INTERANNUAL VARIATION IN HEAT CONTENT OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL AND ITS EFFECT ON EASTERN ASIAN CLIMATE ANOMALIES

Using the 1980-2010 winter GODAS oceanic assimilations, study is conducted of the winter heat content(HC) established in the subsurface layer(5 to 366 m in depth) over the western Pacific warm pool(WP), followed by investigating the HC spatiotemporal characteristics, persistence and the impacts on the climate anomalies of neighboring regions. Results are as follows: 1) the pattern of integral consistency is uncovered by the leading EOF1(PC1) mode of HC interannual variability, the year-to-year fluctuation of the time coefficients being well indicative of the interannual anomaly of the WP winter subsurface-layer thermal regime. The HC variation is bound up with El Ni觡o-Southern Oscillation, keeping pronounced autocorrelation during the following two seasons and more, with the persistence being more stable in comparison to sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial middle eastern Pacific; 2) the winter HC anomalies produce lasting effect on the WP thermal state in the following spring and summer and corresponding changes in the warm water volume lead to the meridional transport and vertical exchange of warm water, which exerts greater impacts upon the sea surface temperature/heat flux over the warm pool per se and neighboring regions, especially in the Philippine Sea during the posterior spring and summer; 3) the increase in the winter HC corresponds to the spring outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) decrease and richer precipitation over the waters east to the Philippine Sea and the resultant convective heating anomalies are responsible for the rise of geopotential isobaric surfaces over tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, thereby producing effect on the western Pacific subtropical high(anomaly). Subsequently, the sea-surface heat flux exchange is intensified in the warm pool, a robust anomalous cyclone shows up at lower levels, air-sea interactions are enhanced and abnormal convective heating occurs, together making the winter HC anomalies even more closely associated with the variation in the summer subtropical high. As a result, the WP winter HC can be used as an effective predictor of the variation in spring/summer western Pacific subtropical high and the strength of summer monsoon over the northwestern Pacific.

Variation of Air-Sea Heat Fluxes over the Western Pacific Warm Pool Area and Its Relationship with the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Based on oceanic and atmospheric parameters retrieved by satellite remote sensing using a neural network method, air-sea heat fluxes over the western Pacific warm pool area were calculated with the advanced the advanced Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment 3.0 (COARE3.0) bulk algorithm method. Then, the average annual and interannual characteristics of these fluxes were analyzed. The rela- tionship between the fluxes and the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset is highlighted. The results indicate that these fluxes have clear temporal and spatial characteristics. The sensible heat flux is at its maximum in the Kuroshio area, while the latent heat flux is at its maximum in the North Equatorial Current and Kuroshio area. The distribution of average annual air-sea heat fluxes shows that both sensible and latent heat fluxes are maximized in winter and minimized in summer. The air-sea heat fluxes have obvious interannual variations. Correlation analysis indicates a close lag-correlation between air-sea heat fluxes in the western Pacific warm pool area and at the SCS summer monsoon onset. The lagcorrelation can therefore predict the SCS summer monsoon onset, providing a reference for the study of precipitation related to the monsoon.

A preliminary study on an upper ocean heat and salt content of the western Pacific warm pool region

On the basis of Argo profile data of the temperature and salinity from January 2001 to July 2014, the spatial distributions of an upper ocean heat content(OHC) and ocean salt content(OSC) of the western Pacific warm pool(WPWP) region and their seasonal and interannual variations are studied by a cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function(CSEOF) decomposition, a maximum entropy spectral analysis, and a correlation analysis.Probable reasons for variations are discussed. The results show the following.(1) The OHC variations in the subsurface layer of the WPWP are much greater than those in the surface layer. On the contrary, the OSC variations are mainly in the surface layer, while the subsurface layer varies little.(2) Compared with the OSC, the OHC of the WPWP region is more affected by El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events. The CSEOF analysis shows that the OHC pattern in mode 1 has strong interannual oscillation, with eastern and western parts opposite in phase. The distribution of the OSC has a positive-negative-positive tripole pattern. Time series analysis shows that the OHC has three phase adjustments with the occurrence of ENSO events after 2007, while the OSC only had one such adjustment during the same period. Further analysis indicates that the OHC variations are mainly caused by ENSO events, local winds, and zonal currents, whereas the OSC variations are caused by much more complex reasons. Two of these, the zonal current and a freshwater flux, have a positive feedback on the OSC change in the WPWP region.

