Ecological problems and ecological restoration zoning of the Aral Sea

The Aral Sea was the fourth largest lake in the world but it has shrunk dramatically as a result of irrational human activities, triggering the "Aral Sea ecological crisis". The ecological problems of the Aral Sea have attracted widespread attention, and the alleviation of the Aral Sea ecological crisis has reached a consensus among the five Central Asian countries(Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan). In the past decades, many ecological management measures have been implemented for the ecological restoration of the Aral Sea. However, due to the lack of regional planning and zoning, the results are not ideal. In this study, we mapped the ecological zoning of the Aral Sea from the perspective of ecological restoration based on soil type, soil salinity, surface water, groundwater table, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), land cover, and aerosol optical depth(AOD) data. Soil salinization and salt dust are the most prominent ecological problems in the Aral Sea. We divided the Aral Sea into 7 first-level ecological restoration subregions(North Aral Sea catchment area in the downstream of the Syr Darya River(Subregion Ⅰ);artificial flood overflow area in the downstream of the Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅱ);physical/chemical remediation area of the salt dust source area in the eastern part of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅲ);physical/chemical remediation area of severe salinization in the central part of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅳ);existing water surface and potential restoration area of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅴ);Aral Sea vegetation natural recovery area(Subregion Ⅵ);and vegetation planting area with slight salinization in the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅶ)) and 14 second-level ecological restoration subregions according to the ecological zoning principles. Implementable measures are proposed for each ecological restoration subregion. For Subregion Ⅰ and Subregion Ⅱ with lower elevations, artificial flooding should be carried out to restore the surface of the Aral Sea. Subregion Ⅲ and Subregion Ⅳ have severe salinization, making it difficult for vegetation to grow. In these subregions, it is recommended to cover and pave the areas with green biomatrix coverings and environmentally sustainable bonding materials. In Subregion Ⅴ located in the central and western parts of the South Aral Sea, surface water recharge should be increased to ensure that this subregion can maintain normal water levels. In Subregion Ⅵ and Subregion Ⅶ where natural conditions are suitable for vegetation growth, measures such as afforestation and buffer zones should be implemented to protect vegetation. This study could provide a reference basis for future comprehensive ecological management and restoration of the Aral Sea.

Detailed seismic zoning of the East Kazakhstan region in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Projected Changes in the Climate Zoning of Côte d’Ivoire

This study assesses the projected changes in the climate zoning of Côte d’Ivoire using the hierarchical classification of principal components (HCPC) method applied to the daily precipitation data of an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-AFRICA simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate the existence of three climate zones in Côte d’Ivoire (the coastal, the centre and the north) over the historical period (1981-2005). Moreover, CORDEX simulations project an extension of the surface area of drier climatic zones while a reduction of wetter zones, associated with the appearance of an intermediate climate zone with surface area varying from 77,560 km2 to 134,960 km2 depending on the period and the scenario. These results highlight the potential impacts of climate change on the delimitation of the climate zones of Côte d’Ivoire under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Thus, there is a reduction in the surface areas suitable for the production of cash crops such as cocoa and coffee. This could hinder the country’s economy and development, mainly based on these cash crops.

Selection of Water Transmission Method and Analysis of Pipe Network Zoning in Municipal Water Supply and Drainage Design

With the acceleration of urbanization,the demand for water supply and drainage pipe networks has increased significantly.In the planning of urban construction,it is necessary to optimize the design of the water supply and drainage system pipe network to effectively save energy while providing residents with more accessible water resources.Therefore,the municipal water supply and drainage system and the water transmission methods should be designed according to the geographical conditions of the city.In this paper,we mainly analyze the design of municipal water supply and drainage systems and the selection of water transmission methods.Besides,the optimization of the water supply and drainage network zoning process and pipe network maintenance is also discussed,so as to provide a reference for municipal water supply and drainage work.

