The Predictability of Ocean Environments that Contributed to the 2020/21 Extreme Cold Events in China:2020/21 La Niña and 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Loss

Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue.The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in China.However,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times.Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Niña after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1-2 month advancement.In this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored.For the 2020/21 La Niña prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Niña development from the early spring of 2020.For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent.

Stress verification of a TLP under extreme wave environment

Stress response of a tension leg platform （TLP） in extreme environments was investigated in this paper. A location on one of the gussets was selected as the object point, where directional stresses were numerically simulated and also experimentally verified by a strain gage. Environmental loading and the platform＇s structural strength were analyzed in accordance with industrial standards, utilizing linear wave theory and the finite element method （FEM）. The fast Fourier transform technique was used to calculate the stress response amplitude operators （RAO） from the records of measurements. A comparison was performed between the stress RAO of the numerical simulation and that of the actual measurements. The results indicated that the stress RAO of the numerical simulation fitted well with measured data at specified wave headings with different periods.

Selection and thermal physical characteristics analysis of in-situ condition preserved coring lunar rock simulant in extreme environment

With the increasing scarcity of Earth’s resources and the development of space science and technology,the exploration, development, and utilization of deep space-specific material resources(minerals, water ice, volatile compounds, etc.) are not only important to supplement the resources and reserves on Earth but also provide a material foundation for establishing extraterrestrial research bases. To achieve large depth in-situ condition-preserved coring(ICP-Coring) in the extreme lunar environment, first, lunar rock simulant was selected(SZU-1), which has a material composition, element distribution, and physical and mechanical properties that are approximately equivalent to those of lunar mare basalt. Second, the influence of the lunar-based in-situ environment on the phase, microstructure, and thermal physical properties(specific heat capacity, thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, and thermal expansion coefficient)of SZU-1 was explored and compared with the measured lunar rock data. It was found that in an air atmosphere, low temperature has a more pronounced effect on the relative content of olivine than other temperatures, while in a vacuum atmosphere, the relative contents of olivine and anorthite are significantly affected only at temperatures of approximately-20 and 200 ℃. When the vacuum level is less than100 Pa, the contribution of air conduction can be almost neglected, whereas it becomes dominant above this threshold. Additionally, as the testing temperature increases, the surface of SZU-1 exhibits increased microcracking, fracture opening, and unevenness, while the specific heat capacity, thermal conductivity,and thermal expansion coefficient show nonlinear increases. Conversely, the thermal diffusivity exhibits a nonlinear decreasing trend. The relationship between thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, and temperature can be effectively described by an exponential function(R^(2)>0.98). The research results are consistent with previous studies on real lunar rocks. These research findings are expected to be applied in the development of the test and analysis systems of ICP-Coring in a lunar environment and the exploration of the mechanism of machine-rock interaction in the in-situ drilling and coring process.

Femtosecond laser fabrication of nanograting-based distributed fiber sensors for extreme environmental applications

The femtosecond laser has emerged as a powerful tool for micro-and nanoscale device fabrication. Through nonlinear ionization processes, nanometer-sized material modifications can be inscribed in transparent materials for device fabrication. This paper describes femtosecond precision inscription of nanograting in silica fiber cores to form both distributed and point fiber sensors for sensing applications in extreme environmental conditions. Through the use of scanning electron microscope imaging and laser processing optimization,high-temperature stable, Type II femtosecond laser modifications were continuously inscribed,point by point, with only an insertion loss at 1 d B m~(-1) or 0.001 d B per point sensor device.High-temperature performance of fiber sensors was tested at 1000℃, which showed a temperature fluctuation of ±5.5℃ over 5 days. The low laser-induced insertion loss in optical fibers enabled the fabrication of a 1.4 m, radiation-resilient distributed fiber sensor. The in-pile testing of the distributed fiber sensor further showed that fiber sensors can execute stable and distributed temperature measurements in extreme radiation environments. Overall, this paper demonstrates that femtosecond-laser-fabricated fiber sensors are suitable measurement devices for applications in extreme environments.

