results show good performance with respect to the measured drifting features, characterized by migrating back and forth twice a day with daily downwind displacements. Trajectory models are used to evaluate the influence of the individual hydrodynamic forcing. The tidal current is the fundamental dynamic condition in the Radial Sand Ridges and has the greatest impact on the drifting distance. However, it loses its leading position in the field of the daily displacement of the used drifter. The simulations reveal that different hydrodynamic forces dominate the daily displacement of the used drifter at different wind scales. The wave-induced mass transport has the greatest influence on the daily displacement at Beaufort wind scale 5–6; while wind drag contributes mostly at wind scale 2–4.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40676016)
文摘In this paper,the influence of the El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle on the sensitivity of nonlinear factors in the numerical simulation is investigated by conducting numerical experiments in a simple air-sea coupled model for ENSO prediction.Two sets of experiments are conducted in which zonal nonlinear factors,meridional nonlinear factors,or both are incorporated into the governing equations for the atmosphere or ocean.The results suggest that the ENSO cycle is very sensitive to the nonlinear factor of the governing equation for the atmosphere or ocean.Thus,incorporating nonlinearity into air-sea coupled models is of exclusive importance for improving ENSO simulation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41490644,41475101 and 41421005)the CAS Strategic Priority Project(the Western Pacific Ocean System+2 种基金Project Nos.XDA11010105,XDA11020306 and XDA11010301)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(Grant No.U1406401)the NSFC Innovative Group Grant(Project No.41421005)
文摘A four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model (ICM) of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The "observation" of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a "truth" model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.
文摘A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC0405401)the National Science&Technology Pillar Program(Grant No.2012BAB03B01)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,Hohai University(Grant No.2014B30914)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BK2012411)
文摘Understanding the drifting motion of a small semi-submersible drifter is of vital importance regarding monitoring surface currents and the floating pollutants in coastal regions. This work addresses this issue by establishing a mechanistic drifting forecast model based on kinetic analysis. Taking tide–wind–wave into consideration, the forecast model is validated against in situ drifting experiment in the Radial Sand Ridges. Model results show good performance with respect to the measured drifting features, characterized by migrating back and forth twice a day with daily downwind displacements. Trajectory models are used to evaluate the influence of the individual hydrodynamic forcing. The tidal current is the fundamental dynamic condition in the Radial Sand Ridges and has the greatest impact on the drifting distance. However, it loses its leading position in the field of the daily displacement of the used drifter. The simulations reveal that different hydrodynamic forces dominate the daily displacement of the used drifter at different wind scales. The wave-induced mass transport has the greatest influence on the daily displacement at Beaufort wind scale 5–6; while wind drag contributes mostly at wind scale 2–4.