Comparison of Microphysical Characteristics Between Warm-sector and Frontal Heavy Rainfall in the South of China

During the April-June raining season,warm-sector heavy rainfall(WR) and frontal heavy rainfall(FR) often occur in the south of China,causing natural disasters.In this study,the microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events from 2016 to 2022 are analyzed by using 2-dimensional video disdrometer(2DVD) data in the south of China.The microphysical characteristics of WR and FR events are quite different.Compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D<5.3 mm(especially D <1 mm),leading to higher rain rates.The mean values of Dmand lgNwof WR events are higher than that of FR events.The microphysical characteristics in different rain rate classes(C1:R~5-20 mm h-1,C2:R~20-50 mm h-1,C3:R~50-100 mm h^(-1),and C4:R> 100 mm h^(-1)) for WR and FR events are also different.Raindrops from C3 contribute the most to the precipitation of WR events,and raindrops from C2 contribute the most to the precipitation of FR events.For C2 and C3,compared with FR events,WR events have higher concentration of D <1 mm and D~3-4.5 mm.Moreover,the shape and slope(μ-A) relationships and the radar reflectivity and rain rate(Z-R) relationships of WR and FR events are quite different in each rain rate class.The investigation of the difference in microphysical characteristics between WR and FR events provide useful information for radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation and numerical prediction.

Forecast Performance of the Pre-operational CMA-TRAMS(EPS)in South China During April-September 2020

The mesoscale ensemble prediction system based on the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS(EPS))has been pre-operational since April 2020 at South China Regional Meteorological Center(SCRMC),which was developed by the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology(GITMM).To better understand the performance of the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)and provide guidance to forecasters,we assess the performance of this system on both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from April to September 2020 in this study through objective verification.Compared with the control(deterministic)forecasts,the ensemble mean of the CMATRAMS(EPS)shows advantages in most non-precipitation variables.In addition,the threat score indicates that the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)obviously improves light and heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of the probability-matched mean.Compared with the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts operational ensemble prediction system(ECMWF-EPS),the CMA-TRAMS(EPS)improves the probabilistic forecasts of light rainfall in terms of accuracy,reliability and discrimination,and this system also improves the heavy rainfall forecasts in terms of discrimination.Moreover,two typical heavy rainfall cases in south China during the pre-summer rainy season are investigated to visually demonstrate the deterministic and probabilistic forecasts,and the results of these two cases indicate the differences and advantages(deficiencies)of the two ensemble systems.

An Extreme Monsoonal Heavy Rainfall Event over Inland South China in June 2022: A Synoptic Causes Analysis

An extreme monsoonal heavy rainfall event lasted for nine days and recurred in the interior of northern south China from June 13 to 21, 2022. Using regional meteorological stations and ERA5 reanalysis data, the causes of this extreme monsoonal rainfall event in south China were analyzed and diagnosed. The results are shown as follows. A dominant South Asian high tended to be stable near the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, providing favorable upper-level dispersion conditions for the occurrence of heavy rainfall in south China. A western Pacific subtropical high dominated the eastern part of the South China Sea, favoring stronger and more northward transport of water vapor to the northern part of south China at lower latitudes than normal. The continuous heavy precipitation event can be divided into two stages. The first stage(June 13-15) was the frontal heavy rainfall caused by cold air(brought by an East Asian trough)from the mid-latitudes that converged with a monsoonal airflow. The heavy rains occurred mostly in the area near a shear in front of the center of a synoptic-system-related low-level jet(SLLJ), and the jet stream and precipitation were strongest in the daytime. The second stage(June 16-21) was the warm-sector heavy rainfall caused by a South China Sea monsoonal low-level jet penetrating inland. The heavy rainfall occurred on the windward slope of the Nanling Mountains and in the northern part of a boundary layer jet(BLJ). The BLJ experienced five nighttime enhancements, corresponding well with the enhancement of the rainfall center, showing significant nighttime heavy rainfall characteristics. Finally, a conceptual diagram of inland-type warm-sector heavy rainfall in south China is summarized.