Spatiotemporal variation of ecological environment quality and extreme climate drivers on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Protecting the ecological security of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)is of great importance for global ecology and climate.Over the past few decades,climate extremes have posed a significant challenge to the ecological environment of the QTP.However,there are few studies that explored the effects of climate extremes on ecological environment quality of the QTP,and few researchers have made quantitative analysis.Hereby,this paper proposed the Ecological Environmental Quality Index(EEQI)for analyzing the spatial and temporal variation of ecological environment quality on the QTP from 2000 to 2020,and explored the effects of climate extremes on EEQI based on Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)model.The results showed that the ecological environment quality in QTP was poor in the west,but good in the east.Between 2000 and 2020,the area of EEQI variation was large(34.61%of the total area),but the intensity of EEQI variation was relatively low and occurred mainly by a slightly increasing level(EEQI change range of 0.05-0.1).The overall ecological environment quality of the QTP exhibited spatial and temporal fluctuations,which may be attributed to climate extremes.Significant spatial heterogeneity was observed in the effects of the climate extremes on ecological environment quality.Specifically,the effects of daily temperature range(DTR),number of frost days(FD0),maximum 5-day precipitation(RX5day),and moderate precipitation days(R10)on ecological environment quality were positive in most regions.Furthermore,there were significant temporal differences in the effects of consecutive dry days(CDD),consecutive wet days(CWD),R10,and FD0 on ecological environment quality.These differences may be attributed to variances in ecological environment quality,climate extremes,and vegetation types across different regions.In conclusion,the impact of climate extremes on ecological environment quality exhibits complex patterns.These findings will assist managers in identifying changes in the ecological environment quality of the QTP and addressing the effects of climate extremes.

Will high-entropy carbides and borides be enabling materials for extreme environments?

The concept of multi-principal component has created promising opportunities for the development of novel high-entropy ceramics for extreme environments encountered in advanced turbine engines, nuclear reactors, and hypersonic vehicles, as it expands the compositional space of ceramic materials with tailored properties within a single-phase solid solution. The unique physical properties of some high-entropy carbides and borides, such as higher hardness, high-temperature strength, lower thermal conductivity, and improved irradiation resistance than the constitute ceramics, have been observed. These promising properties may be attributed to the compositional complexity, atomic-level disorder, lattice distortion, and other fundamental processes related to defect formation and phonon scattering.This manuscript serves as a critical review of the recent progress in high-entropy carbides and borides, focusing on synthesis and evaluations of their performance in extreme high-temperature, irradiation, and gaseous environments.

The role of diminishing Arctic sea ice in increased winter snowfall over northern high-latitude continents in a warming environment

Large parts of North America, Europe, Siberia, and East Asia have experienced cold snaps and heavy snowfalls for the past few winters, which have been linked to rapid decline of Arctic sea ice. Although the role of reduction in Arctic sea ice in recent cold and snowy winters is still a matter of debate, there is considerable interest in determining whether such an emerging climate feedback will persist into the future in a warming environment. Here we show that increased winter snowfall would be a robust feature throughout the 21st century in the northeastern Europe, central and northern Asia and northern North America as projected by current-day climate model simulations under the medium mitigation scenario. We argue that the increased winter snowfall in these regions during the 21st century is due primarily to the diminishing autumn Arctic sea ice （largely externally forced）. Variability of the winter Arctic Oscillation （dominant mode of natural variability in the Northern Hemisphere）, in contrast, has little contribution to the increased winter snowfall. This is evident in not only the multi-model ensemble mean, but also each individual model （not model-dependent）. Our findings reinforce suggestions that a strong sea ice-snowfall feedback might have emerged, and would be enhanced in coming decades, increasing the chance of heavy snowfall events in northern high-latitude continents.

A Statistical Linkage between Extreme Cold Wave Events in Southern China and Sea Ice Extent in the Barents-Kara Seas from 1289 to 2017

Arctic sea ice loss and the associated enhanced warming has been related to midlatitude weather and climate changes through modulate meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation. However, contrasting lines of evidence result in low confidence in the influence of Arctic warming on midlatitude climate. This study examines the additional perspectives that palaeoclimate evidence provides on the decadal relationship between autumn sea ice extent (SIE) in the Barents-Kara (B-K) Seas and extreme cold wave events (ECWEs) in southern China. Reconstruction of the winter Cold Index and SIE in the B-K Seas from 1289 to 2017 shows that a significant anti-phase relationship occurred during most periods of decreasing SIE, indicating that cold winters are more likely in low SIE years due to the “bridge” role of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Siberian High. It is confirmed that the recent increase in ECWEs in southern China is closely related to the sea ice decline in the B-K Seas. However, our results show that the linkage is unstable, especially in high SIE periods, and it is probably modulated by atmospheric internal variability.

