Fishery stock assessment of Kiddi shrimp (Parapenaeopsis stylifera) in the Northern Arabian Sea Coast of Pakistan by using surplus production models

Pakistani marine waters are under an open access regime. Due to poor management and policy implications, blind fishing is continued which may result in ecological as well as economic losses. Thus, it is of utmost importance to estimate fishery resources before harvesting. In this study, catch and effort data, 1996-2009, of Kiddi shrimp Parapenaeopsis stylifera fishery from Pakistani marine waters was analyzed by using specialized fishery software in order to know fishery stock status of this commercially important shrimp. Maximum, minimum and average capture production ofP. stylifera was observed as 15 912 metric tons （mr） （1997）, 9 438 mt （2009） and 11 667 mt/a. Two stock assessment tools viz. CEDA （catch and effort data analysis） and ASPIC （a stock production model incorporating covariates） were used to compute MSY （maximum sustainable yield） of this organism. In CEDA, three surplus production models, Fox, Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson, along with three error assumptions, log, log normal and gamma, were used. For initial proportion （IP） 0.8, the Fox model computed MSY as 6 858 nat （CV=0.204, R^2=0.709） and 7 384 mt （CV=0.149, R^2=0.72） for log and log normal error assumption respectively. Here, gamma error produced minimization failure. Estimated MSY by using Schaefer and Pella-Tomlinson models remained the same for log, log normal and gamma error assumptions i.e. 7 083 mt, 8 209 mt and 7 242 mt correspondingly. The Schafer results showed highest goodness of fit R2 （0.712） values. ASPIC computed MSY, CV, R2, FMsv and BMsv parameters for the Fox model as 7 219 nat, 0.142, 0.872, 0.111 and 65 280, while for the Logistic model the computed values remained 7 720 mt, 0.148, 0.868, 0.107 and 72 110 correspondingly. Results obtained have shown that P. stylifera has been overexploited. Immediate steps are needed to conserve this fishery resource for the future and research on other species of commercial importance is urgently needed.

A stock assessment for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic using an environmentally dependent surplus production model

The southern Patagonian stock（SPS） of Argentinian shortfin squid, Illex argentinus, is an economically important squid fishery in the Southwest Atlantic. Environmental conditions in the region play an important role in regulating the population dynamics of the I. argentinus population. This study develops an environmentally dependent surplus production（EDSP） model to evaluate the stock abundance of I. argentines during the period of 2000 to 2010. The environmental factors（favorable spawning habitat areas with sea surface temperature of 16–18°C） were assumed to be closely associated with carrying capacity（K） in the EDSP model. Deviance Information Criterion（DIC） values suggest that the estimated EDSP model with environmental factors fits the data better than a Schaefer surplus model without environmental factors under uniform and normal scenarios.The EDSP model estimated a maximum sustainable yield（MSY） from 351 600 t to 685 100 t and a biomass from 1 322 400 t to1 803 000 t. The fishing mortality coefficient of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 was smaller than the values of F（0.1） and F（MSY）. Furthermore, the time series biomass plot of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 shows that the biomass of I.argentinus and this fishery were in a good state and not presently experiencing overfishing. This study suggests that the environmental conditions of the habitat should be considered within squid stock assessment and management.

Recycling Strategy and Recyclability Assessment Model Based on the Artificial Neural Network

Now, a rapidly growing concern for the environmental protection and resource utilization has stimulated many new activities in the in dustrialized world for coping with urgent environmental problems created by the steadily increasing consumption of industrial products. Increasingly stringent r egulations and widely expressed public concern for the environment highlight the importance of disposing solid waste generated from industrial and consumable pr oducts. How to efficiently recycle and tackle this problem has been a very impo rtant issue over the world. Designing products for recyclability is driven by environmental and economic goals. To obtain good recyclability, two measures can be adopted. One is better recycling strategy and technology; the other is design for recycling (DFR). The recycling strategies of products generally inclu de: reuse, service, remanufacturing, recycling of production scraps during the p roduct usage, recycle (separation first) and disposal. Recyclability assessment is a very important content in DFR. This paper first discusses the content of D FR and strategies and types related to products recyclability, and points out th at easy or difficult recyclability depends on the design phase. Then method and procedure of recyclability assessment based on ANN is explored in detail. The pr ocess consists of selection of the ANN input and output parameters, control of t he sample quality and construction and training of the neural network. At la st, the case study shows this method is simple and operative.

