Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率。1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1月持续到3月,进而影响白令海EMO.11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2月北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关。伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1981-2022年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41%.

Seasonal Forecasts of Precipitation during the First Rainy Season in South China Based on NUIST-CFS1.0

Current dynamical models experience great difficulties providing reliable seasonal forecasts of regional/local rainfall in South China.This study evaluates seasonal forecast skill for precipitation in the first rainy season(FRS,i.e.,April–June)over South China from 1982 to 2020 based on the global real-time Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST-CFS1.0,previously known as SINTEX-F).The potential predictability and the practical forecast skill of NUIST-CFS1.0 for FRS precipitation remain low in general.But NUIST-CFS1.0 still performs better than the average of nine international models in terms of correlation coefficient skill in predicting the interannual precipitation anomaly and its related circulation index.NUIST-CFS1.0 captures the anomalous Philippines anticyclone,which transports moisture and heat northward to South China,favoring more precipitation in South China during the FRS.By examining the correlations between sea surface temperature(SST)and FRS precipitation and the Philippines anticyclone,we find that the model reasonably captures SST-associated precipitation and circulation anomalies,which partly explains the predictability of FRS precipitation.A dynamical downscaling model with 30-km resolution forced by the large-scale circulations of the NUIST-CFS1.0 predictions could improve forecasts of the climatological states and extreme precipitation events.Our results also reveal interesting interdecadal changes in the predictive skill for FRS precipitation in South China based on the NUIST-CFS1.0 hindcasts.These results help improve the understanding and forecasts for FRS precipitation in South China.

The Influence of Local Rainy and Dry Seasons on the Diurnal Temperature Range in Nigeria

This study analyzed the impact of the local dry and rainy seasons on diurnal temperature range (DTR), for each major climatic zone of Nigeria namely the tropical monsoon, tropical savannah and semi-arid, using meteorological data from thirteen observation stations for the period 1981 to 2021. DTR was computed from the difference of minimum temperature from maximum temperature and yearly and forty one years’ monthly averages of DTR and rainfall were computed and plotted in different graphs. The overall results from each climatic zone showed that DTR fluctuates with the seasons and there is an inverse relationship between DTR and rainfall whereby the value of DTR decreases as the rainy season approaches but increases as the rainy season departs ushering in the dry season or conversely DTR increases as the dry season approaches and decreases as the dry season departs ushering-in the rainy season. Secondly, the average yearly patterns of rainfall and DTR are roughly and oppositely shaped parabolas where the peak value of rainfall is diametrically opposite to the trough value of DTR and the least or nil volume of rainfall corresponds to the highest value of DTR. Thirdly, due to the yearly seasonal cycle of dry and rainy seasons in Nigeria coupled with the inverse relationship between DTR and Rainfall, the seasonal plot of DTR and rainfall is also cyclic in pattern with DTR cycle lagging 180 degrees with the rainfall cycle and the intersection of the two cycles represents the departure of one season and onset of another season while each half-cycle represents either the dry or rainy season. Fourthly, the dependence of DTR on any season at hand in Nigeria makes DTR season-forcing. This fourth result is underpinned by a result that showed that the 1981 and 2021 patterns of DTR and 1981 and 2021 patterns of rainfall when compared were similar, the differences were in the volume of rainfall which was due to climate change that has taken place over the four decades and which also impacted DTR since DTR varies inversely with rainfall. Finally and notwithstanding the common grounds of the results stated above, the result further showed that each climatic zone of Nigeria reacts differently to the local and global climate changes leading to the magnitude of DTR and the volume of rainfall being different across climatic zones, with rainfall volume and duration decreasing towards the arid North from the Coastal South while contrariwise DTR increases towards the arid North from the Coastal South.

Interannual Variation of the Onset of Yunnan’s Rainy Season and Its Relationships with the Arctic Oscillation of the Preceding Winter

Based on an analysis of the circulation in May associated with the interannual variation of the onset of Yunnan’s rainy season, this study examined the rela-tionship between Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the onset timing of the rainy sea-son by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observational precipitation data for 1961-2010. The results indicated that, on an interannual time scale, intense Asian summer monsoon and an active EU-pattern wave train circulation in its positive phase, associated with a cold cyclonic cell covering the western part of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet (EASWJ), jointly contributed to the onset of the rainy season in May. Otherwise, the onset might be suppressed. The cold cyclonic cell over East Asia likely led to the southward shift and enhancement of EASWJ as well as its secondary circulation around the jet entrance, which could provide a favorable dynamic and thermal condition for rainfalls in Yunnan as was revealed in previous studies on 10 - 30-day time scale. Further examination showed that the preceding wintertime AO played a significant role in the timing of the onset of the rainy season before the mid-1980s’ by mostly modulating the wave-train-like circulation over East Asia in May. During that time period, when the AO index of the previous winter was positive (negative), Yunnan’s rainy season tended to begin earlier (later) than normal. Correspond-ingly, the precipitation in May was also closely linked to wintertime AO.

