An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability

The scientific idea of earthquake prediction in China is introduced in this paper. The various problems on evaluation of earthquake prediction ability are analyzed. The practical effect of prediction on annual seismic risk areas in 1990~2000 in China is discussed based on R-value evaluation method, and the ability of present earthquake prediction in China is reviewed.

The Two-dimensional Time Coordinate System and Time Prediction Research of M≥6.7 Strong Earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Since the 20 thcentury,the time intervals of M ≥6.7 strong earthquakes in the SichuanYunnan region show obvious regularity.Using the years of the strong events,a twodimensional time coordinate system is generated,based on which,the time prediction model is constructed for strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.Prediction analysis shows that there is risk of generating four earthquakes with M ≥ 6.7 in the Sichuan-Yunnan region in the future 16 years,and there are strong signals for M ≥6.7earthquakes for periods 2012-2021 and 2025-2029.The strong earthquakes may occur around 2014-2015,2019 and 2027.

Prediction of the Earlier Strong Aftershocks in the Earthquake Sequences by the Pseudo-Periodicity Method

We propose the pseudo-periodicity method and its quantitative prediction indexes for the occurrence time of earlier strong aftershock. We conducted tests of regressive prediction, and the R-value of the tests is 0.45, indicating that this method is effective for prediction.

Method Research of Earthquake Prediction and Volcano Prediction in Italy

This paper adopts the earthquake catalogue of the European Mediterranean Seismological Centre (EMSC), in accordance with the principles of Seismo-Geothermics Theory and the concept of seismic cone;it discusses the integrity of the earthquake catalogue and the overview of Mediterranean seismic cones;it focuses on the structural details and structural feature of the Italian branch of the Mediterranean seismic cone;it deduces the precursory process of subcrustal earthquake activities before two earthquakes magnitude over 6 and the eruptions of Etna volcano since 2005;then it summarizes the prediction working method of Seismo-Geothermics on estimating the general shell strength, the general period, and the rough location of future earthquake or volcano activities;and finally it discusses and explains some possible problems. The principle and working process of this method were testified in card No. 0419 in 2012, the author’s prediction card, which can apply to predict for intracrustal strong earthquakes and volcano activities within the global twenty four seismic cones. The purpose of this paper is to develop the tools and methods of the prediction of future earthquake and volcano.

The dawn of successful prediction of major earthquakes

Since 1949, Chinese scientists have successfully predicted occurrence of many major earthquakes, such as the Haicheng MT. 3 event in 1975 and the Asian Game Village shock of 1990. In recent 20 years, however, some seis-mologists abroad have taken a disappointed and pessimistic view to earthquake prediction because of several failures. They suggest that the efforts should turn toward other fields, such as identification of building＇ s earthquake-proof capability, enhancement of house strength, and development of precise observational systems which will facilitate fast loca- ting of future major temblors and emergent relief on site. Such a pessimistic feeling has also influenced some Chinese researchers of the seismological community who attempted to give up efforts for earthquake prediction. Meanwhile other scientific workers are insisting in experiments and practices in this field and achieved some inspiring results. In this paper, we present several representative cases to illustrate that earthquakes are predictable under some conditions.

Information characteristics of ground fluid precursors of strong continental earthquakes

It has become seismologist's common view to attach importance to the study of the characteristics about the relationship among the space distribution of precursory anomalous stations, active structure, deep rock character, and different kinds of earthquakes. In this paper, the information characteristics of ground fluid precursors are analyzed with a few examples of earthquakes. The result shows that information characteristics of ground fluid precursors mainly demonstrate, temporally stage and acceleration pattern, specially, swarm and concurrence feature. It is a key scientific problem, we propose, to give deep study on the stage and concurrence pattern for realizing the seismogenic process as well as making relatively correct prediction to the potential earthquake focus and the occurrence time.

