THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THEIR PARAMETERIZATIONS ON FORECAST OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CHINA IN ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON

An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.

APPLICATION EXPERIMENT OF ASSIMILATING RADAR-RETRIEVED WATER VAPOR IN SHORT-RANGE FORECAST OF RAINFALL IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON OVER SOUTH CHINA

A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor on short-term precipitation forecast, three parallel experiments, cold start, hot start and hot start plus the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor, are designed to simulate the 31 days of May, 2013 with a fine numerical model for South China. Furthermore, a case of heavy rain that occurred from 8-9 May 2013 over the region from the southwest of Guangdong province to Pearl River Delta is analyzed in detail. Results show that the cold start experiment is not conducive to precipitation 12 hours ahead; the hot start experiment is able to reproduce well the first6 hours of precipitation, but badly for subsequent prediction; the experiment of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is not only able to simulate well the precipitation 6 hours ahead, but also able to correctly predict the evolution of rain bands from 6 to 12 hours in advance.

INFLUENCES OF LOW-FREQUENCY MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION ON LOW FREQUENCY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON OF SOUTH CHINA IN 2010

85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China,and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed.The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.The rainfall is more(interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak(valley) phase,and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase.The 10-20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30-60 d.The10-20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S,the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island(the southwest source),and the equatorial middle Pacific region(the southeast source),and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels.By using the characteristics of 10-20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation,the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.

ANALYSES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION CHARACTERISTICS OF FLOOD-CAUSING RAINSTORMS IN XIJIANG RIVER VALLEY DURING THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON IN THE PAST YEARS

Based on the daily precipitation data of nine stations representing the Xijiang River valley and the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) reanalysis data, this study uses the wavelet analysis and band-pass filter methods to investigate the atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation characteristics of flood-causing rainstorms in the valley during the annually first raining seasons in 1968, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2005. Results show that the daily precipitation in the valley exhibits significant quasi-biweekly (10 to 20 days) oscillations. The flood-causing rainstorms in the valley were mainly associated with the confluence of low-frequency warm and humid airflow in the lower latitudes and cold and dry airflow in the higher latitudes. The low-frequency vortexes were propagating or in control when this type of rainstorms took place over the valley, being favorable for the convergence of moisture at lower levels and thus vital to the formation of the rainstorms.

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DECADAL VARIATIONS OF ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON PRECIPITATION OF GUANGXI AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF INDIAN OCEAN IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

Decadal circulation differences between more and less rainfall periods in the annually first rainy season of Guangxi and their association with sea surface temperature (SST) of the austral Indian Ocean are investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results are shown as follows. A pattern in which there is uniform change of the Guangxi precipitation shows a 20-year decadal oscillation and a 3-year interannual change. In contrast, a pattern of reversed-phase change between the north and the south of Guangxi has a 6-year interannual periodicity and quasi-biennial oscillation. In the period of more precipitation, the surface temperature in Eurasia is positively anomalous so as to lead to stronger low pressure systems on land and larger thermal contrast between land and ocean. Therefore, the air column is more unstable and ascending flows over Guangxi are intensified while the Hadley cell is weakened. Furthermore, the weaker western Pacific subtropical high and South Asia High, together with a stronger cross-equatorial flow, result in the transportation of more humidity and the appearance of more precipitation. The correlation analysis indicates that the Indian Ocean SST in Southern Hemisphere is closely associated with the variation of the seasonal precipitation of Guangxi on the decadal scale by influencing the Asian monsoon through the cross-equatorial flow.

Early endotracheal intubation is not associated with the rate of return of spontaneous circulation following cardiac arrest at the emergency department:an exploratory analysis

Cardiac arrest poses a significant global public health challenge,manifesting in approximately 550,000 cases annually within the United States.[1]In-hospital cardiac arrest(IHCA)is commonly attributed to airways and respiratory issues.[2]Recommendations emphasize the expertise of responders in airway management.[3]Various options exist,such as chest compression-only cardiopulmonary resuscitation(CPR),bag-mask ventilation(BMV),and advanced airways.The BMV and advanced airways are not deemed equivalent or superior based on previous evidence.[4]Achieving consistency in choosing and timing the optimal airway approach during IHCA is crucial.The current American Heart Association guidelines suggest an advanced airway strategy when endotracheal intubation(ETI)success rates are high,but the optimal time for advanced airway management remains unclear.[5]Wong et al[6]revealed that survival improved by less than 5 min with advanced airway management.According to a subgroup analysis of IHCA patients in emergency departments(EDs),early intubation was associated with a 1.5-fold greater rate of return of spontaneous circulation(ROSC)than in other locations.[7]ED patients’constant monitoring and immediate management,with readily available intubation equipment,enhance early intubation and survival rates.[6]Nonetheless,IHCA patients intubated within the first 15 min had a lower ROSC rate.