A numerical study of the impact of SST anomaly in the warm pool area on atmospheric circulation in winter

In this paper the impacts of the anomalous SST in the warm pool area of the Western Equatorial Pacific on the winter time circulation and the East Asian monsoon are studied by using the NCAR CCM. It is found that the abnormal heating in the warm pool area will change the strength and the position of the Walker Cell in the Equatorial Pacific and the anti-Walker Cell in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Both the Walker and anti-Walker Cells are strengthened. The local Hadley Cells over two hemispheres near the warm pool are also strengthened. The subtropical highs in two hemispheres become stronger and move poleward slightly. The westerly jets in the extratropical regions have similar changes as the subtropical highs. The winter monsoon in South-East Asia is weakened by the abnormal heating in the warm pool. The experiment also show that there are wave trains emanating from surrounding areas of the warm pool to the high latitudes, causing various changes in circulations and local weather.

INFLUENCE OF HEAT CONTENT ANOMALY IN THE TROPICAL WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL REGION ON ONSET OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON

Based on the Scripps/NODC Joint Environmental Data Analysis Center's data of heat content in upper ocean (1955--1998) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the relationship between the heat content anomalies in the warm pool area of the western Pacific (WP) and onset of South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSM) is examined.The results show that the warm pool area (WP) is the place where heat content in the tropical upper layer changes with maximum range and which is most obviously influential to South China Sea summer monsoon.Onset of SCSM is very closely related to the heat content anomaly during the previous period (previous winter and spring) of the WP so that the heat content of March to April in the WP area is a very good predictor for onset of SCSM.When the heat content of the WP area is positive,convection center will be located in the South China Sea-western Pacific with strong convection,a positive anomaly of monsoon circulation and Walker circulation will take place and the subtropical high will be weaker and farther east. Positive anomalous monsoon circulation and Walker circulation will be favorable for westerly and southwesterly flows-SCSM breaks off earlier than normal.Otherwise,SCSM comes later than usual.Large-scale anomalous change of monsoon circulation and Walker circulation seems one of the important mechanisms to influence SCSM.

An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

在现在的纸，在发作和热在西方的太平洋在温暖的水池的上面的层满足的华南海夏天季风( SCSSM )之间的关联为时期用海洋学数据集的 Scripps 机构被检验 1955 1998 并且预言的一条途径 SCSSM 发作被建议。关联嘘在那里欠那存在内部 SCSSM 发作的十的可变性温暖的水池而非在它的中心附近的中心向西在区域与最大的关联系数在 1970 界定，从另外的因素暗示某些效果而且包含了 ENSO。因为关联为在 1970 前的时期是差的，在 1970 以后的温暖的水池的热内容异例被用来预先显示 SCSSM 的早或迟了的发作。一个理想的代表性的区域(为温暖的水池热内容的 1 °× 1 °) 在 3 ° N /138 ° E 与它的中心被决定。系在到中心的最近的道(道热带的空气海洋数组) 在 2 ° N /137 ° E，并且选择为预言计算热内容。在 2 ° N /137 ° E 的 TAO 绳索能被用来在上面的层与热内容预言 SCSSM 发作，这被建议，如果在 SCSSM 发作和温暖的水池的热内容之间的关联象的一样跑在 1970 以后。在另一方面，如果状况做，在 1970 前喜欢，代表性的车站与相对差的关联在 13 ° S /74 ° E 被决定，意味着在西方的太平洋的温暖的水池比印度洋在 SCSSM 发作起更多的重要作用。

Role of Western Pacific Oceanic Variability in the Onset of the Bay of Bengal Summer Monsoon

