The Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Based on Different Parameterization Schemes of Planetary Boundary Layer

Based on different parameterization schemes of planetary boundary layer (PBL), the uncertainty of intensity and structure of the Super-strong Typhoon Rammasun (1409) is investigated using the WRF model (v3.4) with six PBL parameterization schemes. Results indicate that PBL uncertainty leads to the uncertainty in tropical cyclone (TC)prediction, which increases with forecast time. The uncertainty in TC prediction is mainly reflected in the uncertainty in TC intensity, with significant differences in the TC intensity forecasts using various PBL schemes. The uncertainty in TC prediction is also reflected in the uncertainty in TC structures. Greater intensity is accompanied by smaller vortex width,tighter vortex structure, stronger wind in the near-surface layer and middle and lower troposphere, stronger inflow(outflow) wind at the lower (upper) levels, stronger vertical upward wind, smaller thickness of the eye wall, smaller outward extension of the eye wall, and warmer warm core at the upper levels of eye. PBL height, surface upward heat flux and water vapor flux are important factors that cause the uncertainty in TC intensity and structure. The more surface upward heat flux and water vapor flux and the lower PBL height, the faster TC development and the stronger TC intensity.

Effect of the Vertical Diffusion of Moisture in the Planetary Boundary Layer on an Idealized Tropical Cyclone

Previous numerical studies have focused on the combined effect of momentum and scalar eddy diffusivity on the intensity and structure of tropical cyclones.The separate impact of eddy diffusivity estimated by planetary boundary layer(PBL)parameterization on the tropical cyclones has not yet been systematically examined.We have examined the impacts of eddy diffusion of moisture on idealized tropical cyclones using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Yonsei University PBL scheme.Our results show nonlinear effects of moisture eddy diffusivity on the simulation of idealized tropical cyclones.Increasing the eddy diffusion of moisture increases the moisture content of the PBL,with three different effects on tropical cyclones:(1)an decrease in the depth of the PBL;(2)an increase in convection in the inner rain band and eyewall;and(3)drying of the lowest region of the PBL and then increasing the surface latent heat flux.These three processes have different effects on the intensity and structure of the tropical cyclone through various physical mechanisms.The increased surface latent heat flux is mainly responsible for the decrease in pressure.Results show that moisture eddy diffusivity has clear effects on the pressure in tropical cyclones,but contributes little to the intensity of wind.This largely influences the wind-pressure relationship,which is crucial in tropical cyclones simulation.These results improve our understanding of moisture eddy diffusivity in the PBL and its influence on tropical cyclones,and provides guidance for interpreting the variation of moisture in the PBL for tropical cyclone simulations.

Influence of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation during the Period 1-12 September 2003

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder （AIRS） data show that the Saharan air layer （SAL） is a dry, warm, and well-mixed layer between 950 and 500 hPa over the tropical Atlantic, extending westward from the African coast to the Caribbean Sea. The formations of both Hurricane Isabel and Tropical Depression 14 （TD14） were accompanied with outbreaks of SAL air during the period 1-12 September 2003, although TD14 failed to develop into a named tropical cyclone. The influence of the SAL on their formations is investigated by examining data from satellite observations and numerical simulations, in which AIRS data are incorporated into the MM5 model through the nudging technique. Analyses of the AIRS and simulation data suggest that the SAL may have played two roles in the formation of tropical cyclones during the period 1-12 September 2003. First, the outbreaks of SAL air on 3 and 8 September enhanced the transverse-vertical circulation with the rising motion along the southern edge of the SAL and the sinking motion inside the SAL, triggering the development of two tropical disturbances associated with Hurricane Isabel and TD14. Second, in addition to the reduced environmental humidity and enhanced static stability in the lower troposphere, the SAL dry air intruded into the inner region of these tropical disturbances as their cyclonic ？ows became strong. This effect may have slowed down the formation of Isabel and inhibited TD14 becoming a named tropical cyclone, while the enhanced vertical shear contributed little to tropical cyclone formation during this period. The 48-h trajectory calculations confirm that the parcels from the SAL can be transported into the inner region of an incipient tropical cyclone.

