Causal inference and related statistical methods

Statistical approaches for evaluating causal effects and for discovering causal networks are discussed in this paper.A causal relation between two variables is different from an association or correlation between them.An association measurement between two variables and may be changed dramatically from positive to negative by omitting a third variable,which is called Yule-Simpson paradox.We shall discuss how to evaluate the causal effect of a treatment or exposure on an outcome to avoid the phenomena of Yule-Simpson paradox. Surrogates and intermediate variables are often used to reduce measurement costs or duration when measurement of endpoint variables is expensive,inconvenient,infeasible or unobservable in practice.There have been many criteria for surrogates.However,it is possible that for a surrogate satisfying these criteria,a treatment has a positive effect on the surrogate,which in turn has a positive effect on the outcome,but the treatment has a negative effect on the outcome,which is called the surrogate paradox.We shall discuss criteria for surrogates to avoid the phenomena of the surrogate paradox. Causal networks which describe the causal relationships among a large number of variables have been applied to many research fields.It is important to discover structures of causal networks from observed data.We propose a recursive approach for discovering a causal network in which a structural learning of a large network is decomposed recursively into learning of small networks.Further to discover causal relationships,we present an active learning approach in terms of external interventions on some variables.When we focus on the causes of an interest outcome, instead of discovering a whole network,we propose a local learning approach to discover these causes that affect the outcome.

Dynamic thermo-mechanical coupled simulation of statistically inhomogeneous materials by statistical second-order two-scale method

In this paper,a statistical second-order twoscale（SSOTS） method is developed to simulate the dynamic thcrmo-mechanical performances of the statistically inhomogeneous materials.For this kind of composite material,the random distribution characteristics of particles,including the shape,size,orientation,spatial location,and volume fractions,are all considered.Firstly,the repre.sentation for the microscopic configuration of the statistically inhomogeneous materials is described.Secondly,the SSOTS formulation for the dynamic thermo-mechanical coupled problem is proposed in a constructive way,including the cell problems,effective thermal and mechanical parameters,homogenized problems,and the SSOTS formulas of the temperatures,displacements,heat flux densities and stresses.And then the algorithm procedure corresponding to the SSOTS method is brought forward.The numerical results obtained by using the SSOTS algorithm are compared with those by classical methods.In addition,the thermo-mechanical coupling effect is studied by comparing the results of coupled case with those of uncoupled case.It demonstrates that the coupling effect on the temperatures,heat flux densities,displacements,and stresses is very distinct.The results show that the SSOTS method is valid to predict the dynamic thermo-mechanical coupled performances of statistically inhomogeneous materials.

Dynamic thermo-mechanical coupled response of random particulate composites:A statistical two-scale method

This paper focuses on the dynamic thermo-mechanical coupled response of random particulate composite materials. Both the inertia term and coupling term are considered in the dynamic coupled problem. The formulation of the problem by a statistical second-order two-scale （SSOTS） analysis method and the algorithm procedure based on the finite-element difference method are presented. Numerical results of coupled cases are compared with those of uncoupled cases. It shows that the coupling effects on temperature, thermal flux, displacement, and stresses are very distinct, and the micro- characteristics of particles affect the coupling effect of the random composites. Furthermore, the coupling effect causes a lag in the variations of temperature, thermal flux, displacement, and stresses.

Application Study on Correction Method for Lag of Water Level Response to Earth Tide and Atmospheric Pressure

The water level in a deep well instantly responds to the earth’s tide and atmospheric pressure, and varies accordingly, not only in terms of amplitude but also in the phase lag. Therefore, phase lag correction is used in analyzing digital groundwater observation data in eastern China. Calculation results presented by the authors in this paper show that the correction method is effective in the identification of anomalous changes for short-term seismic precursors. The correction method can also be applied to the processing of observed deformation and tilt data.

