Evaluation of oasis ecosystem risk by reliability theory in an arid area: A case study in the Shiyang River Basin, China

Ecosystem risk is a new concept in understanding environmental problems. It is important to study and develop quantitative methods for regional ecosystem risk analysis. In this study, some new indicators and methods for measuring oasis ecosystem risk were established using reliability theory. These indicators are linked to water resource, which is the key restricting factor in arid area oasis ecosystems. They have clear meanings and can also be compared in different arid area oases. A case study in the Liangzhou oasis of the Shiyang River Basin in China shows how to calculate these ecosystem risk indicators. The results of the case study are as follows： the reliability indicator, risk indicator, stability indicator, and integrated loss indicator of the Liangzhou oasis are 0.686, 0.314, 0.743, and 0.301, respectively. This means that the reliability degree of the oasis＇s ecosystem safety is 68.6%; the degree of risk that it is unsafe is 31.4%; the stability degree is 74.3%; and 30.1% of the oasis＇s area is supported by over-exploiting underground water and damaging the lower reaches of the ecosystem. This result can be used as a guide in controlling and managing ecosystem risk in the research area.

Paragenese of the vegetation in ecosystems contact zones (in Lake Baikal basin)

Phytocenoses in the ecosystems contact zones are characterized by a rather complex structural and dynamical more than one features and by specific development characters under definite physical and geographical conditions. Unlike zonal vegetation, such phytocenoses respond to all environment changes more rapidly. The structure of such phytocenoses allows to determine the way this or that scenarios of climate change would develop at any level of more than one ecosystems. A possibility to use the notion “paragenese” for characterization of phytocenoses under contrast conditions is considered. Paragenese is the development of phytocenoses which are not related to zonal vegetation types by their composition and structure. Probably, the communities from ecosystems contact zones are to be related to a particular “type” of vegetation. Phytocenoses in the contact of light coniferous taiga and extrazonal steppes, as well as relations between zonal forest-steppe at main areas of Lake Baikal basin served as examples for justification of use of the notion “paragenese” to characterize the development of such communities.

GIS-Based Vulnerability Assessment of the Semi-Arid Ecosystem to Land Degradation: Case Study of Sokoto-Rima Basin

Land degradation is one of the most ubiquitous environmental challenges affecting the semi-arid ecosystems of the world and the Sokoto-Rima basin is not immune to this. In this study, we evaluated vulnerability of the Sokoto-Rima basin to land degradation by combining remote sensing and geographic information system technologies. An appraisal model was developed for the identified nine variables, whose weights were ascertained by the analytical hierarchy process. Using this model, we examined the spatiotemporal distribution of vulnerability to land degradation stimulated by climate change from 2002 to 2015. Largely, the basin is extremely vulnerable to land degradation with roughly 88% of the land area in 2002, 2012 and 2015 while areas with low vulnerability were just 1.52%, 1.48% and 1.51% respectively. Geographically, there exists a north-south vulnerability index dichotomy as the index increases northwards. Also, integrated vulnerability index showed that the entire basin is getting exposed to the vagaries of climate change that stimulates land degradation. Large-scale resilience projects such as greening and integrated shelter-belts and woodlots can be implemented in the long run as existing ones are inadequate to address the observed degradation.

Ecosystem Service Flow Insights into Horizontal Ecological Compensation Standards for Water Resource: A Case Study in Dongjiang Lake Basin, China

Water supply services(WSSs) are critical for the regional water balance and water circulation, but relevant studies have not established the relationship between WSSs and human well-being. This research identifies the scope of areas that benefit from WSSs from an ecosystem service flow perspective. Moreover, the path and quantity of the flow of WSSs are simulated to provide a scientific theoretical basis for ecosystem service management and ecological compensation. The Dongjiang Lake Basin is a national priority river basin in China where ecological compensation pilot programmes concerning water resources are top priorities. Dongjiang Lake Basin experienced an increase and then a decrease in the overall supply of water, with an average net water supply of 1096–1500 mm for the years 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010. The water demand increased each year in service beneficiary areas(SBAs), varying from 387 to 580 mm. Overall, Dongjiang Lake Basin met the net water demands of the actual SBAs in the lower reaches, but a gap in the water supply and demand emerged gradually. This research provides an understanding of the functional mechanisms for the provision, demand and flow of WSSs and provides a scientific theoretical basis for ecosystem service management and ecological compensation.

