The characteristics of dike-break flood in different scenarios of the lower Yellow River based on numerical simulations

The lower Yellow River still faces the threat of flood due to the unusual precipitation caused by global environmental change, river channel sedimentation, hidden danger in the dike and unfavorable river regime of ＂hanging river＂. According to the characteristics of the dike-break flood of the Yellow River, this paper has simulated, in six different scenarios, the dike-break flood routing by inputting the terrain data, typical historical flood data and land use data of study area to two-dimensional unsteady flow model. The results show that： firstly, the routing process of flood will occupy other rivers on the way and return to the rivers after reaching the lower reaches; secondly, in the same river reach, flood inundating area of north band is bigger than that at corresponding location of south bank under the same historical flood; thirdly, it is different in the degree of flood inundation in different regions due to different geographical locations in flood plain; fourthly, the area of mainstream where flood is deep and flow velocity is quick is relatively smaller, but the area of non-mainstream, where flood is shallow and flow velocity is slow, is relatively big; and finally, the possible influenced area of the dike-break flood is 141,948 km^2.

Natural Disasters of the Lower Reaches of Yellow River during the Longshan Period——The Natural Background of Dayu's Flood Control

It is very important to study the archaeological culture and origin of civilization in ancient China.The changes of the channels in the lower reaches of the Yellow River in the prehistoric period are part of the natural environmental background of the development of the ancient civilization in that area to be explored.This paper presents a series of legends,indications,scientific evidence,and macroscopic geographical background information of the evolution in the lower reaches of the Yellow River during the Longshan period.At first the river flowed from Northern Henan and Hebei to southwestern Shandong Province and Northern Anhui–Jiangsu provinces,and the mainstream of the Yellow River changed from the southeast to return to the north and flowed into the Bohai Sea in the late Longshan Period.During this period,floods were frequent.Various ethnic groups in the northern China plains suffered natural disasters and made great migrations which also contributed to the ethnic exchanges and integration.The people of the Central Plains made more dynamic adjustments in the relationship between mankind and the land by primitively escaping from the water and self–defensively controlling the rivers then to maintaining the local ecological environment by large–scale flood control measures,which promoted the settlement of Shandong,Henan,Jiangsu and Anhui provinces,the urban cultural development,and social evolution.Based on these events,the culture symbol of Dayu's Flood Control could be formed.

Evaluation of dynamic characteristics of silt in Yellow River Flood Field after freeze-thaw cycles

Frothing is a main disease of highways in Yellow River Flood Field, due to the loss of dynamic strength of roadbed soils under the couple effects of temperature, salt, and vehicle traffic load. This is strongly linked to the dynamic characteristics of silt in this region. To analyze these couple effects on the dynamic characteristics of silt, a series of tests(i.e., freeze-thaw cycling tests, vibration triaxial tests and ultrasonic wave velocity tests) were conducted and two kinds of silt(i.e., salt-free and 3%-salt silt) were designed. The results indicate that the dynamic shear strength and dynamic modulus decrease with increasing freeze-thaw cycles, while the damping ratio simultaneously increases. Furthermore, compared to salt-free silt, the decrement of dynamic shear strength and dynamic modulus of silt with 3% salt is more significant, but the damping ratio of 3%-salt silt is larger. In ultrasonic wave velocity tests, ultrasonic wave velocity of frozen soil specimens decreases as the number of freeze-thaw cycles increases. Based on the results of ultrasonic wave velocity tests, a preliminary model is proposed to evaluate damage of silt through field measurement ultrasonic data. The study could provide a theoretical basis for the treatment of silty soil highway.

Flood Risk Forecasting and Early Warning Technology for Medium and Small Rivers in the Yellow River Basin Induced by Heavy Rain

The Yellow River Basin is one of the important sand-producing and sediment-transporting areas in China,and one of the three most important sand-producing areas in the world.The amount of sand and dust days in the“Three Norths”(Dongbei,Xibei,and Huabei)area has increased,and regional sand and dust storms have occurred frequently.There are generally more serious hidden danger points of debris flow geological disasters in small and medium-sized river basins.The technical achievements of flood risk forecasting and early warning for medium and small rivers in the Yellow River Basin based on rainstorm-induced floods are important technical supports for flood forecasting and early warning for medium and small rivers.Based on this,a case study was carried out on the problems such as the weak forecasting and early warning ability of flood disasters induced by heavy rain and the low accuracy of flood disaster loss assessment in the flood disasters of medium and small rivers,for the reference of relevant personnel.

