Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Tibet, China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the M_S≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_S≥7.0 earthquakes tha...Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Tibet, China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the M_S≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_S≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction of America(NCEP)with the additive tectonic stress from astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) and makes the following conclusions: The abnormal temperature image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-temporal evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The ATSA has an evident triggering effect on the activity of a fault when the terra stress is in critical status; using the NCEP images and the ATSA to forecast short-impending earthquake is a new concept; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective ATSA cycle, i.e. that occurred at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of a peak, rather than at the time when the variation rate was maximal. In addition, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003～2004 in Tibet was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Fund of China (40172101)
文摘Taking the three earthquakes which occurred in Tibet, China during the period of July 12 to August 25, 2004 as an example,the paper analyses the M_S≥6.0 earthquakes that occurred in China and M_S≥7.0 earthquakes that occurred overseas since May of 2003 by combining the image data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction of America(NCEP)with the additive tectonic stress from astro-tidal-triggering (ATSA) and makes the following conclusions: The abnormal temperature image data of NCEP can better reflect the spatial-temporal evolution process of tectonic earthquake activity; The ATSA has an evident triggering effect on the activity of a fault when the terra stress is in critical status; using the NCEP images and the ATSA to forecast short-impending earthquake is a new concept; The three earthquakes occurred during the same phase of the respective ATSA cycle, i.e. that occurred at the time when the ATSA reached the relatively steady end of a peak, rather than at the time when the variation rate was maximal. In addition, the author discovered that the occurrence time of other earthquake cases during 2003～2004 in Tibet was also in the same phase of the above-mentioned cycles, and therefore, further study of this feature is needed with more earthquake cases in other areas over longer periods of time.