Influence of South China Sea SST and the ENSO on Winter Rainfall over South China

The present study investigates the influence of South China Sea （SCS） SST and ENSO on winter （January-February-March; JFM） rainfall over South China and its dynamic processes by using station observations for the period 1951-2003, Met Office Hadley Center SST data for the period 1900-2008, and ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1958-2002. It is found that JFM rainfall over South China has a sig- nificant correlation with Nio-3 and SCS SST. Analyses show that in El Nio or positive SCS SST anomaly years, southwesterly anomalies at 700 hPa dominate over the South China Sea, which in turn transports more moisture into South China and favors increased rainfall. A partial regression analysis indicates that the independent ENSO influence on winter rainfall occurs mainly over South China, whereas SCS SST has a larger independent influence on winter rainfall in northern part of South China. The temperature over South China shows an obvious decrease at 300 hPa and an increase near the surface, with the former induced by Nio-3 and the latter SCS SST anomalies. This enhances the convective instability and weakens the potential vorticity （PV）, which explains the strengthening of ascending motion and the increase of JFM rainfall over South China.

THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT PHYSICAL PROCESSES AND THEIR PARAMETERIZATIONS ON FORECAST OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOUTH CHINA IN ANNUALLY FIRST RAINING SEASON

An ensemble prediction system based on the GRAPES model, using multi-physics, is used to discuss the influence of different physical processes in numerical models on forecast of heavy rainfall in South China in the annually first raining season(AFRS). Pattern, magnitude and area of precipitation, evolution of synoptic situation, as well as apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink between different ensemble members are comparatively analyzed. The choice of parameterization scheme for land-surface processes gives rise to the largest influence on the precipitation prediction. The influences of cumulus-convection and cloud-microphysics processes are mainly focused on heavy rainfall;the use of cumulus-convection parameterization tends to produce large-area and light rainfall. Change in parameterization schemes for land-surface and cumulus-convection processes both will cause prominent change in forecast of both dynamic and thermodynamic variables, while change in cloud-microphysics processes show primary impact on dynamic variables. Comparing simplified Arakawa-Schubert and Kain-Fritsch with Betts-Miller-Janjic schemes, SLAB with NOAH schemes, as well as both WRF single moment 6-class and NCEP 3-class with simplified explicit schemes of phase-mixed cloud and precipitation shows that the former predicts stronger low-level jets and high humidity concentration, more convective rainfall and local heavy rainfall, and have better performance in precipitation forecast. Appropriate parameterization schemes can reasonably describe the physical process related to heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS, such as low-level convergence, latent heat release, vertical transport of heat and water vapor, thereby depicting the multi-scale interactions of low-level jet and meso-scale convective systems in heavy rainfall suitably, and improving the prediction of heavy rainfall in South China in the AFRS as a result.

Temporal Variations of the Frontal and Monsoon Storm Rainfall during the First Rainy Season in South China

The temporal variations in storm rainfall during the first rainy season (FRS) in South China (SC) are investigated in this study. The results show that the inter-annual variations in storm rainfall during the FRS in SC seem to be mainly influenced by the frequency of storm rainfall, while both frequency and intensity affect the inter-decadal variations in the total storm rainfall. Using the definitions for the beginning and ending dates of the FRS, and the onset dates of the summer monsoon in SC, the FRS is further divided into two sub-periods, i.e., the frontal and monsoon rainfall periods. The inter-annual and inter-decadal variations in storm rainfall during these two periods are investigated here. The results reveal a significant out-of-phase correlation between the frontal and monsoon storm rainfall, especially on the inter-decadal timescale, the physical mechanism for which requires further investigation.

