Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.

Assessment of Super Absorbent Polymer (SAP) on Plant Available Water (PAW) in Dry Lands

One of the ways of overcoming the cost of irrigation is through in-situ water harvesting at the plant roots. Super absorbent polymer (SAP) can facilitate water harvesting at the plant roots. This study attempted to assess the effect of SAP on plant available water (PAW) of different soils. In this study, SAP was sequentially added at the rate of 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.5% of the soil weight and its impact assessed in clay, sandy clay and sandy loam soils. The moisture retention characteristics of the original and SAP treated soils were studied using soil water retention curves (SWRC) and results modelled using Gardner model. PAW was estimated from SWRC as the difference between moisture content at 1.5 and 3 bar in all soils. The difference in PAW between original and treated soils was assessed at 5% level of significance. The WRC of all the samples was adequately found to be described by the Gardner model (Coefficient of determination R2 ≥ 98% and residual standard error (RSE) ≤ 0.04). SWRC changed with increase in SAP percentage in clay, sandy clay and sandy loam soils. Clay had a higher change in water retention then sandy clay and lastly sandy loam. Plant available water content (PAW) in all soils increased. In clay soil it increased with increase in SAP from 0.3291 at zero SAP to 0.6223 at 0.5% SAP. Sandy clay soil increased in PAW from 0.2721 at zero SAP to 0.5335 at 0.5% SAP and Sandy loam soils from 0.1691 at zero SAP to 0.3461 at 0.5% SAP. Hence, from the study SAP can be used to conserve irrigation water in the plant roots and therefore reducing the cost since PAW has been increased.

Distribution of available soil water capacity in China

The available soil water capacity (ASWC) is important for studying crop production, agro-ecological zoning, irrigation planning, and land cover changes. Laboratory determined data of ASWC are often not available for most of soil profiles and the nationwide ASWC largely remains lacking in relevant soil data in China. This work was to estimate ASWC based on physical and chemical properties and analyze the spatial distribution of ASWC in China. The pedo-transfer functions (PTFs), derived from 220 survey data of ASWC, and the empirical data of ASWC based on soil texture were applied to quantify the ASWC. GIS technology was used to develop a spatial file of ASWC in China and the spatial distribution of ASWC was also analyzed. The results showed the value of ASWC ranges from 15 × 10-2 cm3·cm-3 to 22 × 10-2 cm3·cm-3 for most soil types, and few soil types are lower than 15 × 10-2 cm3·cm-3 or higher than 22 × 10-2 cm3·cm-3. The ASWC is different according to the complex soil types and their distribution. It is higher in the east than that in the west, and the values reduce from south to north except the northeastern part of China. The "high" values of ASWC appear in southeast, northeastern mountain regions and Northeast China Plain. The relatively "high" values of ASWC appear in Sichuan basin, Huang-Huai-Hai plain and the east of Inner Mongolia. The relatively "low" values are distributed in the west and the Loess Plateau of China. The "very low" value regions are the northern Tibetan Plateau and the desertified areas in northern China. In some regions, the ASWC changes according to the complex topography and different types of soils. Though there remains precision limitation, the spatial data of ASWC derived from this study are improved on current data files of soil water retention properties for Chinese soils. This study presents basic data and analysis methods for estimation and evaluation of ASWC in China.

An Assessment of Climate Change and Available Water Resources in the Lowveld Region, Swaziland

Long-term climatic data （maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall and evaporation） for Big Bend in the Lowveld, a semi-arid region of Swaziland, were analysed for any changes or variations. Evaporation and rainfall data were analysed to assess water resources availability in the region. Analysis of the available data shows that there is no indication of decrease in rainfall with time, but the results show that there has been a steady increase in minimum temperatures over the last 25 years. The average effective water resources index, measured as the difference between mean annual rainfall and mean annual evaporation, for the region in the period from 1965 to 2001 was -1,500 mm. The large negative index implies low available water for the region, a situation that is likely to affect agricultural, hydropower and other water related development activities in the region. The negative effective water index implies deficits in the region＇s water resources which call for better management of the region＇s water resources. In the agriculture sector, this requires promoting technologies and practices that provide for water saving, improved water use performance and high water productivity. These include soil conservation tillage, wastewater reuse, runoff harvesting and soil fertility interventions through application of fertilizers, manures and mulches, and agronomic management. There is need for more analysis for the other regions in order to get a countrywide picture of the climate as well as water resources situations.