Boundary-Layer Wind Structure in a Landfalling Tropical Cyclone

In this study, a slab boundary layer model with a constant depth is used to analyze the boundary-layer wind structure in a landfalling tropical cyclone. Asymmetry is found in both the tangential and radial components of horizontal wind in the tropical cyclone boundary layer at landfall. For a steady tropical cyclone on a straight coastline at landfall, the magnitude of the radial component is greater in the offshoreflow side and the tangential component is greater over the sea, slightly offshore, therefore the greater total wind speed occurs in the offshore-flow side over the sea. The budget analysis suggests that： （1） a greater surface friction over land produces a greater inflow and the nonlinear effect advects the maximum inflow downstream, and （2） a smaller surface friction over the sea makes the decrease of the tangential wind component less than that over land. Moreover, the boundary layer wind structures in a tropical cyclone are related to the locations of the tropical cyclone relative to the coastline due to the different surface frictions. During tropical cyclone landfall, the impact of rough terrain on the cyclone increases, so the magnitude of the radial component of wind speed increases in the offshore-flow side and the tangential component outside the radius of maximum wind speed decreases gradually.

Lidar Measurements of Aerosols in the Tropical Atmosphere

Measurements of atmospheric aerosols and trace gases using the laser radar (lidar) techniques, have been in progress since 1985 at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (18°32'N, 73°51'E, 559 m AMSL), India. These observations carried out during nighttime in the lower atmosphere (up to 5.5 km AGL), employing an Argon ion / Helium-Neon lidar provided information on the nature, size, concentration and other characteristics of the constituents present in the tropical atmosphere. The time-height variations in aerosol concentration and associated layer structure exhibit marked differences between the post-sunset and pre-sunrise periods besides their seasonal variation with maximum concentration during pre-monsoon / winter and minimum concentration during monsoon months. These observations also revealed the influence of the terrain of the experimental site and some selected meteorological parameters on the aerosol vertical distributions. The special observations of aerosol vertical profiles obtained in the nighttime atmospheric boundary layer during October 1986 through September 1989 showed that the most probable occurrence of mixing depth lies between 450 and 550 m, and the multiple stably stratified aerosol layers present above the mixing depth with maximum frequency of occurrence at around 750 m. This information on nighttime mixing depth / stable layer derived from lidar aerosol observations showed good agreement with the height of the ground-based shear layer / elevated layer observed by the simultaneously operated sodar at the lidar site.

The Effect of Surface Friction on the Development of Tropical Cyclones

When tropical cyclones （hereafter referred as TCs） are over the ocean, surface friction plays a dual role in the development of TCs. Prom the viewpoint of water vapor supply, frictional convergence and Ekman pumping provide a source of moisture for organized cumulus convection and is propitious to the spin-up of TCs. On the other hand, surface friction leads to a dissipation of kinetic energy that impedes the intensification of TCs. Which role is dominant in the developing stage of TCs is a controversial issue. In the present work, the influence of surface friction on the growth of TCs is re-examined in detail by conducting two sets of numerical experiments initialized with different cyclonic disturbances. Results indicate that, because of the inherent complexities of TCs, the impact of surface friction on the evolution of TCs can not be simply boiled down to being positive or negative. In the case that a TC starts from a low-level vortex with a warm core, surface friction and the resultant vertical motion makes an important contribution to the convection in the early developing stage of the TC by accelerating the build-up of convective available potential energy （CAPE） and ensuring moisture supply and the lifting of air parcels. This effect is so prominent that it dominates the friction-induced dissipation and makes surface friction a facilitative factor in the spin-up of the TC. However, for a TC formed from a mesoscale convective vortex （MCV） spawned in a long-lasting mesoscale convective system （MCS）, the initial fields, and especially the low-level humidity and cold core, enable the prerequisites of convection （i.e., conditional instability, moisture, and lifting）, to be easily achieved even without the help of boundary-layer pumping induced by surface friction. Accordingly, the reliance of the development of TCs on surface friction is not as heavy as that derived from a lowlevel vortex. The positive effect of surface friction on the development of TCs realized through facilitating favorable conditions for convection is nearly cancelled out by the friction-induced dissipation. However, as SST is enhanced in the latter case, the situation may be changed, and different development speeds may emerge between model TCs with and without surface friction considered. In short, owing to the fact that TC development is a complicated process affected by many factors such as initial perturbations, SST, etc., the importance of surface friction to the intensification of TCs may vary enormously from case to case.

