It is estimated that $3.2 billion worth of ships was totally lost （2008-2013）. In addition, 1,788 ships were involved in MMA （major marine accidents） （2004-2008）. However, 70% of those accidents took place in on...It is estimated that $3.2 billion worth of ships was totally lost （2008-2013）. In addition, 1,788 ships were involved in MMA （major marine accidents） （2004-2008）. However, 70% of those accidents took place in only a quarter of the geographical areas. That is the focus of this study. Hurst＇s generalization of Einstein＇s formula for a random time series requires that MMA should cover a distance proportional to the square root of time. The Hurst exponent is derived from the ＂Rescaled Range Analysis＂ using MATLAB （2009）. The Hurst exponent is 0.50 for a random time series, and this was found to be the case for MMA, in tons of carrying capacity over time. However, considering the time series in relation to the 12 geographical areas, the Hurst exponent for 1,788 MMA was found to be 0.43, which is less than 0.50. This indicates that the time series, related to geographical area, is anti-persistent/non-random. The ships damaged in MMA totaled 27.55 million dwt, and 31% of that tonnage was damaged in the North Sea and Baltic area, 20% in the Mediterranean and Black Sea and 19% in the China Sea. These research findings challenge the assumptions who generally believe that MMA are random in relation to geography.展开更多
文摘It is estimated that $3.2 billion worth of ships was totally lost （2008-2013）. In addition, 1,788 ships were involved in MMA （major marine accidents） （2004-2008）. However, 70% of those accidents took place in only a quarter of the geographical areas. That is the focus of this study. Hurst＇s generalization of Einstein＇s formula for a random time series requires that MMA should cover a distance proportional to the square root of time. The Hurst exponent is derived from the ＂Rescaled Range Analysis＂ using MATLAB （2009）. The Hurst exponent is 0.50 for a random time series, and this was found to be the case for MMA, in tons of carrying capacity over time. However, considering the time series in relation to the 12 geographical areas, the Hurst exponent for 1,788 MMA was found to be 0.43, which is less than 0.50. This indicates that the time series, related to geographical area, is anti-persistent/non-random. The ships damaged in MMA totaled 27.55 million dwt, and 31% of that tonnage was damaged in the North Sea and Baltic area, 20% in the Mediterranean and Black Sea and 19% in the China Sea. These research findings challenge the assumptions who generally believe that MMA are random in relation to geography.
