The spatial and temporal variations of ≥10℃ annual accumulated temperature （AAT10） were analyzed by using the linear trend line method, cumulative anomaly method and the multiple linear regression model （MLRM） i...The spatial and temporal variations of ≥10℃ annual accumulated temperature （AAT10） were analyzed by using the linear trend line method, cumulative anomaly method and the multiple linear regression model （MLRM） interpolation method based on the daily meteorological observation data from 104 meteorological stations in Southern China and surrounding 39 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2011. The results show that： （1） From time scale point of view, the climatic trend of the AAT10 increased with an average of 7.54℃/decade in Southern China since 1960. The area of AAT10〈6000℃ decreased from 1960 to 2011, and the area of 6000℃〈AAT10〈8000℃ decreased from 1960 to 1979 and increased from 1980 to 2011, and the area of AAT10〉8000℃ increased from 1960 to 2011. （2） From spatial scale point of view, the AAT10 in Southern China reduced with increasing latitude and reduced with increasing altitude. The proportion of the area with 5000℃〈 AAT10〈8000℃ accounted for 70% of the study area, followed by the area of 4000℃〈AAT10 〈5000℃; and the area of AAT10〈4000℃ and AAT10〉8000℃ was the least. Climate trend rate of the AAT10 at 99% of the meteorological stations was greater than zero, which indicated that the AAT10 increased significantly in the central Yunnan province, southern Guangdong province as well as Hainan Island. （3） Comparison of period A （1960-1989） and period B （1980-2011） with the change of temperature zones shows that the boundaries of cool temperate zone, mid-temperate zone and warm temperate zone shifted northward and shrank westward. The northern boundary of north subtropical zone and mid-subtropical zone shifted northward gradually by over 0.5° and 0.5° latitude, respectively. The western part of northern boundary of south subtropical zone and marginal tropical zone shifted northward by 0.2° and 0.4° latitude, respectively. The change of temperature zones was expanded to high altitude and latitude. （4） The increase of the AAT10 is conducive to the production of tropical crops planted, which will increase the planting area that was suitable for tropical crops, and expand the planting boundaries to high latitude and high altitude.展开更多
The global climate warming accelerated in the 1980s has become a focus in the world. Based on the month by month and year by year temperature data from 160 representative stations throughout the country during 1951-19...The global climate warming accelerated in the 1980s has become a focus in the world. Based on the month by month and year by year temperature data from 160 representative stations throughout the country during 1951-1999, this paper analyses annual and four seasons' temperature variations of China since the 1980s. It was found out that the non-equalibrium response with relative great regional and seasonal differences is represented in the country's climate warming. In regional changes a trend of 'warm in the north and cold in the south' occurs whereas in seasonal changes, the characters of 'warm in winter and cool in summer' present. Significant verification of the temperature variations conducted in terms of mathematical statistics reveals that a confidence level of over 95% has been basically reached in areas north of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, according to data of diurnal mean temperature steadily passing through accumulated temperature ≥10℃ from 335 stations since 1951 or since the founding of the stations in the early 1950s to 1999, comparative analysis of the data of the last 19 years with that of the first 30 years was conducted and the accumulated temperature ≥10℃ and the variation range of the persistent number of days ≥10℃ were obtained. It was concluded that a general northward shift of central subtropics, north subtropics, warm temperate zone, mesothermal zone and frigid temperate zone of eastern China was observed. The northward shift of north subtropics and warm temperate zone was obvious but changes of south subtropics and marginal tropics were insignificant. In western China, in addition to southwestern Yunnan, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Inner Mongolia where the temperature zones of each either shifted northward or trended to move upward, not much changes were found in other areas or they shifted southward slightly and declined.展开更多
基金National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program),No.2010CB951502The Fundamental Research Founds for Central Institutes(Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences(CATAS)),No.1630012012017,No.1630012013012,No.1630012014020+1 种基金Spark Research Program of China,No.2014GA 800006Key Science and Technology Research Program of Hainan Province,No.ZDXM2014082
文摘The spatial and temporal variations of ≥10℃ annual accumulated temperature （AAT10） were analyzed by using the linear trend line method, cumulative anomaly method and the multiple linear regression model （MLRM） interpolation method based on the daily meteorological observation data from 104 meteorological stations in Southern China and surrounding 39 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2011. The results show that： （1） From time scale point of view, the climatic trend of the AAT10 increased with an average of 7.54℃/decade in Southern China since 1960. The area of AAT10〈6000℃ decreased from 1960 to 2011, and the area of 6000℃〈AAT10〈8000℃ decreased from 1960 to 1979 and increased from 1980 to 2011, and the area of AAT10〉8000℃ increased from 1960 to 2011. （2） From spatial scale point of view, the AAT10 in Southern China reduced with increasing latitude and reduced with increasing altitude. The proportion of the area with 5000℃〈 AAT10〈8000℃ accounted for 70% of the study area, followed by the area of 4000℃〈AAT10 〈5000℃; and the area of AAT10〈4000℃ and AAT10〉8000℃ was the least. Climate trend rate of the AAT10 at 99% of the meteorological stations was greater than zero, which indicated that the AAT10 increased significantly in the central Yunnan province, southern Guangdong province as well as Hainan Island. （3） Comparison of period A （1960-1989） and period B （1980-2011） with the change of temperature zones shows that the boundaries of cool temperate zone, mid-temperate zone and warm temperate zone shifted northward and shrank westward. The northern boundary of north subtropical zone and mid-subtropical zone shifted northward gradually by over 0.5° and 0.5° latitude, respectively. The western part of northern boundary of south subtropical zone and marginal tropical zone shifted northward by 0.2° and 0.4° latitude, respectively. The change of temperature zones was expanded to high altitude and latitude. （4） The increase of the AAT10 is conducive to the production of tropical crops planted, which will increase the planting area that was suitable for tropical crops, and expand the planting boundaries to high latitude and high altitude.
基金This is the key project funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49731020)
文摘The global climate warming accelerated in the 1980s has become a focus in the world. Based on the month by month and year by year temperature data from 160 representative stations throughout the country during 1951-1999, this paper analyses annual and four seasons' temperature variations of China since the 1980s. It was found out that the non-equalibrium response with relative great regional and seasonal differences is represented in the country's climate warming. In regional changes a trend of 'warm in the north and cold in the south' occurs whereas in seasonal changes, the characters of 'warm in winter and cool in summer' present. Significant verification of the temperature variations conducted in terms of mathematical statistics reveals that a confidence level of over 95% has been basically reached in areas north of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, according to data of diurnal mean temperature steadily passing through accumulated temperature ≥10℃ from 335 stations since 1951 or since the founding of the stations in the early 1950s to 1999, comparative analysis of the data of the last 19 years with that of the first 30 years was conducted and the accumulated temperature ≥10℃ and the variation range of the persistent number of days ≥10℃ were obtained. It was concluded that a general northward shift of central subtropics, north subtropics, warm temperate zone, mesothermal zone and frigid temperate zone of eastern China was observed. The northward shift of north subtropics and warm temperate zone was obvious but changes of south subtropics and marginal tropics were insignificant. In western China, in addition to southwestern Yunnan, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Inner Mongolia where the temperature zones of each either shifted northward or trended to move upward, not much changes were found in other areas or they shifted southward slightly and declined.