Photosynthetic and water-related physiological characteristics of Periploca sepium in response to changing soil water conditions in a shell sand habitat

This study was performed to observe the effects of water on photosynthesis and water-related physiology in dominant shrubs in shell sand habitats.Four-year-old Periploca sepium seedlings were used as model species.A gradient of 12 water levels was established by artificially supplying the shell sand with water up to saturation and then allowing natural evapotranspiration to occur.The photo synthetic,chlorophyll fluorescence and stem sap flow parameters of P.sepium were measured under a range of water conditions.The different soil water conditions were classified according to the responses of these parameters.(1)With the increase in the relative water content(RWC)of the shell sand,the parameters of leaf photosynthesis,chlorophyll fluorescence and water-related physiology in P.sepium showed significant critical responses.The net photo synthetic rate(Pn),transpiration rate(Tr),instantaneous water use efficiency(WUE),potential water use efficiency(WUEi),maximum photochemical efficiency(Fv/Fm),actual photochemical efficiency(ΦPSII)and daily accumulation of stem sap flow all increased first and then decreased with increasing RWC,but the corresponding water conditions associated with their maximum values were not the same.An RWC of 69.40%was determined to be the optimal water condition for photosynthesis and water-related physiological activity in P.sepium.At an RWC of 36.61%,the mechanism of photosynthetic inhibition in P.sepium changed from stomatal limitation to nonstomatal limitation;this was also the minimum water requirement for maintaining normal photo synthetic processes.An RWC of 50.27%resulted in the highest WUE in P.sepium,indicating that moderate drought stress increased WUE.(2)Based on the quantitative relationship between the photo synthetic parameters of P.sepium and the shell sand water gradient,the soil water availability was classified into 6 water grades.The RWC range for maintaining strong photosynthesis and high WUE in P.sepium was 63.22-69.98%.(3)Gas exchange in P.sepium was inhibited under drought and waterlogging stresses.Under these conditions,the photosynthetic electron transport chain was blocked,and the dissipation of light energy as heat increased,which ultimately led to a decline in photo synthetic productivity;moreover,transpiration and dissipation were aggravated,and water transmission and utilization processes in P.sepium were hindered.A significant negative feedback regulation mechanism in the photosynthetic and water-related physiological processes of P.sepium was observed;this mechanism allowed P.sepium growing in shell sand to be highly adaptable to water stress.

Severe drought strongly reduces water use and its recovery ability of mature Mongolian Scots pine(Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica Litv.) in a semi-arid sandy environment of northern China

Trees growing in a semi-arid sandy environment are often exposed to drought conditions due to seasonal variations in precipitation, low soil water retention and deep groundwater level.However, adaptability and plasticity of individuals to the changing drought conditions greatly vary among tree species.In this study, we estimated water use(Ts) of Mongolian Scots pine(MSP;Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica Litv.) based on sap flux density measurements over four successive years(2013–2016) that exhibited significant fluctuations in precipitation in a semi-arid sandy environment of northern China.The results showed that fluctuations in daily Ts synchronously varied with dry-wet cycles of soil moisture over the study period.The daily ratio of water use to reference evapotranspiration(Ts/ET0) on sunny days in each year showed a negative linear relationship with the severity of drought in the upper soil layer(0–1 m;P<0.01).The decrease in Ts induced by erratic drought during the growing season recovered due to precipitation.However, this recovery ability failed under prolonged and severe droughts.The Ts/ET0 ratio significantly declined with the progressive reduction in the groundwater level(gw) over the study period(P<0.01).We concluded that the upper soil layer contributed the most to the Ts of MSP during the growing season.The severity and duration of droughts in this layer greatly reduced Ts.Nevertheless, gw determined whether the Ts could completely recover after the alleviation of long-term soil drought.These results provide practical information for optimizing MSP management to stop ongoing degradation in the semi-arid sandy environments.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi improved plant growth and nutrient acquisition of desert ephemeral Plantago minuta under variable soil water conditions

