We examine the relation between managerial ability and management forecast accuracy. We base our analysis on S＆P 500 Composite Index constituents for the period of 2006-2012. Data were collected from Thomson Reuteurs...We examine the relation between managerial ability and management forecast accuracy. We base our analysis on S＆P 500 Composite Index constituents for the period of 2006-2012. Data were collected from Thomson Reuteurs, Compustat and Demerjian, Lev, and McVay （2012）. We find that forecast accuracy is positively associated with managerial ability in the case of sales forecasts. Specifically, more able managers are associated with lower magnitude＇s forecast errors in the case of sales forecasts. Additional analysis finds that managerial ability is immaterial to EPS figures＇ forecast accuracy, i.e., EPS forecasts appear not to be affected by manager＇s superiority. Regarding sales forecasts, the results are consistent with the assertion that managers impact the quality of the delivered management forecasts. Regarding EPS forecasts, the results are in alignment with Demerjian, Lev, Lewis, and McVay （2013） who highlighted that managerial ability is an ability score related to the entire management team.展开更多
降雨数值预报在预防极端天气和其他气象事件方面具有重要作用。通过提供可靠的概率预报,可以更准确地描述预报结果的不确定性,为决策者提供科学依据,从而提高应用价值和经济价值。以寸滩-三峡区间为研究对象,根据TIGGE资料中的ECMWF和NC...降雨数值预报在预防极端天气和其他气象事件方面具有重要作用。通过提供可靠的概率预报,可以更准确地描述预报结果的不确定性,为决策者提供科学依据,从而提高应用价值和经济价值。以寸滩-三峡区间为研究对象,根据TIGGE资料中的ECMWF和NCEP 2种模式,对2020-2022年(5-10月)逐日降水集合预报信息的精度进行评估。首先,采用Talagrand分布和Brier评分来评估不同预见期的集合预报能力;然后,采用贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)来修正集合预报;最后,对不同预见期的BMA修正值和实际降雨值之间的误差进行分析。结果显示:ECMWF和NCEP 2种模式的预报能力随预见期的增加逐渐下降,在不同预见期下,通过BMA修正后的降雨预报值具有更高的精度。展开更多
Energy management benefits both consumers and utility companiesalike. Utility companies remain interested in identifying and reducing energywaste and theft, whereas consumers’ interest remain in lowering their energy...Energy management benefits both consumers and utility companiesalike. Utility companies remain interested in identifying and reducing energywaste and theft, whereas consumers’ interest remain in lowering their energyexpenses. A large supply-demand gap of over 6 GW exists in Pakistan asreported in 2018. Reducing this gap from the supply side is an expensiveand complex task. However, efficient energy management and distributionon demand side has potential to reduce this gap economically. Electricityload forecasting models are increasingly used by energy managers in takingreal-time tactical decisions to ensure efficient use of resources. Advancementin Machine-learning (ML) technology has enabled accurate forecasting ofelectricity consumption. However, the impact of computation cost affordedby these ML models is often ignored in favour of accuracy. This studyconsiders both accuracy and computation cost as concurrently significantfactors because together they shape the technology environment as well ascreate economic impact. Thus, a three-fold optimized load forecasting modelis proposed which includes (1) application specific parameters selection, (2)impact of different dataset granularities and (3) implementation of specificdata preparation. It deploys and compares the widely used back-propagationArtificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF) models for theprediction of electricity consumption of buildings within a university. In addition to the temporal and historical power consumption date as input parameters, the study also embeds weather data as well as university operationalcalendars resulting in improved performance. The outcomes are indicativethat the granularity i.e. the scale of details in data, and set of reduced and fullinput parameters impact performance accuracies differently for ANN and RFmodels. Experimental results show that overall RF model performed betterboth in terms of accuracy as well as computational time for a 1-min, 15-minand 1-h dataset granularities with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)of 2.42, 3.70 and 4.62 in 11.1 s, 1.14 s and 0.3 s respectively, thus well suitedfor a real-time energy monitoring application.展开更多
文摘We examine the relation between managerial ability and management forecast accuracy. We base our analysis on S＆P 500 Composite Index constituents for the period of 2006-2012. Data were collected from Thomson Reuteurs, Compustat and Demerjian, Lev, and McVay （2012）. We find that forecast accuracy is positively associated with managerial ability in the case of sales forecasts. Specifically, more able managers are associated with lower magnitude＇s forecast errors in the case of sales forecasts. Additional analysis finds that managerial ability is immaterial to EPS figures＇ forecast accuracy, i.e., EPS forecasts appear not to be affected by manager＇s superiority. Regarding sales forecasts, the results are consistent with the assertion that managers impact the quality of the delivered management forecasts. Regarding EPS forecasts, the results are in alignment with Demerjian, Lev, Lewis, and McVay （2013） who highlighted that managerial ability is an ability score related to the entire management team.
文摘降雨数值预报在预防极端天气和其他气象事件方面具有重要作用。通过提供可靠的概率预报,可以更准确地描述预报结果的不确定性,为决策者提供科学依据,从而提高应用价值和经济价值。以寸滩-三峡区间为研究对象,根据TIGGE资料中的ECMWF和NCEP 2种模式,对2020-2022年(5-10月)逐日降水集合预报信息的精度进行评估。首先,采用Talagrand分布和Brier评分来评估不同预见期的集合预报能力;然后,采用贝叶斯模型平均(Bayesian model averaging,BMA)来修正集合预报;最后,对不同预见期的BMA修正值和实际降雨值之间的误差进行分析。结果显示:ECMWF和NCEP 2种模式的预报能力随预见期的增加逐渐下降,在不同预见期下,通过BMA修正后的降雨预报值具有更高的精度。
基金This research is funded by Neurocomputation Lab, National Center ofArtificial Intelligence, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, 75270, Pakistan(PSDP.263/2017-18).
文摘Energy management benefits both consumers and utility companiesalike. Utility companies remain interested in identifying and reducing energywaste and theft, whereas consumers’ interest remain in lowering their energyexpenses. A large supply-demand gap of over 6 GW exists in Pakistan asreported in 2018. Reducing this gap from the supply side is an expensiveand complex task. However, efficient energy management and distributionon demand side has potential to reduce this gap economically. Electricityload forecasting models are increasingly used by energy managers in takingreal-time tactical decisions to ensure efficient use of resources. Advancementin Machine-learning (ML) technology has enabled accurate forecasting ofelectricity consumption. However, the impact of computation cost affordedby these ML models is often ignored in favour of accuracy. This studyconsiders both accuracy and computation cost as concurrently significantfactors because together they shape the technology environment as well ascreate economic impact. Thus, a three-fold optimized load forecasting modelis proposed which includes (1) application specific parameters selection, (2)impact of different dataset granularities and (3) implementation of specificdata preparation. It deploys and compares the widely used back-propagationArtificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF) models for theprediction of electricity consumption of buildings within a university. In addition to the temporal and historical power consumption date as input parameters, the study also embeds weather data as well as university operationalcalendars resulting in improved performance. The outcomes are indicativethat the granularity i.e. the scale of details in data, and set of reduced and fullinput parameters impact performance accuracies differently for ANN and RFmodels. Experimental results show that overall RF model performed betterboth in terms of accuracy as well as computational time for a 1-min, 15-minand 1-h dataset granularities with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)of 2.42, 3.70 and 4.62 in 11.1 s, 1.14 s and 0.3 s respectively, thus well suitedfor a real-time energy monitoring application.