IMPACTS OF THE ONSET OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ON THE BEGINNING OF THE RAINY SEASON IN YUNNAN

Summer monsoon in Southeast Asia can cause large-scale precipitation in the region in early summer, which is featured by prevailing low-level southwesterly from the Bay of Bengal to South China Sea （SCS）. It has characteristics of its own as well as those of Asian monsoons in general. As found in studies over recent years on East Asian monsoons, the earliest onset of the Southeast Asian summer monsoon occurs in early summer over the SCS, among all members of the monsoon system. It then advances westward to India and northward to eastern China, Japan and Korean Peninsula. As pointed out by Lau and Yang121, the end of April is the earliest time when the Asian monsoon sets up at the southern tip of Indo-china Peninsula. Being the earliest signal for the whole summer monsoon system in Asia, it may be of some predictive value for the establishment of Asian summer monsoon （ASM）.

Seasonal variations in the onset of ulcerative colitis in Japan

AIM:To investigate seasonal variations in the onset and relapse of ulcerative colitis(UC)in Japanese patients.METHODS:Between 1994 and 2006,198 Japanese patients diagnosed with UC according to conventional criteria in an academic hospital were enrolled for onset evaluation.Among 265 Japanese patients with UC who were observed for more than 12 mo,165 patients relapsed(239 times)and were enrolled for relapse evaluation.The patients’symptoms were recorded each month for 12 consecutive years.RESULTS:There was monthly seasonality in symptom onset during October and March for UC.The onset of symptoms in UC patients frequently occurred during the winter.Variation in UC onset was observed according to both month(P=0.015)and season(P=0.048).Relapse commonly occurred in October,and variations in relapse were not significant either in month(P=0.52)or season(P=0.12).Upper respiratory inflammation was the main factor responsible for relapse.CONCLUSION:Our results suggest that environmental factors associated with winter and spring seasonality may be responsible for triggering the clinical onset of UC in Japan.

Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Niña in the Past Decade

It has been suggested that a warm(cold)ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late(early)onset of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)in spring.Our results show this positive relationship,which is mainly determined by their phase correlation,has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011,due to the disturbance of cold tongue(CT)La Niña events.Different from its canonical counterpart,a CT La Niña event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific.Owing to the increased Indian−western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Niña events,empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.

APPLICATION EXPERIMENT OF ASSIMILATING RADAR-RETRIEVED WATER VAPOR IN SHORT-RANGE FORECAST OF RAINFALL IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON OVER SOUTH CHINA

A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction. To reveal the impact of the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor on short-term precipitation forecast, three parallel experiments, cold start, hot start and hot start plus the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor, are designed to simulate the 31 days of May, 2013 with a fine numerical model for South China. Furthermore, a case of heavy rain that occurred from 8-9 May 2013 over the region from the southwest of Guangdong province to Pearl River Delta is analyzed in detail. Results show that the cold start experiment is not conducive to precipitation 12 hours ahead; the hot start experiment is able to reproduce well the first6 hours of precipitation, but badly for subsequent prediction; the experiment of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is not only able to simulate well the precipitation 6 hours ahead, but also able to correctly predict the evolution of rain bands from 6 to 12 hours in advance.

Reconstruction of the starting time series of rainy season in Yunnan and the evolvement of summer monsoon during 1711-1982

According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yunnan during 1711-1982 has been reconstructed. The analysis indicates that there are obvious fluctuations in the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan in a year or years, and long fluctuation on the decadal scale. The rainy season comes earlier in the early 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th century. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. There exists an obvious quasi-3 years cycle, which is related to EI-Nino＇s quasi-3 years cycle, and a 11.3-year cycle which is notably related to the 11-year cycle of the solar activity of starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. Meanwhile, the dissertation finds that the EI-Nino is very important to the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. The starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan often comes later or normally in the year of EI-Nino. However, there is an obvious imperfect period in such influence, which in turn may mean that there is a certain fluctuation in the effect of ENSO on Asian summer monsoon.