Determining safe yield and mapping water level zoning in groundwater resources of the Neishabour Plain

Groundwater is a crucial sources of water supply,especially in arid and semi-arid areas around the world.With uncontrolled withdrawals and limited availability of these resources,it is essential to determine the safe yield of these valuable resources.The Hill method approach was used in this study to determine the safe yield the Neishabour aquifer in Khorasan Razvi province in Iran.The results showed that the safe yield in the Neishabour aquifer is 60%lower than the current pumping amounts during the study period,indicating that further overdrafts could result in the destruction of this aquifer.This highlights the importance of using the Hill method to estimate the permitted exploitation from other aquifers,thus preventing problems caused by over-extraction and maintaining stability of global groundwater levels.

Dual-objective pattern optimization method for land suitability zoning in mountain counties

As the basic administrative unit of China,counties have grown rapidly in recent years in the context of rapid urbanization,especially for counties located in mountainous areas.The drastic changes in land in mountainous areas can easily cause irreversible damage to the sensitive ecological environment.Through the dual-objective suitability zoning of ecological and construction balance,regional sustainable land use patterns can be realized.In this study,Hantai District in Southern Shaanxi province,China,was chosen as the research area aiming at creating a balance between ecological supply and the development of construction in spatial planning.A dual-objective process evaluation system for ecological protection and construction development was proposed with 15 resistance factors selected from three attributes:natural ecology,economic society,and policy.The minimum resistance surface discrimination methods for ecological land and construction development land were proposed based on vertical space superposition and horizontal minimum cumulative resistance models.Finally,the land in Hantai District was divided into four development grades from the optimal angle of dual goals,i.e.,the construction core zone being 134.56 km^(2),the suitable construction zone 115.77 km2,the ecological buffer zone 153.74 km^(2),and the ecological control zone 151.93 km^(2),using the method combining resistance difference and threshold division.In addition,the development direction of each town under jurisdiction was identified.This study compensates for the deficiency of traditional methods that evaluate land only from a single vertical or horizontal process.

Textural and compositional zoning in plagioclase phenocrysts:implications for magma chamber processes in the Emeishan large Igneous Province,SW China

Textural and compositional zoning within plagioclase phenocrysts records the magma chamber processes,such as magma differentiation,magma recharge and mixing,and crustal contamination.The plagioclase phenocrysts in the Daqiao and Qiaojia plagioclase-phyric basalts from the Emeishan Large Igneous Province(LIP)show complex textural and compositional zoning patterns,e.g.,normal,reverse,oscillatory,and patchy zoning patterns.Most plagioclase phenocrysts exhibit a core–rim normal zoning pattern(Pl-A)with euhedral high-An cores(An=76–78%,in mole fraction)and low-An rims(An=68–72%),indicative of the crystal regrowth processes caused by recharge of relatively evolved magmas after the formation of high-An cores.Some phenocrysts have a core–rim reverse zoning pattern(Pl-B)with irregular ovaloid cores,characterized by extremely low An(60–61 mol%)and Ba(84–88 ppm)contents and extremely high87Sr/86Sr ratios(0.7120–0.7130).The rims of the Pl-B have relatively high An(69–72%),Ba(~160 ppm)contents,and low87Sr/86Sri(~0.7056).These Pl-B plagioclase phenocrysts preserve the information about the interaction between the crustal xenocrysts and the transporting magmas.Some plagioclase phenocrysts show a core–mantle–rim oscillatory zoning pattern(Pl-C)with multiple oscillations of An(70–80%),Ba(88–147ppm)from core to rim,revealing replenishment and mixing of multiple batches of basaltic melts with diverse compositions.87Sr/86Sr ratios of the Pl-C do not vary significantly(0.7050–0.7054).A small portion of phenocrysts has patchy patterns in the cores(Pl-D),where the low-An patches(72–75%)in form of elliptical or irregular elongated shapes were enclosed by the high-An domains(80–87%).These features can be attributed to crystal dissolution and regrowth processes during the reaction between earlyformed low-Cumulates and recharged hot primitive melts.The cores,mantles,and rims of different types of plagioclase phenocrysts(except the core of Pl-B)commonly display nearly constant Sr isotopic compositions,implying insignificant wall-rock assimilation at shallow-level magma reservoir(s)during the growth of these plagioclase phenocrysts.In conclusion,the massive crystallization of plagioclase in the late stage was an important controlling factor for the formation of iron-rich basalts in the Emeishan LIP.

