The application model of epidemic disease assessment technology for Web-based large-scale pig farm was expounded from the identification of epidemic disease risk factors, construction of risk assessment model and deve...The application model of epidemic disease assessment technology for Web-based large-scale pig farm was expounded from the identification of epidemic disease risk factors, construction of risk assessment model and development of risk assessment system. The assessed pig farm uploaded the epidemic disease risk data information through on-line answering evaluating questionnaire to get the immediate evaluation report. The model could enhance the risk communication between pig farm veterinarian, manager and veterinary experts to help farm system understand and find disease risk factors, assess and report the potential high risk items of the pig farm in the three systems of engineering epidemic disease prevention technology, biological safety and immune monitoring, and promote the improvement and perfection of epidemic disease prevention and control measures.展开更多
Mathematical and computational models are useful tools for virtual policy experiments on infectious disease con-trol.Most models fail to provide flexible and rapid simulation of various epidemic scenarios for policy a...Mathematical and computational models are useful tools for virtual policy experiments on infectious disease con-trol.Most models fail to provide flexible and rapid simulation of various epidemic scenarios for policy assessment.This paper establishes a multi-scale agent-based model to investigate the infectious disease propagation between cities and within a city using the knowledge from person-to-person transmission.In the model,the contact and infection of individuals at the micro scale where an agent represents a person provide insights for the interactions of agents at the meso scale where an agent refers to hundreds of individuals.Four cities with frequent population movements in China are taken as an example and actual data on traffic patterns and demographic parameters are adopted.The scenarios for dynamic propagation of infectious disease with no external measures are compared versus the scenarios with vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions.The model predicts that the peak of infections will decline by 67.37%with 80%vaccination rate,compared to a drop of 89.56%when isolation and quarantine measures are also in place.The results highlight the importance of controlling the source of infection by isolation and quarantine throughout the epidemic.We also study the effect when cities implement inconsis-tent public health interventions,which is common in practical situations.Based on our results,the model can be applied to COVID-19 and other infectious diseases according to the various needs of government agencies.展开更多
基金Supported by the Fund Program of Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences(6111689)the Planning Program of"the Twelfth Five-year-plan"in National Science and Technology for the Rural Developme+nt in China(2015BAD12B04-1.2)the Fund for Independent Innovation of Agricultural Science and Technology of Jiangsu Province[CX(16)1006]~~
文摘The application model of epidemic disease assessment technology for Web-based large-scale pig farm was expounded from the identification of epidemic disease risk factors, construction of risk assessment model and development of risk assessment system. The assessed pig farm uploaded the epidemic disease risk data information through on-line answering evaluating questionnaire to get the immediate evaluation report. The model could enhance the risk communication between pig farm veterinarian, manager and veterinary experts to help farm system understand and find disease risk factors, assess and report the potential high risk items of the pig farm in the three systems of engineering epidemic disease prevention technology, biological safety and immune monitoring, and promote the improvement and perfection of epidemic disease prevention and control measures.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(No.2020YFA0714500)National Science Foundation of China(Grant nos.72174099,72042010)High-tech Discipline Construction Fundings for Universities in Beijing(Safety Science and Engineering).
文摘Mathematical and computational models are useful tools for virtual policy experiments on infectious disease con-trol.Most models fail to provide flexible and rapid simulation of various epidemic scenarios for policy assessment.This paper establishes a multi-scale agent-based model to investigate the infectious disease propagation between cities and within a city using the knowledge from person-to-person transmission.In the model,the contact and infection of individuals at the micro scale where an agent represents a person provide insights for the interactions of agents at the meso scale where an agent refers to hundreds of individuals.Four cities with frequent population movements in China are taken as an example and actual data on traffic patterns and demographic parameters are adopted.The scenarios for dynamic propagation of infectious disease with no external measures are compared versus the scenarios with vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions.The model predicts that the peak of infections will decline by 67.37%with 80%vaccination rate,compared to a drop of 89.56%when isolation and quarantine measures are also in place.The results highlight the importance of controlling the source of infection by isolation and quarantine throughout the epidemic.We also study the effect when cities implement inconsis-tent public health interventions,which is common in practical situations.Based on our results,the model can be applied to COVID-19 and other infectious diseases according to the various needs of government agencies.
