Research on the relationship between geophysical structural features and earthquakes in Mid-Yunnan and the surrounding area

In this study, we analyzed the gravity and, magnetic characteristics, and the occurrence of a fault zone and discussed the relationships between the two locations. The results reveal that the subsurface structures strikes are different compared with those in the research region. In other words, the geophysical advantageous directions from the gravity and magnetic anomalies are not the same as those caused by the surface structures. The local horizontal gradient results from the gravity and magnetic anomalies show that the majority of earthquakes occur along an intense fault zone, which is a zone of abrupt gravity and negative magnetic change, where the shapes match very well. From the distribution of earthquakes in this area, we find that it has experienced more than 11 earthquake events with magnitude larger than Ms7.0. In addition, water development sites such as Jinshajiang, Lancangjiang, and the Red River and Pearl River watersheds have been hit ten times by earthquakes of this magnitude. It is observed that strong earthquakes occur frequently in the Holocene active fault zone.

Evaluation of alternative surface runoff accounting procedures using SWAT model

For surface runoff estimation in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model,the curve number(CN)procedure is commonly adopted to calculate surface runoff by dynamically updating CN values based on antecedent soil moisture condition(SCSI)in field.From SWAT2005 and onward,an alternative approach has become available to apply the CN method by relating the runoff potential to daily evapotranspiration(SCSII).While improved runoff prediction with SCSII has been reported in several case studies,few investigations have been made on its influence to water quality output or on the model uncertainty associated with the SCSII method.The objectives of the research were:(1)to quantify the improvements in hydrologic and water quality predictions obtained through different surface runoff estimation techniques;and(2)to examine how model uncertainty is affected by combining different surface runoff estimation techniques within SWAT using Bayesian model averaging(BMA).Applications of BMA provide an alternative approach to investigate the nature of structural uncertainty associated with both CN methods.Results showed that SCSII and BMA associated approaches exhibit improved performance in both discharge and total NO3 predictions compared to SCSI.In addition,the application of BMA has a positive effect on finding well performed solutions in the multi-dimensional parameter space,but the predictive uncertainty is not evidently reduced or enhanced.Therefore,we recommend additional future SWAT calibration/validation research with an emphasis on the impact of SCSII on the prediction of other pollutants.