Periodic spectral characteristics of seismicity before strong earthquakes and their application

Periodic spectral characteristics of earthquake activity in the seismic strengthening areas of 24 ewthquakes withM≥ 6.0 are studied by the maximum entropy spectral method whose superiority is tested. Then the follow resultshave been obtained : ① The periodic spectra of seismic activity in seismic strengthening areas are different indifferent stage in earthquake-generating processes. Long periodic spectra and short ones coexist in normal stage,while only short ones (on average, 43% of long ones) exist and long ones disappear prior to ear’thquakes. ② Theappearing time of short period before earthquakes has some relations with magnitude. The result shows thatdecades or even one hundred years is the common value for a great earthquake of M=8.0, 30 years for one withmagnitude about 7 and 20-30 years for a strong quake of M=6.0. For the same magnitude earthquakes in differentregions the appearing time is also different. For example, it is longer in North China than that in the western pan ofChina. Then the characteristics are preliminarily explained applying the strong body earthquake-generating model.Applying the maximum entropy spectral method, the idea of tendency prediction for strong and great earthquakesis suggested and used into practice. for example. the tendency predictions of the Wuding earthquake with M=6.5and the Lijiang earthquake of M=7.0 in Yunnan Province got some positive effects. So a new method of tendencyprediction of M≥6.0 earthquakes is offered.

Study of the Seismicity of Strong Earthquakes in the Yunnan Area

Yunnan is located in the east margin of the collision zone between the India Plate and the Eurasian Plate on the Chinese Continent, where crustal movement is violent and moderatestrong earthquakes are frequent. In addition, the area features marked active block movement. Therefore, Yunnan is a perfect place for research on strong earthquake activity. Through the study on the temporal and spatial distribution of the M ≥ 6.7 earthquakes and the related earthquake dynamics in Yunnan in the last century, we conclude that the four seismically active periods, which are characterized by alternative activity in the east and the west part of Yunnan, possibly result from a combination of active and quiescent periods in each of the east and west part. And for every 100 years, there may be a period in which strong earthquakes occur in the east and west parts simultaneously. In addition, the seismicity of strong earthquakes in Yunnan corresponds well to that in the peripheral region. The seismicity of the great earthquakes in the Andaman-Myanmar Tectonic Arc belt indicates, to some extent, the beginning of a seismically active period in Yunnan. The seismicity of strong earthquakes in east Yunnan is closely related to that in Sichuan. Strong earthquakes in Sichuan often occur later than those in Yunnan. Furthermore, in the east part of Ynnnan, the three procedures including continuous occurrence of moderate-strong earthquake, quiescent period, and the occurrence of the first strong earthquake may be the style of the beginning of the earthquake active period. The above cognition is helpful to the study of earthquake prediction, seismogenic mechanism, and the dynamics of the plate margin in Yunnan.

Study on Medium- and Long-term Strong Earthquake Risk Along the Zhangjiakou-Penglai Fault Zone

The Zhangjiakou-Penglai fault zone lies in the northern part of North China Plain and extends along the Zhangjiakou-Huailai-Sanhe-Tianjin-Bohai Sea-Penglai-Yantai-North Huanghai Sea line, it is about 900 km long and some 250-km wide in a northwest direction. The 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu M 8.0 and the 1976 Tangshan M7.8 earthquakes occurred in the fault zone. In this paper an analysis of Gutenberg- Richter’s empirical relation and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments of the fault zone separated by the 117°line indicates that they obey a Poison process and, hence, a calculation from it yields a cumulative probability of strong earthquake occurrence along the two segments before 2010, i. e. the probability of M6.0 earthquake occurrence is 0.80 along the eastern segment and the probability of M7. 0 earthquake occurrence is 0.76 along the western segment of the fault zone.

Anomalies of Precursory Group and Grouped Strong Earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.

The relationships between earthquakes and positions of the sun and moon（Ⅱ）——Sometemporalcharacteristicsoftheaftershocksequencesofstrongearthquakes

This paper deals with the distributive characteristics of the occurrence time of earthquakes with respect to the aftershock sequences of strong earthquakes. The distribution of lunar and solar local hour angles at the time of commencement of moderate and strong aftershocks indicates that the time of commencement of moderate and strong aftershocks is modulated by the positions of the sun and moon and then the earthquake restrained time zones exists also. In this paper the differences of earthquake restrained time zones between the preshock sequences and the aftershock sequences are compared, and the possible mechanism is analyzed preliminarily. And the possible maximum scope of accuracy in predicting the occurrence time of an earthquake is determined as well.