Yellow River Valley flood and drought disaster：spatial－temporal distribution prediction and early－warning

By means of analysing the historical data of flood-drought grade series in the past 2000 years(A.D.0-1900),especially in the last 5000 years (1470-1900) , this paper revealed the spatial-temporaldistribution features of severe flood and drought in Yellow River Valley. Statistical methods of varianceanalysis, probability transition and the principles of scale correspondence were employed tocomprehensively predicate 90's tendency of severe flood and drought in the Yellow River Valley. In addi-tion, this paper pointed out the possible breaching dikes, sectors and the flooding ranges by future's se-vere flood, meanwhile estimating the associated economic losses and impact to environment.

Efficiency of sediment transport by flood and its control in the Lower Yellow River

This paper presents the characteristics of sediment transport by flood in the Lower Yellow River with the reach from Huayuankou to Gaocun, which is regarded as a typical braided pattern. The Artificial Neural Network Model on Water Use for Sediment Transport (WUST) by flood was established based on the measured data from 1980 to 1998. Consequently, simulations of controlling process of sediment transport by flood were made in terms of the control theory under different scenarios. According to the situation of sediment transport by flood in the Lower Yellow River, Open-Loop control system and feedback control system were adopted in system design. In the Open-Loop control system, numerical simulations were made to reveal the relationship between average discharge of flood and the WUST with varying sediment concentrations. The results demonstrate that sediment concentration has significant influence on the controlling process of flood flow to WUST. It is practical and efficient to control WUST if sediment concentration is less than 20 kg/m3. In the feedback control system, controlling processes of sediment concentration and flood discharge for sediment transport were simulated respectively under given conditions, and it was found that sediment transport process could be controlled completely by sediment concentration and discharge at the inlet of the reach from Huayuankou to Gaocun. Using the same method, controlling processes of sediment transport by flood in other reaches in the Lower Yellow River were also simulated. For the case of sediment concentration being 20 kg/m3, the optimized controlling discharge ranges from 2390 to 2900 m3/s in the lower reach of Huayuankou. This study is also of significance to flood control and flushing sediment in the Lower Yellow River with proper operation modes of Xiaolangdi Reservoir.

Response of flood discharging capacity to the deterioration of the lower Yellow River

Based on the clarifications of the deterioration characteristics of the lower Yellow River (LYR), the influence of river deterioration on flood discharging capacity is studied through theoretical derivation and analysis of field data. This study indicates that response of flood discharging capacity to river deterioration is nonlinear. Sediment depositions in the main channel cause the reductions of dominant discharge and thus the increase of initial flood stage. Reductions in the channel width result in the increases of the rising rate of flood stage and the decrease of flood discharging capacity.

Adjustment of flood discharge capacity with varying boundary conditions in a braided reach of the Lower Yellow River

It is of necessity to investigate the adjustment of flood discharge capacity in the Lower Yellow River(LYR)because of its profound importance in sediment transport and flood control decision-making,and additionally its magnitude is influenced by the channel and upstream boundary conditions,which have significantly varied with the ongoing implementation of soil and water conservation measures in the Loess Plateau and the operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir.The braided reach between two hydrometric stations of Huayuankou and Gaocun in the LYR was selected as the study area.Different parameters in the study reach during the period 1986-2015 were calculated,covering bankfull discharge(the indicator of flood discharge capacity),the pre-flood geomorphic coefficient(the indicator of channel boundary condition),and the previous five-year average fluvial erosion intensity during flood seasons(the indicator of incoming flow and sediment regime).Functional linkages at scales of section and reach were then developed respectively to quantitatively demonstrate the integrated effects of channel and upstream boundary conditions on the flood discharge capacity.Results show that:(1)the reach-scale bankfull discharge in the pre-dam stage(1986-1999)decreased rapidly by 50%,accompanied with severe channel aggradation and main-channel shrinkage.It recovered gradually as the geometry of main channel became narrower and deeper in the post-dam stage,with the geomorphic coefficient continuously reducing to less than 15 m-12.(2)The response of bankfull discharge to the channel and upstream boundary conditions varied at scales of section and reach,and consequently the determination coefficients differed for the comprehensive equations,with a smallest value at the Jiahetan station and a highest value(0.91)at reach scale.Generally,the verified results calculated using the comprehensive equations agreed well with the corresponding measured values in 2014-2015.(3)The effect of channel boundary condition was more prominent than that of upstream boundary condition on the adjustment of bankfull discharge at the Jiahetan station and the braided reach,which was proved by a larger improvement in determination coefficients for the comprehensive equations and a better performance of geomorphic coefficient on the increase of bankfull discharge.

