Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction: Influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors and errors reduction by low pass filter method

In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP results.This study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors.The original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP models.Secondly,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter method.Thirdly,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study case.Three typical machine learning models,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP models.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide sus-ceptibility.In conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random errors.

A nonparametric spectrum estimation method for dispersion and attenuation analysis of borehole acoustic measurements

Dispersion and attenuation analysis can be used to determine formation anisotropy induced by fractures,or stresses.In this paper,we propose a nonparametric spectrum estimation method to get phase dispersion characteristics and attenuation coefficient.By designing an appropriate vector filter,phase velocity,attenuation coefficient and amplitude can be inverted from the waveform recorded by the receiver array.Performance analysis of this algorithm is compared with Extended Prony Method(EPM)and Forward and Backward Matrix Pencil(FBMP)method.Based on the analysis results,the proposed method is capable of achieving high resolution and precision as the parametric spectrum estimation methods.At the meantime,it also keeps high stability as the other nonparametric spectrum estimation methods.At last,applications to synthetic waveforms modeled using finite difference method and real data show its efficiency.The real data processing results show that the P-wave attenuation log is more sensitive to oil formation compared to S-wave;and the S-wave attenuation log is more sensitive to shale formation compared to P-wave.

Analysis of the Influence Factors of Grain Supply-Demand Gap in China

Based on the analysis of the grain supply and demand gap’s current situation in China, this paper establishes an indicator system for the influence factors of grain supply and demand gap. Then this paper calculates the correlation degree between the main grain varieties’ supply and demand gap and its influence factors. The results show that sown area and unit yield have the greatest impact on wheat supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and unit yield have the greatest impact on corn supply and demand gap;per capita disposable income and agricultural mechanization level have the greatest impact on the supply and demand gap of soybean and rice. From the analysis results, we can obtain the difference between the factors affecting the grain supply and demand gap, and provide a certain theoretical basis and new ideas for the balance of grain supply and demand in China.

Source Apportionment of Ambient PM_(10) in the Urban Area of Longyan City,China:a Comparative Study Based on Chemical Mass Balance Model and Factor Analysis Method

In order to identify the day and night pollution sources of PM10 in ambient air in Longyan City,the authors analyzed the elemental composition of respirable particulate matters in the day and night ambient air samples and various pollution sources which were collected in January 2010 in Longyan with inductivity coupled plasma-mass spectrometry（ICP-MS）.Then chemical mass balance（CMB） model and factor analysis（FA） method were applied to comparatively study the inorganic components in the sources and receptor samples.The results of factor analysis show that the major sources were road dust,waste incineration and mixed sources which contained automobile exhaust,soil dust/secondary dust and coal dust during the daytime in Longyan City,China.There are two major sources of pollution which are soil dust and mixture sources of automobile exhaust and secondary dust during the night in Longyan.The results of CMB show that the major sources are secondary dust,automobile exhaust and road dust during the daytime in Longyan.The major sources are secondary dust,soil dust and automobile exhaust during the night in Longyan.The results of the two methods are similar to each other and the results will guide us to plan to control the PM10 pollution sources in Longyan.

A quantitative BP neural network analysis of the relationships between ΣREE content and impact factors in the Beibu Gulf

The distribution characteristics of rare earth elements （REE） in bottomsediments are influenced by many factors. Hence, conducting a quantitative analysis isdifficult. A qualitative analysis of the relationships between ΣREE content andprovenance, hydrodynamics, grain size and mineral distribution in the Beibu Gulf showsthat terrestrial rocks control the ΣREE composition. Both weaker hydrodynamics andfiner grain size lead to a higher ΣREE content. Relative curves revealing therelationships between individual impact factors and ΣREE content were obtained fromthe combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses of the BP neural network,which trained the position of samples, gravel content, sand content, silt content, claycontent and clay mineral content. The results are consistent with those of thequantitative analysis. The self-learning algorithm is automatically determined andcalculated quantitatively. The impact of each factor on REEs and how each factorcontrols the ΣREE distribution is identified. Thus, environmental changes and thegeological evolution of the region can be inferred based on curve variation and the geological evolution of the region can be inferred based on curve variation and theactual situation. This method also provides useful theoretical guidance for the analysisof REE enrichment and dispersion.

