Research on Early Warning of Banking Crises from the Perspective of Credit Structures

The relationship between credit expansion and banking crises is complex and cannot be fully explained by total credit alone.A systematic analysis of the relationship between the amount and structure of total credit and banking crises is important for an objective prediction of the influence of potential financial risks.This paper,drawing on data from 15 selected countries,delves into the power of credit indicators in the early warning of banking crises from the perspectives of industrial structure,sector structure,and term structure of credit.Various machine learning methods were used,including Logistic Regression,Random Forest,Decision Tree,Support Vector Machine(SVM),Bagging,and Boosting models.The empirical findings indicate that credit expansion plays a crucial role in triggering banking crises.However,total credit is better suited for the early warning of short-term banking crises,whereas credit structure is more useful for the early warning of long-term banking crises.Moreover,in an early warning system,identifying key early warning indicators is more meaningful than merely increasing the number of indicators.Machine learning can somewhat enhance the early warning power,but it may not always be robust.Therefore,more attention should be paid to potential systemic banking crises resulting from an imbalance in credit structure while regulating the total credit threshold.

绿色信贷政策、ESG表现与高污染企业资本结构调整

绿色信贷政策作为结构性去杠杆的重要举措,对于高污染企业资本结构升级大有裨益。与此同时,ESG概念的提出明确了企业发展需着重考量环境(E)、社会(S)和公司治理(G)三方面的表现,即企业ESG表现也将作用于高污染企业资本结构调整。因此,论文以2011—2020年中国A股上市的高污染企业为研究样本,基于ESG表现视角,探究绿色信贷政策对高污染企业资本结构调整的作用效果。研究表明:1)绿色信贷政策显著促进高污染企业资本结构调整,区分企业负债水平后发现,相比于低负债企业,绿色信贷政策显著加快高负债污染企业的资本结构调整速度;2)绿色信贷政策会提升高污染企业的ESG表现,企业ESG表现会削弱绿色信贷政策对高污染企业资本结构调整的促进效果;3)在深入探讨企业融资约束和商业信用程度的异质性是否会影响绿色信贷政策的实施效果时,发现相较于面临弱融资约束和拥有高商业信用的企业,绿色信贷政策显著促进面临强融资约束和低商业信用的高污染企业调整资本结构。因此,探讨绿色信贷政策与高污染企业资本结构调整的关系对优化信贷资源配置、推动高污染企业绿色转型意义重大。

Global Financial Crisis and Accounting Rules： The Implications of the New Exposure Draft （ED） Financial Instruments： Expected Credit Losses on the Evaluation of Banking Company Loans

During the financial crisis, the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans and other financial instruments was identified as a weakness in existing incurred loss model of impairment stated by International Accounting Standards （IAS） 39, because it is believed that this delay might generate pro-cyclical effects. In response to the recommendations of G20, Financial Crisis Advisory Group （FCAG）, and other international bodies, the International Accounting Standards Board （IASB） has undertaken, since 2009, as a part of the project to replace IAS 39, a project （partially shared with Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB）） aimed at introducing an expected loss model of impairment. Within the scope of this subset project, the IASB has previously issued two exposure documents proposing models to account for expected credit losses： an exposure draft （ED） Financial Instrument： Amortized Cost and Impairment, published in November 2009, and a supplementary document （SD） Financial Instrument： Impairment, published jointly with the FASB in January 2011. However, neither of the two proposals received strong support from interested parties. Recently, the IASB, after the FASB＇s decision to withdraw from the joint project and to develop a separate expected credit loss model based on a single measurement approach consisting in the sole recognition of lifetime expected credit losses, published a third proposal--Ahe so-called expected credit losses model （ED/2013/3 Financial Instruments： Expected Credit Losses）.