Sediment delivery ratio and its uncertainties on flood event scale:Quantification for the Lower Yellow River

Sediment delivery ratio(SDR)for fluvial rivers was formulated with sediment rating curve.The observed data of SDR on flood event scale of the Lower Yellow River(LYR)were adopted to examine the formulation and to calibrate the model parameters.A regression formula of SDR was then established and its 95%prediction interval was accordingly quantified to represent its overall uncertainties.Three types of factors including diversity of the incoming flow conditions,river self-regulation processes,and human activities were ascribed to the uncertainties.The following were shown:(1)With the incoming sediment coefficient(ISC)being a variable,it was not necessary to adopt the incoming flow discharge as the second variable in the formulation of SDR;and(2)ISC=0.003 and therefore SDR=2 might be a threshold for distinguishing the characteristics of sediment transport within the LYR.These findings would highlight sediment transport characteristics on the scale of flood event and contribute to uncertainty based analysis of water volume required for sediment transport and channel maintenance of the LYR.

On the geo-basis of river regulation in the lower reaches of the Yellow River

This paper investigates the important scientific problem of river regulation strategies in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, and discusses the "geo-basis" of river regulation. The concept of a geo-basis to river regulation in the lower Yellow River was discussed in terms of subsidence and sedimentation features of the fiver plain; channel features, erosion characteristics of the Loess Plateau and storm-flood features of the middle and lower reaches. The geographic features of the lower Yellow River have gradually changed since the Holocene but there has been no fundamental change. Based on an analysis of the geo-attributes of the lower reaches of the Yellow River, several conclusions on its river regulation were made. The release of sediment should be the first measure of river regulation because of deposition in the lower reaches. The fiver channels should be provided with adequate space for wandering in the lower reaches. The tail river should be also provided with necessary wandering space because of weak marine dynamics in the estuary area and changes in the delta. Because the erosion environ- ment of the Loess Plateau will not fundamentally change, river harnessing of the middle reaches should focus on improving the plateau morphology, which can be done by reducing the fragmentation of terrain and building a planation surface. Eco- remediation should focus on converting farmland to grassland. There may be extreme floods in the future, as has occurred pre- viously, thus an extreme flood defense system should be considered for the lower reaches. A periodic law for regulation in the Yellow River is discussed. We also discuss how the current use of the lower reaches of the Yellow River is unsustainable and it is urgent to research artificial rechanneling and the creation of new flow paths for the lower reaches.

On the variation of water resource structure in the Lower Yellow River

In view of river functions and the Minimum Water Demand for River Ecosystem (MWDRE), the water resources in the Lower Yellow River is further divided into three portions, i.e. water available for ecosystem (WE), water exploitable for socioeconomic purposes (WS) and excess flood water (WF). Corresponding conceptions and practical significances are expounded in details. The annual amount of the three portions of water resources from 1950 to 2001 is worked out on the basis of the daily hydrologic data, and the division of different portions is discussed. The results indicate that although the essential water demand for river functions is considered preferentially, the amount of the WE has decreased dramatically while its proportion increased gradually since the 1950s, and the shortage to the MWDRE increased markedly; both the amount and the proportion of the WS decreased notably. Since the 1990s, the actual water consumption for socioeconomic purposes in the lower reaches of the river basin has already exceeded the maximum amount of the WS and has to take over the WE which is already insufficient, hence not only the normal river functions are further disturbed and the river course shrinks greatly, but also the proportion and potential danger of the WF show no decreasing tendency in spite of the sharp decrease of upstream runoff.

A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR UNSTEADY SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN NINGXIA REACH OF THE YELLOW RIVER

A one-dimensional mathematical model for unsteady sediment transport in the Ningxia reach of the Yellow River was developed. In the model, the formulas for the sediment carrying capacity and the manning roughness coefficient, which reflect the features of the Yellow River, were adopted. A coefficient of sediment distribution was defined to represent the ratio of the bottom to the average concentration under the equilibrium conditions, which is not constant and is evaluated by using an empirical expression obtained by integrating the sediment concentration along water depth. The concentration distributions and the mean diameter distributions of suspended sediment in the transversal direction were also estimated in this model. A four-point (Preismann type) finite difference scheme and TDMA were employed in the numerical simulation. The amount of sediment deposition during the period of 1993～1999 in the Ningxia reach of the Yellow River from Xiaheyan to Shizuishan with a length of 197.43km were numerically simulated with the model. The computed results, such as the amount of sediment deposition and water stage agree well with the field data. Finally the validated model was used to predict the riverbed deformation during the period of 1999～2019 in the Ningxia reach of the Yellow River.