Safe production model for small mines

Presented a 'safe production model' that can be adopted by small mine opera- tors to achieve their production targets safely and efficiently.The model consists of eight elements ranging from management commitment and leadership to safety account-ability and communication.The model is developed considering the mine operators' resource limitations and the workers' training needs.The study concludes with a summary of a sample survey that is conducted to validate the model and estimate a parameter for each mine and determine its position in the safe production scale.

Application of Spatially Distributed Calibrated Hydrological Model in Evapotranspiration Simulation of Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China:A Case Study in the Madu River Basin

Evapotranspiration(ET)is the key to the water cycle process and an important factor for studying near-surface water and heat balance.Accurately estimating ET is significant for hydrology,meteorology,ecology,agriculture,etc..This paper simulates ET in the Madu River Basin of Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China during 2009-2018 based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model,which was calibrated and validated using the MODIS(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)/Terra Net ET 8-Day L4 Global 500 m SIN Grid(MOD16A2)dataset and measured ET.Two calibration strategies(lumped calibration(LC)and spatially distributed calibration(SDC))were used.The basin was divided into 34 sub-basins,and the coefficient of determination(R^(2))and NashSutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)of each sub-basin were greater than 0.6 in both the calibration and validation periods.The R2 and NSE were higher in the validation period than those in the calibration period.Compared with the measured ET,the accuracy of the model on the daily scale is:R^(2)=0.704 and NSE=0.759(SDC results).The model simulation accuracy of LC and SDC for the sub-basin scale was R^(2)=0.857,R^(2)=0.862(monthly)and R^(2)=0.227,R^(2)=0.404(annually),respectively;for the whole basin scale was R^(2)=0.902,R^(2)=0.900(monthly)and R^(2)=0.507 and R^(2)=0.519(annually),respectively.The model performed acceptably,and SDC performed the best,indicating that remote sensing data can be used for SWAT model calibration.During 2009-2018,ET generally increased in the Madu River Basin(SDC results,7.21 mm/yr),with a multiyear average value of 734.37 mm/yr.The annual ET change rate for the sub-basin was relatively low upstream and downstream.The linear correlation analysis between ET and meteorological factors shows that on the monthly scale,precipitation,solar radiation and daily maximum and minimum temperature were significantly correlated with ET;annually,solar radiation and wind speed had a moderate correlation with ET.The correlation between maximum temperature and ET is best on the monthly scale(Pearson correlation coefficient R=0.945),which may means that the increasing ET originating from increasing temperature(global warming).However,the sub-basins near Shennongjia Nature Reserve that are in upstream have a negative ET change rate,which means that ET decreases in these sub-basins,indicating that the’Evaporation Paradox’exists in these sub-basins.This study explored the potential of remote-sensing-based ET data for hydrological model calibration and provides a decision-making reference for water resource management in the Madu River Basin.

ANN valuation model of material LCIA profile

Weighting model is the only valuation model of life cycle impact assessment(LCIA) profile now. It simplifies evaluation function into linear function, and makes the determination of weighting factor complicated. Therefore the valuation of LCIA profile is the most critical and controversial step in life cycle assessment(LCA). Development on valuation models, which are understood easily and accepted widely, is urgently needed in the field of LCA. The modeling approaches for the linear evaluation function were summed up. The modeling approaches for the nonlinear evaluation function were set up by function approximation theory, which include choosing preference products, forming preference data, establishing artificial neural network(ANN) and training ANN by preference data. By selecting 7 material products as preference product, experience was done with modeling approaches of the nonlinear evaluation function. The results show that the modeling approaches and valuation model of the nonlinear evaluation function are more practical than the weighting model.

