Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.

Economic reform, open-door policy and changes in spatial development patterns in China

The study profiles and explains the significant changes that have taken place in China's spatial development patterns since the inception of its economic reform and opening two decades ago. Principal component analysis is used to delineate spatial patterns. The analyses show that prior to the reform China's spatial development pattern was characterized by the dominance of the three municipalities and the Northeast, as well as by both the coast-interior and the north-south disparities. Northern provinces were generally more industrialized and economically powerful than the southern ones. After two decades of reform, regional development has become multi-centered with South China, the Yangtze Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin area being the three most important regions of the country. The coastal provinces as a whole rose to prominence on China's economic map while the Northeast has diminished its clout. The coast-interior gap not only remains but may have widened. The north-south disparity also still exists but there has been a role reversal with the south now in the lead position. Virtually all inland provinces now find themselves at or near the low end of the development spectrum. We argue that the major reason for the recent shifts in Chinese space economy is the spatially differentiated economic growth resulted from the reform and open door policy and from the new, uneven development strategy adopted by the Chinese government. The paper discusses four specific factors that have reshaped China's spatial development patterns.

Forecasting regional economic growth using support vector machine model

Support vector machine(SVM)is a new technology in data mining.It is a new tool to solve machine learning problems with the help of optimization.Support vector machines belong to a new machine learning that extends from statistical learning theory.Its structure is relatively simple,with good generalization ability and global optimality.Support vector machine has provided a unified framework for solving finite sample learning problems,and there are many solutions proposed.It can deal with those more complex problems and introduce the characteristics of the support vector machine model.Aiming at the application of the model in economic forecasting,a method to improve the prediction accuracy of the model is proposed.The theoretical analysis and practical application verification are performed,which shows that this method can obtain more accurate prediction results.

The Real Source of China's Economic Growth

In this paper,the authors have made the following findings after the fitting of China's economic growth rate series using an improved STR model:since 1949,great changes have taken place in China's economic growth pattern but factor input remains to be the major source of China's economic growth,as reflected by the extensive pattern of economic growth;with the exception of capital,the marginal output of all other production factors has been on the increase,which suggests that the efficiency of China's factor allocation has been continuously improved;the marginal output of capital has been on the decline,which explains that the dependency on investment for economic growth has led to excessive investment;reform and opening up and reform of marketization have substantially increased the sustainability of China's economic growth.In addition,the authors have investigated the internal momentum of China's growth transformation and developed relevant policy recommendations.

Human Resource Management Theory in the Context of Economic Development Transformation from the Perspective of the Social Productive Forces

This paper explores the development of the human resource management theory from the perspective of social productive forces,deeply analyzing the development of the current social productive forces and the characteristics of the socio-economic development.It can be concluded that the development of the human resource management theory is closely related to the socio-economic development pattern.The twenty first century is a knowledge-driven era,and"eco-friendly"and"low-carbon"are the basic characteristics of the socio-economic development of the era of the knowledge-driven economy,which has great influence on the subject,aim and content of human resource management.Green human resource management conforms to the trend of the transformation of the socio-economic development.Based on the management of"human",it creates an eco-friendly,low-carbon and sustainable environment for enterprises,which promotes the transformation from extensive growth to intensive growth of the macro management of enterprises.

Black or Green?Economic Growth Patterns in China under Low Carbon Economy Targets

Achieving dual goals of economic growth and carbon emission reduction is a major issue in China. In this paper we deifne three economic growth patterns （green growth, brown growth and black growth） according to the relationship between economic scale and carbon emissions, and then trace the historical trajectory of economic growth over the last 40 years. Granger causality is used to test China’s economic growth and carbon emission linkage. We argue that green growth means that the rate of carbon emission reduction is faster than the increase in GDP. When carbon intensity reduction is slower than GDP growth, brown growth occurs. Black growth occurs when both carbon intensity and economic scale increase. For China, we denote the four periods of black growth （1971–1977）, brown growth （1978–2001）, black growth （2002–2004）, and brown growth （2004–2010）. Granger causality tests indicate that mutual causality between carbon emissions and economic growth exists in the short term, but not the long term. In order to achieve the goals of economic growth and carbon intensity reduction, it is necessary for China to actively participate in global carbon reduction activities, technological innovation and ecological civilization construction.