Image Field Deformation of LAMOST due to Differential Atmospheric Refraction

A vectorial expression of the image field deformation of LAMOST due to the differential atmospheric refraction is presented. The calculated results are compared with those from previous analyses based on the traditional spherical trigonometric formulas. It is demonstrated that different tangential displacements of star images during the observation tracking given by various authors are simply due to different reference points adopted. It is pointed out that the observational celestial pole is the center of the apparent diurnal motion, that, by referring to the observational celestial pole, the effect of the differential refraction on the image field of LAMOST during the 1.5-hour tracking period is approximately equivalent to a constant rotation of - 13.65″ for all declination belts. It is therefore unnecessary to design a particular tracking velocity for each observation, and this will be obviously advantageous to the observation implementation. If the maximum tracking error of the fibers is 0.2″, then the fibers are required to be able to re-position during observational tracking for sky regions south of declination ＋20° and north of declination ＋60°.

A sodium laser guide star coupling efficiency measurement method

A large telescope＇s adaptive optics （AO） system requires one or more bright artificial laser guide stars to improve its sky coverage. The recent advent of a high power sodium laser is perfect for such application. However, besides the output power, other parameters of the laser also have a significant impact on the brightness of the generated sodium laser guide star, mostly in non-linear relationships. When tuning and optimizing these parameters it is necessary to tune based on a laser guide star generation performance metric. Although return photon fluxis widely used, variability of the atmosphere and sodium layer makes it difficult to compare results from different sites or even within a short time period for the same site. A new metric, coupling efficiency, is adopted in our field tests. In this paper, we will introduce our method for measuring the coupling efficiency of a 20W class pulse sodium laser for AO application during field tests that were conducted during 2013-2015.

Differential measurement of atmospheric refraction using a telescope with double fields of view

For the sake of advancing theoretical research about atmospheric refrac- tion, the atmospheric refraction observed at lower angles of elevation is still worth analyzing and exploring. In some engineering applications, objects with a larger zenith distance must sometimes be observed. Carrying out observational research on atmospheric refraction at lower angles of elevation has an important significance. However, it has been considered difficult to measure the atmospheric refraction at lower angles of elevation. A new idea for determining atmospheric refraction by utilizing differential measurement with double fields of view is proposed. Taking the observational principle used by the HIPPARCOS satellite as a reference, a prototype with double fields of view was developed. In August 201 3, experimental observations were carried out and atmospheric refractions at lower angles of elevation were obtained by the prototype. The measured value of atmospheric refraction at a zenith distance of 78.8° was 240.23″±0.27″, and the feasibility of differential measurement of atmospheric refraction with double fields of view was verified. Limitations of the prototype, such as inadequate ability to gather light, lack of accurate meteorological data recording, and a low level of automation in observation and data processing, are pointed out, which need to be improved in subsequent work.

A Wideband Microwave Holography Methodology for Reflector Surface Measurement of Large Radio Telescopes

Most reflector surface holographic measurements of a large radio telescope utilize a geostationary satellite as the signal source. The shortcoming is that those measurements could only be done at a limited elevation angle due to the satellite’s relatively stationary state. This paper proposed a new wideband microwave holographic measurement method based on radio sources to achieve full-elevation-angle measurement with small size reference antenna. In theoretical derivation, the time delay and phase change due to path length and device difference between the antenna under test and reference antenna are compensated first. Then the correct method of wideband holography effect, which is because of antenna pattern differing under different wavelengths when receiving a wideband signal, is presented. To verify the proposed methodology, a wideband microwave holographic measurement system is established, the data processing procedure is illustrated, and the reflector surface measurement experiments on a 40 m radio telescope at different elevation angles are conducted. The result shows that the primary reflector surface root-mean-square at around elevation angles of 28°, 44°, 49°, and 75° are respectively 0.213 mm, 0.170 mm, 0.188 mm, and 0.199 mm. It is basically consistent with the real data, indicating that the proposed wideband microwave holography methodology is feasible.