基于GRA-ISM-HMM的广州市肉及肉制品安全风险评估

该研究旨在利用广州食品安全风险监测2015年至2020年针对肉及肉制品样本的检测数据,构建肉及肉制品的安全风险评估模型,从而了解广州市该段时间内肉及肉制品的食品安全风险及其时变特点。该研究采取灰色关联分析方法和解释结构模型建立风险指数,并基于该指标值作为隐马尔可夫模型的观测值探讨观测背后的隐含风险状态。分析结果显示,2015~2020年所有样本综合风险指数结果都在[0,0.45]之间,总体风险都较小,其中2019年风险最高;将风险指数进行等级划分,显示2015~2020年风险等级为[1,2,2,2,3,1];通过HMM分析得到这六年的隐藏风险等级为[0,1,1,1,2,0],与观测风险结果一致,且HMM预测2021年风险等级为1,即表明广州肉及肉制品风险往良好态势发展。最后,进行风险差异原因分析,发现各肉制品分类之间有差异,其中腊肠、鸡肉和腊肉的风险指数较高于其他种类,而2019年增加腊肠和腊肉的检测是风险增加的一个原因。总体来说,广州肉及肉制品风险较小,但依旧需要监督改善。

软件产品成熟度模型与评估研究

简述了技术成熟度模型、软件能力成熟度模型(SW-CMM)和测试能力成熟度模型(TMM)等成熟度模型的侧重点和适用范围,分析了产品质量与产品成熟度之间的关系,指出了软件产品成熟度的影响因素与其表征维度的不同点,基于产品自身、质量和应用视角,考虑了产品的完整性、响应性、安稳性和适用性等特性,提出了软件产品成熟度评估模型,并给出了相应的成熟度等级定义及评估方法。

CLDAS降水产品的适用性分析及机器学习订正应用

为获得中国气象局陆面数据同化系统(CLDAS)多源降水融合实况分析产品在甘肃省的精细化评估结论并提高该产品的精度,采用甘肃省2215个地面站的降水数据作为检验源,评估CLDAS快速融合和实时融合降水产品的适用性,并基于评估结论采用机器学习方法及优化策略,订正CLDAS降水产品。结果表明:CLDAS降水产品能较好地反映甘肃省降水时空分布,日值的精度整体不如小时值;XGBoost算法较其他模型有显著优势,且在降水量大时订正效果更显著;通过提升训练数据集质量、特征工程和精细调参优化后的XGBoost模型使3级以上降水量的均方根误差减少近50%,1~2级的误判降水得到明显改善,该模型和算法能推广应用于具有相同气候特征的领域。

“三生空间”视角下基于云模型的崩岗侵蚀危害评价

崩岗是中国南方红壤区最严重的土壤侵蚀形式之一。崩岗侵蚀危害的类型与大小均存在空间差异,崩岗危害评估与风险防控应具备针对性和时效性,并提高评价结果的空间精度。本研究以福建省安溪县官桥镇为研究区,基于生产、生活、生态空间视角构建崩岗侵蚀危害评价模型,通过云模型对2020年崩岗侵蚀危害进行评价,并提出相应的治理措施。结果表明:(1)经济密度、人口密度和崩岗面积占比的权重较大,分别为0.278、0.164和0.148,说明经济社会因素和崩岗侵蚀的直接影响因素对危害程度的影响最大。(2)崩岗侵蚀危害呈中部和东北部高、四周低的空间分布特征,且对生产空间造成的危害最高,生态空间次之,生活空间最小,在风险管理体系中应重点预防中部和东北部的崩岗侵蚀危害,尤其是对生产空间的危害防控。(3)对比基于云模型与未应用云模型的评价结果,极高危害V区的空间分布趋势相似;应用云模型得出的空间评价结果更加细化,更能体现崩岗侵蚀危害的整体水平。本研究可进一步丰富崩岗侵蚀危害评价方法,并为崩岗治理提供建议。