Natural Resources in Economies＇ Status Transition from ＇Periphery＇ to ＇Center ＇

This paper divides the history of global trade since 1000AD into three periods using Rahl Prebisch＇s center-periphery pattern and summarizes the effects of resource trade on periphery economies during each period. However, this paper argues that the resource curse paradox does not justify isolation between developing and developed countries. On the contrary, developing countries should be encouraged to integrate into the existing center-periphery pattern and achieve economic growth through resource trade. This paper supplements the existing literature＇s analysis of resource endowment＇s role in global trade and offers recommendations for resource-rich developing countries to avoid the resource curse, identify a viable path to development, and achieve sustainable development by harnessing natural resources more productively.

中国环保考核制度调整与经济增长方式转变

经济增长与环境污染之间的关系,是经济增长方式最直接的体现之一。首先分析城市经济增长率与企业二氧化硫排放量之间的关系,发现其在2005年前后发生了根本性转变:在2005年以前,二者高度正相关,而在2005年以后,这种相关性明显减弱。机制分析发现:出现这一转变的直接原因是在2005年及以后随着经济增长率的提高,企业更多地使用清洁能源代替非清洁能源;更深层的原因则是在2005年以前地方官员选择放松环境规制促进经济增长,而2005年及以后此动机因官员环保考核制度调整而受到抑制。进一步分析发现,重污染行业占比不同的城市在2005年及以后选择了不同的“清洁化”增长战略。分析表明,2005年环保考核制度调整使中国的经济增长方式发生了根本性转变。

The Relationship between Patterns of Economic Development and Increasing Carbon Emissions in Western China

With the implementation of the ＂Development of Western China＂ strategy, this region has become the fastest growing economic area in China. However, rapid economic growth has resulted in a substantial increase in carbon emissions and affected energy reduction goals. In order to effectively control the rapid increase in carbon emissions across western China, we need a comprehensively analyze the main factors causing these increases. Here, we analyze the relationship between economic development patterns and carbon emissions. The findings suggest that consumption upgrades and industrial transformation have a positive correlation with carbon emissions in this region. We then conducted an econometric FGLS analysis on the relationship and its transmission mechanism between economic growth and CO2 emissions with cross-province panel data from 1991 to 2009. A positive correlation was found, and the relationship is more significant after the implementation of the western development strategy. The influence coefficient of change in primary, secondary and tertiary industries is 16.4. The influence coefficient of increased share of heavy industry and extractive industry in the secondary industry is 14.3, and the influence coefficients of per-capita living expenditure and per capita traffic expenditure are 5.6 and 6.5. Traditional population size and income scale have a weak impact on carbon emissions, and the influence coefficients of population size and income scale are only 0.73 and 0.86. GDP increases have a second major impact on the carbon emissions. Energy intensity has a negative relationship with carbon emissions and urbanization level has a positive relationship （coefficients are -8.2 and 4.65）.

中国最终需求对拉美经济的拉动效应——基于全球价值链视角

新发展格局不是封闭的国内循环,而是开放的国内国际双循环。随着中国与拉美经贸合作跨越式发展,中国对拉美经济的积极影响日益加深。有鉴于此,测度和分析中国最终需求对拉美经济增长的拉动效应对中国构建新发展格局具有现实意义。本文基于全球价值链视角,在世界投入产出模型的基础上,使用OECD世界投入产出数据,测度了全球价值链中中国对拉美经济增长的需求拉动效应。研究认为:第一,1995—2018年,拉动率增长显著,中国最终需求每增长1%对拉美经济增长的拉动率由0.001 4%提升至0.025 3%,提升了17倍,且2018年中国的拉动率在拉美所有外部经济体中仅次于美国;第二,中国对拉美经济增长的拉动率中价值链依存度整体较高,上升趋势明显,在2000年之后始终保持在80%以上;第三,中国最终需求是中国对拉美经济增长拉动效应变化的决定性因素,中国经济增长将通过内循环到外循环有效拉动拉美经济增长。

