Prediction of the flooding area of the northeastern Caspian Sea from satellite images

Studying the dynamic changes in the coastline of the northeastern Caspian Sea is significant since the level of the Caspian is unstable,and the coastline change can cause enormous damage to the ecology,economy,and population of the coastal part of Kazakhstan.In this work,we use remote sensing and Geographic Information System(GIS)technologies to study the changes in the coastline of the northeastern Caspian Sea and predict the extent of flooding with increasing water levels.The proposed methodology for creating dynamic maps can be used to monitor the coastline and forecast the extent of flooding in the area.As a result of this work,the main factors affecting changes in the coastline were identified.After analyzing the water level data from 1988 to 2019,it was revealed that the rise in water level was observed from 1980 to 1995.The maximum sea level rise was recorded at-26.04 m.After that,the sea level began to fall,and between 1996 and 2009,there were no significant changes;the water level fluctuated with an average of-27.18 m.Then,a map of the water level dynamics in the Caspian Sea from 1988 to 2019 was compiled.According to the dynamics map,water level rise and significant coastal retreat were revealed,especially in the northern part of the Caspian Sea and the northern and southern parts of Sora Kaydak.The method for predicting the estimated flooding area was described.As a result,based on a single map,the flooding area of the northeast coast was predicted.A comparative analysis of Landsat and SRTM data is presented.

Prediction of Coal Seam Methane Enriched Areas Using Seismic Data

All coal mine disasters are dynamic geological phenomenon and affected by many factors. However, locating the enriched areas of CSM (coal seam methane) may be the precondition for the successful prediction of such disasters. Traditional methods of investigating CSM enriched areas use limited data and only consider a few important factors. Their success rate is low and cannot meet practical needs. In this paper, an alternative method is proposed. The proce- dure is given as follows: 1) fracture attributes derived from azimuth variations of P-wave data in coal seams and wall rocks can be extracted; 2) AVO attributes, such as the intercept P and gradient G parameters can be extracted from different azimuths from 3D seismic data; 3) seismic cubes can be inverted and the relative attributes of imped- ance cubes can be extracted; 4) using a GIS platform, multi-source information can be obtained and analyzed; these include fracture attributes of coal seams and wall rocks, the thickness of coal seams, the distribution of faults and structures, the depth of coal seams, the inclination and exposure of coal seams and the coal rank. Through this processing procedure, methane enriched areas can be systematically detected.

Prediction of Hidden Granites in the Luziyuan Area of Yunnan Province and the Prospecting Direction

The Fe-Pb-Zn-Cu polymetallic deposits in the Luziyuan area, are of a sedimentary-reformed type related with magmatic hydrothermalism. Previous researches have suggested that the mineralization is closely related to the hidden granites, but little is known about these granites including their burial depth and scale, which has limited the establishment of prospecting models and the optimization of prospecting targets. Geophysical methods have a great exploration depth, and have played a unique role in the prediction of hidden granites. It is shown that granites have low density and high resistivity,

Metallogenic Prediction of the Peripheral Areas of the Xiyi Concealed Lead-Zinc Deposit in Baoshan City, Yunnan Province

The newly-discovered Xiyi lead-zinc deposit is a large deposit located in the north central Baoshan block of the southern Sanjiang metallogenic belt section, Southwest China.The surface of the deposit is mainly covered by eluvial-deluvial lateritic layer, without any mineralized outcrops. The main concealed orebody V3 is buffed in the depth of 300-500m. The orebodies are controlled by certain stratigraphic horizons, and most are cut by strata with a high angle, while a few occur along the strata. The direct wall rocks are calcisiltite, calclithite, bioclastic calcarenite,

Prediction of Potential Distribution of the Genus Cricotopus(Diptera:Chironomidae)Based on MaxEnt Model

The prediction of suitable area is a method for predicting the potential distribution by using the maximum entropy model.This study predicted the potential suitable habitats for the genus Cricotopus of Chironomidae in China.The latitude and longitude information of 98 distribution sites of Cricotopus in China and the biological environmental factors and altitude distribution in China were collected,and suitable habitats for Cricotopus were predicted,obtaining the suitable ranges and areas of Cricotopus in China,which is consistent with the known living conditions of Cricotopus.The study on the diversity of Cricotopus and the prediction of its suitable habitats provide a theoretical basis for Cricotopus in water monitoring and paddy fields,as well as basic data for the study on the genus Cricotopus.

Prediction study of hydrocarbon reservoir based on time-frequency domain electromagnetic technique taking Ili Basin as an example

The time-frequency domain electromagnetic(TFEM)sounding technique can directly detect oil and gas characteristics through anomalies in resistivity and polarizability.In recent years,it has made some breakthroughs in hydrocarbon detection.TFEM was applied to predict the petroliferous property of the Ili Basin.In accordance with the geological structure characteristics of the study area,a two-dimensional layered medium model was constructed and forward modeling was performed.We used the forward-modeling results to guide fi eld construction and ensure the quality of the fi eld data collection.We used the model inversion results to identify and distinguish the resolution of the geoelectric information and provide a reliable basis for data processing.On the basis of our results,key technologies such as 2D resistivity tomography imaging inversion and polarimetric constrained inversion were developed,and we obtained abundant geological and geophysical information.The characteristics of the TFEM anomalies of the hydrocarbon reservoirs in the Ili Basin were summarized through an analysis of the electrical logging data in the study area.Moreover,the oil-gas properties of the Permian and Triassic layers were predicted,and the next favorable exploration targets were optimized.