Comprehensive Evaluation on the Regional Economy of Commodity Grain Base in Heilongjiang Province Based on Factor Analysis Method

Taking a total of 13 areas in Heilongjiang commodity grain base as the research objects,9 indices are selected,which are regional GDP(X1),per capita GDP(X2),total value of tertiary industry(X3),financial revenue(X4),urban fixed assets investment(X5),average salary(X6),gross industrial output value(X7),total output value of farming,forestry,husbandry and fishing(X8),and retail sales of social consumer goods(X9).Based on this,evaluation index system of regional economy is established.According to the 2006-2008 Heilongjiang Statistical Yearbook,average values within 3 years are used as analytical data.Factor Analysis Method is adopted to establish regression model and to carry out comprehensive analysis.Result shows that Heilongjiang commodity grain base has extremely uneven regional economic development in different areas.According to the score order and actual situation,the 13 areas are divided into 4 types.The first and second types are Harbin and Daqing,respectively.The third type is Qiqihaer,Suihua,Mudanjiang and Jiamusi.And the forth type is Jixi,Shuangyashan,Heihe,Yichun,Qitaihe,Hegang and Daxinganling.Suggestions for the development of these areas are put forward.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Comprehensive Productivity of Agriculture in Henan Province on the Basis of Grey Correlation

According to the data from Henan Statistical Yearbook from 2002 to 2008, from production capital, production conditions, labour inputs and financial support, this paper selects 11 variables influencing comprehensive productivity of agriculture in Henan Province. Through calculation and analysis of grey correlation of variables and comprehensive productivity of agriculture, this paper determines the impact of different variables on comprehensive productivity of agriculture. The results show that the agricultural capital has become the most important factor influencing comprehensive productivity of agriculture in Henan Province, while the impact of production conditions, labour inputs and financial support on comprehensive productivity of agriculture in Henan Province diminishes in turn. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainable development of comprehensive productivity of agriculture in Henan Province as follows: strengthen agricultural financial system building, and ensure agricultural production expenditure; scientifically arrange allocation of agricultural resources, and improve agricultural production conditions; carry out training of agricultural skills, and elevate the quality of agricultural labour forces; increase financial expenditure for agricultural production, and optimize financial expenditure structure.

Integrated interpretation of dual frequency induced polarization measurement based on wavelet analysis and metal factor methods

In mineral exploration, the apparent resistivity and apparent frequency （or apparent polarizability） parameters of induced polarization method are commonly utilized to describe the induced polarization anomaly. When the target geology structure is significantly complicated, these parameters would fail to reflect the nature of the anomaly source, and wrong conclusions may be obtained. A wavelet approach and a metal factor method were used to comprehensively interpret the induced polarization anomaly of complex geologic bodies in the Adi Bladia mine. Db5 wavelet basis was used to conduct two-scale decomposition and reconstruction, which effectively suppress the noise interference of greenschist facies regional metamorphism and magma intrusion, making energy concentrated and boundary problem unobservable. On the basis of that, the ore-induced anomaly was effectively extracted by the metal factor method.

Analysis of Critical Load of the Orthotropic Plate Structures

Advanced design based on the concept of orthotropic structure includes better use of materials, less weight compared to the equivalent isotropic construction and controlled effectively reserve resistance in all its segments. In this case a calculation of critical load is exposed using the FDM （Finite Difference Method） concept of thin plates subjected to complex loads due to forces in the middle-plane. Results of calculation model, discussed in this paper, are given in graphic form. Presented results should serve as an indicator of the expansion of theoretical base of similar models, which can be reasonably use by researchers and engineers in their practices, and by students for educational purposes.

A Review of Methods of Critical Discourse Analysis(second edition)

This article gives an overview of Methods of Critical Discourse Analysis(second edition),which respectively introduces six approaches to do critical discourse analysis.Personal comments and suggestions on the book are also presented.It is hoped that the article may help readers particularly who would want to grow and extent their interest in CDA better usher into the field.

A New Approach to the Determination of the Critical Slip Surfaces of Slopes

A new method for the determination of the critical slip surfaces of slopes is proposed in this paper. In this paper, the original critical slip field method is extended in terms of the total residual moment, values of residual work as well as the unbalanced thrust force at the exit point for a given non-circular slip surface. The most critical slip surface with the maximum representative value for a prescribed factor of safety will be optimized and located using the harmony search algorithm. The prescribed factor of safety is modified with certain tiny interval in order to find the critical slip surface where the maximum representative value is zero. The aforementioned approach to the location of the critical slip surface is greatly different from the traditional limit equilibrium procedure. Three typical soil slopes are evaluated by use of the proposed method, and the comparisons with the classical approaches have illustrated the applicability of the proposed method.