Desert ephemeral plants play an important role in desert ecosystem.Soil water availability is considered as the major restrictive factor limiting the growth of ephemeral plants.Moreover,arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi（AM fungi） are widely reported to improve the growth of desert ephemerals.The present study aimed to test the hypothesis of that AM fungi could alleviate drought stress of desert ephemeral Plantago minuta,and AM fungal functions reduced with the improvement of soil water content.A pot experiment was carried out with three levels of soil water contents（4.5%,9.0%,and 15.8%（w/w））,and three AM inoculation treatments（Glomus mosseae,Glomus etunicatum and non-inoculation）.The results indicate that mycorrhizal colonization rate decreased with the increase of soil water availability.Inoculation improved plant growth and N,P and K acquisition in both shoots and roots regardless water treatments.When comparing the two fungi,plants inoculated with G.mosseae performed better than those inoculated with G.etunicatum in terms of plant growth and nutrient acquisition.These results showed that ameliorative soil water did not suppress arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal functions in improving growth and nutrient acquisition of desert ephemeral Plantago minuta.

Contribution of Agro-Hydrological Modeling in the Evaluation of Water Availability of an Ungauged Basin Reservoir in Côte d’Ivoire: Case of the Loka Reservoir in Bouaké

The city of Bouaké, the second biggest city of Côte d’Ivoire, experienced a water shortage in 2018 that lasted four months due to the drying up of the Loka reservoir, which supplies two-thirds of the city. The challenge of the Loka reservoir is that it is located in an ungauged basin where very few hydrological studies have been carried out, despite the recurrent problems of access to drinking water. In the purpose to better understand the phenomena that caused this temporary drying of the dam, the methodology implemented was based on agro-hydrological modeling with SWAT using a regionalization technique of a nearby watershed. The model performance was assessed using three statistical indices (the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the percentage of bias (PBIAS)) and the visual appreciation of hydrographs for monthly series. The statistical indices appear satisfactory with a NS and R2 ≥ 0.6 both for calibration and validation, and a PBIAS of -11.2 and -3.8 respectively for calibration and validation. The hydrological modeling of Loka basin has shown the impact of climate change already reported by some authors as well as anthropization. Thus, while the reservoir records a decrease in its water volume estimated at 384,604 m3 each year, the water demand undergoes an increase of 122,033 m3 per year.

Response of plant physiological parameters to soil water availability during prolonged drought is affected by soil texture

Soil water deficit is increasingly threatening the sustainable vegetation restoration and ecological construction on the Loess Plateau of China due to the climate warming and human activities.To determine the response thresholds of Amygdalus pedunculata(AP)and Salix psammophila(SP)to soil water availability under different textural soils,we measured the changes in net photosynthetic rate(Pn),stomatal conductance(Gs),intercellular CO2 concentration(Ci),leaf water potential(ψw),water use efficiency(WUE)and daily transpiration rate(Td)of the two plant species during soil water content(SWC)decreased from 100%field capacity(FC)to 20%FC in the sandy and loamy soils on the Loess Plateau in the growing season from June to August in 2018.Results showed that Pn,Gs,WUE and Td of AP and SP remained relatively constant at the beginning of soil water deficit but decreased rapidly as plant available soil water content(PASWC)fell below the threshold values in both the sandy and loamy soils.The PASWC thresholds corresponding to Pn,Gs and Ci of AP in the loamy soil(0.61,0.62 and 0.70,respectively)were lower than those in the sandy soil(0.70,0.63 and 0.75,respectively),whereas the PASWC thresholds corresponding to Pn,Gs and Ci of SP in the loamy soil(0.63,0.68 and 0.78,respectively)were higher than those in the sandy soil(0.58,0.62 and 0.66,respectively).In addition,the PASWC thresholds in relation to Td and WUE of AP(0.60 and 0.58,respectively)and SP(0.62 and 0.60,respectively)in the loamy soil were higher than the corresponding PASWC thresholds of AP(0.58 and 0.52,respectively)and SP(0.55 and 0.56,respectively)in the sandy soil.Furthermore,the PASWC thresholds for the instantaneous gas exchange parameters(e.g.,Pn and Gs)at the transient scale were higher than the thresholds for the parameters(e.g.,Td)at the daily scale.Our study demonstrates that different plant species and/or different physiological parameters exhibit different thresholds of PASWC and that the thresholds are affected by soil texture.The result can provide guidance for the rational allocation and sustainable management of reforestation species under different soil conditions in the loess regions.