Study of boundary layer characteristics during the landfalling of a Nisarga cyclone

One of the most important parameters in meteorology is the mean wind profile in the tropical cyclone boundary layer.The vertical profile of wind speed and wind direction were measured during the period of the Nisarga cyclone from May 31st,2020,to June 5th,2020,using the newly installed Phased Array Doppler Sodar system at the Center for Space and Atmospheric Science(CSAS),Sanjay Ghodawat University,Kolhapur(16.74◦N,74.37◦E;near India's western coast).Our analysis revealed that the maximum mean wind speed was 17 m/s on June 3,2020,at 10:00 IST.It also shows the change in wind direction from southwest to southeast on June 2 and 3,2020.Daily high-resolution reanalysis data in the domain,0–25◦N,65–110◦E,during the period from May 31st to June 5th,2020,revealed the variation of the atmospheric pressure of the Nisarga cyclone from 1000 to 1008 hPa,sea surface temperature(SST)between 30◦C and 31◦C,outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)between 100 and 240 Wm-2,wind speed between 3 and 15 m/s,and low values of vertical wind shear(VWS)were observed to the north of Nisarga track.These observations may provide more insights for the study of boundary layer turbulence during cyclonic activities.

Analyzing coherent structures in the tropical cyclone boundary layer using large eddy simulations

Turbulence within the tropical cyclone boundary layer plays a crucial role in the exchange of heat,moisture,and momentum between the surface and the atmosphere.This study investigates the characteristics of coherent structures,specifically streaks and rolls,using large eddy simulations.Our results highlight significant differences across the three radius cases,with smaller radius exhibiting more intense and organized turbulence and streak/roll structures.Our analyses reveal that thermodynamic conditions significantly impact the timing of initial streak/roll development but do not affect their intensity in the steady state.Wind structures closer to the tropical cyclone center lead to stronger and more rapidly developing streaks/rolls,indicating their critical role in determining the intensity and formation of these features.Sensitivity tests on the Coriolis parameter(f)and radial decay parameter of tangential wind(n)show minimal impact on the development of streaks/rolls,suggesting these factors are less influential compared to wind and thermodynamic conditions.

Dynamic Impact of the Vertical Shear of Gradient Wind on the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Wind Field

This work studies the impact of the vertical shear of gradient wind （VSGW） in the free atmosphere on the tropical cyclone boundary layer （TCBL）. A new TCBL model is established, which relies on five- force balance including the pressure gradient force, Coriolis force, centrifugal force, turbulent friction, and inertial deviation force. This model is then employed to idealize tropical cyclones （TCs） produced by DeMaria＇s model, under different VSGW conditions （non-VSGW, positive VSGW, negative VSGW, and VSGW increase/decrease along the radial direction）. The results show that the free-atmosphere VSGW is particularly important to the intensity of TC. For negative VSGW, the total horizontal velocity in the TCBL is somewhat suppressed. However, with the maximum radial inflow displaced upward and outward, the radial velocity notably intensifies. Consequently, the convergence is enhanced throughout the TCBL, giving rise to a stronger vertical pumping at the TCBL top. In contrast, for positive VSGW, the radial inflow is significantly suppressed, even with divergent outflow in the middle-upper TCBL. For varying VSGW along the radial direction, the results indicate that the sign and value of VSGW is more important than its radial distribution, and the negative VSGW induces stronger convergence and Ekman pumping in the TCBL. which favors the formation and intensification of TC.

