lraclng China's Low Carbon Development Path to 2050:tnergy nemand analysis and carbon emissions scenarios

Global warming threatens the lives and development of human beings and has become one of the major challenges tohumanity in the 21st century.With China’s continuous economic strengthening and closer contact with the world economy,prospects of China’s energy demands,energy supply roadmap and related carbon emissions have become the focus ofvarious organizations.By applying a scenario analysis,this report analyzes and forecasts China’s energy demands andcarbon emissions trends over the coming thirty to fifty years.Results indicate that under certain conditions,it will bepossible for China to take on a low carbon development path with Chinese characteristics.However,China needs overalladjustments in policy,institutions,structure,technology as well as strong support from international economic andpolitical environments.

Validation and Scenario Analysis of a Soil Organic Carbon Model

A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general a-greed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291* * * (n= 48) and 0.6431* * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg, 0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.

Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis

Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.

Scenario analysis for the energy demand and carbon emissions in low carbon city

This paper takes the climate change and low carbon economy development as the study background, based on the analysis of energy demand and carbon emissions status, which is aimed to provide the low carbon development path in Chinese cities. The method of scenario analysis can be used to predict long-term strategy for the uncertainty future development, and it was introduced to the field of social forecasting and public policy research, such as the environmental strategic planning, policy analysis, and support of decision in resource management, which can be used to explore the possible development trend and target of the results from the macro perspective. Scenario analysis has been gradually applied to the study area on low carbon economy, energy forecasting and other fields in recent years, and there have been many research results in different aspects. This paper takes the scenario analysis as basic study theory, spreading out the present situation of its application in low carbon city and some issues that need further study. As a tool for predicting the future development in low carbon city, the method of scenario analysis has been providing a powerful reference for policies and their executants.

Scenario analysis on abating industrial process greenhouse gas emissions from adipic acid production in China

Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate greenhouse gas control roadmaps.The forecasting method of this paper is consistent with the published national inventory in terms of caliber.Based on the N_2 O abatement technical parameters of adipic acid and the production trend,this paper combines the scenario analysis and provides a measurement of comprehensive N_2 O abatement effect of the entire industry in China.Four future scenarios are assumed.The baseline scenario(BAUS) is a frozen scenario.Three emission abatement scenarios(ANAS,SNAS,and ENAS) are assumed under different strength of abatement driving parameters.The results show that China's adipic acid production process can achieve increasingly significant N_2 O emission abatement effects.Compared to the baseline scenario,by 2030,the N_2 O emission abatements of the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 207-399 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 32.5%-62.6%.By 2050,the N_2 O emission abatements for the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 387-540 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 71.4%-99.6%.

The cause of human fatigue and scenario analysisin the process of marine transportation

The framework of fatigue factors is constructed to reduce the number of maritime accidents caused by human fatigue.Based on the study of maritime human fatigue,by screening and classifying it,there are 15 fatigue factors,which can be classified into 4 types:sleep,rest and rhythm;work factors;personal conditions;environmental factors.These factors are regarded as the variables for constructing scenarios.The importance,uncertainty,influence and dependence of variables and variable pairs were assessed by using morphological analysis,quantitative scales and correlation matrices.Ship movement and workload are selected as the two key variables,which are regarded as the axes of generating scenarios.One of the scenarios is selected as the typical scenario to illustrate the relationship between the causes of fatigue.Then,the analysis framework is constructed according to the fatigue factors relationship,and several potential solutions are proposed,which include the development of foresighted and flexible work plans,and the application of wearable facilities to improve monitoring and assessment systems.The proposed framework lays a theoretical foundation for studying maritime human fatigue,and scenario analysis can provide an effective strategy for reducing crews'fatigue.

Study on the Traffic Energy System Model in Urumqi Based on Scenario Analysis Methods

In this study, a traffic energy system model is developed to optimize the traffic system cost of Urumqi, considering energy consumption, pollution emission and travel time. Meanwhile, scenario analysis method is proposed to solve the problem of the extreme weather of traffic, and three scenarios (i.e. 10%, 20% and 30%) of reductions of traffic flow quantity and pollutant emission are examined. The results demonstrate that the medium-type coach will be the promising selection under different scenarios especially in the extreme conditions and the traffic flow reduction scenarios are not the better option for the decision owing to the same cost under the different reduction levels. Moreover, encouraging the medium-type coach traveling and restricting the small vehicle driving would be attractive alternatives for the extreme situation. The proposed model would provide reasonable references for decision makers.