Zoning Evaluation of Hourly Precipitation in High-resolution Regional Numerical Models over Hainan Island

This study assesses the performance of three high-resolution regional numerical models in predicting hourly rainfall over Hainan Island from April to October for the years from 2020 to 2022.The rainfall amount,frequency,intensity,duration,and diurnal cycle are examined through zoning evaluation.The results show that the China Meteor-ological Administration Guangdong Rapid Update Assimilation Numerical Forecast System(CMA-GD)tends to forecast a higher occurrence of light precipitation.It underestimates the late afternoon precipitation and the occurrence of short-duration events.The China Meteorological Administration Shanghai Numerical Forecast Model System(CMA-SH9)reproduces excessive precipitation at a higher frequency and intensity throughout the island.It overestimates rainfall during the late afternoon and midnight periods.The simulated most frequent peak times of rainfall in CMA-SH9 are 0-1 hour deviations from the observed data.The China Meteorological Administration Mesoscale Weather Numerical Forecasting System(CMA-MESO)displays a similar pattern to rainfall observations but fails to replicate reasonable structure and diurnal variation of frequency-intensity.It underestimates the occurrence of long-duration events and overestimates related rainfall amounts from midnight to early morning.Notably,significant discrepancies are observed in the predictions of the three models for areas with complex terrain,such as the central,southeastern,and southwestern regions of Hainan Island.

Zoning Control of Health of Farmland System

In addition to the quality and quantity of farmland, the health of farmland has also become an important research direction in the field of farmland protection. In order to comprehensively evaluate the relationship and distribution of health and farmland production capacity, the depression area behind the Yellow River in Henan Province is taken as the research object. Using production capacity evaluation data and system health evaluation results, the health status and production capacity of farmland in the region are coupled. The results show that high productivity farmland is most distributed in areas with moderate health risks, while low productivity farmland is more distributed in areas with low health risks. Based on their coupling characteristics, the depression area behind the Yellow River can be divided into five types, and management and protection strategies can be formulated separately.

全球天然氢气勘探开发利用进展及中国的勘探前景

在全球能源脱碳背景下,天然氢气作为一种一次能源,因其零碳、可再生的优点而备受关注,但中国目前还未开展专门针对天然氢气的勘探工作。通过介绍全球已知高含量天然氢气(体积分数大于10%)气藏的主要形成地质环境及成因类型,系统总结了天然氢气富集的有利地质条件,并结合国外天然氢气的勘探开发现状,评价了中国天然氢气的勘探前景。研究结果表明:(1)全球高含量天然氢气主要发育于蛇绿岩带、裂谷和前寒武系富铁地层中,且以无机成因为主,富铁矿物的蛇纹石化过程是天然氢气最主要的成因来源,其次为地球深部脱气和水的辐解。(2)优质的氢源与良好的运移通道是氢气富集的前提,而盖层的封盖能力是天然氢气能否成藏的关键要素;天然氢气作为伴生气时,传统盖层对其具备封盖能力,但当其含量较高时,传统盖层可能难以形成有效封盖;裂谷环境、蛇绿岩发育区以及断裂发育的前寒武系富铁地层是富氢气藏的勘探有利区。(3)国外多个国家和地区已制定了天然氢气的勘探开发和利用计划,其中,马里已实现天然氢气的商业开采,美国、澳大利亚也已成功钻探天然氢气勘探井。(4)中国高含量氢气区与富氢地质条件高度匹配,天然氢气勘探前景良好,郯庐断裂带及周缘裂陷盆地区、阿尔金断裂带及两侧盆地区、三江构造带—龙门山断裂带及周缘盆地区的天然氢气勘探潜力较大;中国应尽快开展天然氢气普查工作,加强氢气成藏过程研究和潜力评价,并进行勘探技术、开采分离技术和储运技术的攻关,为天然氢气的大规模开发利用做好技术储备。