Evaluation of the Ocean Feedback on Height Characteristics of the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer

In this study, the interaction between the tropical cyclone（TC） and the underlying ocean is reproduced by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Based on the simulation results, characteristics of the TC boundary layer depth are investigated in terms of three commonly used definitions, i.e., the height of the mixed layer depth（HVTH）, the height of the maximum tangential winds（HTAN）, and the inflow layer depth（HRAD）. The symmetric height of the boundary layer is shown to be cut down by the ocean response, with the decrease of HVTH slightly smaller than that of HTAN and HRAD. The ocean feedback also leads to evident changes in asymmetric features of the boundary layer depth. The HVTH in the right rear of the TC is significantly diminished due to presence of the cold wake, while the changes of HVTH in other regions are rather small. The decreased surface virtual potential temperature by the cold wake is identified to be dominant in the asymmetric changes in HVTH. The impacts of ocean response on the asymmetric distributions of HTAN are nonetheless not distinct, which is attributed to the highly axisymmetric property of tangential winds. The HRAD possesses remarkable asymmetric features and the inflow layer does not exist in all regions, an indication of the inadequacy of the definition based on symmetric inflow layer depth. Under influences of the cold wake, the peak inflow area rotates counterclockwise distinctly. As a consequence, the HRAD becomes deeper in the east while shallower in the west of the TC.

IDEALIZED SIMULATIONS OF THE INNER CORE BOUNDARY LAYER STRUCTURE IN A LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONE. PART Ⅰ: KINEMATIC STRUCTURE

The effects of coastal topography and coastal location in the distribution of boundary layer winds in the inner core of mature tropical cyclones are examined using a high-resolution multi-level model. In these numerical simulations, the evolution of the tropical cyclone boundary layer(TCBL) is studied in storm-relative coordinates, and in lieu of an actual steering current moving the model vortex, the position of the land-sea interface was shifted through the grid domain at a constant speed with separate surface boundary conditions specified over the land and ocean areas. It is shown that the presence of a coastal boundary produces land-induced asymmetries(along with an internal boundary layer) due to the asymmetric structure of surface drag. This land-induced asymmetry is found in both the azimuthal and radial wind field at landfall. For a moving storm, nonlinear advective interactions between storm-induced asymmetries and land-induced asymmetries can generate a lowlevel vorticity band ahead of the hurricane. When the storm motion vector has a component that is perpendicular to the coastal boundary, the interaction between this band and the mean vortex leads to a temporary weakening and re-intensification cycle. Furthermore, it is shown that the relative magnitude of the land-induced asymmetry depends upon the terrain slope and the terrain height such that the land-induced asymmetry dominates over the motion-induced asymmetry for elevated terrain. These results underscore the specific differences in boundary layer evolution and intensity evolution for hurricanes interacting with complex topographical features.

A Model of the Sea-Land Transition of the Mean Wind Profile in the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Considering Climate Changes

The tropical cyclone boundary layer(TCBL)connecting the underlying terrain and the upper atmosphere plays a crucial role in the overall dynamics of a tropical cyclone system.When tropical cyclones approach the coastline,the wind field inside the TCBL makes a sea-land transition to impact both onshore and offshore structures.So better understanding of the wind field inside the TCBL in the sea-land transition zone is of great importance.To this end,a semiempirical model that integrates the sea-land transition model from the Engineering Sciences Data Unit(ESDU),Huang's refined TCBL wind field model,and the climate change scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)is used to investigate the influence of climate changes on the sea-land transition of the TCBL wind flow in Hong Kong.More specifically,such a semiempirical method is employed in a series of Monte-Carlo simulations to predict the wind profiles inside the TCBL across the coastline of Hong Kong under the impact of future climate changes.The wind profiles calculated based on the Monte-Carlo simulation results reveal that,under the influences of the most severe climate change scenario,slightly higher and significantly lower wind speeds are found at altitudes above and below 400 m,respectively,compared to the wind speeds recommended in the Hong Kong Wind Code of Practice.Such findings imply that the wind profile model currently adopted by the Hong Kong authorities in assessing the safety of low-to high-rise buildings may be unnecessarily over-conservative under the influence of climate change.On the other hand,the coded wind loads on super-tall buildings slightly underestimate the typhoon impacts under the severe climate change conditions anticipated for coastal southern China.