The estimate of sensitivity for large infrared telescopes based on measured sky brightness and atmospheric extinction

In order to evaluate the ground-based infrared telescope sensitivity affected by the noise from the atmosphere,instruments and detectors,we construct a sensitivity model that can calculate limiting magnitudes and signal-to-noise ratio(S/N).The model is tested with tentative measurements of M’-band sky brightness and atmospheric extinction obtained at the Ali and Daocheng sites.We find that the noise caused by an excellent scientific detector and instruments at-135℃can be ignored compared to the M’-band sky background noise.Thus,when S/N=3 and total exposure time is 1 second for 10 m telescopes,the magnitude limited by the atmosphere is 13.01^(m)at Ali and 12.96^(m)at Daocheng.Even under lessthan-ideal circumstances,i.e.,the readout noise of a deep cryogenic detector is less than 200 e-and the instruments are cooled to below-87.2℃,the above magnitudes decrease by 0.056^(m)at most.Therefore,according to observational requirements with a large telescope in a given infrared band,astronomers can use this sensitivity model as a tool for guiding site surveys,detector selection and instrumental thermal-control.

Measurements of atmospheric turbulence parameters at Vainu Bappu Observatory using short-exposure CCD images

We report atmospheric turbulence parameters, namely atmospheric seeing, tilt-anisoplanatic angle(θ_0) and coherence time(Τ_0), measured under various sky conditions, at Vainu Bappu Observatory in Kavalur. Bursts of short exposure images of selected stars were recorded with a high-speed, frame-transfer CCD mounted on the Cassegrain focus of a newly commissioned 1.3 m telescope. The estimated median seeing is ≈ 1.85 " at wavelength of ～ 600 nm, the image motion correlation between different pairs of stars is ～44% for θ0≈ 36" and mean Τ_0 is ≈ 2.4 ms. This work was motivated by the design considerations and expected performance of an adaptive optics system that is currently being planned for the telescope.

Using Earth’s Moon as a Testbed for Quantifying the Effect of the Terrestrial Atmosphere

In the past, the planetary radiation balance served to quantify the atmospheric greenhouse effect by the difference between the globally averaged near-surface temperature of and the respective effective radiation temperature of the Earth without atmosphere of resulting in . Since such a “thought experiment” prohibits any rigorous assessment of its results, this study considered the Moon as a testbed for the Earth in the absence of its atmosphere. Since the angular velocity of Moon’s rotation is 27.4 times slower than that of the Earth, the forcing method, the force-restore method, and a multilayer-force-restore method, used in climate modeling during the past four decades, were alternatively applied to address the influence of the angular velocity in determining the Moon’s globally averaged skin (or slab) temperature, . The multilayer-force-restore method always provides?the highest values for , followed by the force-restore method and the forcing method, but the differences are marginal. Assuming a solar albedo of , a relative emissivity , and a solar constant of and applying the multilayer-force-restore method yielded and for the Moon. Using the same values for α, ε, and S, but assuming the Earth’s angular velocity for the Moon yielded and quantifying the effect of the terrestrial atmosphere by . A sensitivity study for a solar albedo of commonly assumed for the Earth in the absence of its atmosphere yielded , , and . This means that the atmospheric effect would be more than twice as large as the aforementioned difference of 33 K. To generalize the findings, twelve synodic months (i.e., 354 Earth days) and 365 Earth days, where , a Sun-zenith-distance dependent solar albedo, and the variation of the solar radiation in dependence of the actual orbit position and the tilt angle of the corresponding rotation axis to the ecliptic were considered. The case of Moon’s true angular velocity yielded and . Whereas Earth’s 27.4 times higher angular velocity yielded , and . In both cases, the effective radiation temperature is ,?because the computed global albedo is . Thus, the effective radiation temperature yields flawed results when used for quantifying the atmospheric greenhouse effect.