Predictability of Winter Rainfall in South China as Demonstrated by the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES

Winter rainfall over South China shows strong interannual variability,which accounts for about half of the total winter rainfall over South China.This study investigated the predictability of winter （December-January-February; DJF） rainfall over South China using the retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models included in the ENSEMBLES project for the period 1961-2006.It was found that the ENSEMBLES models predicted the interannual variation of rainfall over South China well,with the correlation coefficient between the observed/station-averaged rainfall and predicted/areaaveraged rainfall being 0.46.In particular,above-normal South China rainfall was better predicted,and the correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed anomalies was 0.64 for these wetter winters.In addition,the models captured well the main features of SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies related to South China rainfall variation in the observation.It was further found that South China rainfall,when predicted according to predicted DJF Nifio3.4 index and the ENSO-South China rainfall relationship,shows a prediction skill almost as high as that directly predicted,indicating that ENSO is the source for the predictability of South China rainfall.

IMPACTS OF MONTHLY ANOMALIES OF INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SOUTH ASIA ON THE ACTIVITY OF SUMMER MONSOON AND RAINFALL IN EASTERN CHINA

The impact of strong(weak) intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) over South China Sea(SCS) and South Asia(SA)in summer on the SCS and SA summer monsoon and the summer rainfall in Eastern China are studied by using the NCEP-NCAR analysis data and the rainfall data of 160 stations in China from 1961 to 2010.It is found that the impacts are significantly different in different months of summer.The study shows that in June and July cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS and SA corresponds to strong(weak) ISO over SCS.In August,however,strong(weak) ISO over SCS still corresponds to cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA.In June and August cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over South Asia corresponds to strong(weak) ISO over SA while a strong(weak) ISO corresponds to anticyclonic(cyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SA in July.Besides,in June the strong(weak) ISO over SA corresponds to cyclonic(anticyclonic) atmospheric circulation over SCS,while in July and August the atmospheric circulation is in the same phase regardless of whether the ISO over SA is strong or weak.The impacts of the strong(weak)ISO over SCS on the rainfall of eastern China are similar in June and July,which favors less(more) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin but sufficient(deficient) rainfall in the south of Yangtze River.However,the impacts are not so apparent in August.In South Asia,the strong(weak) ISO in July results in less(more)rainfall in the south of Yangtze River but sufficient(deficient) rainfall in Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basin.The influence on the rainfall in eastern China in June and August is not as significant as in July.

Energy Paths that Sustain the Warm-Sector Torrential Rainfall over South China and Their Contrasts to the Frontal Rainfall: A Case Study

Predicting warm-sector torrential rainfall over South China,which is famous for its destructive power,is one of the most challenging issues of the current numerical forecast field.Insufficient understanding of the key mechanisms underlying this type of event is the root cause.Since understanding the energetics is crucial to understanding the evolutions of various types of weather systems,a general methodology for investigating energetics of torrential rainfall is provided in this study.By applying this methodology to a persistent torrential rainfall event which had concurrent frontal and warm-sector precipitation,the first physical image on the energetics of the warm-sector torrential rainfall is established.This clarifies the energy sources for producing the warm-sector rainfall during this event.For the first time,fundamental similarities and differences between the warm-sector and frontal torrential rainfall are shown in terms of energetics.It is found that these two types of rainfall mainly differed from each other in the lower-tropospheric dynamical features,and their key differences lay in energy sources.Scale interactions(mainly through downscale energy cascade and transport)were a dominant factor for the warm-sector torrential rainfall during this event,whereas,for the frontal torrential rainfall,they were only of secondary importance.Three typical signals in the background environment are found to have supplied energy to the warm-sector torrential rainfall,with the quasi-biweekly oscillation having contributed the most.

