Formation and Variation of the Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Climate Effects

To cherish the memory of the late Professor Duzheng YE on what would have been his 100 th birthday, and to celebrate his great accomplishment in opening a new era of Tibetan Plateau（TP） meteorology, this review paper provides an assessment of the atmospheric heat source（AHS） over the TP from different data resources, including observations from local meteorological stations, satellite remote sensing data, and various reanalysis datasets. The uncertainty and applicability of these heat source data are evaluated. Analysis regarding the formation of the AHS over the TP demonstrates that it is not only the cause of the atmospheric circulation, but is also a result of that circulation. Based on numerical experiments, the review further demonstrates that land–sea thermal contrast is only one part of the monsoon story. The thermal forcing of the Tibetan–Iranian Plateau plays a significant role in generating the Asian summer monsoon（ASM）, i.e., in addition to pumping water vapor from sea to land and from the lower to the upper troposphere, it also generates a subtropical monsoon–type meridional circulation subject to the angular momentum conservation, providing an ascending-air large-scale background for the development of the ASM.

The African Climate as Predicted by the IAP Grid-Point Nine-Layer Atmospheric General Circulation Model (IAP-9L-AGCM)

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Effect of model errors in ambient air humidity on the aerosol optical depth obtained via aerosol hygroscopicity in eastern China in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project datasets

This analysis of the multi-model aerosol optical depth (AOD) in eastern China using the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) datasets shows that the global models underestimate the AOD by 33% and 44% in southern and northern China, respectively, and decrease the relative humidity (RH) of the air in the surface layer to 71%–80%, which is less than the RH of 77%–92% in reanalysis meteorological datasets. This indicates that the low biases in the RH partially account for the errors in the AOD. The AOD is recalculated based on the model aerosol concentrations and the reanalysis humidity data. Improving the mean value of the RH increases the multi-model annual mean AOD by 45% in southern China and by 33% in June–August in northern China. This method of improving the AOD is successful in most of the ACCMIP models, but it is unlikely to be successful in GISS-E2-R, in which the plot of its AOD efficiency against RH strongly deviates from the rest of the models. The effect of the improvement in the modeled RH on the AOD depends on the concentration of aerosols. The shape error in the frequency distribution of the RH is likely to be more important than the error in the mean value of the RH, but this requires further research.

Atmospheric Anomalies Related to Interdecadal Variability of SST in the North Pacific

Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode and the 7-10-year mode. Results clearly indicate that corresponding to the positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Pacific, the anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are approximately out of phase, fully illustrating the important role of the interdecadal modes of SST. Since the two interdecadal modes of SSTA in the North Pacific have similar horizontal structures, their impacts on the atmospheric circulation and climate are also analogous. The impact of the interdecadal modes of the North Pacific SST on the atmospheric circulation is barotropic at middle latitudes and baroclinic in tropical regions.

Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

Based on 22 of the climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation(NPO), which is the second most important factor determining the wintertime sea level pressure field in simulations of the pre-industrial control climate, and evaluate the NPO response to the future most reasonable global warming scenario(the A1B scenario). We reveal that while most models simulate the geographic distribution and amplitude of the NPO pattern satisfactorily, only 13 models capture both features well. However, the temporal variability of the simulated NPO could not be significantly correlated with the observations. Further analysis indicates the weakened NPO intensity for a scenario of strong global warming is attributable to the reduced lower-tropospheric baroclinicity at mid-latitudes, which is anticipated to disrupt large-scale and low-frequency atmospheric variability, resulting in the diminished transfer of energy to the NPO, together with its northward shift.

Comprehensive applicability evaluation of four precipitation products at multiple spatiotemporal scales in Northwest China