The Environmental Impacts and Economic Benefits on Comprehensively Promoting Alternative Fuel Buses in China: Life-Cycle and Scenario Analysis Based on LEAP Model

With the continuous development of urban public transportation, the harmful GHG emissions and pollutants generated by itself and the consequent issues such as the losses of residents’ health, economic value and residents’ welfare have become the focus of social attention. In order to study the impacts of promoting new energy vehicles on public transportation pollution mitigation and residents’ health benefits, this paper adopts the LEAP model to build some scenarios that fulfill different development needs to quantitatively analyze the ownership of new energy buses, the reduction of pollutants and the losses of residents’ health welfare. It is concluded that promoting new energy buses comprehensively can significantly reduce the emissions of atmospheric pollutants and the economic losses of residents’ health, but cannot fully realize the targets of greenhouse gas reduction under Life Cycle Analysis.

3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

The Application of Scenario Analysis in the Overall Planning of Land Use:A Case Study of Shangluo City in Shaanxi Province

The overall planning of land use is a complex process of joint action of social system, natural and economic conditions. On the basis of summarizing the existing researches, we select Shaanxi's Shangluo City, located in the Qinba mountainous area as the study object, to expound the concept and steps of scenario analysis based on land use change data, under the guidance of ecological safety and sustainable development theory. We design four different scenarios of land use planning program in Shangluo City during the period 2006-2020, and use grey linear programming model to analyze each scenario. The results show that the scenario analysis is feasible in the adjustment of land use structure in Shangluo City; operable in the determining of land use planning program on a macro-municipal scale.

Scenario analysis of low carbon development in Tianjin, China

Low-carbon economic development has become a.fundamental approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of North China. Tianjin＇s energy demand and CO2 emissions are mushrooming, with per capita CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion exceeding 20 t in 2020, which much exceeds current level of USA. In the background of global responding to climate change, China will likely be requested to commit peaking its GHG emissions during 2020-2030, which will inevitable reduce the room of development in Tianjin enormously. Tianjin should make deployment ahead, realizing win-win of addressing climate change and sustainable development, with low-carbon economic development as important strategic mission. First of all, Tianjin should devote more efforts to reducing energy intensity and realizing relative emission reduction. Scenario analysis shows that Tianjin＇s future CO2 emissions will continue to increase rapidly, but they can be significantly reduced by taking measures. Second, Tianjin should get ready for achieving absolute reduction of CO2 emissions as soon as possible, preparing system, technology and talent in advance, making great efforts to establish institutional meehanisms conducive to low-carbon development from now on. starting from energy conservation and emission reduction, actively carrying out low-carbon technology research and development, vigorously developing the tertiary industry with low emissions, developing new and renewable energy resources, actively promote low-carbon consumption.

Analysis on Ecological Risk in Northwest China

Based on scenario analysis method, assuming different economic develop- ment policies, and AHP method, the ecological indicators and risk prediction models were established. The trends of ecological risk in the northwest region were ana- lyzed. The results showed that： in the northwest, the potential ecological risks of the population economy, water resources, and land resources and natural disasters still existed. However, the environment and respond to ecological risks were decreasing. Therefore, a regional balanced development measures had been taken to curb the western trend of ecological deterioration. So that socio-economic development, re- sources, environment, and economy were expected to a virtuous cycle, and the eco- logical risks would be reduced. This study provides the basis for land and water use planning and environmental protection of government decision-making and management.

Optimal Operation Strategy Analysis with Scenario Generation Method Based on Principal Component Analysis,Density Canopy,and K-medoids for Integrated Energy Systems

The operation of integrated energy systems(IESs)is confronted with great challenges for increasing penetration rate of renewable energy and growing complexity of energy forms.Scenario generation is one of ordinary methods to alleviate the system uncertainties by extracting several typical scenarios to represent the original high-dimensional data.This paper proposes a novel representative scenario generation method based on the feature extraction of panel data.The original high-dimensional data are represented by an aggregated indicator matrix using principal component analysis to preserve temporal variation.Then,the aggregated indicator matrix is clustered by an algorithm combining density canopy and K-medoids.Together with the proposed scenario generation method,an optimal operation model of IES is established,where the objective is to minimize the annual operation costs considering carbon trading cost.Finally,case studies based on the data of Aachen,Germany in 2019 are performed.The results indicate that the adjusted rand index(ARI)and silhouette coefficient(SC)of the proposed method are 0.6153 and 0.6770,respectively,both higher than the traditional methods,namely K-medoids,K-means++,and density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise(DBSCAN),which means the proposed method has better accuracy.The error between optimal operation results of the IES obtained by the proposed method and all-year time series benchmark value is 0.1%,while the calculation time is reduced from 11029 s to 188 s,which verifies that the proposed method can be used to optimize operation strategy of IES with high efficiency without loss of accuracy.

