ARDL Investigation of Macroeconomic Mechanisms on ASEAN-5 Stock Earnings Equation

The objective of Autoregressive Distributed Lag （ARDL） investigation of macroeconomic mechanisms on ASEAN-5 stock earnings equation can contribute to analyzing and demonstrating macroeconomic forces acting a statistically and economically significant effect on rate of return of securities for a given time through the application of the ARDL approach to cointegration when the variables are mixed degrees of integration in cointegrated time series, i.e. I（0） and I（1）. This results in a long-run or a short-run relationship between macroeconomic force acting for a given time affecting 24 quarterly rates of return for listed companies in Information and Communication Technologies OCT） sector of Stock Exchange of Thailand （SET）, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index （KLSE） index （Malaysia）, Financial Times Share Index （FTSI）, Philippine Stock Exchange （PSE）, and Jakarta Composite Index （JKSE） （Indonesia）. The impulses of three ASEAN macroeconomic forces---GDPt, EXt, and INTt acting for a given time influence the earnings of selected 23 1CT returns for listed companies on both domestic investments and outsider investments in the same period. This paper has investigated how other-concerning macroeconomic force acting might interrelate with rate of return of securities in the ICT sector, debt and financial innovations, in line with some significant formalized facts. The funding of capital inflow in part of ICT securities was statistically globally significant to recognize significant achievement in ICT specific pathways to distinction as the science of accomplishment. The public sector performing as a key purchaser of ICT security solutions related to integrate the ASEAN exchange members into modern capitalization can lead to adverse effects, such as risky investment-hub interventions due to the mixing financial systems in three ASEAN regional integrations through investments.

Determinants of Commercial Bank Financial Performance:Empirical Evidence From Ethiopia

The study examines factors that determine the financial performance of commercial banks in Ethiopia by using time series data over the period 2004-2019 on the sample of seven banks using secondary data.Moreover,the autoregressive distributed lag model was used.Under this study,both internal and external factors were included as the determinants of bank performance which was measured by loan-to-deposit ratio.The internal factors used in this study include capital adequacy ratio,non-performing loan and loan growth while the external factors are real GDP growth and inflation.Based on the results,specific variables except non-performing loan capital adequacy and loan growth affect banks performance significantly in the long run.In the short run,in addition to those two variables,non-performing loan also affects bank performance.Real GDP growth has negative significant effect on the banks performance in both long and short run.Inflation has insignificant effects on bank performances in both long and short run.

A Panel Data Analysis of the Impact of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Remittances and Foreign Aid on Human Capital Growth and Brain Drain in Africa

The main purpose of this research was to analyze the impact the Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, and foreign aid have had to human capital growth (HCG) and brain drain. The study data were collected from five African countries (Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, and Morocco) from 2009 to 2018. Secondary sources were used in data collection, then autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling was used in the analysis. Before modelling was done, co-integration tests and panel unit were applied. The results revealed that Chinese FDI, remittances, and foreign aid had a significant and positive impact on HCG in the long but not the short-run. Besides, remittances, Chinese FDI, and foreign aid demonstrated significant negative impacts on brain drain in the long term, not in the short term. This study makes important practical and theoretical contributions about the roles of Chinese FDI, remittances, and foreign aid in the reduction of brain drain and the growth of human capital.

The effects of the China–US trade war during 2018–2019 on the Chinese economy:an initial assessment

The China–US trade war during 2018–2019 has attracted attentions from academics,policy makers,businesses and investors around the world.Unlike previous researches which are mainly based on hypothetical scenarios,this study looks at the real effects of the China–US trade war on the Chinese economy.Based on either weekly or monthly data during January 2018–December 2019 including creatively using the Google Trends data to measure the severity of the trade war,this study examines the effects of the China–US trade war on Chinese Renminbi,China–US bilateral trade and stock markets.

Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015

In 2015,China and India's population represented approximately 35.74%of the total number of people living in the world.Due to the historical context and behavior of the most relevant indicators,this study proposes to utilize a wide variety of demographic,economic,and production indicators from 1952 to 2015 to assess their impact on the GNI in China and India.A comprehensive and new fangled modeling process with stepwise,regularization and distributed lag regression approaches is presented.Accordingly,theoretical results were corroborated through extensive diagnostic tests and an empirical check of the models'predictive capacity.The findings show that GNI in China is most influenced by variables such as reserves in foreign currency and the dependency ratio;whereas,variables of energy production and birth rate were generated for India.Therefore,it's the timing for China to relax the universal two-child policy.Due to the current value below the substitution rate,a gloomy outlook for China's future population and economy is predicted.Conversely,a positive outlook is forecasted for India,given the low price in the future of oil-India's primary raw material.

The Relationship between Interest Rates and Inflation:Examining the Fisher Effect in China

This study revisits the Fisher effect using a different empirical method that considers a potential nonlinear relationship between interest rates(treasury bond rates)and inflation in China.The rising uncertainty and asymmetric information in financial markets between bond holders and bond issuers suggest such a potential nonlinear relationship.To this aim,we apply Shin et al.'s(2014)nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag(NARDL)model with asymmetric dynamic multipliers for the sample period 2002M7-2018M4.The empirical findings reveal symmetric and asymmetric partial Fisher effects for all sample bond rates in China.Furthermore,we find that 20-year bond rates experience the lowest partial Fisher effect.