Does country risk impact the banking sectors’non‑performing loans?Evidence from BRICS emerging economies

This study aims to fill the gap in the literature by specifically investigating the impact of country risk on the credit risk of the banking sectors operating in Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa(BRICS),emerging countries.More specifically,we explore whether the country-specific risks,namely financial,economic,and political risks significantly impact the BRICS banking sectors’non-performing loans and also probe which risk has the most outstanding effect on credit risk.To do so,we perform panel data analysis using the quantile estimation approach covering the period 2004–2020.The empirical results reveal that the country risk significantly leads to increasing the banking sector’s credit risk and this effect is prominent in the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans(Q.25=−0.105,Q.50=−0.131,Q.75=−0.153,Q.95=−0.175).Furthermore,the results underscore that an emerging country’s political,economic,and financial instabilities are strongly associated with increasing the banking sector’s credit risk and a rise in political risk in particular has the most positive prominent impact on the banking sector of countries with a higher degree of non-performing loans(Q.25=−0.122,Q.50=−0.141,Q.75=−0.163,Q.95=−0.172).Moreover,the results suggest that,in addition to the banking sectorspecific determinants,credit risk is significantly impacted by the financial market development,lending interest rate,and global risk.The results are robust and have significant policy suggestions for many policymakers,bank executives,researchers,and analysts.

Application of the Credit Metrics in the Credit Risk Management of Commercial Banks

Credit risk is one of the main risks the commercial banks faces all over the world,especially in the risk structure of the banks of China.In order to control credit risk more scientifically,we shall connect the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis.Put forward by J.P.Morgan Credit Metrics model is the application of the VaR in the field of credit risk,showing great advantage in quantitative bonds and credit risk of loan.This paper studies the Credit Metrics model and analyzes the hypothesis and framework of this model,attempting to explore the application of the model in China in order to promote the realization of the risk quantification of the commercial banks of China.

政企关系与小微企业融资可得性研究--基于中国小微企业调查(CMES)的经验证据

基于小微企业融资约束背景,以中国家庭金融调查与研究中心发布的2015年中国小微企业的调研数据为样本数据,实证检验政企关系对小微企业融资可得性的影响。研究发现:良好的政企关系能够显著提高小微企业银行信贷融资可获得性,但不能显著提高小微企业民间信贷融资可获得性。因此,小微企业融资约束影响因素的确认,可为小微企业与政府机构建立新型政商关系提供事实依据。

Issues concerning Development of Consumer Credit Business in China's Agricultural Bank

This article introduces the status quo of consumer credit business in China's agricultural bank,indicating that the scale of China's consumer credit business is expanded year by year;the growth of consumer credit business slows down;housing loans grow rapidly.We analyze issues concerning development of consumer credit business in agricultural bank as follows:single variety of consumer credit business makes the operating scope narrow;the formality of consumer credit business is trivial,abating consumers' will to borrow;consumers' consumer attitudes are stale,yet to be further changed;the loan interest of consumer credit is beyond the majority of consumers' actual ability to pay;the existing regulations and systems are not sound;the risk prevention mechanism is not perfect.Based on this,we put forward the following countermeasures and proposals for further improving consumer credit business in China's agricultural bank:first,formulate reasonable marketing strategy of consumer credit business;second,establish and improve the internal management mechanism;third,establish and improve risk assessment system;fourth,improve consumer credit legal system.

Impact of learning through credit and value creation on the efficiency of Japanese commercial banks

This study investigates the learning curve of commercial banks regarding the efficiency of credit and value creation.However,current empirical methods for accessing the learning curve in organizations are not suitable for use in financial institutions.Considering bank-specific characteristics,we introduce a dynamic learning curve using a cost function adjusted to capture learning-by-doing in banks.Using the model,we test several hypotheses on the impact of bank intermediary experience(learning)on the efficiency of credit and value creation in Japanese commercial banks.The findings show that bank intermediary learning significantly improves the cost efficiency gain in the gross value created,total credit created,and investment.However,bank intermediary experience has no significant effect on the efficiency of the economic value created for all the banks analyzed.These findings have practical implications for evaluating cost dynamics in bank credit and value creation,risk management,lending to the real sector,and shareholder value creation.