Research on the Characteristics and Repeatability of Strong Earthquake Activity in Sichuan-Yunnan

According to the method for predicting strong earthquakes using seismicity patterns,this paper summarizes the seismicity anomalies, generally called anomalous seismicity patterns,as the basis for prediction based on some historical data in the Sichuan-Yunnan seismic zone. Using our results,it can be confirmed that these anomaly patterns,which reflect the features of the late stage of strong earthquake preparation process and stress release in the main shock rupture zone,did exist before many earthquake cases. This paper also introduced the characteristics of seismic repeatability and its validation result,and discussed the mechanism of repeatability,which will have an application value for strong earthquake tendency prediction.

Synthetic Model for Prediction Seismic Risk in About 10 Years

In this paper, the relation that strong earthquakes and seismo-geological conditions bear with precursory phenomena has been analyzed. The information content concerning the long-term (i.e., a decade) seismic risk that various precursors can provide has been estimated by using the quantitative judgment method. On such a basis, a synthetic probability model for predicting the strong earthquake risk in about 10 years has been suggested. With the northern part of North China used as the test region, the feasibility of the model which is used for medium-term to long-term prediction has been proved.

Study on Relation Between Dynamic Pattern of Regional Vertical Strain Rate and Several Strong Earthquakes such as Lijiang(M_s7.0)and Menyuan(M_s6.4)Earthquakes

Making use of the method of obtaining regional vertical strain rate from regional preciseleveling data and gaining dynamic pattern combining with deformation data on spanningfaults, the regional vertical strain dynamic evolution characteristics of several moderatelystrong earthquakes such as Lijiang (M_s 7.0) and Menyuan (M_s 6.4) earthquakes occurredin crustal deformation monitoring areas located in the western Yunnan and Qilianshan-Hexiregion. Based on the above-mentioned facts, by studying the time-space nonhomogeneity andstrain energy accumulation status, some criteria for judging the medium. and short-termstrong seismic risk regions according to the regional vertical strain rate dynamic informationare proposed.

对强震地形变监测预报方法的思考

简要回顾了中国地形变用于强震监测预报领域的发展过程及现状。对几次强震前得到的比较突出的地形变异常进行了分析,收集了大面积形变异常与强震中长期预测、地震前兆分布存在时间有序和空间配套,强震前发现巨幅形变异常,InSAR给出强震前地面垂向形变,强震前地倾斜异常,慢地震和预滑移等方面的研究成果。综合分析认为,强震前震中区附近存在与孕震体尺度相当的巨幅快速地面异常隆升。及时有效地捕捉强震前巨幅快速地面异常隆升的时间有序和空间配套的异常信息,可望针对人口稠密区域未来发生的强震给出具有减灾实效的预测预报意见,值得尝试。基于本研究提出了针对人口稠密的地震重点监视防御区开展高密度、大量程、低精度地倾斜观测的设想,并初步给出了观测方案、基本原理和数据计算处理方法。

中国地震预报论坛2024年度学术交流会议在海南海口召开

中国地震学会地震预报专业委员会和海南省地震局于2024年8月13—17日在海南省海口市联合举办了中国地震预报论坛2024年度学术交流大会,来自全国地震行业内、外17所大学(其中包含1所外籍大学)、7个科研院所与23个地震行业直属省市级分支机构共47个单位的130余名代表参加了此次会议。学术交流设置了13个专题;会前征集到论文近96篇,会期交流报告51个,其中口头报告26个,张贴展板25个;26个口头报告中,大会特邀报告7个,外籍专题邀请报告1个;从25个张贴报告中,评选出优秀报告6个,6位作者获得下一届年会的口头报告资格。兼顾会议代表的特殊条件,本次会议设置了1个小时的线上交流时间。大会邀请了3位专家分别针对首座跨越1605年7.5级地震活断层的大跨度桥梁抗震设防技术与海南火山活动监测技术开展相关科技培训;围绕“制约地震三要素的因素与地震三要素预报的瓶颈问题”举办了1.5小时的Panel讨论;组织了为期一天的“跨越1605年海南7.5级地震断裂带的建筑抗震设防技术与海南火山活动监测技术的野外科普培训”。越来越多的行业外专家带来了不同视角的科研成果,丰富的前沿性学术交流提升了对地震过程物理机制的认识,跨越活断层建筑设施的精湛抗震设防技术的现场观摩学习增强了年轻学子对地震科技行业的自豪感。