基于下投式探空资料的热带气旋边界层结构分析

本文使用来自大西洋海域5218个探空仪和西北太平洋海域448个探空仪资料,以及全球海表面温度资料、热带气旋路径资料和强度统计预测方案资料,分析了46个大西洋飓风和11个西北太平洋台风所处的环境特征和边界层结构,并对热带气旋快速增强时的边界层结构做了进一步研究.结果表明:两海域增强组热带气旋更多地受到偏北的垂直风切变的影响,增强组热带气旋所处的环境也明显比减弱组热带气旋要更加湿热;且与大西洋飓风相比,西北太平洋台风所处的环境相对湿度更大,海洋热容量亦较高;从径向分布特征来看,增强组的热带气旋总体而言边界层更加温暖,比湿相对较低;相比于快速减弱的飓风,快速增强的飓风所受到的中低层垂直风切变方向更偏向北方,所处环境更湿热,温度分布更对称,但比湿较小.研究结果能为热带气旋的强度预报特别是快速增强(减弱)的预报提供参考.

台风过程珠江三角洲边界层特征及其对空气质量的影响

利用2006年7月珠江三角洲南北向3个点为期1个月的小球测风、低空探空资料及9个地面气象站逐时风向、风速资料,通过计算和分析风、温梯度资料,研究了台风过程珠江三角洲边界层特征及其对珠江三角洲地区空气质量的影响,重点分析了台风下沉气流影响导致灰霾天气期间的边界层结构.结果表明,2006年7月珠江三角洲地区空气质量主要受2个台风过程影响,当台风中心位于粤东及福建以东海域时,台风外围的下沉气流会对珠江三角洲地区的空气质量产生强烈影响,出现灰霾天气.在台风登陆前出现灰霾日时,珠江三角洲被均压场所控制,大部分区域为静小风,沿海地区会出现局地的海陆风,边界层风速较小.在200～500m低空会出现逆温层,同时最大混合层高度迅速下降到不足500m.

地形和边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋路径和强度影响的研究

采用准地转的正压模式,研究了无非绝热加热时地形和边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋路径和强度的影响。结果表明:地形作用对登陆热带气旋西北移动路径的影响比较明显,而对登陆热带气旋强度的影响不明显;边界层摩擦可以通过改变热带气旋X方向上和Y方向上的移动速度以及改变热带气旋水平环流结构对登陆热带气旋西北移动路径产生一定的影响,边界层摩擦对登陆热带气旋强度的影响非常明显,其中摩擦是造成登陆热带气旋强度迅速减弱的一个重要因素。

2006年超级台风“桑美”强度与结构变化的数值模拟研究

使用一个高分辨率、非静力数值模式WRF模式对2006年超级台风Saomei强度和结构进行了数值模拟研究。首先,评估了Makin的粗糙度长度公式对台风Saomei强度和结构变化的影响,结果表明,采用新参数后,使得模拟的台风强度变化与实况最佳路径资料的强度变化更一致,对超级台风Saomei强度预报有改进;但对台风路径的影响不大。通过QuikSCAT、雷达和TRMM非常规资料的验证,进一步表明模拟的台风Saomei的结构与实况很接近,可以再现台风内核区域的部分"双眼墙"和"Annular"结构。其次,通过对台风Saomei边界层过程模拟的改进,表明在平均风速大于40m/s时边界层各物理量明显改善,使得模式最大强度比传统的简单外推插值方案有显著改进,特别是在台风最强阶段,当台风Saomei眼墙区域的海表面拖曳系数C_d的相对变小,使得其眼墙区域的平均切向风速、径向风速、垂直风速、温度距平、涡旋动能和绝对角动量等物理量均有增强。表明台风Saomei眼墙区域(20—40 km)各物理量的贡献对其强度和结构变化的影响十分重要。最后,在此基础上进一步分析模式海温和大尺度环境垂直风切变对台风Saomei强度和结构变化的可能影响,讨论了台风Saomei在其增强和消弱阶段中,大尺度环境垂直风切变对其强度变化的负反馈作用。