The Impact of Ecosystem Functional Type Changes on the La Plata Basin Climate

In this paper, the effects of land cover changes on the climate of the La Plata Basin in southern South America are investigated using the Weather and Research Forecasting （WRF） Model configured on a 30/10- km two-way interactive nested grid. To assess the regional climate changes resulting from land surface changes, the standard land cover types are replaced by time-varying Ecosystem Functional Types （EFTs）, which is a newly devised land-cover classification that characterizes the spatial and interannual variability of surface vegetation dynamics. These variations indicate that natural and anthropogenic activities have caused changes in the surface physical parameters of the basin, such as albedo and roughness length, that contributed to regional climate changes. EFTs are obtained from functional attributes of vegetation computed from properties of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index （NDVI） to represent patches of the land surface with homogeneous energy and gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Four simulations are conducted, each experimental period ranging from September to November in two contrasting years, 1988 and 1998. The influence of an identical EFT change on the surface heat fluxes, 2-m temperature and humidity, 10-m winds, convective instabilities and large-scale moisture fluxes and precipitation are explored for 1988 （a dry year） and 1998 （a wet year）. Results show that the surface and atmospheric climate has a larger response to the same EFT changes in a dry year for 2-m temperature and 10-m wind; the response is larger in a wet year for 2-m water vapor mixing ratio, convective available potential energy, vertically integrated moisture fluxes and surface precipitation. For EFTs with high productivity and a weak seasonal cycle, the near- surface temperature during the spring of 1988 and 1998 increased by as much as I^C in the central and western portions of La Plata Basin. Additionally, for higher productivity EFTs, precipitation differences were generally positive in both dry and wet years, although the patterns are not uniform and exhibit certain patchiness with drier conditions.

Impacts of Overgrazing and Reclamation on Soil Resources in Rangeland Ecosystems in Huailai Basin, Hebei, China

The soil constituents and relations between the variation of soil resources and plant communities in three adjacent sites representing the overgrazing, reclamation and comparatively undisturbed communities respectively were quantified and examined in study area in Huailai Basin, Hebei Province, China. There have been significantly greater constituent of C, N, P in the soils of shrubland site. Corg, Ntotal, Navail and Pavail were between 1.18 and 3.90 times more concentrated in the soils of shrubland site in comparison with the other two sites. Although the Ptotal concentration was lower in shrubland soils than in overgrazed rangeland soils, the Pavail concentration, however, was significantly greater in the soils of shrubland site, and increased by 59.1% and even 289.6% in the soils of shrubland site comparing to those in the soils of range-land and millet field sites. Among the three sites, CV exceeding 40% were found for SO4, Cl, and F ion. The CV of organic carbon also exceeded 40% but only in the soils of millet field site. The highest CV were found for F, SO4 ion in the soils of shrubland and overgrazed rangeland sites, while for Cl and SO4 ion in those of millet field site. The results also showed that the introductions of shrubs are of vital importance for the accumulation of soil nutrients and maintenance of soil fertilities, and also for the restoration and reconstruction of desertified ecosystems.

AREAL DIFFERENTIATION AND CONSTRUCTION OF OASIS AGRICULTURAL ECOSYSTEM IN THE SHIYANG RIVER BASIN

On the basis of the study on areal differentiation of the natural environment of oasis agriculture ecosystems in the Shiyang River Basin, this paper comparatively analyzes the natural productivities, water economic benefits, production efficiency, ecological stabilities and developmental conditions of the Wuwei Oasis agricultural ecosystem in the middle reaches of the river basin and the Minqin Oasis agricultural ecosystem in the lower reaches. Under a same management level and investment of . material and energy, primary productiveness and economic benefits of the former are higher than those of the latter. Construction directions of Wuwei and Minqin oases should be different in order to alleviate the water- use contradiction between the middle and lower reaches. The construction objective of Wuwei Oasis should be efficient irrigated farming production system and Minqin Oasis should become a mixed forestry-pastoral-farming ecosystem taking ecological protection as its major function.