Tree water potentials supporting an explanation for the occurrence of Vachellia erioloba in the Namib Desert (Namibia)

Background： Site-vegetation relations of Vachellia erioloba, Faidherbia albido, Euclea pseudebenus and Tamarix usneoides in two contrasting locations in the Namib Desert （Namibia） were evaluated with the goal to relate soil water availability to the occurrence of trees under hyper-arid conditions, Methods： Plant water potentials were measured using a pressure chamber in the field. Pre-dawn water potentials were assessed to reflect the soil water potential of the rhizosphere. Midday water potentials were measured to assess the strongest negative water potential applied by the sample trees. Results： Pre-dawn water potentials and midday water potentials indicated access to soil water in the rhizosphere and by this, provide an explanation for an occurrence of V. erioloba within the extreme environmental conditions of sand dunes in the Namib Desert. Diurnal ranges seem to reflect more and less suitable stands, in terms of soil water availability, within the sampling sites. While the impact of the ephemeral Kuiseb river on soil water availability was assessed through the four species＇ plant-internal water relations, comparable pre-dawn water potentials of V. erioioba at both sites indicate soil water availability also in the dunes of Namibrand. The extreme midday water potentials of the dune plants possibly show the upper limit of tolerance for V. eriolobo. Conclusions： The preliminary data provide an explanation of the occurrence and distribution of the investigated species in beds of ephemeral rivers and on dunes under the hyper-arid climatic conditions of the Namib Desert and qualify suitability within the assessed sites. Understanding the plant-physiological processes and assessing the plant-internal water potential provides a valuable tool to evaluate soil water availability within the rhizosphere and to describe an adaptation potential of investigated species. The comparability of pre-dawn water potentials at both sites indicates unexpected soil water availability within lower parts of the dunes of Namibrand. Further research needs are derived concerning the origin and distribution of such soil water. These species in these specific tree-environments are understudied and little published, thus the results support an improved understanding of the ecology in arid environments.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Water Availability in the Yellow River Basin

The changes in hydrological processes in the Yellow River basin were simulated by using the Community Land Model(CLM,version 3.5),driven by historical climate data observed from 1951 to 2008.A comparison of modeled soil moisture and runoff with limited observations in the basin suggests a general drying trend in simulated soil moisture,runoff,and precipitation-evaporation balance(P-E) in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the observation period.Furthermore,annual soil moisture,runoff,and P-E averaged over the entire basin have declined by 3.3%,82.2%,and 32.1%,respectively.Significant drying trends in soil moisture appear in the upper and middle reaches of the basin,whereas a significant trend in declining surface runoff and P-E occurred in the middle reaches and the southeastern part of the upper reaches.The overall decreasing water availability is characterized by large spatial and temporal variability.