东海热带气旋路径预报模式业务运行结果及改进模式

统计分析了东海热带气旋路径预报模式在１９９６年、１９９７年利 １９９８年三年业务运行的结果；系统地与主观预报和日本数值预报结果进行了同个例同时次的比较；对模式边界层物理过程中摩擦拖曳系数以及二次台风Ｂｏｇｕｓ技术、三维最优插值客观分析方法和资料同化等影响热带气旋移动的作用进行了试验研究；实现了间歇资料同化处理的业务化运行。

边界层参数化方案对台风“莫拉菲”热力和动力结构特征影响的对比

评估WRF模式对南海台风期间边界层的模拟能力,并对比分析了6组边界层参数化方案模拟的边界层热力和动力结构。与风温湿廓线探空资料的对比表明:边界层参数化对于位势高度和温度的模拟影响较小;Bou Lac参数化方案模拟的结果与实况变化趋势最接近,MYNN和YSU方案模拟的结果次之。是否考虑边界层参数化对热带气旋路径和强度的模拟影响显著;采用不同边界层参数化方案对热带气旋结构的模拟存在显著差别,且这种差异不限于边界层。和非局地参数化方案相对比,Boulac方案模拟的效果比较强,这可能是因为该方案有较高的混合效应、较大的对流动能以及能更好的模拟湿对流引起的湿度。Bou Lac方案模拟的结果更接近实际观测,这表明在稳定层结下使用局地k理论计算湍流扩散更为合理,但非局地方案在风速和气压的预报上存在一定优势。

海洋飞沫对热带气旋边界层结构的影响

将海洋飞沫参数化引入到一个高分辨率、非静力中尺度WRF模式中,对0908号热带气旋Morakot进行数值模拟,探讨了海洋飞沫对热带气旋Morakot边界层结构和强度的影响。模拟结果表明:采用新参数化后,对热带气旋Morakot的强度预报有改进,但对热带气旋移动路径改进不大;其次,通过对边界层过程的改进,使得眼墙区域的平均径向风速、切向风速、温度、相对湿度、垂直风速、热通量,降水等物理量均有增强,各物理量的贡献对热带气旋Morakot强度和结构变化的影响十分重要。

夏季西南极探空观测以及南极大陆大气垂直结构特征分析

利用第33次中国南极科学考察期间获取的中国长城站和智利Feri站以及夏季南极大陆沿岸8个世界气象组织(WMO)基准站探空资料对南极地区的大气垂直结构进行了分析,并结合NCEP和ERA-Interim再分析数据,对南极高纬度大气的表现能力进行了评估。研究发现长城站附近对流层顶的平均高度为9km,对应的温度和平均风速分别为–50℃、21m·s^(-1);对流层中部大气垂直温度递减率为–6.34℃·km^(-1);边界层平均高度为600 m,平均风速为10 m·s^(-1)。当长城站东侧存在气旋或者受极地高压控制时,对流层顶高度较低,大气垂直递减率偏小;相反当长城站西侧受气旋影响时,对流层顶高度偏高,大气垂直递减率偏大。夏季东南极沿岸对流层顶高度普遍高于西部,南极点对流层顶最低,可能与绕极气旋的生消源地存在密切的联系。在对流层顶高度、探空要素的垂直分布特征评估等方面, NCEP再分析数据比ERA-Interim再分析数据更接近观测数据真实值。