Extreme Value Estimation of Beaufort Sea Ice Dynamics Driven by Global Wind Effects

The purpose of the present study is to investigate the extreme values of the ice drift speed,which are also considered in the light of the magnitude of the simultaneous wind speed.The relationship between wind speed and ice drift speed is studied.The long-term ice drift data is collected by using local subsurface measurements based on acoustic Doppler current profilers(ADCP)in the Beaufort Sea during the period of 2006-2017.Upward-looking sonars(ULS)are deployed in order to observe the ice thickness as well as to identify events that correspond to open water conditions.The relationship between the ice drift speed and the wind speed is also investigated.It is found that the magnitude of the average ice drift speed is approximately 2.5%of the wind speed during the winter season.Estimation of the extreme values of the ice drift speed is studied by application of the average conditional exceedance rate(ACER)method.It is found that the extreme ice drift speed during the ice melt season(i.e.the summer season)is approximately20%-30%higher than that during the ice growth season(i.e.the winter season).The extreme ice drift speed can be effectively estimated based on the 2.5%wind speed.Moreover,the extreme ice drift speed can be obtained based on the extreme values of 2.5%of the wind speed based on multiplying with an amplification factor which varies in the range from 1.7 to 2.0 during the growth season,corresponding to increasing return periods of 10,25,50 and 100years.

The pH value and electrical conductivity of atmospheric environment from ice cores in the Tianshan Mountains

Electrical Conductivity Measurement （ECM） from ice core is a representative index for atmospheric environmental change. The pH value and ECM from three shallow ice cores （each 3.85 m, 231 ice samples total） on Glacier No.1 at the headwater of Urumqi River, Glacier No.48 in Kuitun area, and Miaoergou Glacier in Hami area in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, western China, were measured and analyzed for atmospheric environment records research. Ice core record shows that the changing trend of pH and ECM in three sites in recent years is different： ECM in Kuitun increases with the ice depth change, but ECM in Hami and Urumqi Glacier No.1 ice cores show a decreasing trend. Average ECM value in Hami is much larger than other two sites, just as the dust concentration and ions concentration are also very high in this site. ECM records in all three sites are mainly affected by aerosol mineral dust of Central Asia, and correlative coefficients of ECM and mineral ions such as Ca^2＋, Mg^2＋, Na^2＋ are all significantly high. The pH value and ECM are also significantly high correlative coefficients in the eastern Tianshan Mountains. Comparison between the eastern Tianshan Mountains and other sites in western China, and Polar Regions, shows that the difference of ECM can very well reflect the spatial difference of worldwide atmospheric environment.

THE LABORATORY OF ICE CORE AND COLD REGIONS ENVIRONMENT

Affiliation unit: Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Cold Regions Environment, CAS Brief history: The Laboratory of Ice Core and Cold Regions Environment (LICCRE) was formally approved to open domestically and internationally by Chinese Academy of Sciences in April 1997. It is attached to the Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology, CAS.

Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21:Comparisons,Causes,and Future Implications

Three striking and impactful extreme cold weather events successively occurred across East Asia and North America during the mid-winter of 2020/21.These events open a new window to detect possible underlying physical processes.The analysis here indicates that the occurrences of the three events resulted from integrated effects of a concurrence of anomalous thermal conditions in three oceans and interactive Arctic-lower latitude atmospheric circulation processes,which were linked and influenced by one major sudden stratospheric warming(SSW).The North Atlantic warm blob initiated an increased poleward transient eddy heat flux,reducing the Barents-Kara seas sea ice over a warmed ocean and disrupting the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)to induce the major SSW.The Rossby wave trains excited by the North Atlantic warm blob and the tropical Pacific La Nina interacted with the Arctic tropospheric circulation anomalies or the tropospheric polar vortex to provide dynamic settings,steering cold polar air outbreaks.The long memory of the retreated sea ice with the underlying warm ocean and the amplified tropospheric blocking highs from the midlatitudes to the Arctic intermittently fueled the increased transient eddy heat flux to sustain the SSW over a long time period.The displaced or split SPV centers associated with the SSW played crucial roles in substantially intensifying the tropospheric circulation anomalies and moving the jet stream to the far south to cause cold air outbreaks to a rarely observed extreme state.The results have significant implications for increasing prediction skill and improving policy decision making to enhance resilience in“One Health,One Future”.

