Health risk assessment of trace metal(loid)s in agricultural soils based on Monte Carlo simulation coupled with positive matrix factorization model in Chongqing, southwest China

This study aimed to investigate the pollution characteristics, source apportionment, and health risks associated with trace metal(loid)s(TMs) in the major agricultural producing areas in Chongqing, China. We analyzed the source apportionment and assessed the health risk of TMs in agricultural soils by using positive matrix factorization(PMF) model and health risk assessment(HRA) model based on Monte Carlo simulation. Meanwhile, we combined PMF and HRA models to explore the health risks of TMs in agricultural soils by different pollution sources to determine the priority control factors. Results showed that the average contents of cadmium(Cd), arsenic (As), lead(Pb), chromium(Cr), copper(Cu), nickel(Ni), and zinc(Zn) in the soil were found to be 0.26, 5.93, 27.14, 61.32, 23.81, 32.45, and 78.65 mg/kg, respectively. Spatial analysis and source apportionment analysis revealed that urban and industrial sources, agricultural sources, and natural sources accounted for 33.0%, 27.7%, and 39.3% of TM accumulation in the soil, respectively. In the HRA model based on Monte Carlo simulation, noncarcinogenic risks were deemed negligible(hazard index <1), the carcinogenic risks were at acceptable level(10^(-6)<total carcinogenic risk ≤ 10^(-4)), with higher risks observed for children compared to adults. The relationship between TMs, their sources, and health risks indicated that urban and industrial sources were primarily associated with As, contributing to 75.1% of carcinogenic risks and 55.7% of non-carcinogenic risks, making them the primary control factors. Meanwhile, agricultural sources were primarily linked to Cd and Pb, contributing to 13.1% of carcinogenic risks and 21.8% of non-carcinogenic risks, designating them as secondary control factors.

Construction of the Evaluation Index System and Assessment on the Modern Agriculture Development of Bohai Rim

[Objetive] To make clear the regional agricultural development level.[Method] To accelerate the process of modern agricultural development of Bohai Rim,the assessment index system of modern agriculture was established preliminarily and the data of provinces and cities in Bohai Rim was evaluated and analyzed,regarding the comprehensive development level of modern agriculture as general target and the input level of modern agriculture,the output level of modern agriculture,the social development level of countryside and the sustainable development level of agriculture as grading index.[Result] The results showed that Bohai Rim just entered the developmental stage of modern agriculture,with the integrated index of 0.585.Viewed from regional perspective,Beijing topped the others with the index of 0.798,which was followed by 0.694 of Tianjin,0.644 of Shandong,0.606 of Liaoning and Hebei province had the lowest value of 0.595.[Conclusion] Among all cities in this region,none of them reached at the developed level of modern agriculture.There were ten cities,which were mainly located in Shandong Province,were at the primary stage while the most of others were at the preliminary or initial stage.

Assessment and Implementation Intention of Circular Agriculture in Jiangsu Province with a Case of 20 Farmers' Professional Cooperatives in Huai'an City

Circular agriculture is of practical significance for Jiangsu agriculture. The research conducted quantitative analysis on circular agriculture in Jiangsu by estab- lishing assessment index system of circular agriculture development, In 2013, most indices of Jiangsu circular agriculture kept higher than national levels, but many problems exist such as excessive uses of chemical fertilizer, pesticide and mulch. Therefore, it is effective for advancing circular agriculture in Jiangsu to stabilize gov- emment fiscal support and broaden financing channels.

Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Soil Heavy Metal Contents in Facility Agriculture of Guangxi

[Objectives]To study the characteristics of soil heavy metal contents in facility agriculture of Guangxi and analyze its risks.[Methods]The heavy metal content of 30 surface soil samples taken from facility agriculture in Guangxi was analyzed.The status of soil heavy metal pollution in facility agriculture of Guangxi was evaluated by the single factor index method,geo-accumulation index method and Hakanson potential ecological risk index method with reference to the soil background value in Guangxi.[Results]Compared with the soil background value in Guangxi,the over-limit rates of heavy metals cadmium,lead,arsenic,chromium,mercury,copper and zinc in soil samples were 56.67%,56.67%,16.67%,30.00%,50.00%,60.00%and 80.00%,respectively.Compared with the screening values of the Soil Environmental Quality-Risk Control Standard for Soil Contamination of Agricultural Land(for trial implementation)(GB15618-2018),the overlimit rates of the heavy metals cadmium,arsenic,copper and zinc in the surface soil of agricultural facilities in Guangxi were 56.67%,10.00%,16.67%and 23.33%,respectively.Except for the average content of soil cadmium exceeding the screening value,the evaluation content of the other six soil heavy metals did not exceed the screening value.According to the evaluation results of the single factor pollution index method,the surface soil arsenic and chromium of the agricultural facilities in Guangxi belonged to the clean level,lead,mercury,and copper belonged to mild pollution,and cadmium and zinc belonged to moderate pollution.According to the evaluation results of the geo-accumulation index,the lead,arsenic,chromium and mercury in the surface soil of the agricultural facilities in Guangxi belonged to the pollution-free level,while the cadmium,copper and zinc belonged to the mild-moderate pollution.According to the evaluation results of the potential ecological risk index method,the potential ecological risks of the heavy metals of lead,arsenic,chromium,copper and zinc in the soil of agricultural facilities in Guangxi belonged to low potential ecological risk level,and the potential ecological risks of cadmium and mercury belonged to moderate risk level.The potential ecological risk index(RI)of the seven heavy metals in the soil was 132.46,which belonged to moderate potential ecological risk.The largest contribution of soil heavy metals to the potential ecological risk index was cadmium and mercury.[Conclusions]Taking the soil of facility agriculture in Guangxi as the object,this paper studied the characteristics of heavy metal content in facility agricultural soil and its risk assessment,in order to provide a scientific basis for facility soil heavy metal risk prevention and control and provide safe technology for facility agriculture.

Monitoring and Assessment System of Agricultural Drought Based on GIS Technology

[Objective] The research aimed to simplify the operating process of agricultural drought monitoring and assessment product,and improve fine level of monitoring and assessment map.[Method] By comprehensively using GIS and mathematics,meteorology,management science,computer science,the monitoring and assessment of drought were as the core,the monitoring and assessment system of agricultural drought based on GIS technology was studied.[Result] The drought in Guangxi on November 4,2006 was monitored by using the system,and the actual situation was used to test.The result proved that the good monitoring effect was obtained.[Conclusion] The monitoring and assessment system of agricultural drought based on GIS realized the organic combination of GIS and professional monitoring,assessment model.The flexible HCI interface and visualization expression were provided.The monitoring and assessment function of agricultural drought was realized.It had the good practicality and advancement.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Haidong Agricultural Region in Qinghai and Its Adaptive Countermeasures

[Objective] The aim was to study climate changes and its effects on agriculture in Haidong agricultural region.[Method] Based on meteorology and agricultural observation data in Haidong agricultural region from 1961 to 2009,the characteristics of climate change and its effects on agriculture were analyzed,and the possible effects of future climate change on Haidong agriculture were predicted according to the future climate scenarios provided by down-scaling climate model.[Result] Annual mean temperature in Haidong agricultural region during 1961-2009 showed obvious increase trend,with the rising rate of 0.37 ℃/10 a;annual mean precipitation and annual total sunshine duration went down slightly,with the climatic tendency of 3.70 mm/10 a and-27.55 h/10 a,respectively;climate extreme event occurred less frequently but became severer in recent 49 years.In future 100 years,temperature in Haidong agricultural region would go up significantly,with the slight increase of rainfall,and climate changes would affect agricultural production environment,arrangement,structure and productivity,namely increasing yield fluctuation of agricultural production,cost and investment and changing arrangement and structure.In order to adapt climate change,it was necessary to adjust agricultural structure,strengthen management,improve agricultural infrastructure,adopt new technology,increase the resistance ability of agricultural production to climate change actively and designedly,so as to improve adaptability,furthest reduce loss and realize potential benefit.[Conclusion] Our study could provide references for the decision of government and agricultural sector.