Maize drought disaster risk assessment of China based on EPIC model

Digital Agriculture is one of the important applications of Digital Earth.As the global climate changes and food security becomes an increasingly important issue,agriculture drought comes to the focus of attention.China is a typical monsoon climate country as well as an agricultural country with the world’s largest population.The East Asian monsoon has had a tremendous impact upon agricultural production.Therefore,a maize drought disaster risk assessment,in line with the requirements of sustainable development of agriculture,is important for ensuring drought disaster reduction and food security.Meteorology,soil,land use,and agro-meteorological observation information of the research area were collected,and based on the concept framework of‘hazard-inducing factors assessment(hazard)-vulnerability assessment of hazard-affected body(vulner-ability curve)-risk assessment(risk),’importing crop model EPIC(Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator),using crop model simulation and digital mapping techniques,quantitative assessment of spatio-temporal distribution of maize drought in China was done.The results showed that:in terms of 2,5,10,and 20 year return periods,the overall maize drought risk decreased gradually from northwest to southeast in the maize planting areas.With the 20 year return period,high risk value regions(drought loss rate]0.5)concentrate in the irrigated maize region of Northwest china,ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in Northern China,Hetao Irrigation Area,and north-central area of North China Plain,accounting for 6.41%of the total maize area.These results can provide a scientific basis for the government’s decision-making in risk management and drought disaster prevention in China.

基于综合视角的县域国土空间冲突测度与功能优化——以江西省宜黄县为例

[目的]测度国土空间冲突强度,分区探讨国土空间冲突管理和优化国土空间利用途径,为县域国土空间可持续开发利用提供新的思路。[方法]以江西省宜黄县为例,通过景观生态指数模型、可开发强度分析、用地现状与适宜性评价叠加3种方法,以“把握景观格局—明确开发强度—摸底适宜性—实现功能优化”综合视角为导向,构建综合视角下国土空间冲突测度模型,识别乡镇尺度下空间显著冲突与区域本位基底相耦合的综合冲突类型区,进而提出功能优化措施。[结果]①2010—2020年宜黄县城镇化趋势扩大,生态空间的容纳度变低,国土空间主要表现为农业生产空间和生态空间向工矿生产空间和城镇生活空间转移。②2010—2020年宜黄县区域空间冲突强度加剧,不同时段和区域下空间冲突强度和分布情况差异显著,可控空间主要分布在南部,轻度和中度冲突在域内分布较为均匀,重度冲突主要分布在北部、中部和东部。③根据开发强度和冲突产生诱因,可将宜黄县乡镇划分为地形发展劣势区、城镇开发密集区和自然保护地集中区3类,作为空间功能优化的重点。④宜黄县乡镇尺度上空间冲突类型区分布存在差异性,表现为:农业空间与生态空间冲突>城镇空间与生态空间冲突>城镇空间冲突>农业空间冲突。⑤由综合冲突测度模型,得到宜黄县域内包含8种综合冲突组合,归并后可分为城镇扩张无序、城镇规模扩张、城镇规划不当、总体发展滞后和城镇发展滞后5种冲突类型。[结论]2010—2020年宜黄县空间冲突强度加剧,区域生态安全和粮食安全受到不断挑战。应当加强空间冲突分区管控,针对性优化区域国土空间资源开发利用。

财商教育对家庭收入水平的影响研究——基于财商测评系统

现代社会中,财商被认为与智商、情商并列的三大核心素质之一,其重要性日益凸显,成为经济社会中民众不可或缺的基本素养。提出财商评价体系,基于财商测评系统收集的数据,建立多分类有序Logit模型,探讨包括财商在内的多种因素对家庭收入的影响。结果表明,财商教育对家庭收入水平的影响受到经济发展速度的影响,两者存在高相关性;学历水平的提高并不能直接带来家庭收入的增加;家庭成员为3~4人时对收入水平有正向的提升作用;23~48岁人群的财商与收入水平较高,地区性控制变量的显著性证明该财商测评系统的有效性。基于此,建议推动普惠金融提质扩面,大力发展新质生产力,加强财商教育,加快建立系统性财商通识培训体系并定期组织国民财商水平的检测。