The influence of the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean heat content on the onset of the Bay of Bengal summer monsoon （BOBSM） onset was investigated using atmospheric data from the NCEP and ocean subsurface temperature data from the Japan Metorology Agency （JMA）. Results showed that the onset time of the BOBSM is highly related to the tropical Pacific upper ocean heat content （HC）, especially in the key region of the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP）, during the preceding winter and spring. When the HC anomalies in the WPWP are positive （negative）, the onset of the BOBSM is usually early （late）. Accompanied by the variation of the convection activity over the WPWP, mainly induced by the underlying ocean temperature anomalies, the Walker circulation becomes stronger or weaker. This enhances or weakens the westerly over the tropical Indian Ocean flowing into the BOB in the boreal spring, which is essential to BOBSM onset. The possible mechanism of influence of cyclonic/anti-cyclonic circulation over the northwestern tropical Pacific on BOBSM onset is also discussed.

夏热冬暖地区双热泵型泳池专用空调机组的适用性分析

为了验证双热泵型泳池专用空调机组在夏热冬暖地区的适用性,通过热湿负荷及空气处理过程计算,对福州市某游泳馆全年热湿负荷特征进行分析,结果表明:采用双热泵型泳池专用空调机组,可以较好地解决冬季供热不足的问题,冬季及室外含湿量较低的过渡季节,通过控制新风比使两套制冷循环均转化为制热循环时,机组提供的热量不仅可以满足空调系统所需的热量,还有富余的热量给池水加热,显著减少辅助热源的容量,减少电耗。

西太平洋暖池热含量年际变化及其对东亚气候异常的影响

利用1980-2010年共31个冬季的GODAS海洋同化资料，以5～366m次表层海温构造西太平洋暖池区域的热含量，分析了冬季西太平洋暖池次表层热含量的时空特征、持续性以及对其邻近区域的气候异常影响，结果表明：（1）整体一致性分布是冬季西太暖池区次表层热含量年际变化的主导模态，其时间系数的年际振荡较好地代表了暖池区次表层热状况的年际异常。暖池区热含量的变化与ENSO事件联系密切，它能保持超前两季以上的显著自相关，持续性较赤道中东太平洋海温异常更为稳定。佗）冬季暖池区热含量异常对后期春、夏季暖池热状况产生持续影响，相应的暖水体积变化导致暖水的经向输送及垂直交换，对后期春夏两季暖池及邻近区域尤其是菲律宾海的表层海温、海表热通量变化有较大影响。（3）冬季暖池区热含量上升对应春季菲律宾海以东洋面OLR数值下降以及降水偏多，所引起的对流活动加热异常导致热带及副热带西北太平洋位势等压面抬升，进而对西太副高产生影响。之后，此区域相应的海表热通量交换加强，对流层低层形成强大的异常气旋，海气相互作用加强，加上对流加热异常，使得冬季暖池热含量异常与夏季副热带高压变化联系更加紧密。因此冬季暖池区热含量可作为春、夏季西太副高变化和西北太平洋夏季风强度的有效预测因子。

南海夏季风爆发与西太平洋暖池区热含量及对流异常

利用1955～1998年逐月的上层海洋热含量资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了南海夏季风爆发与热带西太平洋暖池区热含量异常的关系,并对影响过程进行了探讨。结果表明:(1)热带西太平洋暖池区是热带上层海洋热含量变化最大的区域,暖池区的热含量的变化与ENSO关系密切,是ENSO循环的重要组成部分,也是影响南海夏季风爆发最明显的地区。(2)南海夏季风爆发与前期(特别是前期冬、春季)暖池热状态的变化有密切关系,当前期暖池热含量高时,南海夏季风爆发早,反之爆发晚,这与由暖池变化所产生的上空大气的对流活动密切相关;4月暖池区热含量高(低)是预报南海夏季风爆发早(晚)的一个很好指标。(3)西太平洋暖池区热含量正异常时,辐散中心位于南海—西太平洋,对流强,西太副高弱且位置偏东,季风环流(印度洋纬向环流和经向环流)和Walker环流为正距平环流;正距平的季风环流有利于低空西到西南气流的加强,南海夏季风爆发早,反之爆发晚。由暖池变化所引起的大尺度季风环流和Walker环流的异常变化可能是影响南海夏季风爆发的一个重要动力机制。