Effect analysis of carbon trading on Economy-Energy-Environment system and calculation of reasonable carbon price intervals

This paper constructs a 4-lier computable general equilibrium model which includes such modules as modeling carbon emission constraints and carbon trading(CT),and incorporates the cost of carbon emissions into constant elasticity of substitute production function.Under scenario settings under different carbon abatement targets,based on 2007 national social accounting matrix and related statistical data about energy consumption and carbon emission,effects on economic outputs,energy consumption,and carbon abatement are estimated and analyzed at both macro and sector level.By calculating selected novel indicators that compromise between macroeconomic opportunity cost and achievable carbon abatement,reasonable carbon price intervals are given for enhancing the robustness and liquidity of carbon market.Further,by decomposition and share-weighted methods,expected carbon abatement and energy price are measured and analyzed in details.Some results are meaningful for fundamental design of the future carbon market.Given constant energy utilization and carbon abatement technologies at the macro level,the higher the carbon price the more actual carbon abatement;the more gross domestic product loss,the less energy consumption.Accwding to the overall situation estimated for 2007 in China,the advice given is to introduce a carbon abatement target rate(R_c)of-10%,which is helpful to make carbon market stable against unexpected carbon price shocks between[6.9,35]/tC with less economic loss.According to Kaya decomposition,after introduction of carbon pricing,carbon abatement is mainly contributed by the effects of energy intensity(EI)and technical progress.Further,CT may help reduce energy consumption and induce transformation to a low-carbon energy structure.At the sector level,the introduction of CT could induce economic recession in all sectors,especially energy.However,the overall economic structure remains unchanged to some extent.CT will help reduce energy consumption in all sectors,especially energy.Overall utilization costs of the energy composite can be divided in two,market price and carbonrelated costs.Carbon-related costs mainly contribute to variation in the utilization cos of the energy composite;carbon pricing may help non-energy sectors achieve sufficient carbon abatement by pushing up energy utilization cost.However,despite achievable carbon abatement by the energy sector being relatively high,induced by carbon pricing,there is still significant potential for other incentive policies to stimulate further abatement,such as energy resources taxation and transportation fuel taxation,especially in the sectors of coal and transportation.Finally,some advice is proposed in regard to policy decisions and further research.

Carbon emission scenarios of China's power sector:Impact of controlling measures and carbon pricing mechanism

The study constructs a low-carbon path analysis model of China's power sector based on TIMES model and presents a comparative analysis of carbon emissions under Reference,Low-Carbon and Enhanced Low-Carbon scenarios,and the main difference of the three scenarios is manifested by policy selection and policy strength.The conclusions are drawn as follows:(1)The peak of carbon emission in China's power sector will range from 4.0 GtCO2 to 4.8 GtCO2,which implies an increment of 0.5e1.3 billion or 14%e35%from the 2015 levels.(2)Introducing carbon price is an effective way to inhibit coal power and promote non-fossil fuels and Carbon Capture,Utilization and Storage applications(CCUS).The carbon emission reduction effects will gradually increase with carbon price.When the carbon price attains to CN￥150 t
1CO2,the CO2 emission can decrease by 36%than that without carbon price.(3)CCUS is one of important contributing factor to reduce CO2 emission in power sector.Generally speaking,the development of non-fossil fuels and energy efficiency improvement are two main drivers for carbon mitigation,but once the carbon price reaches up to CN￥106 t
1CO2,the CCUS will be required to equip with thermal power units and its contribution on carbon emission reduction will remarkably increase.When carbon price increases to CN￥150 t
1CO2 in 2050,the application of CCUS will account for 44%of total emission reduction.(4)In the scenario with carbon price of CN￥150 t
1CO2,power sector would be decarbonized significantly,and the CO2 intensity will be 0.22 kgCO2(kW h)
1,but power sector is far from the goal that achieving net zero emission.In order to realize the long-term low greenhouse gas emission development goal that proposed by the Paris Agreement,more efforts are needed to be put to further reduce the carbon emission reduction of power sector.Based on the above scenario analysis,the study proposes four recommendations on the low-carbon development of China's power sector:(1)improve the energy efficiency proactively and optimize the energy structure of power sector gradually;(2)promote the low-carbon transition of power sector by using market-based mechanism like carbon emission trading scheme to internalize the external cost of carbon emission;(3)give more emphasis on and support to the CCUS application in power sector.