The Basin Water Resources Management System and Its Innovation in China

Water provides the origin of human survival and prosperity,and the basic resource for the maintenance of terrestrial eco-systems,their biodiversity,productivity and ecological services.With China’s recent,rapid growth both in population and economic development,the water shortage has become one of the most constraints on its ecological restoration and socio-economic development,especially in the arid inland regions of northwest China.At first glance,this water shortage in China appears to be a resource crisis.But second,an in-depth analysis reveals that the water shortage crisis arises mainly resulting from the poor water management system and operating mechanism that cannot facilitate fair allocation and efficient utilization of water resources both regionally and nationally and thus is viewed as a crisis of water manage-ment.The solution of China’s water shortage and low-efficient utilization problem will,in particular,require a fundamen-tal and substantial reform or innovation of the existing water management system and operating mechanism.In this paper,we address explicitly the problems existed in the current water management system,explore the basic theory of water re-sources management and provide some insights into the way how to establish a river basin based integrated water re-sources management system in China.

Vertical distribution and storage of soil organic and inorganic carbon in a typical inland river basin,Northwest China

Knowledge of soil carbon（C） distribution and its relationship with the environment can improve our understanding of its biogeochemical cycling and help to establish sound regional models of C cycling. However, such knowledge is limited in environments with complex landscape configurations. In this study, we investigated the vertical distribution and storage of soil organic carbon（SOC） and soil inorganic carbon（SIC） in the 10 representative landscapes（alpine meadow, subalpine shrub and meadow, mountain grassland, mountain forest, typical steppe, desert steppe, Hexi Corridor oases cropland, Ruoshui River delta desert, Alxa Gobi desert, and sandy desert） with contrasting bioclimatic regimes in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. We also measured the 87 Sr/86 Sr ratio in soil carbonate to understand the sources of SIC because the ratio can be used as a proxy in calculating the contribution of pedogenic inorganic carbon（PIC） to total SIC. Our results showed that SOC contents generally decreased with increasing soil depth in all landscapes, while SIC contents exhibited more complicated variations along soil profiles in relation to pedogenic processes and parent materials at the various landscapes. There were significant differences of C stocks in the top meter among different landscapes, with SOC storage ranging from 0.82 kg C/m^2 in sandy desert to 50.48 kg C/m^2 in mountain forest and SIC storage ranging from 0.19 kg C/m^2 in alpine meadow to 21.91 kg C/m^2 in desert steppe. SIC contributed more than 75% of total C pool when SOC storage was lower than 10 kg C/m^2, and the proportion of PIC to SIC was greater than 70% as calculated from Sr isotopic ratio, suggesting the critical role of PIC in the C budget of this region. The considerable variations of SOC and SIC in different landscapes were attributed to different pedogenic environments resulted from contrasting climatic regimes, parent materials and vegetation types. This study provides an evidence for a general trade-off pattern between SOC and SIC, showing the compensatory effects of environmental conditions（especially climate） on SOC and SIC formation in these landscapes. This is largely attributed to the fact that the overall decrease in temperature and increase in precipitation from arid deserts to alpine mountains simultaneously facilitate the accumulation of SOC and depletion of SIC.

The effects of the identity of shrub species on the distribution and diversity of ground arthropods in a sandy desert ecosystem of northwestern China

Shrub is an important factor on structuring ground arthropod communities in desert ecosystems. In this study, in order to determine how shrubs and their species influence ground arthropod distribution patterns in a sandy desert scrubland dominated by two different shrub species, Calligonum mongolicum and Nitraria sphaerocarpa, the ground arthropods were sampled with pitfall traps during spring, summer and autumn. At the community level, total arthropod abundance was shown to be significantly higher under shrubs than in intershrub bare areas in spring; similar patterns occurred in terms of the richness of arthropod groups in the spring and over three seasons, suggesting season-specific shrub presence effects on arthropod activity. In addition, more arthropods were found under N. sphaerocarpa shrubs than under C. rnongolicum shrubs in autumn, suggesting season-specific effects of shrub species of arthropod activity, whereas more arthropods taxa were captured under C. mongoIicum than N. sphaerocarpa. At the trophic group level, the abundances of predator and herbivore arthropods were significantly greater under shrubs than in intershrub bare habitats, whereas herbivore arthropods were more abundant under N. sphaerocarpa than C. rnongolicum, and an opposite rule was detected for predator arthropods At the family level, the mean abundances of Carabidae, Curculionidae, Gnaphosidae and Lycosidae were significantly higher in the shrub microhabitats than in the intershrub bare habitat, there was no significant difference between habitats on the mean abundances of Formicidae and Tenebrionidae. The study results suggested that shrub presence and shrub species variation are important determinants of ground arthropod assemblages in this desert ecosystem, but the responses of ar- thropods differed among trophic and taxonomic groups.