Assessment of Climate for Agricultural Suitability and Optimal Allocation of Agricultural Production in the Guanzhong Region, Shaanxi Province

Based on spatial climatic data of agriculture and the experiment data, the models of agro-ecological assessment of climate for agricultural suitability in this study were developed using the fuzzy mathematical method. Three coefficients, in- cluding the resource coefficient （Cr）, the efficiency coefficient （Ce）, and the utility co- efficient （K）, were used in the models, which were calculated based on temperature, moisture, and sunshine duration data of Guanzhong region, Shaanxi Province. The results indicated that resource coefficient was higher in west of the region than that in east, and higher in south （especially in the Central Shaanxi Plain） than that in the Weibei plateau. The value of Cr changed from 6.5 to 9.2 from north to plain area. Spatial change of efficiency coefficient was obvious, lower in the northeast than in the central plain, and the value of Ce changed from 2.3 to 6.5 from the northeast to the central plain. As for utility coefficient, it was lower in northeastern part of the Weibei plateau and in southern mountain areas than that in the central plain, showing significant latitudinal zonality. Furthermore, the value of K increased from 0.35 to 0.78 from northeast to the central plain, and decreased from 0.78 to 0.53 from the central plain to southern mountain areas. These indicated that climate resource in the central plain region was more abundant and potential, compared with other regions. GuanZhong region was classified into three larger agricultural zones and three small independent zones, according to agro-ecological assessment. Light, heat and water resources should be made use of in an efficient way in spatial allo- cation of agricultural production. For example, water facilities should also be im- proved in Weibei plateau region where highly-qualified fruit should be enhanced and fruit processing industrial chain should be shaped. Large-scale production area of wheat should be increased in central irrigation region and more vegetable bases should be developed around large and medium-scale cities. Thanks for outstanding water conservation function, the three-dimensional agriculture including medicine and other sideline production should be developed in Qinling Mountains and the special- ized commercial agriculture should be accelerated in independent small zones, ac- cording to local conditions. In the research, different crop varieties were developed in corresponding regions as per current eco-climatic conditions.

A Comparative Study of Different Methods on Quality Assessment of Soil Environment Polluted by Zinc in Agricultural Production Areas——A Case Study in Shulan City of Jilin Province

[Objective] The aim was to explore evaluated precision on quality of soil environment polluted with zinc in agricultural production areas and to provide references for verification of production area.[Method] In Shulan City in Jilin Province,soils were sampled and analyzed in a laboratory using single-factor pollution index and GIS based spatial interpolation.The quality of environment polluted with zinc was assessed and related methods were compared according to Environment Quality Standard of Green Food Production Area.[Result] Spatial interpolation of zinc in soils based on GIS proved more precise than traditional methods;cokriging method with co-factors was higher in precision than common cokriging;cokriging method with zinc and organic matter was higher in precision than cokriging with zinc alone.[Conclusion] Quality assessment on environment polluted with zinc based on GIS interpolation is more scientific and reasonable than traditional methods.

