The effect of non-recurring items on analysts' earnings forecasts

This article discusses the effects of non-recurring profits and losses on statement users' decision-making processes from the perspective of securities analysts. We examine the relationship between analysts' forecast revisions and firms' non-recurring earnings. We find that 1) non-recurring gains and losses can influence analysts' earnings forecast revision; 2) compared with nonrecurring items resulting from policy changes, analysts are more concerned about those attributed to changes in business scope; 3) if listed companies use non-recurring items to turn losses into gains during earnings management,it will weaken the effects of non-recurring items on analysts' earnings forecast revision. The results suggest that non-recurring items that result from changes in business scope incorporate information that users need for the future operation of the business. This article verifies the information relevance of nonrecurring items and provides evidence for the necessity of non-recurring item disclosure.

Earnings disaggregation and analysts＇ forecasts

Accounting concepts dictate that separately disclosed components should contain separate useful information. This paper examines the relations between income statement components and analysts＇ earnings forecasts and forecast errors. Regressions explaining earnings forecasts using earnings components provide a better fit than regression using just aggregate income to explain forecasts. We interpret this as consistent with the hypothesis that analysts use incremental information in components not available in aggregate income. However, additional tests based on predictability of forecast errors indicate that analysts do not incorporate all information available in components into earnings forecasts. In addition, this inefficiency appears to increase at longer forecast horizons.

Does an abnormal change in deferred tax assets interfere with analysts' earnings forecasts?

In 2007,China adopted the single balance sheet liability method for tax accounting,but its shortcomings have emerged.I sample A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018 to study whether an abnormal change in deferred tax assets interferes with analysts’earnings forecasts and find that an abnormal change in deferred tax assets increases the error and divergence of these forecasts.Compared with a negative abnormal change in deferred tax assets,a positive abnormal change has a greater impact on earnings forecasts.Additionally,the level of corporate governance,audit quality and analysts’professional ability have moderating effects on the correlation between an abnormal change in deferred tax assets and earnings forecasts.However,an abnormal change in deferred tax liabilities does not have a significant impact on that correlation.

Improvements onthe Earnings Forecast Model——Based on Correlation between Financial Ratio, Auditor Opinion and Future Earnings

This paper aims to find evidence for the improvements on the present earnings forecast models through analyzing the correlation among financial ratios, auditor opinion of listed companies and their future earnings. This paper uses two statistical regression methods including Logistic model and Linear model to examine the inner interaction between financial ratios and future earnings from qualitative and quantitative perspectives respectively. Empirical tests find that financial ratios, especially ROE, can help to predict future earnings. Then we add auditor opinion variable into Logistic model to test whether going concern opinion in the auditor reports can be helpful for earnings forecast. Result shows the degree of optimistic statement of going concern opinion is significantly correlated with future earnings but with the disturbance of earnings management.

The effect of earnings forecast precision on firm value and insider trading under voluntary disclosure in Taiwan

Taiwan changed its earnings forecast policy from mandatory to voluntary disclosure in 2005. In this study, the inferences of voluntary earnings forecast are examined based on forecasts issued by listed firms. This study suspects that insiders have a temptation to strategically manipulate financial forecast information to influence markets and thus receive extra rents. Under the new earnings forecast disclosure policy, the number of disclosing firm decreases but the precision of earnings forecast increases. The empirical result from dynamic panel data evidences the forecast error of voluntary disclosure may negatively impact firm values. Furthermore, there is a positive relationship between insiders＇ trading profit and manipulation of earnings forecasts. As volatility in insider manipulation increases, it is difficult for the investors to predict the real intention of insiders, and insiders may achieve greater benefits from trading. This study also observes that many listed companies hold investor conferences to provide earnings guidance in Taiwan. The reason may be that investor conference is more flexible and has less forecast error cost than the formal financial forecast. This study provides important insights into earnings forecast policy in emerging markets. The competent authority should improve corporate governance and develop monitoring functions to abate forecast manipulation.