Effect of climate change on drinking water supply in Santiago de Chile

Climate change is likely to increase the occurrence of floods and flashfloods that affect Santiago de Chile＇s drinking water supply system throughout the 21st century. A relationship between flashfloods in the Maipo River--Santiago＇s main raw water source, drainage area in the Maipo Alto Sub Basin and precipitation 48 hours previous to the event was found. Despite having legal guide- lines to guarantee continuity and stability in water supply, Chilean law does not specify the maximum admissible magnitude of an event. A 12% drop of average monthly flow at Maipo en E1 Manzano Station was estimated for the 2035-2065 period due to cli- mate change, meaning water suppliers would not be able to meet 90% monthly water supply security, required by Chilean law. Water suppliers would need to increase their current allotted quota of the Maipo River, from 24.5% to a percentage between 26% and 30% to comply. If the 0 ~C isotherm keeps increasing its elevation through the 21st century, more intense floods could occur because of additional drainage area granted by the elevation of the snow line, even if precipitation does not suffer a significant change. In order to withstand a five day turbidity event, 2 m3/s of groundwater, or any non river source, should be temporarily in- coroorated to the emergency dfinkin~ water production.

Assessing Water Availability and Unmet Water Demand Using the WEAP Model in the Semi-Arid Bweengwa, Kasaka and Magoye Sub-Catchments of Southern Zambia

Located in the semi-arid zone of Zambia, the Mutama-Bweengwa, Kasaka and Magoye sub-catchments have witnessed a high demand for water due to increase in population and socio-economic activities putting more pressure on water resources. This study assesses the hydrological components and ascertains the available water resources and unmet demand in the sub-catchments using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) Model and hydrometeorological data collected between 1951 and 2018. The model was calibrated and validated on 1971-1981 and 2008-2018 data respectively. The results reveal that the sub-catchments have transitioned from positive to negative water balance with -164.295 Mm3/year for Mutama-Bweengwa, -19.021 Mm3/year for Kasaka and -86.368 Mm3/year for Magoye. Evaporation was 1815.259 Mm3/year for Mutama-Bweengwa, 1162.655 Mm3/year for Kasaka and 1505.664 Mm3/year for Magoye. The demand for water has been increasing over time for various purposes such as irrigation, domestic, urban/rural water supply and livestock. The overall water storage in the sub-catchments showed a negative water balance for the year 2018. The observed and simulated peak streamflow were 8.16 m3/s and 7.7 m3/s occurring during the month of January and February respectively. The WEAP model performance achieved R2 of 0.98 during calibration and 0.95 for validation, and an NSE of 0.83 for calibration and 0.85 during validation. The values of objective functions show that the hydrology of the Mutama-Bweengwa, Kasaka and Magoye sub-catchments as predicted by the WEAP model provides satisfactory confidence for prediction of future streamflow and hence projection based on future scenarios.

Evaluation of Surface Water Availability for Inland Valleys Rice Production： The Case of Mankran Watershed in a Deciduous Forest Zone of Ghana

In Ghana, inland valleys have been found to be suitable for rice cultivation and could potentially increase lowland paddy rice production, This study estimated the temporal variations of surface water resources and their spatial distribution in the Mankran watershed of Ghana through the collection of recorded hydrological data in the bench mark watershedfrom2008 to 2010. Since most inland valley rice cultivation highly depends on rainfall, the watershed precipitation data over a decadal period showed sufficient wet years with a potential to sustain a high cultivation of paddy rice. Peak wetness occurred in June and October over a bi-modal precipitation pattern. Rating curve data for the Mankran-kesse river-upstream depicted low discharge values despite having a higher stream order. Thus stream order alone was not sufficient to estimate water resources potential. It was presumed that the geomorphology and lithology of the highly porous river bed and the presence of high sub-surface water resources stored in this zone may be implicated for this observation. Provision of water storage options for zones like Kesse-upstream seems a feasible option in order to cater for supplementary irrigation while indirectly tapping on subsurface water resources stored in the porous aquifers through basin interflows. Base flow data also showed that the discharge from upstream locations to the downstream exit of the watershed was high through direct surface river discharge and subsurface interflow. The temporal patterns of the hydrology indicate that annual paddy rice cultivation is ideal between May and October.