Quantifying land degradation in the Zoige Basin,NE Tibetan Plateau using satellite remote sensing data

Considerable efforts have been dedicated to desertification research in the arid and semi-arid drylands of central Asia. However,there are few quantitative studies in conjunction with proper qualitative evaluation concerning land degradation and aeolian activity in the alpine realm. In this study,spectral information from two Landsat-5 TM scenes(04.08.1994 and 28.07.2009,respectively) was combined with reference information obtained in the field to run supervised classifications of eight landscape types for both time steps. Subsequently,the temporal and spatial patterns of the alpine wetlands/grasslands evolutions in the Zoige Basin were quantified and assessed based on these two classification maps. The most conspicuous change is the sharp increase of ~627 km^2 degraded meadow. Concerning other land-covers,shallow wetland increases ~107 km^2 and aeolian sediments(mobile dunes and sand sheets) have an increase of ~30 km^2. Considering the deterioration,an obvious decrease of ~440 km^2 degraded wetland can be observed. Likewise,decrease of deep wetland(~78 km^2),humid meadow(~80 km^2) and undisturbed meadow(~88 km^2) were determined. These entire evolution matrixes undoubtedly hint a deteriorating tendency of the Zoige Basin ecosystem,which is characterized by significantly declined proportion of intact wetlands,meadow,rangeland and a considerable increase ofdegraded meadow and larger areas of mobile dunes. In particular,not only temporal alteration of the landcover categories,the spatial and topographical characteristics of the land degradation also deserves more attention. In the alpine rangelands,the higher terraces of the river channels along with their slopes are more liable to the degradation and desertification. This tendency has significantly impeded the nomadic and agriculture activities. The set of anthropozoogenic factors encompassing enclosures,overgrazing and trampling,rodent damaging and exceedingly ditching in the wetlands are assumed to be the main controlling mechanisms for the landscape degradation. A suite of strict protection policies is urgent and indispensable for self-regulation and restoration of the alpine meadow ecosystem. Controlling the size of livestock,less ditching in the rangeland,and the launching of a more strict nature reserve management by adjacent Ruoergai,Maqu and Hongyuan Counties would be practical and efficacious in achieving these objectives.

黄河流域陆地生态系统碳储量测算及其影响因素

准确估算陆地生态系统碳储量,科学制定生态环境保护和土地利用政策,对促进区域低碳可持续发展,实现“碳中和”目标具有重要意义。基于大量碳密度样点数据,将其与生态地理分区和土地利用类型图空间叠置,采用克里金插值法得到黄河流域碳密度空间分布数据集。应用InVEST模型对2000年、2010年和2020年黄河流域陆地生态系统碳储量的时空演变测度,提高了碳储量估算结果的准确性。利用Pearson相关性分析和多尺度地理加权回归模型(MGWR)对自然、社会经济和景观格局指数等因素对县级行政单元尺度单位面积碳储量的影响进行分析。主要结论如下:(1)黄河流域碳密度空间分布呈西部大于东部、东部地区自东南向西北递减的格局;(2)2000—2020年黄河流域陆地生态系统碳储量增加0.02%(7.011×10~9—7.012×10~9t),空间分布与碳密度相同,空间集聚特征显著,“高高集聚区”主要分布在黄河上游西南部的青藏高原地区,“低低集聚区”主要分布在黄河上游北部和黄河下游大部分地区;(3)Pearson相关性分析得出与碳储量呈正相关的影响因素为Pr(降水)、NDVI(归一化植被指数)和Slope(坡度);呈负相关的影响因素为TEM(温度)、HAI(人类影响指数)、SHDI(香农多样性指数)、DN(夜间灯光数据像素值)和PPOD(人口密度)。(4)MGWR模型得出TEM、Pr、NDVI和SHDI空间异质性强,HAI在2010年后异质性强;Slope空间异质性中等;DN和PPOD为全局尺度变量,空间影响平稳;(5)MGWR模型得出NDVI对黄河流域县级单位面积碳储量作用强度最大。NDVI、Slope对县级单位面积碳储量的影响呈正效应,TEM、HAI、DN和PPOD呈负效应,Pr、SHDI呈正、负双向效应。

A Risk-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach to Evaluating Transboundary Water Development—The Case of Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies.