基于DEMATEL-EWM二维云模型的装备生产过程质量评估

监督装备生产过程并保证其正常运行是用户监督代表的重要职责,也是保障装备性能的重要基础,由于生产过程中的不确定性因素众多,导致监督代表往往难以对其做出精准、客观的质量评估;为提高装备生产过程质量评估精度,强化生产过程质量监督力度,首先通过对问题场景和问题因素的客观分析,构建质量评估指标,根据生产过程质量监督的定义将承制单位自查符合度和监督代表检查满意度两个维度作为评估各指标的基础变量;采用决策实验室法和熵权法分别确定指标的主、客观权重,并引入距离函数概念最终确定各级指标的组合权重;通过专家评判计算得到云特征值从而建立二维云模型,绘制二维云图初步判定质量等级,计算贴近度精确判定结果;以某型军用柴油发动机装配过程进行实例分析,满足全面客观评估柴油发动机装配过程质量的要求,验证了所提方法的有效性和可行性。

某机械加工企业安全生产风险评估模型与对策研究

针对某机械加工企业的安全生产问题,旨在构建一套切实有效的风险评估模型,同时提出针对性的安全管理对策。为准确评估和预测企业内潜在的安全风险,采用故障树分析(FTA)和贝叶斯网络相结合的方法进行研究。不仅为该机械加工企业提供了科学的安全生产决策支持,也为类似企业的安全生产管理提供了参考与借鉴。

冻害对山东省茶叶产量的影响评估

为科学评估山东省茶树冻害影响情况,将山东省茶树冻害分为越冬期和春茶期冻害两类,分别找出影响两类冻害发生的主要气象因子,通过多元线性回归分别建立了山东省茶树越冬期和春茶期冻害减产预测模型。经验证,所得预测模型准确率较高,可以用来指导茶农科学防冻,提高茶叶产量和品质,推动山东省茶产业高质量发展。

耕地地力评价方法及模型分析

耕地地力的定量评价和分等定级是测土配方施肥的重要内容,也是实现农田地力定向培育和精准农作的基础。该文从地力评价指标筛选、评价单元划分与赋值、评价指标的权重确定等方面介绍了国内外耕地地力评价的主要流程和重要研究进展,对中国农业部推荐方法(特尔斐法-层次分析法)、神经网络法、支持向量机和决策树法等评价方法的原理及其优劣进行了较系统的述评。进一步地,还对该领域目前存在的指标体系通用性、评价结果可比性、数据缺失等问题及可能的解决方案作了探讨。在未来的耕地地力评价工作中,应将传统的层次分析法与近年兴起的分类与回归树等数据挖掘新技术相结合,建立起更为客观、全面的地力定量评价模型,为中国精准农业生产提供方法学参考。

机电产品绿色再制造综合评价模型及应用

为有效评估废旧机电产品的可再制造度,支撑废旧机电产品绿色再设计和再制造方案的形成,结合绿色制造技术、质量、经济、资源、环境(TQCRE)五大决策属性,通过对影响废旧机电产品再制造的技术、经济、质量、资源、环境和时间等因素进行分析,建立了废旧机电产品绿色再制造综合评价指标体系及其框架流程。通过定性和定量相结合、模糊综合评价等方法,建立了绿色再制造综合评价模型,并通过一个实例验证该模型的可行性和实用性。

基于新一代GPS的产品检验符合性不确定度评定

新一代产品几何技术规范将测量不确定度的概念拓展至符合性不确定度,但并未给出相对应的评定方法。为全面估计产品检验中测量结果与产品规范所有可能的差异,基于新一代产品几何技术规范,研究产品检验符合性不确定度评定。基于产品几何技术规范定义,提出规范不确定度、方法不确定度、符合性不确定度的评定方法;借助不确定度的黑箱模型,通过测量结果统计学量值特性指标,评定执行不确定度。以产品圆度检验为例,研究符合性不确定度评定操作过程,基于符合性不确定度划分产品检验的合格区间。实例分析结果表明,规范不确定度和方法不确定度的量值与执行不确定度相当,不可忽略;由于符合性不确定度包含测量结果与图纸规范所有可能的不一致性,基于符合性不确定度进行产品合格判定更为可靠。

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