Modeling Surface Water Availability for Irrigation Development in Mbarali River Sub-Catchment Mbeya, Tanzania

Although Tanzania has a large land suitable for irrigation development, only 4.2% of the arable land which is potential for irrigation has been developed. Mbarali District is characterized by commercial and small-scale irrigation activities for paddy production. Currently, surface water availability for irrigation in Mbarali District is dwindling due to high water demands. Inadequate studies that estimate water availability for irrigation is one of the underlying factors to the lack of irrigation development in many parts of Tanzania including in Mbarali District. This study, therefore, aimed to model surface water availability for irrigation development in Mbarali River sub-catchment Mbeya, Tanzania. The Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) model and field observations were used to accomplish the study. The model estimates that Mbarali River sub-catchment receives about 631 mm of total mean precipitation annually. About 53% of received precipitation is lost through evapotranspiration, 12% recharged to deep aquifer and the remaining 35% discharged to the stream flow through surface runoff, lateral flow and return flow from unconfined aquifer. Discharge to the steam flow contributes to the total annual means of river discharge ranging from 0 - 10 cubic meters per second at upper catchment to 120 - 140 cubic meters per second at lower catchment. The study recommends that the lower reach of the Mbarali River sub-catchment is potential for irrigation than the upper reach as it has potential river flow that can support irrigation activities. The study also notes the urgent need for water reallocation plan to meet competing water needs in the lower reach of Mbarali River sub-catchment. Moreover, the study addresses the potentiality of irrigation in upper catchment under sustainable water management practices including excavation of small ponds to capture and store surface runoff for dry season use or to supplement irrigation as the rainfall declines.

Economic outlook of rice crops in Pakistan:a time series analysis (1970-2015)

Background:The basic objective of this study was to examine the relationship between the rice output,its production area,water availability,and agricultural gross domestic product(GDP)of Pakistan.Annual time series data for 1970–2015 were collected from the National Food Security and Research,Economic Survey of Pakistan,and Pakistan Bureau of Statistics(various publications).Methods:Rice crop data were analyzed using the ordinary least square method and the augmented Dickey–Fuller test.Were interpreted using the Johansen cointegration test.Results:Our study revealed the existence of a long-standing relationship between rice output,its production area,and water availability with the agricultural GDP of Pakistan.Regression results indicate that rice output and cultivated area have a significant and positive relationship with agricultural GDP,while water availability has a negative relationship.Conclusions:The study suggests that the government of Pakistan should design new policies and funding schemes for developing and improving water availability.

Desertification Reversion in Relation to Land Use Change and Climate in Naiman County, Inner-Mongolia, China

Analyses of desertified land and land use change in Naiman County of Inner-Mongolia showed that there was a fluctuated in-crease of rain-fed cropland in the period from 1951 to 1960, then decreased until the middle of the 1990＇s, then increased again, while irrigated cropland consistently increased. The woodland and build-up land consistently increased while grassland area de-creased. The area of water body increased from 1975 to 1995 and then decreased while river beach decreased. Wetland change fluctuated with a maximum of 303.53km2 in 1995 and a minimum of 62.08 km2 in 2002. Invasion of cropland into river beach does not only change land coverage on the beach, but also the hydrological process of the river systems and deeply influence wa-ter availability. The correlation between cropland and underground water table is negative and significant. Increase of irrigated cropland is the primary cause of water availability reduction. Water table reduction is negatively correlated to cropland. The total desertified land has decreased since 1975. A rapid increase occurred before 1959, but it is difficult to assess the change of deserti-fication due to lack of data from 1959 to 1975. Changes of different types of desertified lands were different. There is no signifi-cant correlation between land use and different types of desertified land, but there is a significant negative correlation between woodland and total desertified land. The correlation between grassland and total desertified land is positive and significant. There is a significant correlation between different land cover and key factors such as water body and annual precipitation, river beach and runoff, area of shifting dune and annual precipitation, and cropland and underground water table. Desertification reversion in Naiman County is fragile and will be even much more fragile due to population growth, rapid land use and climate change. This will lead to continued invasion of irrigated cropland into more fragile ecosystems and reduction of water availability.