Theoretical explanations to security analysts＇ forecast bias

As the representative of mature investors, security analysts＇ recommendations are guidance for most investors, However, a great deal of studies nearly draws the consistent conclusion, i.e. they are not as smart as we imagine, or the market doesn＇t trust their recommendations so much. The existence of optimistic bias in their recommendations has been supported by empirical data widely. Hence these make many papers to explore the reasons and try to give theoretical explanations. Based on prior researches, this paper mainly compares two theoretical models both based on mathematical methods.

The Efficiency of Markets in Response to Earnings Forecasts: The Case of China

This paper investigates the semi-strong form of efficiency of Chinese stock markets in response to earnings forecast announcement by employing the methodology of event study. The sample period is from January 2009 to January 2018, in total 564 event were examined. The reaction of markets to different types of new announcement is investigated and presented separately. Firstly, examination of positive and negative earnings forecast report shows that information shock brings a significant positive and negative returns during the event window. In addition, analysis of different sub-windows showed prices adjust to news quickly and effectively. However, no news announcements bring no significant shock to market, prices are not impacted by slight change forecasts. In general, empirical results provided evidences of semi-strong market efficiency. Earnings forecast announcements possess huge impact on market prices, therefore participants can make abnormal profit if they act on the information very quickly. However, beyond event window information becomes ineffective and does not possess any kind of content to make above market returns .

Construction Project Forecasting ＂Practical Use of EV Metrics＂

During this professional research--Construction Project Forecasting （Practical Use of EV Metrics）, which criticize earned value management as a most distinguished methodology for forecasting the project expected end dates and expecting budget at completion, the field for the research is construction field and specially the projects which content different phases without repetitive tasks. Forecasting for construction project is a complicated process need more than applying one equation only. As assuming that, project performance during finishing stage will be similar to project performance during concrete stage is totally wrong. The case study techniques have been used to prove an important idea and also to implement a suggested protocol which actually implemented and tested and it should be considered as a research finding. The project used in this case study is ＂Hurgadah Intemational Airport--New Terminal Building＂, while executing this complex construction projects with different stages the forecasting for the project end date and final end budget were completely not realistic. The above leads to questioning the next： ＂Is it true that using the earned value indexes for forecasting construction projects end date and final budget is the right way？ And if not, what is the right process that should be used in order to reach acceptable forecasting method？＂ We implement the EV measurements by the normal technique and also implement in the same month the suggested protocol for forecasting, comparing the results proof the effectiveness of the suggested protocol. The findings prove that, the construction projects need special treatment when use the EVM for forecasting. The earned value indexes created to serve the projects which have repeated tasks or can say which got one stage only, like information technology （IT） projects as those projects depending on manpower productivity and also based on few different qualifications. On such type of projects the earned value forecasting calculation is perfectly used.

企业竞争战略与管理层策略性业绩:基于管理层业绩预告的分析

从战略管理理论出发研究竞争战略对管理层盈利预测策略的影响。结果表明,采取差异化战略的企业更可能自愿披露盈利预测信息,然而预测偏差较大并更倾向于披露悲观消息。机制检验表明经营风险在差异化战略影响盈利预测中起中介作用。进一步研究发现,在国有企业和金融化程度较强的样本中,差异化竞争战略和盈利预测偏差的关系被显著弱化。

实体企业脱实向虚与分析师盈余预测质量——雾里看花还是甄别有道?

当前,实体经济“脱实向虚”倾向较为明显,立足于监管部门日益重视分析师研报质量的现实背景,选取2007—2019年间我国非金融企业作为研究样本,探究实体企业脱实向虚是否以及如何影响分析师盈余预测质量。研究表明:实体企业脱实向虚显著降低了分析师盈余预测质量;机制检验发现,企业脱实向虚通过降低企业信息透明度进而降低了分析师盈余预测质量;进一步研究表明,良好的公司治理和高质量的外部独立审计能削弱企业脱实向虚对分析师盈余预测质量的负面影响,而机构投资者持股则会强化其负面效应。研究从资本市场信息中介视角丰富了企业脱实向虚的经济后果,对政府监管部门引导企业回归主业及提高资本市场的信息效率具有一定启示作用。