黄土高原典型地貌区生态系统格局与过程研究

【目的】为检验黄土高原生态恢复成效并进行生态系统格局优化,以董志塬(典型的黄土高原沟壑区)和延河流域(典型的黄土丘陵沟壑区)为例,对比研究了黄土高原不同地貌单元的生态系统格局特征及其变化过程。【方法】基于遥感和地面调查数据,采用景观生态学方法和空间分析方法,评估近30a来黄土高原沟壑区不同地貌条件下的生态系统格局时空变化特征。【结果】农田、森林和草地是黄土高原沟壑区最主要的生态系统类型。其中,高塬沟壑区以农田生态系统为主导,而丘陵沟壑区以草原生态系统为主导;主导生态系统类型同时也是平均斑块规模最高的,但随着人类活动干扰强度的增加,生态系统的破碎化程度逐渐增大。【结论】董志塬植被恢复工程先于延河流域,且初期生态恢复力度较大,而延河流域生态系统类型间的动态演化作用更强烈,生态恢复效果更持久。

1861-2010年巢湖流域气候和生产力要素数据集

巢湖是我国五大湖泊之一,人类活动历史长久,并对流域生态环境和湖泊水体造成了重要影响。尤其近百年在全球变暖背景下,巢湖流域工农业发展和城镇化加剧了流域植被退化,导致了水体富营养化、生态环境破坏等严重环境问题。本研究利用实测和模拟的多源数据,建立了高分辨率、长时段的生态系统气候和植被生长数据集,通过采用薄板光顺样条空间插值方法,以STASH软件为基础开发生物气候软件建立了气候数据,包括1861-2010年的高分辨率气温、降水、日照百分比、最冷月均温、最暖月均温、大于0℃积温和大于5℃积温数据,通过机器学习方法结合NPP算法模块计算得到了相同时期的植被数据,包括植被净初级生产力(NPP)、生态系统净生产力(NEP)和叶面积指数(LAI)数据,并进行了质量控制分析。本数据集为区域潜在植被重建及其植被变迁定量研究提供了模型数据,也为准确地评估气候变化对巢湖流域生态环境的影响提供了基础数据,同时也可以作为工业革命以来中国区域典型流域生态系统数据集建设的参考案例。

城市蔓延对生态系统服务流的影响研究进展及对长江流域的启示

全面梳理城市蔓延对生态系统服务流的影响研究现状,有利于促进区域社会经济可持续发展。综述了城市蔓延对生态系统服务流的影响研究,结果表明:城市蔓延对生态系统服务流的影响研究仍处于起步阶段。城市蔓延通过载体传递和流动路径两方面改变了生态系统服务流的流量、流速和流向,导致生态系统服务流总量的减少和空间异质性的增加;城市蔓延的单项指标变化、城市蔓延的尺度以及城市蔓延的多情景模拟是探索城市蔓延对生态系统服务流影响过程的主要切入点;城市蔓延过程中引起的生态系统服务流扩散效应主要源于土地利用类型的变化和人类居住模式的改变。已有研究在一定程度上解释了城市蔓延对生态系统服务流的影响,但在揭示影响机理、剖析影响过程、评估影响效应以及探索生态系统服务流合理分配以促进城市可持续发展等方面的研究还存在较大空白。在此前提下,未来应基于“机理揭示-影响模拟-效应评估”的研究思路,建立长江流域城市蔓延对生态系统服务流影响研究框架,探索长江流域城市可持续发展与生态系统服务流的合理分配方案,实现长江流域生态保护与社会发展的协同共进。

鱼粪化石特征对晚三叠世湖泊生态系统的启示——以鄂尔多斯盆地南部长7段为例

粪化石是一类重要的遗迹化石,其内含物常保存被捕食生物的残余及一些微生物、软组织甚至古DNA信息,对解读地质历史时期的湖泊生态信息有重要意义。鄂尔多斯盆地南部铜川地区三叠系延长组长7段下部页岩的鱼粪石,其为略扁平的纺锤形化石,尖而薄,表面有明显的螺旋纹。观察粪化石的内含物情况,发现其主要由未完全消化的动植物残体组成,包括鱼鳞、骨骼碎片,以及以含磷白云岩为生长基的大量矿物聚集体。鱼粪化石形成于开放型淡水湖泊中的半深湖—深湖区,大部分保存完好,属于典型的原地埋葬。该鱼粪的生物源为一种大型的、鱼肠内具有较多螺旋瓣的肉食性鱼类。晚三叠世湖泊中出现了复杂的多层营养系统,主要由生产者、消费者构成,食物链较为复杂。该研究成果表明经历二叠纪末生物大灭绝的晚三叠世多层级营养湖泊生态系统已经基本恢复。另外,微生物的参与及泥质含量较高的厌氧环境使得粪化石保存完好,可为恢复和重建晚三叠世卡尼期湖泊生态系统提供重要依据。