Airtime Credit Banking: From Two Applications to One Application

This paper proposes how airtime credit could be used for banking purposes. The aim is to provide a means of converting airtime credit of any network service provider to a credit alert for a particular bank account user. This paper shows a simple implementation of the proposed system. The advantage of the proposed system is that it allows customers the right to convert their purchased airtime credit to a credit alert at anytime when they no longer wish to use the airtime credit again. Furthermore, it explains the limitations of the proposed system considering regulations in different countries of deployment. This approach could be extended to cover other vouchers for banking applications as well.

Enhancing Access to Bank Credit for Small-Scale Farmers in Kisumu and Kiambu Districts, Kenya Through Public-Private Partnership Initiative

In Kenya, small-scale fanning has immense potential in poverty reduction. The growth of farming activities requires sustainable access to affordable credit to boost and sustain production. This study is initiated to investigate factors influencing access to bank credit by small-scale farmers in Kisumu and Kiambu Districts, Kenya. It is necessitated by lack of a comprehensive study documenting the effectiveness of the partnership initiative in improving access to credit for small-scale farmers. The study seeks to address the following concerns： what factors influence access to bank credit by small-scale farmers under the initiative？ Are small-scale farmers in various parts of the country accessing bank credit equally？ Through which sources do farmers get to know about credit products provided through the initiative？ Primary data was collected from 144 farmers in Kiambu and 127 farmers in Kisumu, sampled using systematic random procedure. The cross-sectional survey design was applied to guide the research process. Quantitative analysis generated cross-tabulations with chi-square and binary logistic regression. The study found that out of 144 credit applicants in Kiambu about 56.3% were successful, while in Kisumu only 37.8% were successful. Access to bank credit was significantly associated with farmers＇ gender, education level, income level, farm size, and farming experience. Besides, women were 1.3 times less likely to access bank credit than men. In terms of regional variation, a Kiambu farmer was 2.7 times more likely to obtain bank credit than a Kisumu farmer. The initiative is an innovative approach for enhancing access to bank credit; however, its potential has not been fully exploited. The study recommends the need： to inform farmers about credit products to clear misconceptions and myths associated with bank credit; develop innovative financing packages for small-scale farmers that are also gender-sensitive; and to initiate a training program targeting farmers with appropriate information.

Bank Criminal Act： Case of Fraud Using Letter of Credit-Bank as a Victim

Letter of Credit （L/C） is a payment method offered by bank for settling the foreign trade. The existence of L/C is a means capable of providing guarantee for the interests of the sellers and buyers. In the event of default by either party, either the seller or the buyer, the bank as the L/C issuer will provide payment guarantee for the seller or the waiver of payment for the buyer. The bank’s risk in issuing the L/C is regarding with the weakness of L/C. In Article 5 of UCP 600, it is emphasized that in transactions using L/C, banks deal only with documents, not dealing with goods, or other implementation. In Article 14a of UCP 600 it is affirmed that the L/C payments are based on the suitability between the L/C requirements and the submitted documents viewed under “on their face”. The bank authority as the guarantor which only deals with the documents in making payments causing the L/C instrument is often used in fraud against the bank. Many banking fraud cases that occur in Indonesia take advantage of L/C weakness. This paper will discuss the occurrence of criminal acts in the banking by exploiting weaknesses in the L/C that makes the bank as a victim. In addition, this paper aims to explain the effort to overcome the criminal acts that occurred at the issuing bank as a victim by using L/C. The discussion in this paper emphasized the application of laws and regulations applicable to indict the perpetrators of criminal acts in the banking sector by exploiting weaknesses of L/C. Aspects of the discussion of a criminal offense are based on the Act No. 10 of 1998 concerning banking, and under the provisions of the Criminal Code.

Certification and Conversion Mode of Learning Achievement Based on Credit Bank under the Background of Higher Vocational Enrollment Expansion

Credit bank system is a very important management mode in current higher vocational education,and it is also an important means for the Ministry of Education to promote China's modern education reform.This paper combines the specific background of higher vocational enrollment expansion,expounds the practical significance of the credit bank system in the training of the expanded enrollment talents,and explores the methods and rules of the authentication and transformation of the learning achievement of the expanded enrollment students under the system.In order to achieve convergence of different types of learning results,smooth talent growth channel,a useful exploration is carried out.