新发展格局下国内国际循环测度及对经济增长的影响研究

在新发展格局背景下,基于2010—2021年30个省份构建国内和国际循环指标体系,采用熵权-Topsis法测度国内和国际循环发展水平指数,在此基础上,根据面板双向固定效应模型分析国内循环、国际循环、双循环以及双循环的平方项对经济增长的影响,并进行异质性和稳健性检验。经过分析得出结论,国内循环和国际循环指数呈现上升趋势,且发展水平较好的主要集中在经济发达地区,东部地区发展水平高于中部和西部地区;国内循环和双循环对经济增长有显著的正向影响,而双循环的平方项呈现负向影响。据此提出,加强国内外循环,优化产业结构,增加多样化进出口;实施区域差异化政策,重点发展欠发达地区;提升南北合作,实现资源优势互补;减少贸易壁垒,增加市场开放度;提升竞争力,开拓国际市场。

我国环境污染与经济发展空间格局分析

以2006年我国31个省(市、自治区)的环境和经济统计数据为基础,利用三次曲线拟合了各地区人均污染物指标与人均GDP的相关性,同时利用系统聚类分析方法,将不同省(市、自治区)按人均污染物指标和人均GDP的相关性分为5类,并通过计算各类别相关指标的空间自相关系数,揭示了不同类别中各省(市、自治区)环境污染和经济发展的空间相关性.结果表明:在空间尺度上,我国没有出现环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,经济越发达地区的环境污染越严重;在人均污染物指标和人均GDP的空间关系上,东南沿海经济较发达地区为正相关,广大中西部地区为随机分布,少数经济落后地区为负相关.

供给侧结构性改革:经济发展的必然选择

文本区分了经济增长的三种形式,指出改革开放30年中国处于全速的经济增长。进入新常态后,中国经济供求开始失衡,出现产能过剩,抑制了生产潜能的增长。让经济增长处于不断增长的生产潜能水平,必须进行供给侧结构性改革,以鼓励创新创业。供给侧结构性改革成功的前提是通过基础性的制度改革为人们提供稳定可预期的环境。文本首先认为,中国是一个转型经济,经济发展与凯恩斯主义和供给学派无关;最后利用经济增长理论预测,若供给侧结构性改革成功,中国经济可以维持相当长时间的中高速经济增长,最终和发达国家趋同。

新时期经济特区还要特下去

经济特区是在一定的地域范围内实行特殊政策的经济性区域,我国经济特区发展分传统经济特区和新特区两个阶段,前者发展受到挑战,后者发展势头迅猛;经济特区作为一种区域经济发展模式,对区域经济发展的影响通过极化效应和扩散效应来实现,极化效应表现为基于市场机制和特殊制度安排下的生产要素的聚集,扩散效应主要通过产业梯度转移机制、制度移植模仿机制、知识技术溢出机制发挥作用;经济特区应该继续"特"下去,一方面传统经济特区应主动求变,另一方面因地制宜促进经济特区发展的多样化,并适当保持各特区之间的政策差异。

市场化进程与我国经济增长方式——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

本文将全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献率作为经济增长方式的衡量指标,对1995—2010年我国经济增长方式的变化特征进行了分析。在此基础上利用省际面板数据,分别从全国和地区两个层面考察了市场化进程与经济增长方式的关系。研究表明:我国经济增长方式的粗放型特征不仅没有出现弱化趋势,反而存在加重迹象。在全国层面上,我国市场化总进程对经济增长方式的转变具有促进作用,各市场化分项进程对经济增长方式转变的推进作用,按经济非国有化、产品市场发育、政府减少经济干预、要素市场发育和健全经济法律制度的顺序依次增强。在地区层面上,沿海和内陆地区市场化总进程均有助于经济增长方式的转变,其中沿海地区的驱动力度相对较强,各市场化分项进程与经济增长方式的作用关系在这两个地区有不同表现。上述结论对于进一步推进我国市场化改革以加快经济增长方式转型具有重要的启示意义。