巴马县盘阳河流域国土整治景观格局与生态效应评价

本研究基于巴马县盘阳河流域整治前后的土地利用现状数据,通过景观格局指数刻画分析区域景观格局变化,同时基于当量因子法构建当地单位面积生态服务价值系数表,测算分析区域生态系统服务价值及变化特征。结果表明:一是2016—2018年林地面积减少,其作为优势斑块类型的支配地位下降,景观的连通性降低;建设用地扩张迅速有集聚发展的趋势。二是巴马县盘阳河流域整体景观的破碎度和异质性增强,各类斑块形状趋于复杂。三是区域气候调节和水文调节功能较为突出,林地作为优势地类生态贡献率最高。四是研究区域生态系统服务价值整体略有下降,水资源供给、气候调节和净化环境等功能的价值下降最为明显,美学景观功能价值略有上升。

基于生态系统服务的青海湖流域生态风险评估及其空间异质性影响因素分析

青海湖流域是我国西北部的“气候调节器”和“空气加湿器”,其生态风险管控对青藏高原乃至我国西部的生态保护和可持续发展都有着重要意义。基于InVEST模型对青海湖流域2005年、2010年、2015年、2020年产水量、土壤保持、生境质量和碳储存4项生态系统服务进行定量评估,借助熵权—TOPSIS法,以生态系统服务的相对损失量来构建区域生态风险指数,并运用地理探测器和地理加权回归模型分析自然—社会要素对青海湖流域生态风险空间异质性的影响。结果表明:(1)2005—2020年青海湖流域产水量、土壤保持、生境质量和碳储存均呈现波动增加的趋势,增幅分别为10.17%、18.36%、9.84%、3.47%,各项生态系统服务的高值区分布于河流上游的河源区和植被覆盖率高的林地区域;(2)2005—2020年青海湖流域生态风险较高,但呈现波动降低的趋势。高风险区主要位于湖区、环湖区、布哈河河谷以及流域西北部;(3)青海湖流域生态风险的空间格局受地形及高程因子主导,但人为干扰度的影响力呈逐年上升趋势。驱动因子交互作用的解释力显著高于单因子;(4)主要驱动因子对研究区生态风险的作用方向及强度存在明显的空间分异特征,坡度呈正相关,年平均气温呈负相关,归一化植被指数(NDVI)和人为干扰度呈现出正负两种效应,但以正向效应为主。研究结果对青海湖流域生态风险管控和高原生态环境保护有一定借鉴意义。

黄河流域生态系统服务价值时空异质性及驱动因素分析

【目的】在黄河流域生态恢复背景下,研究生态系统服务价值(ESV)的时空动态演变特征及其驱动因素,为可持续发展提供理论参考。【方法】基于2001—2020年20期的黄河流域土地利用数据,计算黄河流域ESV,利用空间自相关和探索性时空数据分析,揭示黄河流域ESV的时空分异动态特征,并引入时空地理加权回归模型探究黄河流域ESV时空分异的驱动因素。【结果】(1)2001—2020年黄河流域ESV整体呈上升趋势,生态系统服务中调节服务价值所占比重最大。不同土地利用类型中,草地和林地所提供的生态服务价值最高。(2)黄河流域ESV空间上存在显著正相关。大多数地区,局部空间自相关指标时间路径的相对长度和弯曲度较小,结构比较稳定,但空间依赖效应较弱。ESV移动方向中负向协同增长占比最大,呈低速增长特征。2001—2020年ESV时空凝聚概率超过80%,说明黄河流域ESV局部空间格局呈现相对锁定状态。(3)流域ESV驱动因素中,年降雨量主要起负向作用,年均气温和植被覆盖则主要起正向作用,而人口密度与夜间灯光指数的影响作用相对较弱。【结论】黄河流域ESV增长现状相对稳定,短期内较难改变,在影响ESV变化的因素中自然因素起主导作用。