Sensitivity Analysis of the ALMANAC Model's Input Variables

Crop models often require extensive input data sets to realistically simulate crop growth. Development of such input data sets can be difficult for some model users. The objective of this study was to evaluate the importance of variables in input data sets for crop modeling. Based on published hybrid performance trials in eight Texas counties, we developed standard data sets of 10-year simulations of maize and sorghum for these eight counties with the ALMANAC (Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria) model. The simulation results were close to the measured county yields with relative error only 2.6% for maize, and - 0.6% for sorghum. We then analyzed the sensitivity of grain yield to solar radiation, rainfall, soil depth, soil plant available water, and runoff curve number, comparing simulated yields to those with the original, standard data sets. Runoff curve number changes had the greatest impact on simulated maize and sorghum yields for all the counties. The next most critical input was rainfall, and then solar radiation for both maize and sorghum, especially for the dryland condition. For irrigated sorghum, solar radiation was the second most critical input instead of rainfall. The degree of sensitivity of yield to all variables for maize was larger than for sorghum except for solar radiation. Many models use a USDA curve number approach to represent soil water redistribution, so it will be important to have accurate curve numbers, rainfall, and soil depth to realistically simulate yields.

Water Yield of Xitiaoxi River Basin Based on InVEST Modeling

Water yield calculation and mapping are of great importance to water resource planning and management and hydropower station construction. A water yield model based on InVEST was employed to estimate water runoff in the Xitiaoxi River basin. The data included land use and land cover, average annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, soil depth, and plant available water content. In order to test model accuracy the natural runoff of Xitiaoxi River was estimated based on linear regression relation of rainfall-runoff in a ‘reference period’. After repeated validation, when the Z value was 6.5 the water yield was 8.30 E＋8 m3 and this was a smaller difference with natural runoff. From the distribution of water yield, south and southwestern areas of the watershed had higher water yield volumes per hectare.

Effects of Grazing Intensity on Soil Water Regime and Flux in Inner Mongolia Grassland,China

In the past few decades, the increase in grazing intensity has led to soil degradation and desertification in Inner Mongolia grassland, China, due to population growth and shift in the socio-economic system. Two sites with different grazing intensities, continuous grazing site （CG） with 1.2 sheep ha-1 year-1 and heavy grazing site （HG） with 2.0 sheep ha-1 year-1, were investigated at the Inner Mongolia Grassland Ecosystem Research Station （43° 37′ 50″ N, 116° 42′ 18″ E） situated in the northern China to i） characterize the temporal distribution of soil water content along soil profile; and ii） quantify the water fluxes as affected by grazing intensity. Soil water content was monitored by time domain refiectometry （TDR） probes. Soil water retention curves were determined by pressure membrane extractor, furthermore processed by RETC （RETention Curve） software. Soil matric potential, plant available water and water flux were calculated using these data. Both sites showed an identical seasonal soil water dynamics within four defined hydraulic periods： i） wetting transition coincided with a dramatic water increase due to snow and frozen soil thawing from March to April; 2） wet summer, rainfall in accordance with plant growth from May to September; 3） drying transition, a decrease of soil water from October to November due to rainfall limit; and 4） dry winter, freezing from December to next February. Heavy grazing largely reduced soil water content by 43%-48% and plant available water by 46%-61% as compared to the CG site. During growing season net water flux was nearly similar between HG （242 mm） and CG （223 mm） sites between 5 and 20 cm depths. However, between 20 and 40 cm depths, the upward flux was more pronounced at HG site than at CG site, indicating that water was depleted by root uptake at HG site but stored at CG site. In semi-arid grassland ecosystem, grazing intensity can affect soil water regime and flux, particularly in the growing season.