Temporal Variations of the Frontal and Monsoon Storm Rainfall during the First Rainy Season in South China

The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in storm rainfall during these two periods are investigated here. The results reveal a significant out-of-phase correlation between the frontal and monsoon storm rainfall, especially on the inter-decadal timescale, the physical mechanism for which requires further investigation.

INFLUENCES OF LOW-FREQUENCY MOISTURE TRANSPORTATION ON LOW FREQUENCY PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN THE ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON OF SOUTH CHINA IN 2010

85-station daily precipitation data from 1961-2010 provided by the National Meteorological Information Center and the NCEP/NCAR 2010 daily reanalysis data are used to investigate the low-frequency variability on the precipitation of the first rain season and its relationships with moisture transport in South China,and channels of low-frequency water vapor transport and sources of low-frequency precipitation are revealed.The annually first raining season precipitation in 2010 is mainly controlled by 10-20 d and 30-60 d oscillation.The rainfall is more(interrupted) when the two low-frequency components are in the same peak(valley) phase,and the rainfall is less when they are superposed in the inverse phase.The 10-20 d low-frequency component of the moisture transport is more active than the 30-60 d.The10-20 d water vapor sources lie in the South India Ocean near 30° S,the area between Sumatra and Kalimantan Island(the southwest source),and the equatorial middle Pacific region(the southeast source),and there are corresponding southwest and southeast moisture transport channels.By using the characteristics of 10-20 d water vapor transport anomalous circulation,the corresponding low-frequency precipitation can be predicted 6 d ahead.

SEASONAL AND INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WARM POOL AND ITS RELATION TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET

The South China Sea warm pool interacts vigorously with the summer monsoon which is active in the region. However, there has not been a definition concerning the former warm pool which is as specific as that for the latter. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the South China Sea warm pool and its relations to the South China Sea monsoon onset were analyzed using Levitus and NCEP/NCAR OISST data. The results show that, the seasonal variability of the South China Sea warm pool is obvious, which is weak in winter, develops rapidly in spring, becomes strong and extensive in summer and early autumn, and quickly decays from mid-autumn. The South China Sea warm pool is 55 m in thickness in the strongest period and its axis is oriented from southwest to northeast with the main section locating along the western offshore steep slope of northern Kalimantan-Palawan Island. For the warm pools in the South China Sea, west Pacific and Indian Ocean, the oscillation, which is within the same large scale air-sea coupling system, is periodic around 5 years. There are additional oscillations of about 2.5 years and simultaneous inter-annual variations for the latter two warm pools. The intensity of the South China Sea warm pool varies by a lag of about 5 months as compared to the west Pacific one. The result also indicates that the inter-annual variation of the intensity index is closely related with the onset time of the South China Sea monsoon. When the former is persistently warmer (colder) in preceding winter and spring, the monsoon in the South China Sea usually sets in on a later (earlier) date in early summer. The relation is associated with the activity of the high pressure over the sea in early summer. An oceanic background is given for the prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon, though the mechanism through which the warm pool and eventually the monsoon are affected remains unclear.

Comparison of Rainy Season Onset, Cessation and Duration for Ghana from RegCM4 and GMet Datasets

The socio-economic sector of West African countries is rain-fed agriculture driven. Information regarding the onset, cessation and duration of the rainy season is thus, very essential. In this paper, a comparison of the onset, cessation and duration of the rainy season has been carried out using simulated rainfall data from the fourth generation Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) and rain gauge measurements from Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet), covering a period of 1998 to 2012. Similar onset and cessation dates were seen in both the simulated and guage rainfall measurements for the various agro-ecological zones, resulting in similar duration of the rainy season. The average duration of the rainy season were less than 200 days for the savannah and coastal zones whereas the duration of the rainy season were beyond 200 days for the forest and transition zones. The bias of these comparisons was less than 30 days and the root mean square error (RMSE) values were less than 15 days for all stations, except Saltpond. The Pearson’s correlation (r) typically ranged between 0.4 and 0.8. However, negative correlations were observed for Tamale in the savannah zone, and the entire coastal zone. These findings are indications that RegCM4 has the potential to clearly simulate the movement of the rain belt, and thus, could fairly determine the onset, cessation and duration of the rainy season. The findings have significant contributions to effective water resource management and food security in Ghana, as the thriving of these sectors depend on the dynamics of the rainfall seasons.