Assessment on heavy metals pollution of agricultural soil in Guanzhong District

The monitored soil samples were collected from Heihui irrigated area, Jiaokou irrigated area, Qianhe river valley and Jinghe river valley （hereafter Heihui, Jiaokou, Qianhe and Jinghe for short respectively） of Guanzhong District. According to the Environment Quality Standard for Soil （GB 15618-1995II）, we evaluated the pollution status of heavy metals （Cd, As, Cr and Pb） that could seriously endanger soil environment and human health by using single-factor index and synthetic pollution index methods. The results indicate that the synthetic pollution indices P of soil heavy metals are less than 0.7 in Heihui, Jiaokou, Qianhe and Jinghe of Guanzhong, the single-factor indices Pi of soil heavy metals of most soil samples are less than 0.7, so the soil environmental quality is in a good condition in Guanzhong on the whole; the enrichment degree of soil heavy metals is in the order of Heihui, Jinghe, Qianhe and Jiaokou; the contaminated degree of soil heavy metals has the feature of Cd 〉 As 〉 Cr 〉 Pb; heavy metals contents in the cultivated horizon soil are generally higher than those in its underlayer soil, heavy metals contents of soil have the characteristic of enriching towards the cultivated horizon; Cd exceeds standard in the soil samples HS07a, b and HS08a, b at the Yangtao orchard in Heihui and in the soil sample QHS01a at the suburban vegetable plot in Qianhe, which was mainly caused by the long-term irrational use of chemical fertilizer and pesticide.

Assessment on environmental quality of heavy metals in agricultural soils of Chongming Island, Shanghai City

The environmental quality of heavy metals （Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Hg） in agricultural surface soil of Chongming Island was assessed by national, local and professional standards based on a large scale investigation, in which 28 samples from vegetable plots, 65 samples from paddy fields and 9 samples from watermelon fields were collected from whole island area. Results showed that the average concentration of Pb, Cd, Cr, As and Hg was 21.6 mg.kg^-l,0.176 mg.kg^-1, 69.4 mg.kg^-1, 9.209 mg.kg^-1 and 0.128 mg.kg^-1, respectively. Compared with the background value of Shanghai City soil, except for Pb and Cr, all the other heavy metals average concentrations in Chongming Island agricultural surface soil exceeded their corresponding natural-background values. The concentrations of Cd, As and Hg were 33.0%, 1.2% and 26.3% higher than the background value of Shanghai City, respectively. In addition, inverse distance interpolation （IDW） tool of GIS was also applied to study the spatial variation of heavy metals. The results indicated that most of agricultural soil quality was good, and the ratio of ecological, good soil, certified soil and disqualified soil were 1.26%, 97.1%, 1.47% and 0.12%, respectively. About 10.1%, 85.7%, 27.0%, 55.4% and 55.2% soil samples exceeded the Pb, Cd, Cr, As and Hg background value of Shanghai City, respectively. Among these three land use type soils, vegetable soil was most seriously polluted by heavy metals, which is probably related to the over-application of pesticides. The annual deposition fluxes of Pb, Cd, As and Hg were 7736μg·m^-2·a^-1, 208μg·m^-2·a^-1, 2238μg·m^-2·a^-1 and 52.8 μg·m^-2·a^-1 respectively. Crop straw burning was the important source of heavy metals of atmospheric deposition, and atmospheric deposition contributed a lot to heavy metals in agricultural soil in Chongming Island.

Index-based assessment of agricultural drought in a semi-arid region of Inner Mongolia, China

Agricultural drought is a type of natural disaster that seriously impacts food security.Because the relationships among short-term rainfall,soil moisture,and crop growth are complex,accurate identification of a drought situation is difficult.In this study,using a conceptual model based on the relationship between water deficit and crop yield reduction,we evaluated the drought process in a typical rainfed agricultural region,Hailar county in Inner Mongolia autonomous region,China.To quantify drought,we used the precipitation-based Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),the soil moisture-based Crop Moisture Index(CMI),as well as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI).Correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationships between dekad-scale drought indices during the growing season(May–September)and final yield,according to data collection from 2000 to 2010.The results show that crop yield has positive relationships with CMI from mid-June to mid-July and with the NDVI anomaly throughout July,but no correlation with SPI.Further analysis of the relationship between the two drought indices shows that the NDVI anomaly responds to CMI with a lag of 1 dekad,particularly in July.To examine the feasibility of employing these indices for monitoring the drought process at a dekad time scale,a detailed drought assessment was carried out for selected drought years.The results confirm that the soil moisture-based vegetation indices in the late vegetative to early reproductive growth stages can be used to detect agricultural drought in the study area.Therefore,the framework of the conceptual model developed for drought monitoring can be employed to support drought mitigation in the rainfed agricultural region of Northern China.