线上销售能否改善资本市场信息环境——基于分析师盈余预测的证据

基于2015—2019年上市公司通过互联网平台进行线上销售的独特数据,本文研究了线上销售对分析师盈余预测的影响。研究发现:(1)上市公司进行线上销售显著降低了分析师盈余预测误差和分歧度,提升了分析师盈余预测质量,且上述结果在仅保留线上销售行业和PSM匹配后的样本、采用Heckman两阶段模型等方式缓解内生性问题后仍然成立;(2)线上销售对分析师盈余预测质量的提升作用在分析师公开获取信息渠道较少、获取信息成本较高时更为显著;(3)机制检验发现,线上销售可以通过降低盈余波动,或者抑制盈余管理以改善公司盈余信息质量,进而降低分析师盈余预测误差和分歧度。研究结果表明,线上销售不仅增加了分析师获取公司特质信息的来源,而且一定程度上改善了盈余信息质量,有助于分析师发挥资本市场信息中介的重要作用,提高资本市场效率。

MD&A纵向文本相似度与分析师盈余预测准确性

注册制下,信息的真实、准确、完整是投资者合理判断证券价值的关键,分析师在信息作用于股价这一过程中扮演着重要的信息中介角色,而年报所披露的信息对分析师盈余预测至关重要。以2012—2021年沪深A股上市公司为样本,探究了管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)纵向文本相似度对分析师盈余预测准确性的影响。研究发现,MD&A纵向文本相似度越高,分析师盈余预测准确性越低,证实了“增量信息”假说。异质性分析表明,这种影响显著存在于规模小、高科技行业、媒体关注度低的公司中,并且公司位于市场化程度低省份时受此影响更大。进一步研究发现,MD&A纵向文本相似度越高,分析师盈余预测的正向偏差越大。此外,分析师盈余预测准确性的下降会进一步降低资本市场的信息效率。因此,上市公司应重视文本信息披露,避免披露内容样板化;分析师和监管部门应加强对上市公司文本信息披露的监督,优化资本市场信息环境。

分行业信息披露能提高业绩预告质量吗?——基于准自然实验的证据

分行业信息披露是注册制下高质量监管的重要内容。本文基于沪深交易所分批次颁布行业信息披露指引这一准自然实验构建双重差分模型,实证分析了行业信息披露义务是否改变了公司的策略性信息披露行为。研究发现,要求上市公司披露行业经营性信息能够提高管理层业绩预告质量,且信息透明度、分析师关注度、法制环境、业绩预告属性和经营风险在分行业信息披露对业绩预告质量的影响中发挥着调节作用。会计稳健性和会计信息可比性是潜在机制。本研究有助于理解以行业为属性的信息披露政策对上市公司业绩预告披露行为的影响,同时对完善我国业绩预告制度也有一定的启发。

一种基于联邦学习的供应链需求预测方法

供应链需求预测是供应链管理的核心环节,直接影响着供应链的运作效率和成本控制。然而,在不确定的市场环境下,如何提高需求预测准确性一直是供应链管理的难题。尤其是在供应链中,各个企业出于保护自身利益和隐私的考虑,不愿意与其他企业共享自己的需求数据,导致了传统的基于单一数据源的预测方法存在较大的误差和局限性。针对这一问题,本文提出了一种基于联邦学习的供应链需求预测方法。该方法通过构建一个分布式的预测模型,使得供应链中同一层级的企业可以在不泄露自己数据的情况下,利用其他企业的数据来优化自身的预测模型,从而提高预测的准确性和效率。本文通过数值实验与传统方法对比分析,验证了基于联邦学习的供应链需求预测方法在提高预测准确性和缓解牛鞭效应方面的有效性,为供应链管理提供了新的思路和方法。