基于EOF和REOF的1470—1911年黄河中下游地区旱涝空间分布特征分析

基于通过历史文献资料重建的1470-1911年黄河中下游地区36个站点的历史旱涝等级序列和矢量化的历史地图,利用EOF、REOF方法分析旱涝灾害空间特征。EOF方法展开的结果表明:前4个模态累计方差贡献率为71.85%,主要表现为第一、二、四特征向量场呈经向带状分布,第三特征向量场呈纬向分布;第一特征向量场的空间分布均为正值,说明黄河中下游地区的旱涝变化具有一致性,但是其余各特征向量场之间特点差异明显,说明在不同背景场和影响条件下,旱涝变化还存在较多局域性特征;REOF展开的结果可将黄河中下游地区旱涝划分为5个典型的敏感气候分区,这为进一步研究该区旱涝变化的区域性特征奠定了基础。

An Experiment on Releasing Water from Water Tanks by Xu Youzhen during the Ming Dynasty

In 1453,Xu Youzhen,a scholar-bureaucrat and hydrologist in Ming China,was dispatched to Shandong to find a way to harness the Yellow River.He proposed the opening up of multiple channels to diverge the flood waters.An experiment was conducted to compare the efficiency of releasing water using one large opening with the use of a number of small openings.This experiment proved that opening up multiple channels outperformed the construction of only one,thereby convincing the emperor and officials of the efficacy of this method.Xu’s method for water control proved to be successful in averting a flood that occurred in 1456.

龙羊峡水库后汛期入库径流特征及可蓄水量分析

以1956—2022年唐乃亥水文站实测水文数据为基础,采用数理统计方法,重点分析黄河源区后汛期径流特征,并结合龙羊峡水库满负荷发电流量,对龙羊峡水库在后汛期可蓄水量进行不同情景的分析讨论。研究表明:1)唐乃亥水文站后汛期径流量年际变化较大,丰枯不均,以正常偏枯为主,多年平均后汛期径流量占汛期径流量的29.1%;2)唐乃亥水文站后汛期日平均流量在1000 m^(3)/s以上的径流量平均为8.96亿m^(3),年际变化极大,以1000 m^(3)/s发电流量运用,龙羊峡水库蓄至正常蓄水位的保证率仅为10%,多数年份汛期结束后水位无法达到正常蓄水位2600 m。建议根据后期来水,适时调整进入后汛期的时机,优化和调整龙羊峡水库年度调度方案,为高效合理利用黄河源区后汛期水资源奠定基础。

黄河下游花园口至孙口河段高效输沙洪水阈值研究

河流能量耗散率变化反映了河道水沙输移能力以及河床形态的调整规律。本文研究区域为黄河下游花园口至孙口河段,从能量耗散角度出发,结合对实测资料的统计分析,探究了河流边界阻力能耗率与来水来沙、断面形态以及河床稳定性之间的定量关系,并基于边界阻力能耗率与河床稳定性双重指标,确定了花园口至孙口河段的高效输沙洪水阈值。研究结果表明:流量是影响边界阻力能耗率的主要因素,并与边界阻力能耗率的幂次呈线性相关;随着流量增大到2000 m^(3)/s以上,边界阻力能耗率随含沙量增加呈先减弱后增强的趋势。大流量条件下边界阻力能耗率与宽深比呈负相关关系,花园口与夹河滩断面形态复杂,相关性较弱;相比之下高村与孙口断面形态简单,相关性增强。非恒定水沙条件下的河床大多处于失稳状态,在综合考虑河床形态稳定及边界阻力能耗率最低的前提下,计算得出花园口至孙口河段的洪水高效输沙临界流量约为1500 m^(3)/s,含沙量约为23 kg/m^(3)。

干旱区与湿润区旱涝急转演变特征对比研究

以长江、黄河和淮河流域为研究对象,基于标准化旱涝急转指数,利用趋势分析、变点检验、小波分析、随机森林等方法探究典型干旱区与湿润区旱涝急转演变特征及其驱动因子。结果表明:湿润和半湿润区是极端旱涝急转事件的高频发生区,干旱区是极端旱转涝事件的高频发生区;干旱区的突变发生在1998年,湿润区的突变在1978年,未来干旱区更易发生旱转涝事件,湿润区则相反;气象因子在湿润区对旱涝急转的贡献度更大,大气环流对干旱区的影响突出,旱涝急转与不同驱动因子间存在非线性关系。