区域选取对图像信息法可预测性的影响

图像信息(PI)法是一种基于统计物理学的地震预测方法,因其对中长期地震预测有较好的效果已在国内外广泛应用。PI方法在计算过程中对选取区域的所有网格参量进行了归一化,因此不同的区域选取会产生PI热点结果的变化。本文基于中国地震台网中心自1970年以来的全国M_(S)≥3.0地震目录,采用5年尺度的“异常学习时段”和“预测时间窗”以及1年尺度的滑动时间步长,以南北地震带2016年以来发生的M_(S)≥6.0地震的回溯性预测检验为例,研究了不同空间范围的选取对PI方法地震预测效能的影响。地震预测效能检验采用R值评分法和受试者工作特征(ROC)检验方法。结果显示:①在其它计算参数相同的情况下,不同的区域选取对PI预测结果有较大影响;②利用R值评分和ROC检验方法对不同研究区的预测效能进行评估时,区域内部地震活动性差异小的区域预测效果较好,而对于地震活动性存在较大差异的区域,地震活动性高的区域内发生的地震更容易被预测,推测导致这一结果的可能原因是地震活动性较强的区域出现的异常更显著,而算法里的归一化过程会抑制地震活动性较低区域出现的异常,从而造成漏报;③对于具体的目标地震,震中附近的PI热点图像会经历演化,因此利用PI方法向前预测时要结合多个时间窗口进行综合预测;④不同于其它天然构造地震的热点演化趋势,2019年四川长宁M_(S)6.0地震和2021年四川泸县M_(S)6.0地震震中附近热点反复出现、消失,可能与人工活动有关;⑤滇西南地区、海原断裂中东部附近、小江断裂中部地区、龙门山断裂南部和小江断裂东北部地区存在持续出现的PI热点,这些区域为值得关注的M_(S)≥6.0地震发震区域。

Seismic characteristics near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province and its implication

In this paper, we calculated the seismic pattern of instrumental recorded small and moderate earthquakes near the epicenter of the 1303 Hongtong M=8 earthquake, Shanxi Province. According to the spatial distribution of small and moderate earthquakes, 6 seismic dense zones are delineated. Temporal distribution of ML2 earthquakes since 1970 in each seismic dense zone has been analyzed. Based on temporal distribution characteristics and historical earthquake activity, three types of seismicities are proposed. The relationship between seismic types and crustal medium is analyzed. The mechanism of three types is discussed. Finity of strong earthquake recurrence is pro-posed. Seismic hazard in mid-long term and diversity of earthquake disaster in Shanxi seismic belt are discussed.

强震临震微波动现象跟踪实践

为验证和检验强震临震微波动现象及其主要特征,利用甘肃、青海、四川、云南、西藏等区域台网200余个宽频带数字地震台站的实时波形资料和实时跟踪监控技术系统,对2019—2022年间青藏高原发生的44次5级以上地震进行全程实时跟踪及动态监控,进一步检验临震微波动现象的重现性和客观性,验证了临震微波动现象的频谱、时间、空间等特征。

CSEP-CN:Parameter Optimization of Pattern Informatics Method

Since the establishment of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability,China(CSEP-CN)center,no comprehensive study has been conducted on the parameter models of the Pattern Informatics(PI)method within the China Seismic Experimental Site(CSES)region.Additionally,the boundary issues of the study area have been a subject of ongoing debate.Tian et al.(2024)indicates that variations in seismic activity within the region impact the predictive efficacy of the PI method.