黑龙江省保护性耕作技术实施效果统计分析

为跟踪东北黑土地保护性耕作行动计划实施状况,促进保护性耕作技术规范应用,对黑龙江省机械化保护性耕作技术实施情况进行抽样评估具有重要意义。为此,采用五点取样法实测调查抽样县(区)实施保护性耕作地块的保护性耕作方式、动土情况及秸秆覆盖率,调查并对比分析保护性耕作地块与相邻的非保护性耕作地块玉米株高、杂草及病虫发生情况。结果表明:黑龙江省采用免耕播种和少耕播种方式实施保护性耕作技术,在玉米生长中后期动土率低于50%的实施保护性耕作技术地块占总调研地块的75%,秸秆覆盖率大于30%的实施保护性耕作地块比例占60%;实施免耕或少耕等保护性耕作技术地块的玉米株高、杂草及病虫发生机率与相邻非保护性耕作地块差异不大,整体效果较好,尤其在遭受大风和强降雨灾害地区,实施保护性耕作技术种植的玉米抗倒伏优势明显;实施保护性耕作技术可以减少机械生产作业环节,降低农业生产成本,有效保护黑土资源,在黑龙江省具有较好的推广前景。

Quantitative Analysis of Seeing with Height and Time at Muztagh-Ata Site Based on ERA5 Database

Seeing is an important index to evaluate the quality of an astronomical site.To estimate seeing at the Muztagh-Ata site with height and time quantitatively,the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis database(ERA5)is used.Seeing calculated from ERA5 is compared consistently with the Differential Image Motion Monitor seeing at the height of 12 m.Results show that seeing decays exponentially with height at the Muztagh-Ata site.Seeing decays the fastest in fall in 2021 and most slowly with height in summer.The seeing condition is better in fall than in summer.The median value of seeing at 12 m is 0.89 arcsec,the maximum value is1.21 arcsec in August and the minimum is 0.66 arcsec in October.The median value of seeing at 12 m is 0.72arcsec in the nighttime and 1.08 arcsec in the daytime.Seeing is a combination of annual and about biannual variations with the same phase as temperature and wind speed indicating that seeing variation with time is influenced by temperature and wind speed.The Richardson number Ri is used to analyze the atmospheric stability and the variations of seeing are consistent with Ri between layers.These quantitative results can provide an important reference for a telescopic observation strategy.

负荷侧惯量估计的精细化统计修正方法

随着新能源的发展,作为系统惯量主要来源的常规机组不断被替代,负荷侧惯量占比持续提升,其重要性日益凸显。而目前已有负荷侧惯量估计方法较为简单,其估计结果误差较大,不能满足系统运行管理的需求。基于惯性资源统计,文中提出一种负荷侧惯量估计的精细化统计修正方法。首先,从负荷侧基础元件的惯量分析入手,基于基本负荷单元的惯量建模,并给出各种典型负荷模式下的负荷侧惯量估计表达式。然后,面向负荷侧分布式电源接入场景,分析其对惯量估计的隐藏效应,针对表后电源具有与不具有惯性环节2种情形,给出负荷侧惯量估计的统一修正公式。最后,依据IEEE 9节点系统搭建仿真系统,分别对包含与不包含表后电源2种情形进行仿真分析。结果表明所得负荷侧惯量误差均不超过5%,验证了所提惯量估计方法的准确性和可靠性。

邯郸市主城区不同土地类型对热岛效应的影响研究

土地利用/覆被变化对城市热岛效应的时空分布产生重要影响,探究两者的响应关系对城市发展和城市生态环境的保护具有重要意义。基于多时相Landsat影像,采用监督分类方法获取邯郸市主城区主要土地利用类型,同时采用大气校正法获取同时期的地表温度,并结合重心迁移模型、标准差椭圆等空间分析方法,深入探究2001-2020年邯郸市主城区不透水面与热岛效应的时空演变规律及其响应关系。结果表明:1)2001-2020年,邯郸市主城区不透水面以3.96 km^(2)·a^(-1)的速率增加,植被面积减少了81.68 km^(2),丛台区和邯山区不透水面面积增加最多,复兴区较少;2)近20 a来,邯郸市主城区热岛(高温和次高温)主要分布在城市中心地区,并呈现由城市中心向四周蔓延的趋势,夏季热岛效应更加明显;3)2001-2020年,热岛扩张方向与不透水面扩张方向基本一致,进一步证明不透水面扩张对热岛效应的显著影响。

