Assessing the Relationship between October-November-December Rainfall and Indian Ocean Dipole in Recent Decades over Tanzania Following the 2011 Abrupt Change

The present study explored how the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influences October-November-December (OND) rainfall over Tanzania in recent decade following the 2011 abrupt change. The study spans 50 years, from 1973 to 2022. Notable abrupt changes were observed in 1976 and 2011, leading us to divide our study into two periods: 1976-2010 and 2011-2022, allowing for a close investigation into the existing relationship between OND IOD and OND rainfall and their associated large-scale atmospheric circulations. It was found that the relationship between OND IOD and OND rainfall strengthened, with the correlation changed from +0.73 during 1976-2010 to +0.81 during 2011-2022. Further investigation revealed that, during 1976-2010, areas that received above- normal rainfall during positive IOD experienced below-normal during 2011- 2022 and vice versa. The same pattern relationship was observed for negative IOD. Spatial analysis demonstrates that the percentage departure of rainfall across the region mirrors the standardized rainfall anomalies. The study highlights that the changing relationship between OND IOD and OND rainfall corresponds to the east-west shift of Walker circulation, as well as the north-south shift of Hadley circulation. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) indicates that both positive and negative IOD events strengthened during 2011-2022 compared to 1976-2010. Close monitoring of this relationship across different timescales could be useful for updating OND rainfall seasonal forecasts in Tanzania, serving as a tool for reducing socio-economic impacts.

Non-Line-of-Sight Ultraviolet Communication Performance in Atmospheric Turbulence

Non-Line-of-Sight(NLOS)Ultraviolet(UV)communication uses the atmosphere as a propagation medium.As the communication range increases,turbulence becomes a significant atmospheric process that affects the propagation of optical waves.This paper presents a more accurate NLOS channel model by considering turbulence-induced Scintillation Attenuation(SA).Then,the Bit Error Rate(BER)during turbulence of the NLOS UV communication system with On-Off Keying(OOK)modulation and Maximum Likelihood(ML)detection is analysed and compared with that in free space without turbulence.The BER dependence is also analysed for different factors,including the refractive index structure parameter,transceiver range,pointing angles,transmitted power,and data rate.