西太平洋暖池区热含量和海表温度与江南春雨的相关性对比研究

利用Scripps和GODAS(Global Ocean Data Assimilation System)月平均海温资料,NOAA(National Oceanicand Atmospheric Administration)提供的逐月扩展重建海表温度资料以及中国气象局气象信息中心提供的中国753站逐日降水资料,分析了江南春雨的时空分布特征,通过SVD(Singular Value Decomposition)、时滞相关方法从预报的角度对西太平洋暖池区海表温度和热含量与江南春雨的关系进行对比分析。结果表明:近50 a江南春雨空间分布的主要模态为全区一致型分布,其次为南北反向型,第三模态表现为东西反向型;西太平洋暖池区热含量与江南春雨强度的关系比海表温度更为密切,从相关区域的集中性、稳定性及相关显著性和预报超前性等方面综合考虑,推荐将热含量作为预报江南春雨的首要因子。热含量影响江南春雨的敏感海区位于4°N^16°N,130°E^170°E,预报关键时段为前一年7~12月。

前期西太平洋暖池热含量异常影响长江中下游夏季降水的可能途经

利用日本气象厅历史海温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、海表温度和降水资料,研究了1951—2010年前期西太平洋暖池（简称暖池）热含量异常与长江中下游夏季降水的关系,及其可能影响途径.结果表明,前期暖池热含量与长江中下游夏季降水存在超前2个季节的显著负相关关系,前期11—1月（即上年11月—当年1月,下同）暖池关键区（166.5°E—173.5°W,7.5°S—3.5°N）0~200 m热含量的偏低（高）对长江中下游夏季降水偏多（少）的预测有重要指示意义.前期暖池热含量异常的持续存在,及其外强迫作用激发的具有一定斜压性结构的夏季东亚—太平洋型遥相关（EAP）,可能是影响长江中下游夏季降水的主要原因.暖池热含量在前期11—1月异常偏低导致其西北侧菲律宾异常反气旋形成并维持,夏季菲律宾异常反气旋向西北方向扩展加强,东亚沿岸EAP波列形成,使得长江中下游及其以东的西北太平洋副热带地区受异常气旋控制,且长江中下游地区为北方冷空气与南方暖湿气流的交汇区.同时,对流层高层东亚沿岸亦存在位置较中低层向西北偏移的EAP波列,长江中下游及其以南地区为异常偏强高压,高层辐散与中低层辐合相配合,有利于长江中下游地区对流发展和降水增多;反之亦然.

热带西太平洋暖池表层热含量分析

利用１９６１ ～１９９７ 年的资料，对热带西太平洋暖池的热含量进行了分析，并探讨了暖池热含量变化与南方涛动的关系。结果表明：暖池热含量具有明显的季节和年际变化；暖池全域、西部（１６０°Ｅ以西部分） 和东部（１８０°Ｅ以东部分） 热含量的年际变化存在较明显的差异；暖池全域和暖池东部热含量与南方涛动存在着负相关，暖池西部热含量与南方涛动则为正相关。

夏季西太平洋暖池热含量对华西秋雨的影响及可能的物理机制

利用1971—2012年气象台站逐日资料,综合考虑降水量、降水日数及日照时数计算华西秋雨强度,结合不同深度海温资料,研究了华西秋雨强度与夏季西太平洋暖池热含量年际变化的联系,并讨论了其可能的物理机制。结果表明,前期夏季西太平洋暖池关键区(5°S—5°N,130°—160°E)热含量变化与华西秋雨强度有显著正相关关系,当前期关键区热含量偏高(低)时,华西秋雨强度较强(弱)。分析发现,当前期关键区热含量偏高时,其相对大气是一个异常热源,由于大气对其的响应,在热含量关键区西北侧中国南海—中南半岛附近生成了异常气旋式环流,其偏东偏南气流有利于向华西地区输送中低纬度洋面上大量暖湿水汽,并与北方的干冷空气在此交汇,同时,高层西风急流异常西伸,华西地区恰好位于急流入口区右侧的辐散区,这种高、低层有利的耦合形势使得秋雨偏强,反之亦然。