塔里木盆地西北缘沙井子断裂带的构造特征与形成演化

塔里木盆地西北缘的沙井子断裂带,位于塔北隆起的温宿凸起和北部坳陷的阿瓦提凹陷之间。它是塔里木盆地的一条一级断裂带,由沙井子断裂、英雄断裂、温宿断裂和沙南断裂组成。其中沙井子断裂是主干断裂,其它3条是其分支断裂。本轮研究新发现温宿分支断裂,并将沙南断裂解释为英雄断裂前缘的反冲断层,归属沙井子断裂带。沙井子断裂带的雏形形成于奥陶纪末—志留纪初,在泥盆纪末—石炭纪、二叠纪末—三叠纪初、侏罗纪末—白垩纪初、白垩纪末—古近纪初和新近纪—第四纪发生过多期冲断作用和新近纪末—第四纪初的张扭性构造变形后,才最终定型。沙井子断裂带是一条断控油气富集区带,温宿油田、托探1油藏、沙南1油藏、新苏地1油气藏等都受其控制。

高质量区域空间格局构建下中国经济区划调整研究

经济区划调整对于塑造面向高质量发展的区域空间格局具有重要意义。本文梳理了1949年以来中国经济区域划分方案,分析了改革开放以来,东部、中部、西部和东北地区四大经济区的划分逻辑与影响。以规模经济、专业化分工以及知识要素为主导所形成的新空间集聚等第二性地理因素逐渐替代资源禀赋等第一性地理因素,成为区域经济增长的主要动力。当前,中国区域协调发展面临着“三北”经济增长乏力、区域差异扩大及区域经济增长差距由东西分化转变为南北分化等挑战。随着中心城市和城市群成为承载发展要素的主要空间形式,中国经济发展模式从外向型经济为主转变为内向型经济与外向型经济协调发展,经济空间格局也需进行相应调整。本文提出划分五大经济区域的新方案,将原来的四大经济区调整为东南、西南、东北、华北、西北五大经济区,从而强化经济区内部联系,更好地发挥区域中心城市的辐射带动作用,顺应构建高质量区域空间格局的需求。

猪毛菜响应干旱胁迫的叶片结构、生理及转录组分析

为探究猪毛菜在表型、生理及分子层面对干旱胁迫的响应机制,采用控水法进行梯度干旱胁迫,对叶片进行解剖结构和生理指标测定及转录组测序。结果表明:干旱胁迫导致栅栏组织从致密变稀疏,晶簇先消失后增多;贮水组织厚度先增大后降低(P<0.05),主维管束面积和表皮厚度在28 d时显著增大,分别为(3099.72±151.88)μm^(2)和(23.73±0.68)μm(P<0.05),叶片厚度增大而叶面积减小(P<0.05);叶绿素含量逐渐降低(P<0.05),超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)和过氧化物酶(POD)活性、脯氨酸和丙二醛(MDA)含量在28 d显著增大(P<0.05),H2O2含量在14 d显著增大(P<0.05),可溶性蛋白含量先增后降再增(P<0.05)。与0 d比较,干旱胁迫7、14和28 d的差异表达基因(DEGs)分别有103、1560和270个;基因本体(GO)富集分析表明各组合DEGs显著富集在蛋白质磷酸酶Ⅰ型复合体、膜的整体组件、氧化还原过程、氧化还原酶活性等条目中;京都基因与基因组百科全书(KEGG)富集分析表明各组合DEGs同时显著富集在氧化磷酸化代谢、核糖体和光传导等通路中。非生物胁迫通路DEGs分析表明,热激蛋白基因、GPX2、POD、SOD、CPK19、CIPK9、MAP激酶基因、蛋白质降解通路基因、UXS1和F3H等参与对干旱胁迫的响应调节。研究结果可为进一步研究猪毛菜抗旱机制提供参考。