Interannual Relationship between the Winter Aleutian Low and Rainfall in the Following Summer in South China

Using observations and reanalysis data, this study investigates the interannual relationship between the winter Aleutian Low(AL) and the rainfall anomalies in the following summer in South China(SC). Results show that the winter AL is significantly positively(negatively) correlated with the SC rainfall anomalies in the following July(August). Specifically, SC rainfall anomalies have a tendency to be positive(negative) in July(August) when the preceding winter AL is stronger than normal. The winter AL-related atmospheric circulation anomalies in the following summer are also examined. When the winter AL is stronger, there is a significant anticyclonic(cyclonic) circulation anomaly over the subtropical western North Pacific in the following July(August). Southerly(northerly) wind anomalies to the west of this anomalous anticyclonic(cyclonic) circulation increase(decrease) the northward moisture transportation and contribute to the positive(negative) rainfall anomalies over SC in July(August). This study indicates that the AL in the preceding winter can be used as a potential predictor of the rainfall anomalies in the following July and August over SC.

Controls on the Northward Movement of the ITCZ over the South China Sea in Autumn:A Heavy Rain Case Study

The autumn Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ)over the South China Sea(SCS)is typically held south of 10°N by prevailing northeasterly and weakening southwesterly winds.However,the ITCZ can move north,resulting in heavy rainfall in the northern SCS(NSCS).We investigate the mechanisms that drove the northward movement of the ITCZ and led to heavy non-tropical-cyclone rainfall over the NSCS in autumn of 2010.The results show that the rapid northward movement of the ITCZ on 1 and 2 October was caused by the joint influence of the equatorial easterlies(EE),southwesterly winds,and the easterly jet(EJ)in the NSCS.A high pressure center on the east side of Australia,strengthened by the quasi-biweekly oscillation and strong Walker circulation,was responsible for the EE to intensify and reach the SCS.The EE finally turned southeast and together with enhanced southwesterly winds associated with an anticyclone,pushed the ITCZ north.Meanwhile,the continental high moved east,which reduced the area of the EJ in the NSCS and made room for the ITCZ.Further regression analysis showed that the reduced area of the EJ and increased strength of the EE contributed significantly to the northward movement of the ITCZ.The enhancement of the EE preceded the northward movement of the ITCZ by six hours and pushed the ITCZ continually north.As the ITCZ approached 12°N,it not only transported warm moist air but also strengthened the dynamic field by transporting the positive vorticity horizontally and vertically which further contributed to the heavy rainfall.

Imprint of the ENSO on Rainfall and Latent Heating Variability over the Southern South China Sea from TRMM Observations

Analyses of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） datasets revealed a prominent interannual variation in the convective-stratiform rainfall and latent heating over the southern South China Sea （SCS） during the winter monsoon between 1998 and 2010. Although the height of maximum latent heating remained nearly constant at around 7km in all of the years, the year-to- year changes in the magnitudes of maximum latent heating over the region were noticeable. The interannual variations of the convee- tive-stratiform rainfall and latent heating over the southern SCS were highly anti-correlated with the Nifio-3 index, with more （less） rainfall and latent heating during La Nifia （El Nifio） years. Analysis of the large-scale environment revealed that years of active rain- fall and latent heating corresponded to years of large deep convergence and relative humidity at 600hPa. The moisture budget diag- nosis indicated that the interarmual variation of humidity at 600hPa was largely modulated by the vertical moisture advection. The year-to-year changes in rainfall over the southern SCS were mainly caused by the interannual variations of the dynamic component associated with anomalous upward motions in the middle troposphere, while the interannual variations of the thermodynamic com- ponent associated with changes in surface specific humidity played a minor role. Larger latent heating over the southern SCS during La Nifia years may possibly further enhance the local Hadley circulation over the SCS in the wintertime.