前期夏季西太平洋暖池热含量对江南春雨的影响及其可能机理

利用GODAS海洋温度资料、中国753站逐日降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料讨论了前期夏季西太平洋暖池热含量异常对江南春雨的影响，并通过高低层环流异常解释了其可能过程和机制。研究结果表明：（1）前期夏季暖池区热含量影响春雨的敏感海区位于9°～16°N，150°～166°E，与春雨强度呈显著反相关，前期夏季关键区热含量的显著偏低是春雨异常偏多的强信号。（2）多雨年和少雨年大气环流差值场与夏季暖池热含量（取反号）回归的次年春季大气环流形态基本一致。低层菲律宾海异常反气旋西北侧的暖湿西南气流输送及江南地区高层辐散抽吸运动是造成春雨偏多的直接原因。（3）关键区热含量在前期夏季的异常偏低使低层异常反气旋在其西北侧触发生成，并在菲律宾海附近持续存在（前夏至当年春季），春季引导强盛的西南气流向江南输送水汽；同时，热含量异常偏低在我国大陆东部激发出高层异常气旋并持续维持（前秋至当年春季），导致春季西风急流轴异常南压，高层形成异常辐散中心，形成强烈的抽吸作用，导致江南春雨显著偏多。前夏热含量显著偏高引起江南春雨偏少的过程则与之相反。

前期西太平洋暖池热含量异常对中国东北地区夏季降水的影响

利用日本气象厅历史海温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、哈得来环流中心海表温度资料和降水资料,研究了1951—2010年中国东北地区夏季降水与前期西太平洋暖池(简称暖池)热含量异常的关系,并对可能影响途径进行了探讨。结果表明,中国东北地区夏季降水与前期暖池热含量有密切的负相关,前期10—11月暖池关键区(15.5°—20.5°N,125.5°—135.5°E)0—200 m热含量高(低)是预报中国东北地区夏季旱(涝)的一个很好的指标。前期暖池热含量异常激发的夏季东亚-太平洋型遥相关(EAP)和中纬度高层沿亚洲西风急流东传波列的存在,可能是影响中国东北地区夏季降水的主要原因。当前期10-11月暖池区热含量为负异常时,菲律宾反气旋异常持续存在,夏季东亚-太平洋遥相关型出现,导致西太平洋副热带高压西伸加强,中国东北地区局地异常低气压和鄂霍次克海阻塞高压形成。同时,高空存在沿西风急流传播的遥相关波列,使得中国东北地区局地异常低气压和西太平洋副热带高压在日本附近增强,有利于中国东北地区夏季降水偏多;反之亦然。

江南雨季降水与前期西太平洋暖池热含量异常的关系及其可能机制

利用日本气象厅提供的历史海温资料、Hadley环流中心逐月海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,简称SST)资料、美国NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及江南地区逐旬降水资料,研究江南地区4—6月(江南雨季,亦泛称为华南前汛期)降水与前期暖池热含量异常的关系,并对可能的影响机制进行分析。研究结果表明,前期暖池热含量与江南雨季降水有密切的负相关关系,前期7—8月暖池关键区(130. 5°～150. 5°E,3. 5°～11. 5°N)热含量高(低)可以作为预报江南雨季旱(涝)的一个很好的指标。前期暖池热含量异常对4—6月环流和降水有重要影响。冷水年,菲律宾异常反气旋导致副高西伸加强,显著加强了其西侧暖湿气流向江南地区输送,高层辐散抽吸作用导致江南地区对流上升运动增强,暖水年相反,表明冷(暖)水年江南雨季降水偏多(少)。就影响机制而言,在前期夏季,关键区南侧存在异常强西风,导致在秋末形成了菲律宾异常反气旋,以及关键区附近(东侧)有冷(暖)海表温度异常发展,在当年春季和夏初该反气旋移到菲律宾以北。直到4月,次表层冷水团上传导致冷SST异常维持并加强了该异常反气旋,其西侧西南暖湿气流将水汽从南海和菲律宾海地区源源不断地向江南地区输送。同时,西印度洋暖海温和赤道印度洋东风异常也逐渐发展增强,在热带印度洋形成东西向异常垂直环流,其下沉支始终在西太平洋维持,导致了菲律宾异常反气旋的维持,并进一步引起江南地区的水汽辐合和上升运动。同时,副热带西风急流轴南压引起的高空强辐散,也有利于上升运动和对流活动在江南地区发展。正是上述过程和机制,导致了前期热含量异常偏低(高)时,我国江南雨季降水偏多(少)。