Assessment on Agricultural Drought Risk Based on Variable Fuzzy Sets Model

Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was estab-lished according to variable fuzzy sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respec-tively estimated in terms of dangerousness, vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combi-nation weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the as-sessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently.

Sustainable Agriculture Evaluation for Red Soil Hill Region of Southeast China

Agricultural sustainability for economic development is important and a complex issue throughout the world; however,it is difficult to synthetically evaluate its use in the policy making process. The objective of this study was to evaluate sustainable agriculture in the red soil hill region of Southeast China through a newly proposed method combining four separate sub-systems: regional population (P), resource (R), environmental (E), and socio-economic (S). This new index system was proposed to appraise synthetically the agricultural sustainability of the red soil hill region from 1988 to 1996 with a two-step method assessing: a) the agricultural sustainability in each province independently and b) the relative sustainability of each province to the whole region. The first step only provided a development trend for each province based on its original situation, while the second step provided additional information on the comparative status of each province in agricultural development to the region as a whole. Higher index scores were found for the economy and resource categories denoting improvement. However, lower scores in the environment category indicated the improvement was achieved at the cost of deteriorating ecological surroundings due to an increasing population that demanded more from the agro-ecosystem and put heavier pressures on it. Results also showed that water and soil losses in this region were the major obstacles encountered in sustainable agriculture development. The assessment results were verified when compared with results from another method. This suggested that the new assessment system was reliable and credible in evaluating agricultural sustainability on a regional scale.

Influence Factors and Assessment of Risk Perception for Agricultural Drought Based on Household-scale

This paper describes the basic connotation of risk perception, the influence factors of the risk perception for agricultural drought and the mainstream assess- ment model. Additionally, it summarizes the latest developments of research meth- ods for risk perception for the agricultural drought, and the research status of the risk perception for agricultural drought, and put forward the trends of risk perception for the agricultural drought. Finally, it proposes the research areas of the risk per- ception for agricultural drought should be improved in future.

Research Overview of Chinese Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment

This paper summarized the key concepts, evaluation principle and meth-ods of the agricultural meteorological disaster risk, then reviewed the research progress of main agricultural meteorological disaster risk assessment. The aim is to provide the reference of the system theory and method of agricultural meteorological disaster risk assessment.

An Agricultural Land Resource Assessment Study Based on GIS-An Example from Guiyang City

This paper assesses the agricultural land resources of Guiyang City by means of GIS, on the basis of the pressure-state-response model in which soil heavy metal contamination is selected as a pressure indicator. The results suggest that most of the agricultural land resources are of good quality. However, there are 17.11 km\+2 dry land and paddy field, which belong to the region of serious heavy metal contamination and are not fit for planting crops. At the same time, the high quality plowland, which is suitable for cultivation, has decreased nearly by 1/3 due to soil heavy metal contamination. These findings may improve our understanding that it is very important to prevent and cure heavy metal contamination of Guiyang City.

Assessment of Factors That Affect the Performance of Agricultural Production, in the Case of Amhara Region, Ethiopia