Multi-factor sensitivity analysis on the stability of submarine hydrate-bearing slope

There are many factors affecting the instability of the submarine hydrate-bearing slope (SHBS),and the interaction with hydrate is very complicated.In this paper,the mechanical mechanism of the static liquefaction and instability of submarine slope caused by the dissociation of natural gas hydrate (NGH) resulting in the rapid increase of pore pressure of gas hydrate-bearing sediments (GHBS) and the decrease of effective stress are analyzed based on the time series and type of SHBS.Then,taking the typical submarine slope in the northern South China Sea as an example,four important factors affecting the stability of SHBS are selected,such as the degree of hydrate dissociation,the depth of hydrate burial,the thickness of hydrate,and the depth of seawater.According to the principle of orthogonal method,25 orthogonal test schemes with 4 factors and 5 levels are designed and the safety factors of submarine slope stability of each scheme are calculated by using the strength reduction finite element method.By means of the orthogonal design range analysis and the variance analysis,sensitivity of influential factors on stability of SHBS are obtained.The results show that the degree of hydrate dissociation is the most sensitive,followed by hydrate burial depth,the thickness of hydrate and the depth of seawater.Finally,the concept of gas hydrate critical burial depth is put forward according to the influence law of gas hydrate burial depth,and the numerical simulation for specific submarine slope is carried out,which indicates the existence of critical burial depth.

Rutting influencing factors and prediction model for asphalt pavements based on the factor analysis method

To clarify the importance of various influencing factors on asphalt pavement rutting deformation and determine a screening method of model indicators,the data of the RIOHTrack full-scale track were examined using the factor analysis method(FAM).Taking the standard test pavement structure of RIOHTrack as an example,four rutting influencing factors from different aspects were determined through statistical analysis.Furthermore,the common influencing factors among the rutting influencing factors were studied based on FAM.Results show that the common factor can well characterize accumulative ESALs,center-point deflection,and temperature,besides humidity,which indicates that these three influencing factors can have an important impact on rutting.Moreover,an empirical rutting prediction model was established based on the selected influencing factors,which proved to exhibit high prediction accuracy.These analysis results demonstrate that the FAM is an effective screening method for rutting prediction model indicators,which provides a reference for the selection of independent model indicators in other rutting prediction model research when used in other areas and is of great significance for the prediction and control of rutting distress.

Buckling analysis of super-long rock-socketed filling piles in soft soil area by element free Galerkin method

In order to discuss the buckling stability of super-long rock-socketed filling piles widely used in bridge engineering in soft soil area such as Dongting Lake, the second stability type was adopted instead of traditional first type, and a newly invented numerical analysis method, i.e. the element-free Galerkin method (EFGM), was introduced to consider the non-concordant deformation and nonlinearity of the pile-soil interface. Then, based on the nonlinear elastic-ideal plastic pile-soil interface model, a nonlinear iterative algorithm was given to analyze the pile-soil interaction, and a program for buckling analysis of piles by the EFGM (PBAP-EFGM) and arc length method was worked out as well. The application results in an engineering example show that, the shape of pile top load-settlement curve obtained by the program agrees well with the measured one, of which the difference may be caused mainly by those uncertain factors such as possible initial defects of pile shaft and the eccentric loading during the test process. However, the calculated critical load is very close with the measured ultimate load of the test pile, and the corresponding relative error is only 5.6%, far better than the calculated values by linear and nonlinear incremental buckling analysis (with a greater relative error of 37.0% and 15.4% respectively), which also verifies the rationality and feasibility of the present method.

Application of dynamic analysis of strength reduction in the slope engineering under earthquake

At present,the methods of analyzing the stability of slope under earthquake are not accurate and reasonable because of some limitations. Based on the real dynamic tensile-shear failure mechanism of slope,the paper proposes dynamic analysis of strength reduction FEM (finite element method) and takes the reduction of shear strength parameters and tensile strength parameters into consideration. And it comprehensively takes the transfixion of the failure surface,the non-convergence of calculation and mutation of displacement as the criterion of dynamic instability and failure of the slope. The strength reduction factor under limit state is regarded as the dynamic safety factor of the slope under earthquake effect and its advantages are introduced. Finally,the method is applied in the seismic design of anchors supporting and anti-slide pile supporting of the slope. Calculation examples show that the application of dynamic analysis of strength reduction is feasible in the seismic design of slope engineering,which can consider dynamic interaction of supporting structure and rock-soil mass. Owing to its preciseness and great advantages,it is a new method in the seismic design of slope supporting.

Finite element analysis of slope stability by expanding the mobilized principal stress Mohr's circles-Development, encoding and validation

In recent years,finite element analysis is increasingly being proposed in slope stability problems as a competitive method to traditional limit equilibrium methods(LEMs)which are known for their inherent deficiencies.However,the application of finite element method(FEM)to slope stability as a strength reduction method(SRM)or as finite element limit analysis(FELA)is not always a success for the drawbacks that characterize both methods.To increase the performance of finite element analysis in this problem,a new approach is proposed in this paper.It consists in gradually expanding the mobilized stress Mohr’s circles until the soil failure occurs according to a prescribed non-convergence criterion.The present approach called stress deviator increasing method(SDIM)is considered rigorous for three main reasons.Firstly,it preserves the definition of the factor of safety(FOS)as the ratio of soil shear strength to the mobilized shear stress.Secondly,it maintains the progressive development of shear stress resulting from the increase in the principal stress deviator on the same plane,on which the shear strength takes place.Thirdly,by introducing the concept of equivalent stress loading,the resulting trial stresses are checked against the violation of the actual yield criterion formed with the real strength parameters rather than those reduced by a trial factor.The new numerical procedure was encoded in a Fortran computer code called S^(4)DINA and verified by several examples.Comparisons with other numerical methods such as the SRM,gravity increasing method(GIM)or even FELA by assessing both the FOS and contours of equivalent plastic strains showed promising results.