8个紫花苜蓿品种在干热区生产性能和营养价值评价

为了筛选出适宜热带亚热带地区种植的苜蓿优良品种,在干热河谷区元谋,采用方差分析方法和灰色关联度分析方法,对2017年引进的8个紫花苜蓿品种进行生产性能和营养价值研究。结果表明:(1)参试的8个紫花苜蓿,在本区均能安全越冬,正常生长,生育期205~215 d。(2)株高最高的品种为WL525HQ,达到70.20 cm,与维多利亚、德钦、赛迪7号和WL712HQ品种有显著差异(P<0.05)。一级分枝数最高的品种为WL656品种,为27.20枝,WL712HQ和G8品种间有显著差异(P<0.05)。茎叶比最高的品种为WL712HQ品种,为1.10,与德钦和赛迪7号品种间有显著差异(P<0.05)。年均干草产量最高的是赛迪7号紫花苜蓿,显著高于德钦品种(P<0.05),2018年、2019年、2020年和三年的平均产量分别为34217.40 kg/hm^(2)、32527.55 kg/hm^(2)、22024.93 kg/hm^(2)和29589.96 kg/hm^(2),所有参试材料在2018年和2020年每年可刈割8次,2019年为9次。(3)5号品种粗蛋白和全磷含量显著高于其他品种(P<0.05),分别为21.43%和0.25%。WL903品种粗纤维含量显著高于其他品种(P<0.05),含量为23.51%。(4)经灰色关联度分析,8个紫花苜蓿品种排名前3的为赛迪7号、WL525HQ、维多利亚。综上,赛迪7号、‘WL-525HQ’、维多利亚表现较好,可在干热河谷区大面积推广应用。

典型喀斯特白云岩小流域土壤-表层岩溶带厚度空间异质性特征

土壤-表层岩溶带厚度是喀斯特地球关键带的关键指标,明确其空间异质性特征对于理解地球关键带结构演化机理以及评估水源涵养功能具有重要意义。在广西环江木连小流域1.4 km 2范围内,通过高密度电法(ERT)探测45条样线,共获取1731个样点的土壤-表层岩溶带厚度及环境因子数据资料,研究了土壤和表层岩溶带厚度的空间分布格局及其影响因素。结果表明,土壤和表层岩溶带厚度平均值分别为1.15 m和6.44 m,且分别呈现强变异程度和中等变异程度。地统计分析结果表明球状模型和指数模型分别可以反映土壤和表层岩溶带的空间结构特征。土壤厚度呈现中等空间自相关性,变程长,空间连续性好;而表层岩溶带呈现强烈的空间自相关性,变程短,空间依赖性强。土壤厚度受到环境因子(地形湿度指数、垂直曲率、曲率、坡向、坡度、高程、覆盖度、出露基岩率和植被归一化指数)的多重影响,而表层岩溶带厚度受部分环境因子影响的同时,与土壤厚度和植被类型的相关性更高。研究结果有助于喀斯特区土壤-表层岩溶带演化机理认识,并为土壤-表层岩溶带厚度的空间预测提供科学依据。

巷道蝶形破坏强度准则低敏感性研究及工程应用

巷道围岩的塑性区形态对巷道的破坏形式及破坏程度有重要影响。为探究三向应力场下塑性区形态演化过程,基于弹性力学推导了轴向应力表达式,并依据蝶形塑性区边界方程求解思路,确定了三维强度准则下三向塑性区近似解的求解方法。通过等球应力p、等偏应力q以及不同Lode角θσ来确定围岩应力加载方案,对不同三维强度准则下的围岩塑性区形态演化规律进行深入研究,论证了蝶形破坏的准则低敏感性。基于蝶形破坏理论对羊场湾160206回风巷道的非对称变形破坏机制及控制技术进行深入分析。研究结果表明:(1)在相同p、q及不同θσ的应力加载条件下,5种强度准则下的塑性区形态均呈现圆形、类椭圆及蝶形的演化规律,且每种强度准则在相同θσ的情况下围岩的塑性区形态基本一致。(2)相同应力大小、不同应力方向的加载方案下,围岩的塑性区形态大不相同。圆巷围岩的塑性区形态很大程度上由水平侧压比决定,轴向侧压对围岩的塑性区尺寸影响较大,对塑性区形态影响较小。(3)羊场湾160206回风巷道在叠加采动影响下顶板呈现非对称大变形破坏,基于蝶形塑性区支护思路,应用非对称锚杆索+超前单元支架+钻孔卸压的协同支护技术,取得了良好的支护效果。