基于数理统计和数值分析的污水处理厂处理效果评估方法

污水处理厂是污水处理工作的主要承担者,对其处理效果进行客观、科学地评估具有重要的现实意义。在比较法和保证率法的基础上,提出基于数理统计和数值分析的污水处理厂处理效果评估方法。该方法采用数学期望、置信区间(α=0.1)和变异系数表征平均水平、主要变化区间和达标稳定性,采用正态分布描述总体情况,采用正态曲线拟合频数分布并获得概率密度函数,最终通过求解概率密度函数对发展趋势进行定量预测。结合案例展示了该方法的实操方法,结果显示:新方法可用于多个目标水厂、多个考核指标之间的平行分析。此外,对该方法在污水处理厂优化调度与设计、超标风险分析等领域的应用进行了展示。

厦门地区预制中短管桩抗压承载力统计分析

本文收集了厦门地区27根φ500预制中短管桩(桩长为4.9~14.8m,桩端持力层为黏性土—强风化花岗岩)的抗压静载试验结果,采用极差法、修正箱线图法和勘察规范统计法对27根桩的抗压极限承载力分九种情况进行了归纳分析与统计,得出了预制中短管桩桩长宜按15m界定,其对应的短桩效应承载力折减经验系数为0.84等具有实际应用价值的经验参数,同时也剖析了极差法、修正箱线图法和勘察规范统计法的优缺点。

智慧环保背景下探究大气环境监测与布点方法

随着经济水平不断提高,人们的生活质量得到极大改善,与此同时,环境污染问题日益突出。大气环境是人们生活和生产活动的重要组成部分,大气环境质量直接影响人类身体健康和生存条件。因此,对大气环境进行科学监测和分析尤为重要。智慧环保技术的发展为大气环境监测提供了新的思路和途径。利用物联网、大数据等技术手段,可以实现对大气环境数据的实时采集和处理,并提供更准确和全面的数据分析结果。基于此,重点研究智慧环保背景下的大气环境监测与布点方法,以期有效推动大气环境监测工作的开展,促进生态环境的可持续发展。

低碳试点政策对大气环境的影响及空间效应研究

考虑以低碳转型推动区域资源节约与环境友好的高质量发展,对建设人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化具有充分现实意义。本文以三批低碳城市试点为准自然实验,基于2004—2019年中国272个城市的平衡面板数据,运用合成控制法、双重差分法和空间杜宾模型,探究低碳试点政策影响城市大气环境的作用机制及空间效应。研究发现:①低碳试点城市的大气环境质量较非试点城市得到提升,经稳健性检验后这一结论依然成立。②通过异质性分析发现,低碳试点政策对地级市和非资源城市大气环境的改善效应更为显著;相较于特大城市和小城市,大中城市更有利于放大低碳试点的政策效应。③机制分析发现,低碳试点政策通过减排溢出效应、绿色创新效应和外资限流效应促进试点城市大气环境质量的提升。④低碳试点城市的大气环境改善效应存在正向空间溢出,试点邻近城市的大气环境因此得到治理。

The AIMS Site Survey

This paper reports site survey results for the Infrared System for the Accurate Measurement of Solar Magnetic Field, especially in Saishiteng Mountain, Qinghai, China. Since 2017, we have installed a weather station,spectrometers for precipitable water vapor, and Solar Differential Image Motion Monitor, and have carried out observations on weather elements, precipitable water vapor, and daytime seeing conditions for more than one year in almost all candidates. At Mt. Saishiteng, the median value of daytime precipitable water vapor is 5.25 mm and its median value in winter season is 2.1 mm. The median value of the Fried parameter of daytime seeing observation at Saishiteng Mountain is 3.42 cm. Its solar direct radiation data show that solar average observable time is 446 minutes per day and premium time is 401 minutes per day in 2019 August.