The automatic diagnostic analysis on atmospheric horizontal inversion area is realized through changing the single atmospheric inversion into horizontal one based on the sounding data in Micaps system;the basic concep...The automatic diagnostic analysis on atmospheric horizontal inversion area is realized through changing the single atmospheric inversion into horizontal one based on the sounding data in Micaps system;the basic conceptual model INCLUDING atmospheric horizontal inversion area,ground 0 ℃ line,high altitude wet area,extreme point 0 ℃ line in inversion layer is buillt after the research on relationship between atmospheric horizontal inversion area and freezing rain falling area;automatic diagnostic analysis on freezing rain falling area is developed based on the conceptual model,the method is in accord well with the actual situation (freezing rain disaster weather occurred in most part of the south in beginning of 2008) and fitting rate reaches 94.4%,quantitative correlation coefficient between the area of freezing rain falling area and stations reporting freezing rain is 0.839.展开更多
To discuss response ability of five functional areas to rainstorm flood in Chongqing,by taking 8 districts（ counties） as research object,monthly occurrence times of heavy rain and rainstorm in different functional a...To discuss response ability of five functional areas to rainstorm flood in Chongqing,by taking 8 districts（ counties） as research object,monthly occurrence times of heavy rain and rainstorm in different functional areas over the years and appearance month of the maximum rainfall were conducted statistics. Results showed that frequency distribution of heavy rain in whole year in different functional areas was different,but it was similar in the same functional zone. Temporal-spatial distribution of rainstorm was more independent,and there were different performances in various districts of each functional area. In urban functional core area and urban functional expansion area,rainstorm times was more,and the maximum precipitation was larger. In urban development new district,rainstorm times and the maximum precipitation were relatively smaller in whole Chongqing. In ecological conservation development area of northeast Chongqing,rainstorm duration was longer,and we needed prevention and control during June- September. In ecological protection area of southeast Chongqing,although rainstorm occurrence times was the most in Chongqing,the heavy rainstorm was less.展开更多
The rainfall forecast performance of the Tropical Cyclone(TC)version Model of Global and Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System(GRAPESTCM)of the China Meteorological Administration for landfalling Super Typhoon Lekim...The rainfall forecast performance of the Tropical Cyclone(TC)version Model of Global and Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System(GRAPESTCM)of the China Meteorological Administration for landfalling Super Typhoon Lekima(2019)is studied by using the object-oriented verification method of contiguous rain area(CRA).The major error sources and possible reasons for the rainfall forecast uncertainties in different landfall stages(including near landfall and moving further inland)are compared.Results show that different performance and errors of rainfall forecast exist in the different TC stages.In the near landfall stage the asymmetric rainfall distribution is hard to be simulated,which might be related to the too strong forecasted TC intensity and too weak vertical wind shear accompanied.As Lekima moves further inland,the rain pattern and volume errors gradually increase.The Equitable Threat Score of the 24 h forecasted rainfall over 100 mm declines quickly with the time-length over land.The diagnostic analysis shows that there exists an interaction between the TC and the mid-latitude westerlies,but too weak frontogenesis is simulated.The results of this research indicate that for the current numerical model,the forecast ability of persistent heavy rainfall is very limited,especially when the weakened landing TC moves further inland.展开更多
文摘The automatic diagnostic analysis on atmospheric horizontal inversion area is realized through changing the single atmospheric inversion into horizontal one based on the sounding data in Micaps system;the basic conceptual model INCLUDING atmospheric horizontal inversion area,ground 0 ℃ line,high altitude wet area,extreme point 0 ℃ line in inversion layer is buillt after the research on relationship between atmospheric horizontal inversion area and freezing rain falling area;automatic diagnostic analysis on freezing rain falling area is developed based on the conceptual model,the method is in accord well with the actual situation (freezing rain disaster weather occurred in most part of the south in beginning of 2008) and fitting rate reaches 94.4%,quantitative correlation coefficient between the area of freezing rain falling area and stations reporting freezing rain is 0.839.
基金Supported by Chongqing Municipal Frontiers and Application Base Research Program,China(cstc2014jcyjA 20002)Chongqing Municipal Key Laboratory of Institutions of Higher Education,China(WEPKL2013MS-10)+1 种基金Wanzhou District Soft Science Project,China(201404009)Innovation Planning Project for University Students of Chongqing Three Gorges University,China(2014-55)
文摘To discuss response ability of five functional areas to rainstorm flood in Chongqing,by taking 8 districts（ counties） as research object,monthly occurrence times of heavy rain and rainstorm in different functional areas over the years and appearance month of the maximum rainfall were conducted statistics. Results showed that frequency distribution of heavy rain in whole year in different functional areas was different,but it was similar in the same functional zone. Temporal-spatial distribution of rainstorm was more independent,and there were different performances in various districts of each functional area. In urban functional core area and urban functional expansion area,rainstorm times was more,and the maximum precipitation was larger. In urban development new district,rainstorm times and the maximum precipitation were relatively smaller in whole Chongqing. In ecological conservation development area of northeast Chongqing,rainstorm duration was longer,and we needed prevention and control during June- September. In ecological protection area of southeast Chongqing,although rainstorm occurrence times was the most in Chongqing,the heavy rainstorm was less.
基金supported in part by Key Program for International S&T Cooperation Projects of China(No.2017YFE0107700)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41875080)+1 种基金Scientific Research Program of Shanghai Science and Technology Commission(No.19dz1200101)in part by Shanghai Talent Development Fund and Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Open Foundation(2020TFS01).
文摘The rainfall forecast performance of the Tropical Cyclone(TC)version Model of Global and Regional Assimilation PrEdiction System(GRAPESTCM)of the China Meteorological Administration for landfalling Super Typhoon Lekima(2019)is studied by using the object-oriented verification method of contiguous rain area(CRA).The major error sources and possible reasons for the rainfall forecast uncertainties in different landfall stages(including near landfall and moving further inland)are compared.Results show that different performance and errors of rainfall forecast exist in the different TC stages.In the near landfall stage the asymmetric rainfall distribution is hard to be simulated,which might be related to the too strong forecasted TC intensity and too weak vertical wind shear accompanied.As Lekima moves further inland,the rain pattern and volume errors gradually increase.The Equitable Threat Score of the 24 h forecasted rainfall over 100 mm declines quickly with the time-length over land.The diagnostic analysis shows that there exists an interaction between the TC and the mid-latitude westerlies,but too weak frontogenesis is simulated.The results of this research indicate that for the current numerical model,the forecast ability of persistent heavy rainfall is very limited,especially when the weakened landing TC moves further inland.