分析师的疲劳、预测质量与股票收益——来自中国资本市场的证据

分析师的决策疲劳是否导致预测质量下降是业界关注的问题,本文对中国A股市场中分析师疲劳与预测质量关系进行研究,经过对2006—2023年A股市场卖方分析师个股研究报告中的盈余预测进行数据统计和分析,研究发现:分析师的决策疲劳与盈余预测误差呈正向关系,即随着一周内发布预测的增加,分析师对公司盈余预测误差也在增大。分析师在决策疲劳严重时发布的预测会预示着未来个股中长期收益降低,盈余预测误差在这一关系中充当部分中介变量。决策疲劳引起的较低股票收益与市场信息不对称相关。

特殊的“内部人”——多个大股东并存对管理层业绩预告的影响研究

以管理层业绩预告为代表的自愿性信息披露在改善信息环境、引导投资者预期以及稳定资本市场等方面具有重要意义,但我国资本市场业绩预告披露状况并不乐观。本文立足股权结构这一独特视角,系统探讨了多个大股东并存对管理层业绩预告质量的影响。研究发现,相较于仅存单一控股股东的公司,多个大股东并存从发布意愿、频率与精度三个层面有效改善了管理层业绩预告质量。机制检验表明,多个大股东并存通过增加监督意愿与强化监督能力影响管理层业绩预告质量。异质性分析发现,多个大股东并存对管理层业绩预告质量所产生的影响在非国有企业与经济政策不确定性较大的样本中更显著。同时,以民营及机构股东为代表的非控股大股东在改善管理层业绩预告质量中发挥了主要作用,且非控股大股东类型越丰富,越有助于改善管理层业绩预告质量。本文不仅为有效提升资本市场自愿性信息披露质量提供了可行之策,还对深化上市公司股权多元化改革形成了有益启发。

地区诚信与分析师盈利预测准确性:来自中国A股上市公司的证据

地区诚信作为我国非正式制度的重要组成部分,能够有效监督和约束上市公司行为。以2007—2018年中国沪深A股上市公司为研究对象,从北大法宝各地级市诈骗案判决文书中获取构造年度地级市层面诚信水平衡量指标的数据,进而探究地区诚信对分析师盈利预测准确性的影响。结果表明:(1)地区诚信水平越高,分析师对该地区上市公司盈利预测的分歧度和平均误差越小,这种作用在国有企业、内部治理水平低和金融发展程度低的地区样本中更明显,表明地区诚信可以部分替代所有制、内部治理水平和金融发展程度对分析师盈利预测准确性的作用。(2)机制检验发现,地区诚信通过提高上市公司信息披露质量来降低分析师盈利预测的分歧度和平均误差。因此,应完善社会诚信体系建设,营造良好的营商环境和氛围,提升地区诚信水平,降低信息不对称程度和减少分析师盈利预测误差,进而推动资本市场高质量发展。

上市公司高管新闻对分析师盈余预测行为的影响分析——基于分析师盈余预测准确度与分歧度的视角

互联网的发展,使市场上的信息使用模式发生了变化,同时也改变了分析者所处的信息环境与外在的约束条件。本文以我国上市公司2011-2022年数据为样本,解释了上市公司高管新闻对分析师盈余预测行为的影响及内在机理,拓展了高管新闻的经济后果与分析师盈余预测行为影响因素的研究。研究发现,上市公司高管新闻对分析师关注度有显著正向影响,却对分析师盈余预测准确度、分歧度有显著反向影响;网络搜索指数削弱了高管新闻对分析师盈余预测行为的影响。在进一步分析中,发现高管新闻对分析师盈余预测行为的影响是通过影响企业信息披露质量这一途径实现的。为此,应制定相关政策,规范新闻行业的发展;健全分析师制度,推动分析师行业的发展;完善信息披露制度,构建立体式和全方位的监管处罚体系。

分析师盈利预测之于股价的影响研究

本文基于嘉实基金的盈利预测库,收集2003至2004年A股公司的分析师盈利预测,通过事件研究考察相关的股价影响。研究发现,市场在实际业绩发布前已经开始对“盈利意外”(earnings surprise)①有显著的反应;且对于负面“盈利意外”的反应出现得较晚,主要体现在业绩公告日当天;而正面“盈利意外”的市场反应则开始于业绩公告日前较长一段时期。