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DECADAL VARIATIONS OF ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON PRECIPITATION OF GUANGXI AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF INDIAN OCEAN IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

Decadal circulation differences between more and less rainfall periods in the annually first rainy season of Guangxi and their association with sea surface temperature (SST) of the austral Indian Ocean are investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results are shown as follows. A pattern in which there is uniform change of the Guangxi precipitation shows a 20-year decadal oscillation and a 3-year interannual change. In contrast, a pattern of reversed-phase change between the north and the south of Guangxi has a 6-year interannual periodicity and quasi-biennial oscillation. In the period of more precipitation, the surface temperature in Eurasia is positively anomalous so as to lead to stronger low pressure systems on land and larger thermal contrast between land and ocean. Therefore, the air column is more unstable and ascending flows over Guangxi are intensified while the Hadley cell is weakened. Furthermore, the weaker western Pacific subtropical high and South Asia High, together with a stronger cross-equatorial flow, result in the transportation of more humidity and the appearance of more precipitation. The correlation analysis indicates that the Indian Ocean SST in Southern Hemisphere is closely associated with the variation of the seasonal precipitation of Guangxi on the decadal scale by influencing the Asian monsoon through the cross-equatorial flow.

THE INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR YUNNAN PROVINCE IN RAINY SEASON AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH TROPICAL UPPER LAYER TEAT CONTENT

Based on the monthly precipitation data of 126 observation stations from 1961 to 2000 in Yunnan Province, the interannual and decadal variability of precipitation in rainy seasons are studied by using wavelet analysis. It is shown that there is a 2-6 year oscillation at the interannual time scales and a quasi-30 year oscillation at the decadal time scales. These periodic oscillations relate to the distribution of tropical heat content. When the precipitation is much more (less) than normal, the upper seawater is colder (warmer) in almost all the tropical Indian Ocean, and warmer (colder) in the western Pacific as well as colder (warmer) in the eastern Pacific. The key areas of the anomaly heat content distribution that have significant correlation to the Yunnan precipitation in rainy season are in the southern hemispheric Indian Ocean with a dipole pattern in the winter as well as in the deep basin of the South China Sea (SCS) before the Yunnan rainy season begins. Therefore, the anomalous distributions of the heat content in the southern Indian Ocean and the SCS In winter are good indicators for predicting drought or flood in Yunnan Province in the following rainy season.

Agroclimatological Characteristics of Rainy Seasons in Southwestern Burkina Faso during the 1970-2013 Period

The different drought phases observed during the 1970-2010 period have underlined important weaknesses of West African agricultural systems. The droughts resulted in important decreases in crop production, triggering a significant deficit in food availability. Many studies have identified changes in rain events seasonal patterns as the key drivers of agricultural production failure during these drought phases. In this study, seven agriculturally-relevant intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics (i.e., annual rainfall amount, onset and cessation of the rainy season, dry spells, extreme rain events, hot spells, and strong winds) and associated constraints to crop growth are described for the main cereals (maize, millet, and sorghum) in southwestern Burkina Faso. These characteristics are calculated or determined using daily climate data from a local network of 16 weather stations spanning the 1970-2013 period. A computation of the intensity and the occurrence of these phenomena during the rainy seasons helped to draw the rainy seasons’ nomenclature. Findings suggest that the rainy seasons during the drought phases are characterized by low annual rainfall amount, late onset, early cessation and more frequent long dry spells (>7 days). Furthermore, the long dry spells mostly occurred during the most sensitive phases of crop development: germination at the beginning of the rainy season and flowering at the end of the rainy season. Also, the intensity and the probability of occurrence of the other extreme events (hot spells and strong winds) during rainy seasons are very high in the establishment phase. Thus, adaptation strategies to mitigate these unfavorable climate conditions include a selection of short-cycle crop varieties combined with supplementary irrigation systems during long dry spells.