Mediating effect of resilience on the relationship between rumination and suicide attempts in Chinese adolescents with mood disorders

To the editor:Mood disorders(MD)are serious mental illnesses that commonly affect adolescents,leading to a high incidence of suicidal behaviour.1 In China,the suicide attempt(SA)rate for adolescents with MD is 51.96%,2 and over 500000 adolescent SA are reported annually in the USA due to depression.3 Risk factors for SA include gender,hormone levels,family conflict and,particularly,negative cognitive styles such as rumination.

Current and future trends in whole genome sequencing in cancer

Cancer remains a formidable global health challenge affecting millions of lives annually.For decades,conventional cancer treatments used a one-size-fits-all approach,overlooking the intricate genetic variations that drive tumors.The emergence of cancer genomics has ushered in a new era of personalized and targeted cancer therapies.The Human Genome Project,which was launched in 1990 and completed in 2003。

AGRIS

AGRIS(The Agricultural Sciences and Technology)is a booklist-style international agricultural database which is established by the international agricultural technology information system subordinate to FAO.It embodies continued publications,documents,corpuses,books,technology reports,patents,maps,meeting papers,and other literatures,which are collected by 135 countries and regions,146 branches of AGRIS,and 22 international organizations.Its content comprises all the agricultural fields in the world,as well as forestry,economy,aquatic sciences,fishery,human dietetics,and so on.This database is an international intelligence communication system maintained by FAO,which updates quarterly and increases by 0.13 million records annually,with large data amount.

AGRIS

AGRIS(The Agricultural Sciences and Technology)is a booklist-style international agricultural database which is established by the international agricultural technology information system subordinate to FAO.It embodies continued publications,documents,corpuses,books,technology reports,patents,maps,meeting papers,and other literatures,which are collected by 135 countries and regions,146 branches of AGRIS,and 22 international organizations.Its content comprises all the agricultural fields in the world,as well as forestry,economy,aquatic sciences,fishery,human dietetics,and so on.This database is an international intelligence communication system maintained by FAO,which updates quarterly and increases by 0.13 million records annually,with large data amount.

Chinese-Style Modernization is the Path to Peaceful Development

Achieving modernization is a universal pursuit that requires exploring unique national paths.Through years of experience,the CPC has united China behind a distinct model focused on people-centered development,cultural enrichment,environmental harmony,and peaceful growth.This commitment to peaceful development shapes China’s approach to foreign affairs.China does not seek hegemony or confrontation.Its defense policy remains defensive and its military spending modest.While some portray China’s emergence as aggressive,the facts tell a different story.China’s 2021 defense budget was just 1.3%of its GDP,far below the global average.Meanwhile,U.S.military spending exceeds$800 billion annually and reaches 3.5%of its GDP.

Editors’Note

The JOURNAL OF ANCIENT CIVILIZATIONS(JAC)is published annually in two fascicles by the Institute for the History of Ancient Civilizations(IHAC,Northeast Normal University,Changchun,Jilin Province,People’s Republic of China).

The relationship between ferroptosis and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)is a kind of metabolic disorder characterized by excessive fat deposition in the liver and ranging from simple steatosis(simple NAFLD)to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis(NASH),cirrhosis,and hepatocellular carcinoma[1].It has recently been increasing annually;for example,it was recently estimated to have a global prevalence of 32.4%,which seriously threatens human health[2].Thus,the discovery of new therapeutic targets is of great importance because there is no specified drug for the treatment of NAFLD.On the other hand,the pathogenesis of NAFLD is complicated and still unclear.Recent studies have proposed ferroptosis as related to the disease progressions of NAFLD.Preliminary evidence indicated that ferroptosis in hepatocytes and hepatic macrophages could induce NASH and that complex regulatory mechanisms were involved.In the future,inhibition of ferroptosis may hopefully become an emerging target in treating NAFLD.