The agricultural sector is the basis of livelihood for a large proportion of society in Ethiopia. In the three political regimes in modern Ethiopia, the Imperial, the military and the Ethiopian people revolutionary democratic front (EPRDF), agriculture has been regarded as a critical sector. The Agricultural Development Led Industrialization (ADLI) is the national policy of the country. Regardless of the government policy attention and investment, there is a long way to go for smallholders to ensure food self-sufficiency. Agriculture is the base of our food, transformation to industrialization, climatic change control system. Agriculture is the soul of our sovereignty for development as well as poverty reduction for individuals and country level. In Ethiopia, population density is high and has been increasing and agricultural land has been decreasing because of fragmenting or converting it into residential plots. To meet the domestic food requirements, use of improved production technologies developed by research is come out to be important. Therefore, the goal of this study was to analyze factors that affect the performance of agricultural products in Amahara region national state and to determine the highly significant input factors for producing high and qualified agricultural outputs. Data regarding total agricultural outputs and its input factors in study area of Amahara region from 2010 to 2018 was obtained from Amhara national state branch of the Ethiopian institute of agricultural sector. Correlation analyses were used to examine the strength of the relationship between each of the determinant factors with total agricultural output, while multiple regression analysis was employed to examine the simultaneous effects of several independent variables on the dependent variable, total agricultural outputs. These analyses were employed through the packages R and Stata to achieve the main objectives of the study. All of the independent variables were highly correlated with the total agricultural output. The overall regression model was highly significant (p-value < 0.01) with F = 45.532. The R-squared value implies that 93.8% percent of the changes in average total agricultural outputs are successfully explained by the variables used in the model of this study. If we take model size into account, 91.8% percent of the variation in average total agricultural output was explained by the values of the independent variables. Specifically, among the independent variables irrigated land, fertilizer, improved seed and pesticides are the most significant factors for total products (p-value < 0.05).

AN ASSESSMENT FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPING CAPABILITY OF INTEGRATED AGRICULTURAL REGIONALIZATION IN CHINA

Based on the provincial units evaluation, this paper makes an assessment forsustainable developing capability of the integrated agricultural regionalization in China. At first,an index system of agricultural sustainable development in China is built up, which includes 5supporting subsystems of agricultural resources, agricultural development, environment andecosystem, rural society, sciences-education and management. We selected 95 factors on provinciallevel as basic indexes. Second, a relative assets/debt assessing method is used to gain relative netassets values (relative superiority) of every provincial unit, which are as supporting data forassessment. We also overlaid the Administrative Divisions Map of China and the Map of IntegratedAgricultural Regionalization of China by Geography Information System (GIS) to gain the area unitsof assessment. Third, according to the relative coherence principle of regionalizaticn, we transformadministration units to natural units through homogenizing all provincial relative net assetsvalues in every agricultural assessing unit. After making order and grade, we complete thesustainable developing capability assessment to integrated agricultural regionalization in China.The assessing outcome shows that the total sustainable agricultural developing capability of Chinais not high. Only about 1 /3 in number or in area has reached the level of agricultural sustainabledevelopment. The relative net assets values exists a reducing trend from East China to West China.It needs a long period and great efforts to realize sustainable agricultural development over allChina. Finally, there is a discussion to the study method.

Establishment and Application of Assessment Indicator System of Agricultural Catastrophe Vulnerability

To give play to the role of agricultural catastrophe risk fund in spreading agricultural catastrophe risk,we select natural conditions,economic conditions,social conditions,as the external vulnerability assessment indicators;select commodity rate of agricultural products,substitutability of agricultural products,the extent of agricultural products being related to the national economy and the people's livelihood,as the internal vulnerability assessment indicators.We assign weight to indicators using Analytic Hierarchy Process,and establish assessment indicator system of agricultural catastrophe vulnerability,to analyze the compensation for losses of different agricultural products arising from agricultural catastrophe in different regions.And we take the case of rice in Sichuan Province,to demonstrate the role this indicator system.

A Review of Research on Risk Assessment of Fresh Agricultural Product Supply Chain

With the establishment of a well-off society in an all-round way,Chinese residents have put forward higher requirements for the quality and safety of fresh agricultural products.In recent years,domestic and foreign academic circles have also paid more and more attention to the risk of fresh agricultural product supply chain.This article collects and sorts out the research findings of domestic and foreign scholars on the risk assessment of fresh agricultural product supply chain in recent years,and summarizes and discusses from three aspects:supply chain risk factors,risk assessment indicator selection,and risk assessment methods.It is intended to provide a reference for future new research ideas and research perspectives.