Precipitation plays a crucial role in the water cycle of Northwest China.Obtaining accurate precipitation data is crucial for regional water resource management,hydrological forecasting,flood control and drought relief.Currently,the applicability of multi-source precipitation products for long time series in Northwest China has not been thoroughly evaluated.In this study,precipitation data from 183 meteorological stations in Northwest China from 1979 to 2020 were selected to assess the regional applicability of four precipitation products(the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate(ERA5),Global Precipitation Climatology Centre(GPCC),Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series Version 4.07(CRU TS v4.07,hereafter CRU),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM))based on the following statistical indicators:correlation coefficient,root mean square error(RMSE),relative bias(RB),mean absolute error(MAE),probability of detection(POD),false alarm ratio(FAR),and equitable threat score(ETS).The results showed that precipitation in Northwest China was generally high in the east and low in the west,and exhibited an increasing trend from 1979 to 2020.Compared with the station observations,ERA5 showed a larger spatial distribution difference than the other products.The overall overestimation of multi-year average precipitation was approximately 200.00 mm and the degree of overestimation increased with increasing precipitation intensity.The multi-year average precipitation of GPCC and CRU was relatively close to that of station observations.The trend of annual precipitation of TRMM was overestimated in high-altitude regions and the eastern part of Lanzhou with more precipitation.At the monthly scale,GPCC performed well but underestimated precipitation in the Tarim Basin(RB=-4.11%),while ERA5 and TRMM exhibited poor accuracy in high-altitude regions.ERA5 had a large bias(RB≥120.00%)in winter months and a strong dispersion(RMSE≥35.00 mm)in summer months.TRMM showed a relatively low correlation with station observations in winter months(correlation coefficients≤0.70).The capture performance analysis showed that ERA5,GPCC,and TRMM had lower POD and ETS values and higher FAR values in Northwest China as the precipitation intensity increased.ERA5 showed a high capture performance for small precipitation events and a slower decreasing trend of POD as the precipitation intensity increased.GPCC had the lowest FAR values.TRMM was statistically ineffective for predicting the occurrence of daily precipitation events.The findings provide a reference for data users to select appropriate datasets in Northwest China and for data developers to develop new precipitation products in the future.

Physical Essence of the “Predictability Barrier”

Although the "predictability barrier" is a scientific problem brought forward during the middle 1990’s,it has yet to be clearly understood.In this paper,the authors used model results to study the "predictability barrier" of some atmospheric (climatic) systems,including the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST),East Asia trough (EAT),and South Asia wind field (monsoon).It is shown that the "predictability barrier" appeared not only in predicting the SST in the equatorial Pacific,but also in predicting the atmospheric circulation systems,such as the EAT and the monsoon.The "predictability barrier" for predicting the different climate systems appeared not only in spring,but also in different seasons.It appeared in spring for the equatorial Pacific SST,in summer for the EAT,and in fall and winter for the monsoon.Further analyses showed that the fundamental physical essence of the "predictability barrier" is the seasonal variability characteristics of the atmospheric (climate) system.The "predictability barrier" would occur when the system was at its weakest or worst continuous phase.Furthermore,the models and error patterns also had an important impact on the "predictability barrier";good models and special error patterns can minimize the "predictability barrier".

Stability of weak solutions to climate dynamics model with effects of topography and non-constant external force

In this paper, a climate dynamics model with the effects of topography and a non-constant external force, which consists of the Navier-Stokes equations and a temperature equation arising from the evolution process of the atmosphere, was considered.Under certain assumptions imposed on the initial data and by using some delicate estimates and compactness arguments, we proved the L^1-stability of weak solutions to the atmospheric equations.

A Simulation Study on the Extreme Temperature Events of the 20th Century by Using the BCC_AGCM

Extreme temperature events are simulated by using the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model （BCC_AGCM） in this paper. The model has been run for 136 yr with the observed ex- ternal forcing data including solar insolation, greenhouse gases, and monthly sea surface temperature （SST）. The daily maximum and minimum temperatures are simulated by the model, and 16 indices representing various extreme temperature events are calculated based on these two variables. The results show that the maximum of daily maximum temperature （TXX）, maximum of daily minimum （TNX）, minimum of daily maximum （TXN）, minimum of daily minimum （TNN）, warm days （TXg0p）, warm nights （TNg0p）, summer days （SU25）, tropical nights （TR20）, and warm spell duration index （WSDI） have increasing trends during the 20th century in most regions of the world, while the cold days （TX10p）, cold nights （TN10p）, and cold spell duration index （CSDI） have decreasing trends. The probability density function （PDF） of warm/cold days/nights for three periods of 1881-1950, 1951- 1978, and 1979-2003 is examined. It is found that before 1950, the cold day/night has the largest probability, while for the period of 1979-2003, it has the smallest probability. In contrast to the decreasing trend of cold days/nights, the PDF of warm days/nights exhibits an opposite trend. In addition, the frost days （FD） and ice days （ID） have decreasing trends, the growing season has lengthened, and the diurnal temperature range is getting smaller during the 20th century. A comparison of the above extreme temperature indices between the model output and NCEP data （taken as observation） for 1948 2000 indicates that the mean values and the trends of the simulated indices are close to the observations, and overall there is a high correlation between the simulated indices and the observations. But the simulated trends of FD, ID, growing season length, and diurnal temperature range are not consistent with the observations and their correlations are low or even negative. This indicates that the model is incapable to simulate these four indices although it has captured most indices of the extreme temperature events.