Chinese Travellers Help Tourism Regain Its Feet

Egypt seeks to attract 3 million Chinese tourists annually by 2028 as part of the country’s ambitious strategy to increase its share in the Chinese tourism market,Egyptian Minister of Tourism and Antiquities Ahmed Issa said on 6 December 2023.

Overcoming the biofilm barrier by cell-like microbubbles for the treatment of biofilm-associated implant infections

Although the advent of antibiotics has significantly improved the quality of life of infected patients,bacterial infections continue to pose a serious threat to public health[1,2].According to a recent report,within the next 30 years,bacterial infections are projected to surpass cancer in terms of lethality rates,resulting in an alarming 10 million deaths annually by 2050 due to the development of bacterial resistance[3].Moreover,the formation of bacterial biofilms hampers the penetration of antibacterial agents and inhibits the host immune response,making biofilm infections extremely challenging to treat[4-7].Hence,the development of innovative antimicrobial biofilm therapeutics is imperative.

mRNA vaccine:a new generation of technology revolution in biomedicine

Vaccination has played a crucial role in combating infectious diseases for human and has made significant contributions to global public health.Successful vaccination has eradicated many life-threatening diseases,such as smallpox and polio[1].The World Health Organization estimates that vaccines can prevent 2–3 million deaths from tetanus,pertussis,influenza,and measles annually.

Towards A Malaria-Free Future Eleven African countries join hands to put an end to the deaths caused by malaria by#$%$

Malaria is a fatal disease transmitted by certain species of mosquitos,causing over 600,000 deaths annually,mainly in Africa,according to the World Health Organisation(WHO).At a ministerial conference held in Yaoundé,capital of Cameroon,representatives from 11 out of the 12 nations most severely impacted by the disease,including Ghana,Mali,Mozambique,and the Democratic Republic of the Congo,vowed to reduce malaria-related mortality by at least 90 percent compared to 2015 levels.

Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ warming

With the support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China,the research team led by Prof.Jiang Tong(姜彤)at the Institute for Disaster Risk Management/School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,uncovered the increase of heat-related mortality in China metropolises for 2℃ global warming compared with 1.5℃ level,which was published in Nature Communications(2019,10:3376).

Annual variation of adult survival of a south-temperate House Wren population in Argentina

Identifying factors affecting the survival of individuals is essential for understanding the evolution of life-history traits and population dynamics.Despite numerous studies on this subject in north-temperate environments,there is a lack of equivalent studies at similar latitudes in the south.Here,we used a 14-year dataset of capture,banding,and resighting to estimate the annual variation in the apparent adult survival probability of a south-temperate population of House Wrens(Troglodytes aedon bonariae).We evaluated temporal variation in sur-vival and the effect of environmental(climatic)and demographic variables(adult abundance,total number of fledglings produced during each breeding season)on survival estimators.We found that the probability of adult survival decreased as the abundance of breeding adults increased.This density-dependent effect could be related to the resident lifestyle of southern House Wrens,which could determine an intense competition for territories and resources that ultimately would affect their survival.

Interpreting Larix principis-rupprechtii radial growth in northern China based on the Vaganov-Shashkin model

Changes in annual radial growth is an important indication of climate change. Dendroclimatology studies in northern China have focused on linear statistical analysis,but lacking studies based on the process of ring formation to clarify the radial growth of trees. Tree-ring width standard chronology(STD) was established using samples of Larix principis-rupprechtii collected at 2303 m altitude on Luya Mountain. Using the Vaganov-Shashkin(VS) model to simulate growth and development, the internal physiological mechanism of radial growth is identified. It was concluded that:(1) the growing season of L. principis-rupprechtii was May to September;(2) soil moisture was a significant factor in the early and late growing seasons, and temperature was the dominant factor in its main growth period;and(3) formation of narrow ring widths was closely related to drought stress, the development of wide ring widths will be restricted by increasing future temperatures. The VS model is applicable for radial growth simulation of subalpine coniferous forests and for guiding the cultivation of local tree species in the future.