一种基于“四区”的低渗透油藏CO_(2)埋存量计算方法及应用

CO_(2)驱油和埋存能有效减少温室气体排放量达到碳中和目标,已有的CO_(2)埋存量计算方法主要针对CO_(2)的静态埋存量进行粗略计算,未考虑实际生产过程中CO_(2)埋存量的变化。针对上述问题,运用CO_(2)溶解、CO_(2)波及体积和驱油机理,将CO_(2)驱油与埋存过程分为气相区、两相或近混相区、扩散区和油相区,并基于“四区法”计算CO_(2)埋存量,得到了不同烃类的注入孔隙体积倍数、注入压力、注气速度下的CO_(2)动态埋存量的变化规律。将研究成果应用于W油田低渗储层,结果表明:注入烃类孔隙体积倍数、压力、注气速度与总埋存量呈正相关性,当压力由12 MPa升至30 MPa,CO_(2)埋存总量增加15.53×10^(4)t;当注气速度由5 t/d增加至30 t/d,峰值CO_(2)埋存总量由3.51×10^(4)t提高至12.62×10^(4)t。研究成果可为同类油藏开展CO_(2)驱油与埋存项目提供新的思路。

鄂尔多斯活动地块及边界带1∶50万地震构造图编制

地震构造图是综合反映特定地区地震构造环境和地震活动水平的基础性图件,鄂尔多斯活动地块及边界带1∶50万地震构造图是国家重点研发计划“鄂尔多斯活动地块边界带动力学模型与强震危险性研究”项目的一个专题成果。该图以鄂尔多斯活动地块及边界带为编图范围,参照地震行业有关地震构造图编制标准和数据库标准,在系统收集和整理区域地理信息、地质、活动构造、地震、地球物理等资料的基础上,开展高分辨卫星影像解译,吸收项目最新研究成果,建设了编图所需的基础数据库;通过资料矢量化、地层界线修改、断层修改、图面修饰、图件复核等环节,编制成鄂尔多斯活动地块及边界带1∶50万地震构造图。该图反映了由银川盆地—贺兰山、弧形构造束、渭河盆地、山西地堑系、河套盆地等活动构造单元组成的鄂尔多斯活动地块边界带,以及相邻地块有关地震构造的最新资料,完善了鄂尔多斯地块及边界带活动构造几何学和运动学图像,建成了区域地震构造基础数据库。

某线震后轨道设计方案研究

2022年1月8日门源发生6.9级地震,造成某线隧道二衬坍塌、桥梁梁体移位、接触网脱落等基础、设备严重损坏,并伴随钢轨折断、扣件脱落、道床倾斜等轨道震害,是我国高速铁路首次遭遇的强震作用下严重受灾事件。结合震后预测余滑变形量水平150~300 mm,垂向100 mm条件下,在设防区段提出一种“三孔连体套管承轨台可调式WJ-8型扣件+长枕埋入式单层道床预留切割孔”新型大调整量无砟轨道结构方案。其中,三孔连体套管承轨台可调式WJ-8型扣件在既有WJ-8型扣件基础上通过增设铁承轨台、调距块和三联套管等部件可满足单股钢轨左右位置调整量达152 mm,长枕埋入式单层道床中预留切割孔,便于在基础变形超出扣件调整范围后切割纠偏;通过对余滑变形后线路拟合获得拨距包络图,确定了大调整量无砟轨道铺设范围。

泸定M S6.8地震震前变形特征及鲜水河断裂南东段地震活动性

针对鲜水河断裂带南东段的历史地震活动性和近10 a该断裂带上发生的中小震群展布特征,利用GNSS观测数据给出2022年泸定M S6.8地震震源区及周边区域的速度场、应变率场,识别此次地震震前的变形特征。GNSS速度场显示,鲜水河断裂带南东段走滑速率约为10 mm/a,区域整体运动为ES向,与断裂构造运动具有一致性;应变率场结果显示,发震断裂仍存在较强的剪切应变积累,汶川特大地震后随着应变能不断释放,龙门山断裂带的卸载作用间接影响鲜水河断裂带的南东段,该断裂长期处于应变积累高值的过渡区,现今仍具有较高的断层闭锁状态,该地区的地震活动趋势和地震危险性值得进一步关注和研究。