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND SCENARIOS OF URBANIZATION IN ARID AREA——A Case Study in Wuwei City of Gansu Province

Based on data of questionnaire and field survey and two developing models of Business As Usual (BAU) and the Intensive Urbanization (IU), this article, taking Wuwei City, a medium size city and typical oasis arid area in Gansu Province with very vulnerable and sensitive natural environment but long history of oasis economy, as an example, evaluated the sustainability of its environment and analyzed the scenarios of Wuwei’s household energy consumption, waste discharge in transportation industry, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, by the integration of the systematical dynamics model Stella and Polestar language to simulate the future development of the research area. The results showed that, first, the developing model of IU was propitious to Wuwei City named for oasis economy and vulnerable natural environment. The strategy of "Intensive Urbanization" can change the structure of energy utilization, and improve the efficiency of energy utilization. Second, the proportion of domestic energy consumption will decrease with industrialization and economic development, while that of tertiary industry, secondary industry and transportation will gradually grow up according to strategy of "Intensive Urbanization". Third, the Wuwei City is facing a severe eco-environmental crisis under the conventional patterns of development and a better future under a sustainable urbanization scenario, in the next 10 to 20 years. The different developing trends were clarified and the relative countermeasures were put forward for the policy makers according to the driving forces.

Technical Analysis of Energy Saving and Emission Reducing in China's Cement Industry Based on LEAP Model

[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the ability to save energy and reduce CO2 emission in China＇s cement industry. [Method] Based on long-term energy alternative planning system software （LEAP）, ＂LEAP of China＇s cement industry＂ model was established to simulate energy conservation and emission reduction in China＇s cement industry from 2010 to 2040 in different technologic situations. E ResultJ To save ener- gy and reduce CO2 emissions, new dry process kiln has priority over other technologies or measures, followed by equipment enlargement, mechani- cal shaft kiln, power generation system based on waste heat, as well as high-efficiency and energy-saving grinding technology, and new prepara- tion technology. If all the advanced technologies and measures are adopted, energy consumption and C02 emissions can be reduced by about 40.76% and 42.97% respectively. [ Condusion] LEAP of model is suitable for analyzing energy saving and emission reducing in China＇s cement industry and other industrial fields.

An integrated analysis approach to LUCC at regional scale:A case study in the Ganzhou District of Zhangye City,China

Land use/cover change （LUCC） models are helpful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes of land use changes, assessing ecological impacts of land use change and decision-making for land use planning. However, no single model is able to capture all the essential key processes to explore land use change at different spatial-temporal scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and macro-ecological impacts. Taken Ganzhou District as a case study, this paper describes an integrated analysis （IA） ap- proach by combining with system dynamics （SD） model, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model and landscape indices method to analyze land use dynamics at different spatial-temporal scales. The SD model was used to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during 2000-2035. The LUCC process was simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply by using the CLUE-S model, and Kappa values of the map simulation are 0.86 and 0.81 in 2000 and 2005, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the macro-ecological effect of LUCC and optimized sce- nario managements of land use by using landscape indices method. The IA approach could be used for better understanding the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and management, and the simulation results also could be used as a source data for scenario analysis of different hydrological and ecological processes based on different un- derlying surface of LUCC.

Statistical Safety Analysis of Maintenance Management Process of Excavator Units

Within this paper, the process of statistical safety analysis has been presented, which involves the following steps： formulation of basic principles of statistical safety analysis, initial events analysis, accident sceneries progress analysis, risk calculation, and risk calculation results analysis. On this basis, it has been concluded that the bucket wheel excavator SRs 1200×24/4×0（400 kW）＋VR safety criteria is the mechanism for the hoist of rotor＇s arrow failure modes, because in that case whole bucket wheel excavator failure would necessarily happen （excavator falling down on counterweight）. Therefore, excavator units statistical safety analysis is accomplished preventively to obtain its effective maintenance management.

Application of vulnerability analysis in structural capacity assessment and enhancement

This paper presents a structural vulnerability analysis method based on the theory of plastic limit analysis.By applying the mechanism generation method,the ultimate loading factor and the corresponding failure mode of a structural system can be obtained.The ultimate loading factor was then used to measure the performance of a structural system.The variation of this factor to different damage scenarios due to vehicle collision was investigated.To illustrate the proposed method,two cases study on statically determinate and statically indeterminate truss bridge were performed.The results of the case study showed that the susceptibility of structure performance to local damage scenarios not only depends on the location but also the severity of the damage scenarios.Based on this analysis,structural capacity can be evaluated and structural management and maintenance strategy can be made more efficiently.