The Nature and Predictability of the East Asian Extreme Cold Events of 2020/21

Three extreme cold events invaded China during the early winter period between December 2020 to mid-January 2021 and caused drastic temperature drops,setting new low-temperature records at many stations during 6−8 January 2021.These cold events occurred under background conditions of low Arctic sea ice extent and a La Niña event.This is somewhat expected since the coupled effect of large Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and sea surface temperature cooling in the tropical Pacific usually favors cold event occurrences in Eurasia.Further diagnosis reveals that the first cold event is related to the southward movement of the polar vortex and the second one is related to a continent-wide ridge,while both the southward polar vortex and the Asian blocking are crucial for the third event.Here,we evaluate the forecast skill for these three events utilizing the operational forecasts from the ECMWF model.We find that the third event had the highest predictability since it achieves the best skill in forecasting the East Asian cooling among the three events.Therefore,the predictability of these cold events,as well as their relationships with the atmospheric initial conditions,Arctic sea ice,and La Niña deserve further investigation.

Extreme Cold Events in North America and Eurasia in November-December 2022: A Potential Vorticity Gradient Perspective

From 17 November to 27 December 2022, extremely cold snowstorms frequently swept across North America and Eurasia. Diagnostic analysis reveals that these extreme cold events were closely related to the establishment of blocking circulations. Alaska Blocking(AB) and subsequent Ural Blocking(UB) episodes are linked to the phase transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and represent the main atmospheric regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. The downstream dispersion and propagation of Rossby wave packets from Alaska to East Asia provide a large-scale connection between AB and UB episodes. Based on the nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI) model, we found that the meridional potential vorticity gradient(PVy) in November and December of 2022 was anomalously weak in the mid-high latitudes from North America to Eurasia and provided a favorable background for the prolonged maintenance of UB and AB events and the generation of associated severe extreme snowstorms. However, the difference in the UB in terms of its persistence,location, and strength between November and December is related to the positive(negative) NAO in November(December). During the La Ni?a winter of 2022, the UB and AB events are related to the downward propagation of stratospheric anomalies, in addition to contributions by La Ni?a and low Arctic sea ice concentrations as they pertain to reducing PVyin mid-latitudes.

An Isentropic Mass Circulation View on the Extreme Cold Events in the 2020/21 Winter

Three extreme cold events successively occurred across East Asia and North America in the 2020/21 winter.This study investigates the underlying mechanisms of these record-breaking persistent cold events from the isentropic mass circulation(IMC)perspective.Results show that the midlatitude cold surface temperature anomalies always co-occurred with the high-latitude warm anomalies,and this was closely related to the strengthening of the low-level equatorward cold air branch of the IMC,particularly along the climatological cold air routes over East Asia and North America.Specifically,the two cold surges over East Asia in early winter were results of intensification of cold air transport there,influenced by the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn.The weakened cold air transport over North America associated with warmer northeastern Pacific sea surface temperatures(SSTs)explained the concurrent anomalous warmth there.This enhanced a wavenumber-1 pattern and upward wave propagation,inducing a simultaneous and long-lasting stronger poleward warm air branch(WB)of the IMC in the stratosphere and hence a displacement-type Stratospheric Sudden Warming(SSW)event on 4 January.The WB-induced increase in the air mass transported into the polar stratosphere was followed by intensification of the equatorward cold branch,hence promoting the occurrence of two extreme cold events respectively over East Asia in the beginning of January and over North America in February.Results do not yield a robust direct linkage from La Niña to the SSW event,IMC changes,and cold events,though the extratropical warm SSTs are found to contribute to the February cold surge in North America.

Changes of marine productivity and sedimentary environment recorded by biogenic components in the Antarctica Ross Sea since the last deglaciation

Changes in the marine productivity and sedimentary environment since the last deglaciation in the Ross Sea are presented in this paper.Opal has replaced calcium carbonate as the major biogenic component and has a significantly positive correlation with total organic carbon(TOC),which indicates that siliceous phytoplankton controlled the absorption and release of carbon by the biological pump and was the main producer of marine organic matter.Using the AMS 14C age framework,foraminiferal fossils and redox sensitive elements(RSEs),we found that both the sedimentary environment and marine productivity changed clearly in^11 cal ka BP,which is more likely related with the melting and retreat of the Ross Ice Shelf.In addition,the increase of marine productivity promoted the sinking of more organic-matter to the seabed.A large proportion of oxygen in the bottom water body was consumed and more carbon dioxide was produced during the decomposition of organic matter,making the bottom water body more soluble to calcium carbonate.