Key Deviation Analysis of Initial Fields on Ensemble Forecast in South China During the Rainfall Event on May 21,2020

Extreme rainfall is common from May to October in south China.This study investigates the key deviation of initial fields on ensemble forecast of a persistent heavy rainfall event from May 20 to 22,2020 in Guangdong Province,south China by comparing ensemble members with different performances.Based on the rainfall distribution and pattern,two types are selected for analysis compared with the observed precipitation.Through the comparison of the thermal and dynamic fields in the middle and lower layers,it can be found that the thermal difference between the middle and lower layers was an important factor which led to the deviation of precipitation distribution.The dynamic factors also have some effects on the precipitation area although they were not as important as the thermal factors in this case.Correlating accumulated precipitation with atmospheric state variables further corroborates the above conclusion.This study suggests that the uncertainty of the thermal and dynamic factors in the numerical model can have a strong impact on the quantitative skills of heavy rainfall forecasts.

Origins of intraseasonal rainfall variations over the southern South China Sea in boreal winter

This study investigates the origins of intraseasonal rainfall variations over the southern South China Sea（SCS） region in boreal winter.It is found that intraseasonal rainfall variations over the southern SCS have different origins on the 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales.On the 10-20-day time scale,large rainfall anomalies over the southern SCS are preceded by strong northerly wind anomalies associated with the East Asian winter monsoon（EAWM）,by about two days.On the 30-60-day time scale,the strong EAWM-related northerly wind anomalies almost appear simultaneously with large rainfall anomalies over the southern SCS.In addition,obvious large rainfall anomalies occur over the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean about one week before the peak southern SCS rainfall anomalies.It indicates that the convection and related circulation anomalies with origins over the tropical Indian Ocean may play an important role in inducing intraseasonal rainfall variations over the southern SCS on the 30-60-day time scale,but not on the 10-20-day time scale.

Subseasonal variation of winter rainfall anomalies over South China during the mature phase of super El Ni?o events

The authors explore the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)of rainfall anomalies in South China,the related circulation regimes,and discuss the possible causes of the large variability of the positive rainfall anomalies over South China during the winter of the 1982/83,1997/98 and 2015/16 super EI Nino events.Case-by-case analysis shows that the 10–20-day ISO associated with the successive heavy rainfall events lead to the positive anomalies of winter rainfall in the three winters.Meanwhile,the 20–50-day ISO is relatively stronger in the winter of 1982/83 and 2015/16 but weaker in the winter of 1997/98.Except for a different speed,the anomalies of the 200-hPa wave train associated with the two ISOs both propagate eastward along the westerly jet between 20 N and 30 N.In the winter of 1982/83 and 2015/16,when the upper-level subseasonal wave trains in different periods pass through South China,the in-phase enhancement of upper-level divergences and the pumping effect could induce the persistent heavy rainfall events,which facilitate the stronger seasonal-mean rainfall.Although the 10–20-day ISO alone in the winter of 1997/98 could cause the higher-frequency rainfall events,the weaker 20–50-day ISO attenuates the anomalies of the South China winter rainfall.Therefore,the joint effects of the 10–20-and 20–50-day ISOs are critical for the larger amount of above-normal rainfall over South China during the mature phase of super EI Nino events.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF INFLUENCE OF THE SSTA IN WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL ON RAINFALL IN THE FIRST FLOOD PERIOD IN SOUTH CHINA

A brief introduction of a global atmospheric circulation model CCM3, which is used to simulate the precipitation in China, the height and the flow fields of the atmosphere, is made and the reliability of simulation is analyzed. According to the negative correlation between rainfall in the first flood period in South China (FFSC) and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in a key region in western Pacific warm pool (West Region), two sensitive experiments are designed to investigate the effects of the latter on the former and the possible physical mechanism is discussed. It is found that in cold water (warm water) years, the rainfall in South China (SC) is far more (less) than normal, while the rainfall in the middle and low reaches of the Yangtze River is relatively less (more). The best correlative area of precipitation is located in Guangdong Province. It matches the diagnostic result well. The effect of SSTA on precipitation of FFSC is realized through the abnormality of atmospheric circulation and tested by a P-σnine-layer regional climate model. Moreover, the simulated result of the P-σmodel is basically coincident with that of the CCM3.