Sarcopenia diagnosed using masseter muscle area predictive of early mortality following severe traumatic brain injury

Traumatic brain injury（TBI）represents a global pandemic and is currently a leading cause of injury related death worldwide.Unfortunately,those who survive initial injury often suffer devastating functional,social,and economic consequences.

ON THE PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL AND INFLUENCE ON SOUTHERN CHINA USING MONTHLY OLR ANOMALIES FOR PRIME SUMMER

With the OLR data, the landfall and activity of tropical cyclones (TC) in southern China over a 20-year period (1975～1994) are studied. The result shows that the variation of the monthly anomalous OLR is somewhat teleconnected with the TC activity in southern China. The former is used to predict short-term climate for the latter over months with frequent or no TC influence. To some extent, the relationship between the TC activity in southern China and the monthly mean OLR anomalies is dependent on the climatological location of the subtropical high in northwestern Pacific region.

Time function of surface subsidence based on Harris model in mined-out area

The surface subsidence is a common environmental hazard in mined-out area. Based on careful analysis of the regularity of surface subsidence in mined-out area, we proposed a new time function based on Harris curve model in consideration of the shortage of current surface subsidence time functions. By analyzing the characteristics of the new time function, we found that it could meet the dynamic process, the velocity change process and the acceleration change process during surface subsidence. Then its rationality had been verified through project cases. The results show that the proposed time function model can give a good reflection of the regularity of surface subsidence in mined-out area and can accurately predict surface subsidence. And the prediction data of the model are a little greater than measured data on condition of proper measured data quantity, which is safety in the engineering. This model provides a new method for the analysis of surface subsidence in mined-out area and reference for future prediction, and it is valuable to engineering application.

The Meteorological Prediction Model of Lemon Production in Anyue County Based on Correlation

Using the meteorological data during 1971- 2013 and lemon growth and yield data during 2003- 2013 in Anyue,the suitability problem of lemon growth and correlation problem between meteorological factors and lemon growth in Anyue area were studied. According to relevance between the selected meteorological factors and yield of lemon,meteorological prediction model of lemon yield was established in Anyue,and the prediction accuracy was higher. The research had certain guiding significance for management work of lemon production in Anyue area.

Prospectivity modeling of porphyry copper deposits: recognition of efficient mono-and multi-element geochemical signatures in the Varzaghan district, NW Iran

The Varzaghan district at the northwestern margin of the Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic arc, is considered a promising area for the exploration of porphyry Cu deposits in Iran. In this study we identified mono-and multi-element geochemical anomalies associated with Cu–Au–Mo–Bi mineralization in the central parts of the Varzaghan district by applying the concentration–area fractal method. After mono-element geochemical investigations, principal component analysis was applied to ten selected elements in order to acquire a multi-element geochemical signature based on the mineralization-related component. Quantitative comparisons of the obtained fractal-based populations were carried out in accordance with known Cu occurrences using Student's t-values. Then,significant mono-and multi-element geochemical layers were separately combined with related geologic and structural layers to generate prospectivity models, using the fuzzy GAMMA approach. For quantitative evaluation of the effectiveness of different geochemical signatures in final prospectivity models, a prediction-area plot was adapted. The results show that the multi-element geochemical signature of principal component one(PC1) is more effective than mono-element layers in delimiting exploration targets related to porphyry Cu deposits.

Comparative research on the prognostic ability of improved early warning and APACHE Ⅱ evaluation for hospitalized patients in the emergency department

Objective： To compare the feasibility and applicability of predicting the prognosis of patients using the Early Warning Score（MEWS） system and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation（APACHE Ⅱ） system in the Emergency Department.Methods： Using a prospective study method, the APACHE Ⅱ and MEWS data for 640 patients hospitalized in the Emergency Internal Medicine Department were collected. The prognoses, two scores to predict the corresponding prediction index of sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value for the prognosis,the negative predictive value and the ROC curve for predicting the prognosis were analyzed for all patients.Results： In the prediction of the risk of mortality, the MEWS system had a high resolution. The MEWS area under the ROC curve was 0.93. The area under the ROC curve for the APACHE score was 0.79, and the difference was statistically significant（Z =4.348, P 〈 0.01）.Conclusions： Both the MEWS and APACHE Ⅱ systems can be used to determine the severity of emergency patients and have a certain predictive value for the patient＇s mortality risk. However, the MEWS system is simple and quick to operate, making it a useful supplement for APACHE Ⅱ score.