Observed Trends in Extreme Temperature over the Klang Valley, Malaysia

This study investigates the recent extreme temperature trends across 19 stations in the Klang Valley, Malaysia, over the period 2006^-16. Fourteen extreme index trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, with Sen’s slope as a magnitude estimator. Generally, the annual daily mean temperature, daily mean maximum temperature, and daily mean minimum temperature in the Klang Valley increased significantly, by 0.07°C yr^-1, 0.07°C yr^-1 and 0.08°C yr^-1, respectively. For the warm temperature indices, the results indicated a significant upward trend for the annual maximum of maximum temperature, by 0.09°C yr^-1, and the annual maximum of minimum temperature, by 0.11°C yr^-1. The results for the total number of warm days and warm nights showed significant increasing trends of 5.02 d yr^-1 and 6.92 d yr^-1, respectively. For the cold temperature indices, there were upward trends for the annual minimum of maximum temperature, by 0.09°C yr^-1, and the annual minimum of minimum temperature, by 0.03°C yr^-1, concurrent with the decreases in the total number cold days (TX10P), with -3.80 d yr^-1, and cold nights (TN10P), with -4.33 d yr^-1. The 34°C and 37°C summer days results showed significant upward trends of 4.10 d yr^-1 and 0.25 d yr^-1, respectively. Overall, these findings showed upward warming trends in the Klang Valley, with the minimum temperature rate increasing more than that of the maximum temperature, especially in urban areas.

Source and environmental significance of oxalate in Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Qilian Mountains, Western China

Retrieval of oxalate from snow and ice provides information on past environmental changes. In recent years, records of organic acids in middle-and low-latitude glaciers have attracted the attention of researchers globally. In this study, we analyzed oxalates in an ice core from Laohugou Glacier No. 12 on the Qilian Mountains at an elevation of 5,040 m a.s.l. in2006. Average oxalate concentration was 18.5±2.4 ng/g over the prior 46 years. Oxalate values showed a significantly increasing trend since 1985. From 1985 to 1995, oxalate concentrations had large fluctuations, peaking in about 1987 and exhibiting a slightly decreasing trend since 1995. The result shows that the abrupt increase of oxalate concentration in the ice core since the mid-1980 s reflects atmospheric environmental pollution by human and industrial activities.

The marine environmental evolution in the northern Norwegian Sea revealed by foraminifera during the last 60 ka

Both planktonic and benthic foraminifera were identified in a sediment core collected from the northern Norwegian Sea to reconstruct the paleoceanographic evolution since the last glaciation.The assemblages and distribution patterns of dominant foraminiferal species with special habitat preferences indicated that three marine environments occurred in the northern Norwegian Sea since 62 ka BP:(1)an environment controlled by the circulation of the North Atlantic Current(NAC);(2)by polynya-related sinking of brines and upwelling of intermediate water surrounding the polynya;(3)by melt-water from Barents Sea Ice Sheet(BSIS).At 62-52.5 ka BP,a period with the highest summer insolation during the last glaciatial period,intensification of the NAC led to higher absolute abundances and higher diversity of foraminiferal faunas.The higher abundance of benthic species Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi indicates bottom water conditions that were well-ventilated with an adequate food supply;however,higher abundances of polar planktonic foraminiferal species Neogloboquadrina pachyderma(sin.)indicate that the near-surface temperatures were still low.During mid-late Marine Isotope Stage(MIS)3(52.5-29 ka BP),the marine environment of the northern Norwegian Sea alternately changed among the above mentioned three environments.At 29-17ka BP during the last glacial maximum,the dominant benthic species Bolivina arctica from the Arctic Ocean indicates an extreme cold bottom environment.The BSIS expanded to its maximum extent during this period,and vast polynya formed at the edge of the ice sheet.The sinking of brines from the formation of sea ice in the polynyas caused upwelling,indicated by the upwelling adapted planktonic species Globigerinita glutinata.At 17-10 ka BP,the northern Norwegian Sea was controlled by melt-water.With the ablation of BSIS,massive amounts of melt water discharged into the Norwegian Sea,resulting in strong water column stratification,poor ventilation,and an oligotrophic bottom condition,which ledto a drastic decline in the abundance and diversity of foraminifera.At 10-0 ka BP,the marine environment was transformed again by the control of the NAC,which continues to modern day.The abrupt decrease in relative abundance of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma(sin.)indicates a rise in near-surface temperature with the strengthening of the NAC and without the influence of the BSIS.