Contrasting Impacts of Three Types of ENSO Event on Boreal Autumn Rainfall over Southwest China

The autumn precipitation over southwest China is one of the main causes of meteorological disasters. Using observed monthly station rainfall data and HadISST and NCEP/NCAR analysis data, the impacts of three types of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the boreal autumn rainfall over southwest China were determined. Over southwest China, autumn rainfall constitutes > 20% of the total annual rainfall and a marked decline in autumn rainfall commenced around 1990. During La Niña events, there is surplus (deficit) over the middle (northwest and southeast) of southwest China. In cnetral Pacific (CP) El Niño events, the autumn rainfall anomaly shows a deficiency over China. The large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the three ENSO categories also exhibit distinct characteristics. During CP El Niño autumns, the pressure anomaly over the North Pacific Ocean displays a “” structure, with a high-pressure anomaly over the Asian continent. An anomalous cyclone appears over the western North Pacific (WNP). In EP El Niño autumns, the pressure anomaly over the North Pacific Ocean has a “” structure, with a low-pressure anomaly over the Asian continent. An anomalous anticyclone appears over the WNP and the 500-hPa anomalies are opposite to those of CP El Niño events. During La Niña autumns, the characteristics of circulation present the opposite structure to those of CP El Niño events. This work is of certain significance for an in-depth understanding of the impacts of ENSO on the autumn precipitation over southwest China.

The Longmen Cloud Physics Field Experiment Base, China Meteorological Administration

Aiming at the needs of mechanism analysis of rainstorms and development of numerical prediction models in south China, the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration and the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences jointly set up the Longmen Cloud Physics Field Experiment Base,China Meteorological Administration. This paper introduces the instruments and field experiments of this base, provides an overview of the recent advances in retrieval algorithms of microphysical parameters, improved understanding of microphysical characteristics, as well as the formation mechanisms and numerical prediction of heavy rainfalls in south China based on the field experiments dataset.

Interannual Variability of Autumn Precipitation over South China and its Relation to Atmospheric Circulation and SST Anomalies

The interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its relationship with atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies are examined using the autumn precipitation data of 160 stations in China and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1951 to 2004. Results indicate a strong interannual variability of autumn precipitation over South China and its positive correlation with the autumn western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. In the flood years, the WPSH ridge line lies over the south of South China and the strengthened ridge over North Asia triggers cold air to move southward. Furthermore, there exists a significantly anomalous updraft and cyclone with the northward stream strengthened at 850 hPa and a positive anomaly center of meridional moisture transport strengthening the northward warm and humid water transport over South China. These display the reverse feature in drought years. The autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China correlates positively with SST in the western Pacific and North Pacific, whereas a negative correlation occurs in the South Indian Ocean in July. The time of the strongest lag-correlation coefficients between SST and autumn precipitation over South China is about two months, implying that the SST of the three ocean areas in July might be one of the predictors for autumn precipitation interannual variability over South China. Discussion about the linkage among July SSTs in the western Pacific, the autumn WPSH and autumn precipitation over South China suggests that SST anomalies might contribute to autumn precipitation through its close relation to the autumn WPSH.

Large-scale Circulation Anomalies Associated with Interannual Variation in Monthly Rainfall over South China from May to August

Interannual variation in summer rainfall over South China （SC） was investigated on the monthly timescale.It was found that monthly rainfall from May to August exhibits different features of variation,and the amounts are basically independent of each other.There is a significant negative correlation,however,between May and July SC rainfall,which is partially related to the developing phases of ENSO events.It was also found that stronger （weaker） lower-tropospheric winds over SC and the upstream parts are responsible for more （less） SC rainfall in every month from May to August.Despite this monthly consistent enhancement of horizontal winds,the wind anomalies exhibit distinct differences between May-June and July-August,due to the remarkable change in climatological winds between these two periods.More SC rainfall is associated with a lower-tropospheric anticyclonic anomaly over the SCS and the Philippine Sea in May and June,but with a cyclonic anomaly centered over SC in July and August.