The Relationship Between Credit Risk Management and Profitability Among the Commercial Banks in Kenya

Banks operate in an environment of considerable risks and uncertainty. Credit risk has always been a vicinity of concern not only to bankers but to all in the business world because the risks of a trading partner not fulfilling his obligations in full on due date can seriously jeopardize the affairs of the other partner. Credit risk management in banks has become more important not only because of the series of financial crisis that the world has experienced in the recent past, but also the introduction of Basel II Accord. The objective of the study was to establish the relationship between credit risk management and profitability in commercial banks in Kenya, Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used in order to fulfill the main purpose of the study. A regression model was used to do the empirical analysis. The results obtained from the regression model show that there is an effect of credit risk management on profitability at a reasonable level. The findings and analysis reveal that credit risk management has an effect on profitability in all the commercial banks analyzed.

Role of National Culture of Foreign Investors in the Area of Credit Risk Management： Case Study of Polish Banking Industry

Among the researches dedicated to the risk management in banks, there are not many analyses made from cultural point of view. The author attempts to assess the attitude to credit risk in the Polish banking system, in terms of cultural factors influencing the approach to this issue. The purpose of this paper is focused on testing the hypothesis that foreign owners of banks （headquarters） transfer elements of their national culture to its subsidiaries operating in Poland. It is done by analysis of statistical correlations between the indexes defining the main characteristics of national cultures and the actual financial performance indicators reached by selected banks in the period from 2004 to 2010 in Poland. The study objectives are the following： Firstly, whether the owners from different countries transfer their cultural attitude to risk to subordinate daughter-banks in Poland. The second question concerns the relevance of uncertainty avoidance and individualism/collectivism concepts of two, to some extent, competing approaches. The findings say that the regularity of the transfer of the cultural attitude to credit risk from the parent banks to their subsidiaries is confirmed by interviews with senior managers, but it is only partially reflected in the statistics. Main outcomes of the study propose that the cultural factors of bank risk management policy shouldn＇t be ignored and developed in other cross-cultural research areas, e.g. ethnocentrism. Generally, these studies are present lessons for companies, investors, and policymakers, but the usefulness of these implications varies.

全球终身教育资历框架建设的比较研究:基于UNESCO 79国/地区的典型案例

构建各级各类教育衔接与沟通的终身教育资历框架,是数字时代服务全民终身学习和建设学习型社会的顶层设计和制度体系,也是全球终身教育发展和改革的走向。选取联合国教科文组织等机构在2023年12月发布的第五版《全球国家和区域资历框架目录》中的79个国家/地区资历框架典型案例为样本,对全球资历框架发展阶段、建设目标、制度建设、全纳贯通、治理模式、等级划分、等级维度,以及推广途径等进行比较分析。研究结果对我国资历框架建设有三方面启示:一是构建以法律为依据、全纳为特征的终身教育资历框架制度体系;二是构建以质量保障为核心、行业能力标准为要求的学习成果认证制度;三是构建以人民为中心、技术为支撑的学分积累、互认和转换的学分银行运作系统。

The Empirical Estimation of the Influence of Credit Risk Determinants in Baltic States＇ Banking Sector

There have been investigated empirically the influence of macroeconomic and real estate market variables on the level of non-performing loans in the Baltic States. A secondary goal was to analyze the effect of constant loan portfolio growth on the level of non-performing loans in mentioned countries and to define the type of influence of the variables （i.e., long-term or short-term）. The research indicates that all variables except the growth rate of the real estate market （RRE） have long-term influence on the level of non-performing loans. RRE has short-term influence and variables influence is associated with the development of another variables. The influence of RRE played an important role, but it was not as crucial as it has been previously assumed. If a respective credit risk management is applied, the influence of RRE is to be eliminated. The research results indicate that the most significant reason for the growth of non-performing loans for the Baltic States presented by rapid growth of aggregated loan portfolio and unemployment rate. The increasing influence of rapid loan portfolio growth proves the assumption that banks＇ credit risk management policies underestimated the changes in the macroeconomic variables during the analyzed period. The changes in the real GDP had initial influence on the economic situation deterioration for Baltic States.