Seasonal Transition of Summer Rainy Season over Indochina and Adjacent Monsoon Region

The mean onset and withdrawal of summer rainy season over the Indochina Peninsula were investigated using 5-day averaged rainfall data (1975-87). The mean seasonal transition process during onset and retreat phases in Indochina, India and the South China Sea is also examined using 5-day mean OLR (1975-87) and 850 hPa wind (1980-88) data. It was found that the onset of summer rainy season begins earlier in the inland region of Indochina (Thailand) in late April to early May than in the coastal region along the Bay of Bengal. This early onset of rainy season is due to pre-monsoon rain under the mid-latitude westerly wind regime. The full summer monsoon circulation begins to establish in mid-May, causing active convective activity both over the west coast of Indochina and the central South China Sea. In case of withdrawal, the earliest retreat of summer rainy season is found in the central northern part of Indochina in late September. The wind field, on the other hand, already changes to easterlies in the northern South China Sea in early September. This easterly wind system covers the eastern part of Indochina where post-monsoon rain is still active. In late October, the wind field turns to winter time situation, but post monsoon rain still continues in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula until late November.

SSTA SIGNAL CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN DURING RAINY SEASON IN CHINA

The teleconnection distribution characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) over the India Ocean and the precipitation during rainy season in China were studied by using the methods of EOF and CCA. The results indicate that the change of SST field will affect the change of rain belt during rainy seasons in China, and greatly affect the precipitation in northwest and southwest China, the Yangzi and Yellow River downstream basins. Strong signal phenomena of SSTA over India Ocean were revealed that showed the anoma-lous distribution of drought and flood in China. It shows that the precipitation during rainy seasons in China may be forecast by analyzing SST distribution characteristics over the India Ocean.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MIDDLE EAST JET STREAM DURING SEASONAL TRANSITION AND ITS RELATION WITH INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

By using the NCEP/NCAR pentad reanalysis data from 1968 to 2009, the variation characteristics of Middle East jet stream(MEJS) and its thermal mechanism during seasonal transition are studied. Results show that the intensity and south-north location of MEJS center exhibit obvious seasonal variation characteristics. When MEJS is strong, it is at 27.5°N from the 67 th pentad to the 24 th pentad the following year; when MEJS is weak, it is at 45°N from the 38 th pentad to the 44 th pentad. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) mode of 200-hPa zonal wind field shows that MEJS is mainly over Egypt and Saudi Arabia in winter and over the eastern Black Sea and the eastern Aral Sea in summer. MEJS intensity markedly weakens in summer in comparison with that in winter. The 26th-31 st pentad is the spring-summer transition of MEJS, and the 54th-61 st pentad the autumn-winter transition. During the two seasonal transitions, the temporal variations of the 500-200 hPa south-north temperature difference(SNTD) well match with 200-hPa zonal wind velocity, indicating that the former leads to the latter following the principle of thermal wind. A case analysis shows that there is a close relation between the onset date of Indian summer monsoon and the transition date of MEJS seasonal transition. When the outbreak date of Indian summer monsoon is earlier than normal, MEJS moves northward earlier because the larger SNTD between 500-200 hPa moves northward earlier, with the westerly jet in the lower troposphere over 40°-90°E appearing earlier than normal, and vice versa.

Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics Associated with the Onset of Asian Summer Monsoon

The onset of the Asian summer monsoon has been a focus in the monsoon study for many years. In this paper, we study the variability and predictability of the Asian summer monsoon onset and demonstrate that this onset is associated with specific atmospheric circulation characteristics. The outbreak of the Asian summer mol）~soon is found to occur first over the southwestern part of the South China Sea （SCS） and the Malay Peninsula region, and the monsoon onset is closely related to intra-seasonal oscillations in the lower atmosphere. These intra-seasonal oscillations consist of two low-frequency vortex pairs, one located to the east of the Philippines and the other over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. Prior to the Asian summer monsoon onset, a strong low-frequency westerly emerges over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the low-frequency vortex pair develops symmetrically along the equator. The formation and evolution of these low-frequency vortices are important and serve as a good indicator for the Asian summer monsoon onset. The relationship between the northward jumps of the westerly jet over East Asia and the Asian summer monsoon onset over SCS is investigated. It is shown that the northward jump of the westerly jet occurs twice during the transition from winter to summer and these jumps are closely related to the summer monsoon development. The first northward jump （from 25°-28°N to around 30°N） occurs on 8 May on average, about 7 days ahead of the summer monsoon onset over the SCS. It is found that the reverse of meridional temperature gradient in the upper-middle troposphere （500-200 hPa） and the enhancement and northward movement of the subtropical jet in the Southern Hemispheric subtropics are responsible for the first northward jump of the westerly jet.