An Analysis of Water Environment Factors and an Evaluation of Water Quantity of Liangzi Lake

The experiments of single factor evaluation method, principal component analysis and voronoi area weighting factor method on the sample data of Liangzi Lake in October 2012 combined with the national surface water environment quality standards can get the map of comprehensive water quality distribution by Kriging interpolation. The analysis shows, the grades of comprehensive water quality gained by three methods are all only class III or class IV, and the quality of water is different from east and west that the water quality of east is better. However, the percent of IV class water is higher in the result of single factor evaluation method means class IV is the main grade of water quality. The result of principal component analysis shows the percent of class Ⅲ water is higher than other classes. The result of voronoi area weighting factor method shows the percent of IV class is higher than other classes. CODMn is the main factor that influences the method of singal factor evaluation and reduces the grade of water quality overall. The effect of single factor is reduced by principal component analysis, and the analysis on water quality is more accurate. The voronoi area weighing factor method reduces the effect of single factor and extends the content, can make a comprehensive evaluation on water quality.

Seismic displacement demand prediction in non-linear domain: Optimization of the N2 method

In Europe, computation of displacement demand for seismic assessment of existing buildings is essentially based on a simplified formulation of the N2 method as prescribed by Eurocode 8(EC8). However, a lack of accuracy of the N2 method in certain conditions has been pointed out by several studies. This paper addresses the assessment of effectiveness of the N2 method in seismic displacement demand determination in non-linear domain. The objective of this work is to investigate the accuracy of the N2 method through comparison with displacement demands computed using non-linear timehistory analysis(NLTHA). Results show that the original N2 method may lead to overestimation or underestimation of displacement demand predictions. This may affect results of mechanical model-based assessment of seismic vulnerability at an urban scale. Hence, the second part of this paper addresses an improvement of the N2 method formula by empirical evaluation of NLTHA results based on EC8 ground-classes. This task is formulated as a mathematical programming problem in which coefficients are obtained by minimizing the overall discrepancy between NLTHA and modified formula results. Various settings of the mathematical programming problem have been solved using a global optimization metaheuristic. An extensive comparison between the original N2 method formulation and optimized formulae highlights benefits of the strategy.

A Research on Competitiveness of Guangxi City——Based on System Clustering Method and Principal Component Analysis Method

A total of 10 indices of regional economic development in Guangxi are selected.According to the relevant economic data,regional economic development in Guangxi is analyzed by using System Clustering Method and Principal Component Analysis Method.Result shows that System Clustering Method and Principal Component Analysis Method have revealed similar results analysis of economic development level.Overall economic strength of Guangxi is weak and Nanning has relatively high scores of factors due to its advantage of the political,economic and cultural center.Comprehensive scores of other regions are all lower than 1,which has big gap with the development of Nanning.Overall development strategy points out that Guangxi should accelerate the construction of the Ring Northern Bay Economic Zone,create a strong logistics system having strategic significance to national development,use the unique location advantage and rely on the modern transportation system to establish a logistics center and business center connecting the hinterland and the Asean Market.Based on the problems of unbalanced regional economic development in Guangxi,we should speed up the development of service industry in Nanning,construct the circular economy system of industrial city,and accelerate the industrialization process of tourism city in order to realize balanced development of regional economy in Guangxi,China.

A Dynamical Model to Analyze the Influence of Sliding Friction on Motion on a Curve—An Analytical Method

To demonstrate the influence of sliding friction of motion on a curve, a circular path is considered for simplicity on which a person slides from the highest point to the lowest point. A slide which represents a quadrant of radius 5 m and a person of mass 60 kg are considered for comparison in this paper. A Differential equation for motion considering the fact that the normal force depends both on the sin component of weight and also on the tangential velocity, is established and is solved using integrating factor method, and the motion is analysed for different surface roughness of the slide and is compared using superimposed graphs, also the limiting value of friction coefficient at which the person just exits the slide is determined. The correction factor for exit velocity with friction as compared with the exit velocity for zero friction is determined. The fraction of energy lost to friction at the exit is evaluated. The Variation of normal force with the position of the person on the slide is plotted for different surface roughness of the slide, and the position on the slide where the normal force or the force experienced by the person is maximum, is determined and hence its maximum value is evaluated for different surface roughness. For simplicity, a point contact between the body and the slide is considered.