西太平洋暖池热含量时频特征的区域性

根据 1 95 5— 1 999年间的JEDAC月平均海温资料 ,利用Morlet小波变换方法 ,对西太平洋暖池东、西代表区热含量的时 (间 ) -频 (率 )特征进行了分析 ,并用交叉谱分析方法探讨了两海区热含量间的耦合振荡。结果表明 ,暖池热含量的时频特征具有明显的区域性 ,即暖池东、西区热含量的年际和年代际变化都是反相的 ,且其年际变化的时频特征有较大差异 ;暖池东、西区热含量间主要存在着年际 ( 4 3个月 )和年代际 ( 1 72个月 )

海洋上层热含量的分布特征、变化模态及观测手段综述

综述了近20年来国内外在有关西太平洋暖池热含量、热带西太平洋上层热含量与西太平洋年际变化事件(ENSO)的关系、热带太平洋上层热含量变化的主要模态以及热含量估算等方面所取得的主要研究成果。研究表明:(1)热带西太平洋暖池区是太平洋上层热含量异常变化最大的区域,上层热含量异常影响了暖池上空的环流(如南海夏季风、副热带高压系统)特征,进而影响气候;(2)赤道西太平洋温跃层以浅的热含量在ENSO发生之前有明显的积聚,其变化明显领先于赤道东太平洋SSTA的变化,领先时间可达数月之久,从而使热含量与ENSO的相关性,以及利用热含量的变异对ENSO进行更长时间的预报成为可能;(3)西太平洋上层热含量存在纬向变异和经向变异两种模态,其中纬向变异模态占主导地位,且超前经向变异模态;(4)由于海洋深层资料难以获取,各种仪器本身存在系统误差,以及采用不同的计算方法,对海洋上层热结构分布与变异的研究受到了一定的限制。随着由3000多个浮标组成的全球Argo实时海洋观测网的建成,Argo数据库每年可以提供多达10万个剖面(0～2000m层)的温、盐数据。Argo资料与其它海洋资料的结合,有助于研究全球海洋温、盐度和海流场结构及其变化规律,准确估算逐月甚至逐年的全球海洋热含量及其季节和年际变化将成为现实。

西太平洋暖池区域热通量变化及其与南海夏季风爆发的关系

利用卫星遥感资料反演出的海洋大气参数,应用目前世界较为先进的通量算法(CORAER 3.0),计算了西太平洋区域海-气热通量(感热通量和潜热通量)。首先分析了海-气热通量的多年平均场和气候场变化的基本特征,以及年际和年代际变化特征;进而对其与南海夏季风爆发之间的关系进行了初步探讨。结果表明,西太平洋海-气热通量具有明显的时空分布特征,感热通量的最大值出现在黑潮区域,潜热通量的最大值出现在北赤道流区和黑潮区域。在气候平均场中,黑潮区域的感热通量和潜热通量最大值均出现在冬季,最小值出现在夏季;暖池区域感热通量除了春季较小外,冬、夏和秋季基本相同,而潜热通量最大值出现在秋、冬季,最小值出现在春、夏季。另外,海-气热通量还具有显著的年际变化和年代际变化,感热通量和潜热通量均存在16 a周期,与南海夏季风爆发存在相同的周期。由相关分析可知,4月份暖池区域的海-气热通量与滞后3 a的南海夏季风爆发之间存在密切相关关系,这种时滞相关性,可以用于进行南海夏季风爆发的预测,为我国汛期降水预报提供科学依据。基于以上结论,建立多元回归方程对2012年的南海夏季风爆发进行了预测,预测2012年南海夏季风爆发将偏晚1～2候左右。