不同耕作模式下小麦玉米周年生产及土壤养分变化特征

2011—2013年进行定位试验,设置轮耕、深松/深松、深耕/常耕、深耕/深耕和常耕/常耕5个处理,研究了不同耕作模式下土壤养分动态特征和小麦玉米生长发育及其效益。结果表明,深松/深松和深耕/深耕处理显著提高了0~40 cm土层养分,土壤有机质含量增幅为2.21%~3.44%;碱解氮、速效磷和速效钾分别提高了11.19%,15.25%和11.40%,处理间差异显著。轮耕和深松/深松、深耕/深耕处理显著增加了冬小麦、夏玉米的中后期绿叶面积和生物量,其中轮耕处理比对照叶面积增加15.50%（小麦）和3.30%（玉米）,周年生物量增加12.59%,经济产量增加了9.89%,处理间差异达显著水平。不同耕作方式下冬小麦、夏玉米周年产量变化顺序为：轮耕〉深松/深松〉深耕/常耕〉深耕/深耕〉常耕/常耕。5种处理以轮耕处理增益最显著,为4 072.09元·hm-2,其他依次是深松/深松、深耕/常耕、深耕/深耕、常耕/常耕。在黄淮小麦玉米两熟制度下,以轮耕处理对增加产量、提高土壤养分和周年经济效益最佳。

中国省域经济增长模式评价:基于消费主导型指标体系的分析

在阐释消费主导型经济增长模式内涵的基础上,本文构建了包含经济自主、需求结构、消费水平、消费结构和消费环境指标在内的消费主导型指标体系。基于指标体系,计算出消费主导型分值,得分位于40~60为投资主导型,得分位于60~80为内需主导型,得分位于80~100为消费主导型。研究表明,总体上,中国经济增长模式为以投资为主的内需主导型。区域经济增长模式差异较大：东部地区属于以消费为主的内需主导型,中西部地区属于以投资为主的内需主导型。省域经济增长模式中,北京和上海为消费主导型;江苏、广东和浙江属于以消费为主的内需主导型;山东、辽宁等22个省属于以投资为主的内需主导型;新疆和西藏等4省为投资主导型。

经济集约化增长的一般均衡分析

本文在两时期代际交叠模型(OLG)的基础上建立了一个分析经济集约化增长的一般均衡分析模型。我们发现,在均衡时,经济增长的集约化程度等于劳动者报酬在总收入中所占有的比重,本文的实证研究表明这一结论基本符合发达国家的经验。结合发达国家以及新兴工业化国家经济增长方式转变的经验,在本文的最后给出了我国经济增长方式转变的政策建议。

产业结构调整与林业经济增长方式转变

中国林业粗放型的经济增长方式必须尽快加以转变 .要实现这个转变 ,产业结构调整是关键 .林业产业结构调整的目标是结构高级化和合理化 ,为此 ,应在加强森林资源培育的基础上 ,优化林业第二产业内部结构 .重点是培育林产加工业这一林业主导产业 ,并通过主导产业影响作用的发挥 ,既拉动林业第一产业发展 ,又推动第三产业增长 ,从而推进整个林业产业结构优化升级 。

新时期中国经济增长的空间格局

针对1998~2013年中国2 303个县域经济增长格局与变迁研究表明：县域经济空间关联格局相对较稳定,高高区呈团块式集中于东部沿海,带状式分布于内蒙地区,低低区散布中西部地区;县域增长时空关联特征及变化大体相一致,经济增长潜力或活力的环渤海、长江三角洲、珠江三角洲及内蒙古地区的县域单元LISA时间路径移动长度变化较大;中西部地区县域LISA时间路径长度较短,经济增长缺乏活力,而时间路径弯曲度最大的地区主要分布于缺乏稳定空间依赖方向的京九沿线、110°E附近及西藏部分县域。