Structural Monetary Policy, Bank Credit and Bank Liquidity—An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis,the People’s Bank of China,based on traditional monetary policy tools,launched a series of structural monetary policy tools such as standing lending facility(SLF),medium-term lending facility(MLF),and pledged supplementary lending(PSL)and targeted at liquidity via the commercial banking system.In order to test the credit transmission effect of structured monetary policy,this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between structured monetary policy,bank liquidity and bank credit based on the VAR model.The research shows that the implementation of structured monetary policy reduces the liquidity of commercial banks in the short term and increases in loans to small or micro enterprises and agriculture-related loans,these policies have produced significant short-term effects on credit transmission in steady of long-term effects.Thus,a series of supporting measures are needed to fully exert the effects of structural monetary policy.

Credit Risk Transfer and the Performance of Commercial Banks --Based on the Panel Data

Based on the panel data, we analyze the US commercial banks＇ CRT. According to the study, we find that the introduction of CRT will increase the level of banks＇ liquid risk. The performance of bank mainly is that its supervision and review of risk will drop, based on the impact of asymmetric information, commercial Banks transfer the bad loans to investors. Through the analysis we can see that after the transfer of credit risk in commercial bank did not increase income and reduce risk. Because commercial Banks can extend more bad loans to expand its lending scale, and bad loans will increase the bank overall risk.

Discussion on Consumer Credit Business of Traditional Commercial Banks under Internet Finance

With the advent and development of the information age,the Internet has become the current advancement in all walks of life.The popularization of e-commerce also gives birth to Internet finance.The emergence of consumer credit businesses such as“Yu‘ebao”and“Huabei”has put great pressure on the consumer credit business of traditional commercial Banks.Under the background of Internet finance,in order to promote the development of commercial Banks’consumer credit business,it is necessary to strengthen the innovation of commercial Banks’consumer credit business and meet the development demand of the current information age.

Study on Credit Card Risk of Commercial Banks in Prefectural-Level Banks Based on Logistic Model

Substantial income has been brought to the bank since credit card business entering the Chinese market,giving rise to a growing number of credit card issuers and more frequent transactions,which also improves convenience of cardholders.However,the booming market of credit card caused a series of credit risk.Credit risk in commercial banks and medium-sized banks in prefectural-level city is an operational risk that cannot be ignored,if not properly handled;it will exacerbate risk control pressure.Credit card risk mainly concerns default risk,and factors causing breach varied.Credit card risk can exist in the whole process,including the customers?application for credit card,card insuring,and transaction settlement.Finding an effective way to identify a variety of credit card risk,and developing a complete and efficient monitoring system to reduce the risk of credit loss is essential for large commercial banks.In terms of smaller-scale banks in prefecture-level city,a credit scoring system to evaluate the customer's credit ability is particularly important.Dataset in this paper mainly comes from a prefecture-level city bank,and the information is anonymous and authentic.This paper starts with the more than 700 customer data of a prefecture-level city bank and comprehensively considers the status quo of credit card development in China's commercial banks and successful domestic and foreign credit risk management experiences,followed with the causes and characteristics of credit card risks,solutions,and proposals,systematically expounding credit card business risk management.This article adopts the Logistic model and the credit scoring model.Through the screening and analysis of dozens of customer's characteristic variables and the use of various commands of statistical software,a prediction model of customer default probability will be constructed.At the same time,a scoring model was introduced to set the threshold for issuing cards in a quantifiable manner to help banks predict the possibility of customer default before issuing credit cards.Finally,through the combination of multiple sets of model comparison and selection,a high level of issuance volume can be ensured,and the risk rate is minimized,which can provide a reference for banks in the practical application of credit risk control.